Essentially, I'm wondering how we can say that he is more likely to turn out like David Ortiz rather than, say, Jason Bay, Corey Hart, or Carlos Quentin (among many similar-looking players who fell off a cliff after age 30)
That's obviously a more complicated question than what I was addressing in the article. One way to look is to check B-R's
similar player lists. His general and through age 29 lists have both encouraging and discouraging names on it.
Similar Batters:
- Yoenis Cespedes (959.2)
- Bryce Harper (958.8)
- Brad Hawpe (932.4)
- Carlos Quentin (928.2)
- Henry Rodriguez (927.6)
- Nolan Arenado (923.6)
- Ellis Valentine (922.4)
- Wes Covington (920.6)
- Hank Leiber (915.4)
- Tony Conigliaro (914.3)
Similar Batters Through Age 29:
- Jason Bay (970.1)
- Geoff Jenkins (965.5)
- Kevin Mitchell (953.7)
- Bobby Higginson (944.5)
- Aubrey Huff (943.9)
- Ryan Klesko (942.8)
- David Justice (941.1)
- Larry Walker (940.2)
- Corey Hart (938.3)
- J.D. Drew (937.4)
Obviously seeing Bay and Quentin up there induces some fear. But on the plus side here are some names that had pretty good overall runs in their age 30-35 seasons.
JD Drew - 126, 105, 138, 134, 109, 68 with 100 HR
David Justice - 137, 158, 114, 124, 139, 99 OPS+ with 140 HR (age 30 season was just 40 games)
Larry Walker - 178, 158, 164, 110, 160, 151 with 182 HR
Seems like a decent spectrum of guesses about what Martinez would be in the next 6 years with Drew being the low end and Walker being best case scenario.
I'd be pretty happy if we got David Justice out of a Martinez signing. And even the Drew OPS+ run might squeak out enough value to cover a 6/150 contract. Again, this is assuming that Fangraphs has a solid handle on the value of a win.
Edit: I'd toss Kevin Mitchell and Ryan Klesko into the positive end as well.
Klesko - 145, 152, 118, 129, 111 with 107 HR (played in only 6 games at age 35, then had a 92 OPS+ at age 36 over 119 games before hanging up the cleats)
Mitchell - 118, 160, 185, 139, 66 with 70 HR (an injury caused him to miss all of his age 33 year, came back strong for a season then fell off a cliff)