Will There Be MLB in 2020?

JCizzle

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@TheGazelle @jon abbey If I could sum up my points in an rephrased way......I want both sides to shut up and hammer a deal out. The tweets and leaks are making them both look horrible.
I definitely agree that Snell didn't do himself many favors. On the other hand, it's hard to argue with Scherzer's "open up the books" argument. I think for guys like Snell, they are probably trying to be a normal 20 something dude on Twitch locked down in quarantine, but doesnt realize everything he says will be amplified.
 

jon abbey

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I think for guys like Snell, they are probably trying to be a normal 20 something dude on Twitch locked down in quarantine, but doesnt realize everything he says will be amplified.
I mean, he is 27 years old, he won a Cy Young while being paid close to a minimum salary, and now finally this year he is starting to get paid closer to what he is worth and the owners propose to take a lot of that away claiming poverty. It's got to be pretty freaking frustrating. He does have a bit of Papelbon in him but still, has to be so frustrating to be one of the few best in the world at what you do in a multi-billion dollar sport, know that your arm could snap at any moment, and you have such a small window to get paid the salary that you deserve.
 

dynomite

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We need baseball more than ever. We truly do.
Just interested, what makes you say this?

What I miss about baseball I don't think I can have until (I hope) 2021. Lazy summer afternoons at Fenway, the smell of grilled sausage, the crowd cheering a home run on the radio, all the familiar sights and sounds and rhythms. Now when Castig talks about deals at Shaw's it will make me think of food insecurity and masks. When JD Martinez bombs one into the Monster seats it'll clang around empty seats with no one chasing it. Baseball will be played, and again I LOVE baseball, but it will be unlike any baseball I've ever seen.

The idea of a shortened season played in empty stadiums with special rules feels more dystopian than comforting. Maybe we'll get used to it. But the idea of it doesn't thrill me.
 

Ale Xander

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Just interested, what makes you say this?

What I miss about baseball I don't think I can have until (I hope) 2021. Lazy summer afternoons at Fenway, the smell of grilled sausage, the crowd cheering a home run on the radio, all the familiar sights and sounds and rhythms. Now when Castig talks about deals at Shaw's it will make me think of food insecurity and masks. When JD Martinez bombs one into the Monster seats it'll clang around empty seats with no one chasing it. Baseball will be played, and again I LOVE baseball, but it will be unlike any baseball I've ever seen.

The idea of a shortened season played in empty stadiums with special rules feels more dystopian than comforting. Maybe we'll get used to it. But the idea of it doesn't thrill me.
Agree with this. Baseball is the one sport where the ball goes into the stands on more than a very rare occasion.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Yeah, the owners are showing zero flexibility. It's a shame I love MLB so much or I would root for the whole sport to implode and them to lose their entire ten figure assets.
I'm probably a bit closer to the owner side of the spectrum than many on this board but I am starting to lean to the idea that this is a pretty good time for the players to make a stand and get busy with the idea of burning this thing down so we can build it back up correctly in a sustainable way. It's a hard pill to swallow, but things are unsustainable right now. There is no doubt that the pandemic is exacerbating things, but I'm getting to the point where I worry that finding a band aid to try to get some games in this year while hoping that a second wave won't eliminate it all anyway might do more long term harm then good. I want there to be games. And if all it does is postpone the day of reckoning, great. But I fear that it is going to do much worse. The situation seems very fucked up right now.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Just interested, what makes you say this?

What I miss about baseball I don't think I can have until (I hope) 2021. Lazy summer afternoons at Fenway, the smell of grilled sausage, the crowd cheering a home run on the radio, all the familiar sights and sounds and rhythms. Now when Castig talks about deals at Shaw's it will make me think of food insecurity and masks. When JD Martinez bombs one into the Monster seats it'll clang around empty seats with no one chasing it. Baseball will be played, and again I LOVE baseball, but it will be unlike any baseball I've ever seen.

The idea of a shortened season played in empty stadiums with special rules feels more dystopian than comforting. Maybe we'll get used to it. But the idea of it doesn't thrill me.
Well, I'm sure we might all have different personal answers for what they miss about baseball. However, I see sports as a unifying force in America and something that brings us a big step back to normalcy.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah ... I think the concept of 10 days off over four months really works for for those who does have to live with that schedule
Can you fix this so I can respond? If you’re saying what I think, 50 man rosters would seem to give everyone who wanted/needed it plenty of games off.
 

Marceline

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With expanded rosters you could easily have a doubleheader once a week and play 7 games/week with a day off. The downside is the overall quality of play will be worse with more of what would have been AAA players getting time in meaningful games.
 

jon abbey

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The upside is depending on the precise rules, we may get to see young studs like Wander Franco a year or two early.
 

EvilEmpire

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The upside is depending on the precise rules, we may get to see young studs like Wander Franco a year or two early.
I agree. That would be awesome for fans.

That said, I suspect if it could be another reason some owners hate the idea of even a partial season with expanded rosters and no fans. Start the clock early on young studs at a time when they can't make any money on them? I wonder if/how much infighting is going on between owners behind the scenes and if there is any self-sabotage from some to kill the season all together. The current offer given to players seemed to be lacking good faith.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, that's why I think they have to reopen the CBA no matter what, as the current 40 man/service time rules don't work for this situation.
 
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I definitely agree that Snell didn't do himself many favors. On the other hand, it's hard to argue with Scherzer's "open up the books" argument. I think for guys like Snell, they are probably trying to be a normal 20 something dude on Twitch locked down in quarantine, but doesnt realize everything he says will be amplified.
Few business owners are going to open up the books and let people tell them how to spend their money and if their net cash flow is x or y, doesn't mean they should agree to something they don't believe is fair. It would be no different than saying Albert Pujos, because he has already received $285M and sucks, should be willing to accept a reduction of more than a proration of his full salary.

I'm not rooting for either party, but because the owners are richer doesn't mean they should treat the negotiations as being something more than just a business decision. If they strongly fear another 1994-like backlash, they'll probably give in.
 

E5 Yaz

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Can you fix this so I can respond? If you’re saying what I think, 50 man rosters would seem to give everyone who wanted/needed it plenty of games off.
A game off is not a day off ... away from the park, spending time with family or just relaxing. And I doubt managers, coaching staffs and auxiliary game day personnel will be getting those games off, either

50-man rosters and doubleheaders will make this less extreme, sure ... But the idea of saying (not your response) that 114 games in 124 days is quite reasonable is little better than saying "no skin off my nose ... make them do it"
 

jon abbey

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I do think it’s reasonable, they also are getting two extra months off before (4 month season as opposed to 6), plus the players are the ones who are asking for more games, not the owners, but it’s a moot point anyway as the owners declared it a non-starter today.
 

JCizzle

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Who am I to complain, but only 50 games seems like not enough for a sport like baseball. Certainly better than zero though!

View: https://twitter.com/jeffpassan/status/1267565933729583109?s=21

The potential season Major League Baseball envisions would run somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 regular-season games, sources told ESPN. The exact number is being considered, but the aim would be to return in July. It would be less than half of players’ proposed season length.
 

jon abbey

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I mean, it's better than zero. Apart from any financial concerns, they do start to run into weather issues in late October.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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My guess is that this is a negotiation tactic. It's a pretty shred one at that.

This is the "now we're haggling over the price" tactic. There's an old offensive joke that doesn't hold up very well that everyone knows and more importantly has a bit of a place in negotiations -- the one that ends with "we've established that now we're haggling over the price."

The idea is to get someone to buy into a reason for a negotiating position and then to call the bluff to make it clear that's not really their reason. The players pro-rata proposals always sounded really fair, right? It seems like the most reasonable position in the world -- you agreed to pay us $x per game when it was 162 games but now it is Y games so pay us that amount per game.

But is that really what the players want? Maybe. I think that's what they said they wanted when they were thinking of a substantial season of 81 or more games. This proposal puts them in a tough position because they may need to come back an say something like, "now wait a minute, 50 games is not enough to make the disruption and all that worth it for what amounts to less than a third of our contract pay." That's what they are going to want to say -- especially the lower salary players who are looking at numbers less than $200k to agree to this proposal.

But when they say that they are basically saying that what they really want is a pro-rata system with a floor guarantee. But can they say that? That's merely the mirror image of what the owners are saying when they say they are willing to pay for the games paid minus a haircut for their lost revenues. Maybe this gives the owners a chance to set themselves up for a "we've already established that Madam" argument.

Maybe this is a legitimate offer and they have had conversations with the networks that make them believe that it can be achievable. My sense is the players won't go for it and they know the players won't go for it, and the owners are hoping they will have an Emperor has no clothes moment that will allow everyone to get down to brass tacks.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Who am I to complain, but only 50 games seems like not enough for a sport like baseball. Certainly better than zero though!

View: https://twitter.com/jeffpassan/status/1267565933729583109?s=21

The potential season Major League Baseball envisions would run somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 regular-season games, sources told ESPN. The exact number is being considered, but the aim would be to return in July. It would be less than half of players’ proposed season length.
If you start in July, why only 50 games? July thru September is 90 days, you should be able to play 80 games. Or 81, for "tradition"
 

jon abbey

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If you start in July, why only 50 games? July thru September is 90 days, you should be able to play 80 games. Or 81, for "tradition"
Owners are worried about a second round of the virus which would force them to cancel the postseason and they'd lose those revenues, so this would give them a better chance to get it all in.

That being said, from the tweets I'm reading, it sounds like they will probably agree on 80 games or so, I'm now confident for the first time since this started that there will be baseball this season.
 

axx

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If you start in July, why only 50 games? July thru September is 90 days, you should be able to play 80 games. Or 81, for "tradition"
Less regular season games they play, less the owners lose. Can't see the players agreeing to that, and frankly 50 games would be a sham.
 

DeadlySplitter

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I assume 50 games is trying to eventually meet in the middle.

We have seen 50 game sample sizes of bad teams doing great and vice versa, so it would be hard for me to take any season of 60 games or less seriously.
 

djbayko

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My guess is that this is a negotiation tactic. It's a pretty shred one at that.

This is the "now we're haggling over the price" tactic. There's an old offensive joke that doesn't hold up very well that everyone knows and more importantly has a bit of a place in negotiations -- the one that ends with "we've established that now we're haggling over the price."

The idea is to get someone to buy into a reason for a negotiating position and then to call the bluff to make it clear that's not really their reason. The players pro-rata proposals always sounded really fair, right? It seems like the most reasonable position in the world -- you agreed to pay us $x per game when it was 162 games but now it is Y games so pay us that amount per game.

But is that really what the players want? Maybe. I think that's what they said they wanted when they were thinking of a substantial season of 81 or more games. This proposal puts them in a tough position because they may need to come back an say something like, "now wait a minute, 50 games is not enough to make the disruption and all that worth it for what amounts to less than a third of our contract pay." That's what they are going to want to say -- especially the lower salary players who are looking at numbers less than $200k to agree to this proposal.

But when they say that they are basically saying that what they really want is a pro-rata system with a floor guarantee. But can they say that? That's merely the mirror image of what the owners are saying when they say they are willing to pay for the games paid minus a haircut for their lost revenues. Maybe this gives the owners a chance to set themselves up for a "we've already established that Madam" argument.

Maybe this is a legitimate offer and they have had conversations with the networks that make them believe that it can be achievable. My sense is the players won't go for it and they know the players won't go for it, and the owners are hoping they will have an Emperor has no clothes moment that will allow everyone to get down to brass tacks.
Ding Ding Ding. Of course this is hardball negotiation. What the players really care about is maximizing their overall salary this year. After all, they only get so many seasons in their career and on their current contracts (which is all they're guaranteed at this time). Full per game salary at less than half the number of games as compared with the MLBPA proposal doesn't help them in that regard.
 

jon abbey

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So the two sides have agreed on three ten team divisions, merging the two Easts, Centrals, and Wests, which I think is probably the toughest for us in the East, and teams will only play the other nine teams during the regular season.

[TH]EAST[/TH] [TH]CENTRAL[/TH] [TH]WEST[/TH]
Yankees Indians Athletics
Orioles Royals Mariners
Rays Twins Angels
Red Sox White Sox Astros
Blue Jays Tigers Rangers
Braves Brewers Dodgers
Nationals Reds Giants
Marlins Cardinals Rockies
Mets Cubs D-Backs
Phillies Pirates Padres



https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/1975968
 

Gdiguy

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I assume 50 games is trying to eventually meet in the middle.

We have seen 50 game sample sizes of bad teams doing great and vice versa, so it would be hard for me to take any season of 60 games or less seriously.
I'm quoting this to then refer to the above post - (rightly) no-one is going to take the 2020 season result seriously

I'd go into this with the goal of 'getting baseball and having a playoff'; if your goal is a serious 2020 season, that ship sailed a long time ago I think - between the high likelihood that some player will test positive at some point and cause a cascading series of scheduling issues, and the undoubtably shortened season with weird double-headers and game structure, it's going to be a completely different baseball this year regardless of how many games there are
 

HriniakPosterChild

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I'm not taking sides but I think the players have managed what little leverage they have very badly. They have come across as whiny and entitled.
Since the first time players struck in the 1970’s, I cannot remember a time when they came off any other way. They never worried about PR battles, but focused on winning the CBA.

A game off is not a day off ... away from the park, spending time with family or just relaxing.
In the immortal words of Joshua Beckett: “My day off is my day off.”

Many of these guys want to play the occasional game of golf.
 

DeadlySplitter

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I'm quoting this to then refer to the above post - (rightly) no-one is going to take the 2020 season result seriously

I'd go into this with the goal of 'getting baseball and having a playoff'; if your goal is a serious 2020 season, that ship sailed a long time ago I think - between the high likelihood that some player will test positive at some point and cause a cascading series of scheduling issues, and the undoubtably shortened season with weird double-headers and game structure, it's going to be a completely different baseball this year regardless of how many games there are
yeah, I kinda thought about this more after posting it and no 2020 season is going to feel like a "proper" champion.

At the same time, it still will be a season. It will be interesting to see if this goes through. who opts out if that is possible. Does Mookie opt out?
 

Average Reds

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Few business owners are going to open up the books and let people tell them how to spend their money and if their net cash flow is x or y, doesn't mean they should agree to something they don't believe is fair. It would be no different than saying Albert Pujos, because he has already received $285M and sucks, should be willing to accept a reduction of more than a proration of his full salary.
Context is everything.

MLB isn't like most businesses. They operate under a CBA. And despite record profits and soaring franchise valuations that have not led to similar increases in compensation for players, they are crying poverty and insisting that players shoulder all the risks associated with playing during a pandemic.

If the owners are insisting on massive pay cuts under those conditions, they damn well better be willing to open their books. If they don't players should absoilutely tell them to pound sand.

I'm not rooting for either party, but because the owners are richer doesn't mean they should treat the negotiations as being something more than just a business decision. If they strongly fear another 1994-like backlash, they'll probably give in.
The bolded means that you are absolutely rooting for one side, because when players make business decisions we (collectively) have a tendency to rain contempt down on them.

As an aside, I completely understand that POV. I'm just saying that we should recognize it for what it is.
 
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Context is everything.

MLB isn't like most businesses. They operate under a CBA. And despite record profits and soaring franchise valuations that have not led to similar increases in compensation for players, they are crying poverty and insisting that players shoulder all the risks associated with playing during a pandemic.

If the owners are insisting on massive pay cuts under those conditions, they damn well better be willing to open their books. If they don't players should absoilutely tell them to pound sand.



The bolded means that you are absolutely rooting for one side, because when players make business decisions we (collectively) have a tendency to rain contempt down on them.

As an aside, I completely understand that POV. I'm just saying that we should recognize it for what it is.
I'm not sure how you're defining a business decision, but the MLBPA has requested a 114 game schedule with a proration based on a full salaries which would result in receiving 70% of their contracted salaries. The owners countered with a 50 game schedule which would result in 31%, meaning there is currently a huge divide.

I don't believe I'm taking a side. I want for there to be a season and I don't care what the final agreement is. I'm indifferent to a shorter schedule that gets us to October or a longer one that extends into December.
 

HriniakPosterChild

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If the owners are insisting on massive pay cuts under those conditions, they damn well better be willing to open their books. If they don't players should absoilutely tell them to pound sand.
Since the late 80’s and into the 90’s, when most of the teams (owned by zillionaires) came with outstretched arms to the taxpayers begging for help building their new pleasure palaces, I am aware of exactly one team that was willing to open its books to prove it was as in dire need of financial assistance as it claimed: the Seattle Mariners.

Those books are sealed shut with Krazy Glue, man.
 

Average Reds

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Since the late 80’s and into the 90’s, when most of the teams (owned by zillionaires) came with outstretched arms to the taxpayers begging for help building their new pleasure palaces, I am aware of exactly one team that was willing to open its books to prove it was as in dire need of financial assistance as it claimed: the Seattle Mariners.

Those books are sealed shut with Krazy Glue, man.
I do remember back in the early 90s that the finances of the Philadelphia Eagles were revealed during the trial of the antitrust lawsuit between the NFLPA and the NFL. And it showed that then-Eagles owner Norman Braman paid himself an outlandish salary ($7.5 million for 1989, which represented almost 20% of team revenues) in an effort to depress the profitability of the team.

The revelation led to the creation of something approximating free agency for the players and eventually drove Braman to sell the team. And I’m pretty sure that most teams finances have been sealed shut after that.

So, yeah, MLB owners are not going to reveal anything. But if asking them to prove their claims of poverty causes them to drop the subject, it’s worth demanding.
 

axx

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I do remember back in the early 90s that the finances of the Philadelphia Eagles were revealed during the trial of the antitrust lawsuit between the NFLPA and the NFL. And it showed that then-Eagles owner Norman Braman paid himself an outlandish salary ($7.5 million for 1989, which represented almost 20% of team revenues) in an effort to depress the profitability of the team.

The revelation led to the creation of something approximating free agency for the players and eventually drove Braman to sell the team. And I’m pretty sure that most teams finances have been sealed shut after that.

So, yeah, MLB owners are not going to reveal anything. But if asking them to prove their claims of poverty causes them to drop the subject, it’s worth demanding.
The problem is probably not league wide. A high payroll team like the Red Sox depends much more on the gate than say the Marlins. And since all the contracts are guaranteed, it's not like the Red Sox could slash payroll for this one year.

There comes a point where it just isn't worth it to have a half assed season.
 

jon abbey

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There comes a point where it just isn't worth it to have a half assed season.
That's true but I don't think it is relevant here. Even if the owners actually lose the money they say they are (very dubious), it should be considered a longer-term capital investment to protect the value of their assets.
 

axx

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That's true but I don't think it is relevant here. Even if the owners actually lose the money they say they are
Obviously the owners won't say how much they would lose; only they would lose less by not playing.
 

axx

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No, they have cited specific numbers, I just don't believe them and neither does the MLBPA which is why they asked to open the books.

Edit: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2020/05/16/major-league-baseball-revenue-loss-report/5207671002/
Oh interesting, hadn't seen that. Don't know if I really trust those numbers but maybe 650k makes sense? Like the Red Sox... just the gate would have been like 1.2 million (30,000 people * 40 bucks average ticket price). Add in people buying food, minus the employee costs....
 

santadevil

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Tom Ricketts says no owners have cash, it all gets put back into the team...but won't prove it
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29257106/cubs-tom-ricketts-says-most-revenue-goes-right-back-team
Yet he says
"The league itself does not make a lot of cash. I think there is a perception that we hoard cash and we take money out and it's all sitting in a pile we've collected over the years. Well, it isn't. Because no one anticipated a pandemic. No one expects to have to draw down on the reserves from the past. Every team has to figure out a way to plug the hole."
Um...what? You shouldn't be expected to use the cash reserves you have piled up from the past to make today's games a go?
That's a BS answer if I've ever heard one. As a business owner, sometimes I need to go without and utilize personal cash for business stuff
 

djbayko

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Tom Ricketts says no owners have cash, it all gets put back into the team...but won't prove it
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29257106/cubs-tom-ricketts-says-most-revenue-goes-right-back-team
Yet he says


Um...what? You shouldn't be expected to use the cash reserves you have piled up from the past to make today's games a go?
That's a BS answer if I've ever heard one. As a business owner, sometimes I need to go without and utilize personal cash for business stuff
Of course the teams don't have cash reserves laying around. Any surplus we take it all out as profit!
 

Ale Xander

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Tom Ricketts says no owners have cash, it all gets put back into the team...but won't prove it
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29257106/cubs-tom-ricketts-says-most-revenue-goes-right-back-team
Yet he says


Um...what? You shouldn't be expected to use the cash reserves you have piled up from the past to make today's games a go?
That's a BS answer if I've ever heard one. As a business owner, sometimes I need to go without and utilize personal cash for business stuff
Dear Tom, there are these things called banks. They like loaning money, especially when you can offer a billion dollar piece of collateral. Rates are low.
 

axx

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$40 average ticket cost? Is it 2000?
Even better. It just goes to show how important the gate is.

You don't have the luxury of waiting three months for it to be more politically doable to have fans in the stands because of the weather. The timing is just not going to work out.
 

jon abbey

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Actually I think the players are attempting to negotiate, but it takes two to tango.
 

Couperin47

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Actually I think the players are attempting to negotiate, but it takes two to tango.
In the best of times Selig, who was one of their own, could barely achieve consensus among the owners. Manfred has no such ability and the crazy with the old 'plantation owner mentality' has in part been replaced by new owners who are seriously leveraged and much more desperate to recoup their investment asap.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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The owners want the players to accept more concessions than they agreed to in March. The players don't want to. So the owners will execute the March agreement - in which players get paid pro rata per game and Manfred decides how many/when games are. It doesn't seem so complicated to me. The owners tried to get the players to subsidize them, the players refused, and the owners will design the season in accordance with the agreement.

Edit: My point being - there's no ransom, there's no hostage. There's a status quo, and the owners wanted to change the status quo. The players don't want to, so it won't change.