Will the real Red Sox please stand up? I repeat, will the real Red Sox please stand up?

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Are guys that would fall into the "Three True Outcome" type of players more likely to have a shitty BABip? Wondering- if their swing is big that it's more likely in a scenario that they don't get a full connection to a pitch that it's more likely to be a weak pop-up?
 

JimD

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Dalbec the hero on Thursday, Arauz last night. Maybe the Sox are finally being blessed with a little bit of good luck after everything going horribly wrong for such a sustained stretch.
 

cantor44

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Provided the team is essentially healthy the rest of the way, it kinda feels like as ERod goes so might the team go. He's a real wildcard in the proceedings.

Seems like you know what Sale, Eovaldi, Houck, Pivetta will bring, for better or worse. The offense has enough that when at full strength, they're going to score. The bullpen maybe a wild card, too, but even if you remove Barnes, with Whitlock and Ottavino at the end of game, maybe that can get by. Especially if they get quality starts from the starters. Which brings us back to Erod.

He if he's cooking he's also the number 3 option in the playoffs and if pitching like Good 2021 Erod, well, suddenly that's a nice looking playoff rotation. If he's Bad 2021 Erod for most of the rest of the way, that makes the road much harder.
 
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CanvasAlley

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Provided the team is essentially healthy the rest of the way, it kinda feels like as ERod goes so might the team go. He's a real wildcard in the proceedings.

Seems like you know what Sale, Eovaldi, Houck, Pivetta will bring, for better or worse. The offense has enough that when at full strength, they're going to score. The bullpen maybe a wild card, too, but even if you remove Barnes, with Whitlock and Ottavino at the end of game, maybe that can get by. Especially if they get quality starts from the starters. Which brings up back to Erod.

He if he's cooking he's also the number 3 option in the playoffs and if pitching like Good 2021 Erod, well, suddenly that's a nice looking playoff rotation. If he's Bad 2021 Erod for most of the rest of the way, that makes the road much harder.
I completely agree with this. Our window for demonstrating this grows narrower by the day.
 
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The other huge benefit of an effective Erod is that it let's you move Houck to the bullpen for the playoffs. A top 3 of Sale, Erod and Eoavoldi, with Pivetta as the emergency 4th starter, gives you Houck, Whitlock, Ottavino and Taylor as reliable arms. If either Barnes or Sawamura can come back around then the bullpen is at least decent.
 

cantor44

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The other huge benefit of an effective Erod is that it let's you move Houck to the bullpen for the playoffs. A top 3 of Sale, Erod and Eoavoldi, with Pivetta as the emergency 4th starter, gives you Houck, Whitlock, Ottavino and Taylor as reliable arms. If either Barnes or Sawamura can come back around then the bullpen is at least decent.
Yes, you could that ..
 

YTF

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The other huge benefit of an effective Erod is that it let's you move Houck to the bullpen for the playoffs. A top 3 of Sale, Erod and Eoavoldi, with Pivetta as the emergency 4th starter, gives you Houck, Whitlock, Ottavino and Taylor as reliable arms. If either Barnes or Sawamura can come back around then the bullpen is at least decent.
ATM one of these things doesn't belong here. Like a lot of guys, Otto's hit a rough patch. Even during part of the season where he's had success, some of those outings were adventurous to say the least. In the months of July and August he's appeared in 20 games and pitched 19 innings. In those 19 innings he's given up 19 hits, 11 BB, hit 3 batters and has given up 10 earned runs. I have no idea if any inherited runners have scored off him. To be fair, just 2 of those earned came in his 10 August appearances. He's there and he's going to be used, but right now I can't consider him to be a reliable arm.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Taylor hasn’t been particularly good in July or August either.

Don’t think you really need to worry about a playoff rotation for awhile- you need to win a WC game and then the divisional round before you have to truly think about your #3-4 starters. Good problem to have but cross that bridge when we get to it.
 

cantor44

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Taylor hasn’t been particularly good in July or August either.

Don’t think you really need to worry about a playoff rotation for awhile- you need to win a WC game and then the divisional round before you have to truly think about your #3-4 starters. Good problem to have but cross that bridge when we get to it.
ATM one of these things doesn't belong here. Like a lot of guys, Otto's hit a rough patch. Even during part of the season where he's had success, some of those outings were adventurous to say the least. In the months of July and August he's appeared in 20 games and pitched 19 innings. In those 19 innings he's given up 19 hits, 11 BB, hit 3 batters and has given up 10 earned runs. I have no idea if any inherited runners have scored off him. To be fair, just 2 of those earned came in his 10 August appearances. He's there and he's going to be used, but right now I can't consider him to be a reliable arm.
Strange things happen in the playoffs. The 2003 team's pen struggled all season, then became incredibly effective in the playoffs (hence, the irony of Little keeping Pedro in the game). As was just pointed out, Lowe had a terrible regular season in 2004, then really came through in the post season ...couldn't have won without him, actually, despite initially being bumped from the post season rotation.
 

nattysez

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This upcoming stretch is brutal:
3 more @ TB
3 v CLE
3 v TB
3 @ CWS
3 @ SEA

I expect the A's to tie things back up in the WC by mid-September. Fortunately, the Sox have 6 with BAL, 3 with Natstown and 2 with the Mets in late September, so aside from 3 with the MFY, they should be well-positioned for a late-season surge.

The Sox really need SEA and OAK to spend September beating each other up. If either team gets hot, the Sox are going to have a tough time making the WC.
 

geoduck no quahog

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I imagine we all agree that the target now is to make the 2nd WC and pray. The team's decimated and regardless of shitty pitching and defense, the Red Sox are not going to beat other teams when scoring 3 runs or less. September's going to be brutal, but the goal is to perform better than the A's or the Mariners.The White Sox/Mariners away games from 10-15 September are pretty critical, eh? Hopefully the White Sox will be in coasting mode.

This is what stinks though - the A's play the Mariners 7 more times in September (4 home / 3 away). That's going to be real scoreboard watching because everything depends on the relative standings going into September 20. Splitting that series 4/3 sounds good at the outset, but if one or the other is more threatening to the Red Sox standings...

This is not the way we thought the season would end. The Red Sox in control of their own destiny, but that destiny swinging toward missing the playoffs.

The final turn happens on 10 September and we'll be watching to see who has the pole position and/or speed in the final stretch. I don't think confidence is very high considering the IL situation.
 

cantor44

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I imagine we all agree that the target now is to make the 2nd WC and pray. The team's decimated and regardless of shitty pitching and defense, the Red Sox are not going to beat other teams when scoring 3 runs or less. September's going to be brutal, but the goal is to perform better than the A's or the Mariners.The White Sox/Mariners away games from 10-15 September are pretty critical, eh? Hopefully the White Sox will be in coasting mode.

This is what stinks though - the A's play the Mariners 7 more times in September (4 home / 3 away). That's going to be real scoreboard watching because everything depends on the relative standings going into September 20. Splitting that series 4/3 sounds good at the outset, but if one or the other is more threatening to the Red Sox standings...

This is not the way we thought the season would end. The Red Sox in control of their own destiny, but that destiny swinging toward missing the playoffs.

The final turn happens on 10 September and we'll be watching to see who has the pole position and/or speed in the final stretch. I don't think confidence is very high considering the IL situation.
IF there's any hope is that the schedule gets relatively soft in the second half of September (11 games vs. Baltimore, Nats, Mets) and it's possible the team will FINALLY be playing at full strength at that time.

Let's see if they can survive the gauntlet of TB/CWS/SEA with a depleted roster. If they can somehow play .500 ball in here ...

There's still a wide range here. Very well could miss the playoffs. But also might surprise and make a post season run. I can't remember a recent Sox team whose floor and ceiling were so far apart ...
 

OurF'ingCity

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But also might surprise and make a post season run. I can't remember a recent Sox team whose floor and ceiling were so far apart ...
If they manage to squeak in as the second wild card, sure they could get lucky in a single game and make it to the ALDS. But I’m honestly struggling to picture them going any further than that - their defense and bullpen suck, and that’s pretty much the antithesis of a team primed for postseason success.
 

cantor44

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If they manage to squeak in as the second wild card, sure they could get lucky in a single game and make it to the ALDS. But I’m honestly struggling to picture them going any further than that - their defense and bullpen suck, and that’s pretty much the antithesis of a team primed for postseason success.
Yes, the defense sucks. But with Hernandez in CF and Arroyo at second it gets better (in fact, the outfield defense becomes quite good). For the sake of defense, especially against righties, I hope Cora would sit either JD or Dalbec (rather than put Schwarber or JD in the outfield), and subsequently keep the best defense out there ...pitchers can turn it around in the playoffs. 2003 as an example:

Regular Season
Timlin 3.55 1.028 WHIP
Embree 4.25 1.182 WHIP
Williamson 6.20 1.426 WHIP

Post Season
Timlin 0.00 9.2 IP 1 H 2 BB 11 K
Embree 0.00 6.2 IP 4 H 1 K
Williamson 1.13 8 IP 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB 14 K

Total 24.1 IP 8 H, 5 BB, 26 K ... for a .5342 WHIP

The anecdotal experience was that they were all lights out - not lucky - in their appearances. The pen had been the achilles heal all season, and then suddenly it was a strength (hence the irony of Little keeping Pedro in the game).

As a starter Derek Lowe pulled a similar rabbit out of a hat, with a 5.42 regular season ERA, and a 1.86 post season ERA with some very high leverage innings.

You know, if a few guys get hot .....

Don't wanna seem like a pollyanna (I'm usually pessimistic), but it's not out of the question ...
 

scottyno

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If they manage to squeak in as the second wild card, sure they could get lucky in a single game and make it to the ALDS. But I’m honestly struggling to picture them going any further than that - their defense and bullpen suck, and that’s pretty much the antithesis of a team primed for postseason success.
Everyone thought the 2018 bullpen sucked too, until the playoffs when they didn't, the current bullpen (once guys get back from COVID) is stronger than that one. If they make the playoffs the starters instantly become part of the bullpen, which combined with the potential for Sale Eovaldi Rodriguez starting it isn't hard to see them having a decent shot in a series.
 

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Everyone thought the 2018 bullpen sucked too, until the playoffs when they didn't, the current bullpen (once guys get back from COVID) is stronger than that one. If they make the playoffs the starters instantly become part of the bullpen, which combined with the potential for Sale Eovaldi Rodriguez starting it isn't hard to see them having a decent shot in a series.
2013 bullpen was basically Koji, Tazawa, and...Breslow. And then some starters joined the fray, like Doubront and Lackey.
 

geoduck no quahog

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Guys guys GUYS.

Brad Peacock is starting tonight. Season saved!

View: https://twitter.com/TomCaron/status/1432796553425657857?s=20


Oh. A guy who got torched in AAA and who will be pitching on 3 days' rest.

Never mind.
I am now officially calling out Cora bullshit.

Sale should be pitching tonight with the rotation as planned: Eovaldi and Roriguez to close the series with Houck opening against Cleveland. The extra day rest crap needs to be over. Saving arms for the playoffs is, well...sub-optimal right now.
 

YTF

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Who the fuck is making this decision? Pitch the damned starters! Call up Seabold if you feel they need 5 days rest!
Yep, this one is a head scratcher for me. I get that they don't want to rush Seabold to the bigs but this is the perfect time to get him a start. Cliche', I know, but every game really is a must win when you consider the defensive woes, the state of the pitching staff and he fact that covid seems to claim one or two more players from the roster each day. If Peacock was the absolute only option available, well yeah you throw him out there, but he's not. FWIW, Seabold last pitched on the 21st, so I'm not sure if there is something going on that we don't know about. Is he part of the taxi squad that has been traveling with the team?
 

chawson

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Anyone know where Peacock’s velocity was in Columbus? It was missing last year as he was pummeled, but if he’s back up around 92-93 I’d say he’s got a good chance of being the 2019 version and give us 5 decent innings. The fact that we tee off against Yarbrough (.430 wOBA this year) has me optimistic.
 

Rovin Romine

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Yep, this one is a head scratcher for me. I get that they don't want to rush Seabold to the bigs but this is the perfect time to get him a start. Cliche', I know, but every game really is a must win when you consider the defensive woes, the state of the pitching staff and he fact that covid seems to claim one or two more players from the roster each day. If Peacock was the absolute only option available, well yeah you throw him out there, but he's not. FWIW, Seabold last pitched on the 21st, so I'm not sure if there is something going on that we don't know about. Is he part of the taxi squad that has been traveling with the team?
He pitched on the 29th and got lit up: https://www.milb.com/gameday/bisons-vs-red-sox/2021/07/29/645991#game_state=final,game_tab=box,game=645991
 

Rovin Romine

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Anyone know where Peacock’s velocity was in Columbus? It was missing last year as he was pummeled, but if he’s back up around 92-93 I’d say he’s got a good chance of being the 2019 version and give us 5 decent innings. The fact that we tee off against Yarbrough (.430 wOBA this year) has me optimistic.
He pitched 5 innings this year in the minors. Once. 79 pitches thrown. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=peacoc001bra&type=pgl&year=2021

That was three days ago. So let's hope there's a recency bias.
 

Sin Duda

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I'll take the "under" on 5 inning pitched. I'd take the "under" on 4 innings pitched. I'd likely take the "under" on 3 innings pitched. I'd be 50/50 on the "under" for 2 innings pitched.
 

chawson

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InsideTheParker

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Maybe the Sox are finally being blessed with a little bit of good luck after everything going horribly wrong for such a sustained stretch.
Provided the team is essentially healthy the rest of the way, it kinda feels like as ERod goes so might the team go.
Remember this? It seems as though any luck the Sox might have glimpsed has evaporated. So many C-19 positives rule out the post-season, I fear.
(Now, after the Sox win the World Series, you can quote the above back at me.)
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Yep, this one is a head scratcher for me. I get that they don't want to rush Seabold to the bigs but this is the perfect time to get him a start. Cliche', I know, but every game really is a must win when you consider the defensive woes, the state of the pitching staff and he fact that covid seems to claim one or two more players from the roster each day. If Peacock was the absolute only option available, well yeah you throw him out there, but he's not. FWIW, Seabold last pitched on the 21st, so I'm not sure if there is something going on that we don't know about. Is he part of the taxi squad that has been traveling with the team?
So what is the situation with Seabold? This has me nervous
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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I am now officially calling out Cora bullshit.

Sale should be pitching tonight with the rotation as planned: Eovaldi and Roriguez to close the series with Houck opening against Cleveland. The extra day rest crap needs to be over. Saving arms for the playoffs is, well...sub-optimal right now.
They’re not saving arms for the post season, they’re saving arms for next year.

Lately, it’s perpetually Christmas Eve with this club and it’s always next year.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Peacock’s start went about as well as predicted. When this team implodes they certainly don’t do it halfway. They’re barely a major league team at this point and everyone associated with this organization should be mortified. A completely amateur performance.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Cora’s on a one year deal, with a club option. He’s definitely coming back, right? Should I be embarrassed to even ask that question?
 

scottyno

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Peacock’s start went about as well as predicted. When this team implodes they certainly don’t do it halfway. They’re barely a major league team at this point and everyone associated with this organization should be mortified. A completely amateur performance.
You saw them win 6 of 9 against bad teams right? I mean, maybe you didn't since not surprisingly you only seem to post when they lose, but calling them barely a minor league team is pretty ridiculous.
 

Bertha

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This is getting to be Casey Stengel Mets level of inept. Seemingly every game there are numerous physical and mental errors. The baserunning is ridiculous, and the fielding is even worse. How many times have we seen Dalbec whiff on a throw to first? Now a fairly easy cutoff, one step to his left. Between these plays and his prolific swing and miss skills, I wonder if his eyesight is good enough for this level.

verdugo has had a few bad looks recently. This is from a guy who is usually animated and energetic. Lazy throw to SS that allows runner on 1st to reach 2nd on a routine fly out.

I have been pro-Cora all along, but struggling to remain that way, as we see no visible progress in improving fundamental play and decision making. He does not seem to have a different gear for adversity. He is a player’s manager, and seems to have no solutions.

Vazquez is probably the single worst culprit in terms of had decision making. I do not care if Plawecki has 100% steal rate against him, how can it be any worse?
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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15% of players and on-field personnel could be as few as 5-6 people, you have no idea who or what their percentage is other than it's under 85, but of course you've decided that all 10 must be stupid and selfish.
No. I’ve decided that the unusually large number of unvaxxed players on the team, large even in the shockingly ignorant world of MLB since most other teams are above that line, are stupid and selfish.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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This is getting to be Casey Stengel Mets level of inept. Seemingly every game there are numerous physical and mental errors. The baserunning is ridiculous, and the fielding is even worse. How many times have we seen Dalbec whiff on a throw to first? Now a fairly easy cutoff, one step to his left. Between these plays and his prolific swing and miss skills, I wonder if his eyesight is good enough for this level.

verdugo has had a few bad looks recently. This is from a guy who is usually animated and energetic. Lazy throw to SS that allows runner on 1st to reach 2nd on a routine fly out.

I have been pro-Cora all along, but struggling to remain that way, as we see no visible progress in improving fundamental play and decision making. He does not seem to have a different gear for adversity. He is a player’s manager, and seems to have no solutions.

Vazquez is probably the single worst culprit in terms of had decision making. I do not care if Plawecki has 100% steal rate against him, how can it be any worse?
Something is up with Vazquez. He’s so out of it that there must be something behind the scenes that’s affecting his play,
 

CR67dream

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Everyone, Nip said quite clearly this morning that the next conversation about vaccine status outside of V&N would lead to extreme sanctions. I do not want to see that happen. In case anyone missed that warning, this conversation belongs in V&N. There's even a thread there for it already.
 

Bertha

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Vaz also seems to always have trouble picking up foul balls lately. Not just at the Trop, but seems to have become a constant issue recently.