No. If the O's trade Machado they are going to wait some premium prospects/players that are at least controllable for five years. No chance the Sox have what it takes to get Machado, especially since the O's are dealing within the division. The Yanks on the other hand...
Winter Meetings 2018: Rumors and Speculation
- Thread starter Snodgrass'Muff
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No. And it opens an enormous hole at SS.
This is like the offseason from hell. Everything, it seems, is coming up MFYs, while the Sox look like they have to hope for a coaching-driven bounce back by a truckload of key young players in their arb years.
This is like the offseason from hell. Everything, it seems, is coming up MFYs, while the Sox look like they have to hope for a coaching-driven bounce back by a truckload of key young players in their arb years.
The Yankees will not be a factor. Angelos doesn't do deals with the Yankees. Per Tim Britton: "...the only one the Orioles would rule out is the New York Yankees, with whom Peter Angelos does not want to trade, sources say."
Wouldn't that be two years of Xander for one of Machado? That seems substantially more than 50%.
Absolutely. I think people are exaggerating the value of one year of Manny Machado. Boegarts for Machado straight up seems like a reasonable offer given the extra year of team control. Boegarts + Edro for Machado strikes me as an overpay.
The problem is, by dangling Machado the O’s have semaphored the start of their rebuild process.
They, like every other selling team this offseason, will want 5-6 years of club control. Or prospects. Which are precisely the two things the Sox can’t offer without dangling Benintendi or Devers.
It’s really a shame, but at least Sale and Kimbrel are really good pitchers. This is quickly becoming a “dance with them what brung ya” offseason.
Yeah, I agree, I don't think it is really a fit.
Also, if Angelos doesn't want to trade Machado to the Yankees I doubt he's super thrilled to trade him to the Red Sox. Lest he wants Fenway South to be even more raucous for the Red Sox in 2018.
I wouldn't trade Devers or Beni for one year of Machado.
My first thought was that multiple years of X might be a reasonable offer for one year of Manny. But if the O's really want cost-controlled SPs, that was what made me think of ERod and Johnson. It might not be enough from the O's perspective, but should they give up more than that? If they're trading X to make room for Manny at short, what does he bring back? Can we get the two young SPs we need to send to the O's, essentially making it a three-way deal?
I agree that this is all highly unlikely - Angelos probably doesn't want to deal with Boston much more than he does with NYY, and they will doubtless get other offers. But this got my brain churning. I'd be willing to consider this, especially in light of how unattractive most of the alternatives seem to be.
My first thought was that multiple years of X might be a reasonable offer for one year of Manny. But if the O's really want cost-controlled SPs, that was what made me think of ERod and Johnson. It might not be enough from the O's perspective, but should they give up more than that? If they're trading X to make room for Manny at short, what does he bring back? Can we get the two young SPs we need to send to the O's, essentially making it a three-way deal?
I agree that this is all highly unlikely - Angelos probably doesn't want to deal with Boston much more than he does with NYY, and they will doubtless get other offers. But this got my brain churning. I'd be willing to consider this, especially in light of how unattractive most of the alternatives seem to be.
I've always thought that Machado would be a great fit in Philly as a FA. As would Harper, for that matter, although I wouldn't rule out that Harper stays with the Nats, on a market-rate deal, of course. But no way Machado stays in Baltimore after next year, which is why it make sense for them to trade him now.
I keep shaking my head every time I hear DD reiterate that he's only looking for one bat. Coming off a season that saw league offense remain at record highs, and where Eduardo freaking Nunez was the best hitter on your team no less.
Just splurge on a crazy contract to JD Martinez already. He's completely out of his element here trying to do anything else that actually has the possibility to end on a winning note.
Just splurge on a crazy contract to JD Martinez already. He's completely out of his element here trying to do anything else that actually has the possibility to end on a winning note.
1 WAR is worth a bit less than 8 million now.
Machado is projected by Steamer to bounce back to a 6+ win player so would be roughly worth 50 mill.
Take away the 17 mil arbitration figure and he is worth 33 in excess value.
X is projected to be about a 3.5 win player so would be worth roughly 28 million.
Take away the 7 million arbitration and he is worth 21 in excess value.
Xander's excess value should go down in 2019, due to the arbitration number going up, but it looks like a slight overpay to me on paper for Macahado straight up. Though I guess Machado's value goes up if his glove is still as elite at shortstop. Toss up maybe.
If Machado is only worth 30+ excess million, then good luck to Duquette finding teams willing to part with two even league average cost controlled starters who are worth waaay more than that. The draft pick compensation mitigates it a tad, but not much.
Machado is projected by Steamer to bounce back to a 6+ win player so would be roughly worth 50 mill.
Take away the 17 mil arbitration figure and he is worth 33 in excess value.
X is projected to be about a 3.5 win player so would be worth roughly 28 million.
Take away the 7 million arbitration and he is worth 21 in excess value.
Xander's excess value should go down in 2019, due to the arbitration number going up, but it looks like a slight overpay to me on paper for Macahado straight up. Though I guess Machado's value goes up if his glove is still as elite at shortstop. Toss up maybe.
If Machado is only worth 30+ excess million, then good luck to Duquette finding teams willing to part with two even league average cost controlled starters who are worth waaay more than that. The draft pick compensation mitigates it a tad, but not much.
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Agreed on the latter. McCutchen likely played that many games in CF due to the fact that Marte was suspended for 80 games.
As an organization, the Pirates had decided to move Marte into center.
https://www.thescore.com/news/1225258
I think what we both are saying is, that McCutchen can't play center, and would play LF for the Sox. His offensive upside might be enough to offset the defensive downgrade of losing JBJ. The real question is, do we feel confident enough that Benintendi can handle CF well enough to make the offensive upgrade worth it. Acquisition costs aside, McCutchen (lifetime OPS+ 136) versus Martinez (lifetime OPS+ 130) is a pretty interesting comparison to do a deeper dive into.
I couldn't agree with this more. He needs two bats, especially since the one he gets will have to shoulder too much of the load.
Justin Bour would seem like a really nice mid-level target to upgrade 1B. Trade for him and then throw some $$$ at JD Martinez and call this done.
I wouldn't put money on McCutchen being a 136 OPS+ hitter next year.
Last 4 years:
McCutchen - 168, 144, 105, 122
Martinez - 154, 136, 141, 166
Here's an interesting number for those of you desperate for more offense.
Post-Stanton trade, fangraphs projected aggregate offensive value in 2018:
Yankees 26.4
Red Sox 25.0
Obviously both teams have more work to do - I imagine that Tyler Wade is not going to get 420 PAs at 3B for the Yankees, nor is Sam Travis likely to be our primary option at first base. But right now projections have the offense between the two teams a lot closer to equal than you might expect. Even without JDM, swap Hosmer or Santana in for Sam Travis and the Red Sox would have the best projected offense in the league -- although of course other teams aren't done yet either.
I bet a big piece of the difference between our perception and projection is the expected regression to the mean for two players, Aaron Judge and Mookie Betts. Fangraphs has those two being about equal hitters in 2018 (132 RC+ for Judge, 131 for Betts). You can see where the numbers are coming from when you look at Mookie's .268 BABIP last year and Judge having never held a ISO over .232 in the minors. We'll see.
Post-Stanton trade, fangraphs projected aggregate offensive value in 2018:
Yankees 26.4
Red Sox 25.0
Obviously both teams have more work to do - I imagine that Tyler Wade is not going to get 420 PAs at 3B for the Yankees, nor is Sam Travis likely to be our primary option at first base. But right now projections have the offense between the two teams a lot closer to equal than you might expect. Even without JDM, swap Hosmer or Santana in for Sam Travis and the Red Sox would have the best projected offense in the league -- although of course other teams aren't done yet either.
I bet a big piece of the difference between our perception and projection is the expected regression to the mean for two players, Aaron Judge and Mookie Betts. Fangraphs has those two being about equal hitters in 2018 (132 RC+ for Judge, 131 for Betts). You can see where the numbers are coming from when you look at Mookie's .268 BABIP last year and Judge having never held a ISO over .232 in the minors. We'll see.
JDM seems to make the most sense, but at what cost? To me, it's not so much the money (although I think anything more seems like an overpay), but the years - even 5 makes me squeamish, 6 makes me nauseous, and 7 would make me apoplectic. If they're paying him 25-30 per year for 6 or 7 years, then that's going to put a real dent in their ability to extend the players we want to keep (or others we may want to acquire) that may provide more value than a 35 YO DH.
If the Cardinals are swooping in on Ozuna, I hope we're looking at Grichuk.
Here's his spray chart in Fenway.
He had a poor start but posted a .352 wOBA in the second half. Poor BB/K ratio, but has exit velocities among the highest in the game, and seems like an extreme pull hitter geared to Fenway. He's 26, hitting arb.
Depending what goes back to Miami (if the trade goes through), the Cardinals have Pham, Martinez, Piscotty, Fowler, Sierra, and Bader to fill out two outfield spots not occupied by Ozuna. Maybe they're interested in Travis to pair with Matt Carpenter, who suddenly stopped hitting lefties.
Here's his spray chart in Fenway.
He had a poor start but posted a .352 wOBA in the second half. Poor BB/K ratio, but has exit velocities among the highest in the game, and seems like an extreme pull hitter geared to Fenway. He's 26, hitting arb.
Depending what goes back to Miami (if the trade goes through), the Cardinals have Pham, Martinez, Piscotty, Fowler, Sierra, and Bader to fill out two outfield spots not occupied by Ozuna. Maybe they're interested in Travis to pair with Matt Carpenter, who suddenly stopped hitting lefties.
Well that was rather generous of FG to give Hanley a healthy rebound that will play out to be his 3rd best OPS in the last 10 years, Betts a return to 2016 MVP level slugging, and 595 PAs out of Pedroia next year.
Shame it's a better bet that none of that actually happens.
They're not extending everyone, so don't lose sleep over trying to figure out how they can do it. They need to go hard at the next two years and figure out the future afterward. They've already committed too many resources to winning in the short term to take their foot off the gas now (which is an argument for why you shouldn't go too hard at the short term in the first place... but that's where we are).
If it takes 6 or 7 years to land Martinez, do it. Pull out all the stops until Sale hits free agency (unless Price opts out, he's not going to be extended short of a shocking willingness to take a "home town" discount to stay). After 2019 you sell off what you can and ride out the rest while you rebuild.
Priorities that winter...
1. Do everything you can to extend Mookie (he'll be Arb 3).
2. Extend Edro and Vazquez
3. See if Benintendi and Devers will take "Evan Longoria" contracts.
4. See if Bogaerts will go against Boras and take a sweetheart deal. If not, see 5...
5. Sell anything else you can.
If Martinez has two huge years, moving his last 4 or 5 won't be too difficult, even if they have to eat some money. Worst case scenario, you have two bad contracts on the next good Red Sox team (Price and Martinez... I don't think Pedroia at 13.75 AAV will be "bad" even at the end.) and the overlap between those expiring and the new window opening shouldn't be too large.
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So rooting pretty hard atm on StL or SF coming up a winter meetings winner on the Ozuna trade front. One less team with confirmed $$$ to spend in on JDM and such.
Preller fully christening his freshly inked 3 year extension with a Hosmer contract would put a smile on my face too.
Preller fully christening his freshly inked 3 year extension with a Hosmer contract would put a smile on my face too.
What, that two years of Xander is worth> than 50% of one year of Machado?
That seems crazy?
Ed: here's a factoid: Bogaerts has two more silver slugger awards than Machado.
Couldn't agree more strongly with this analysis. The Kimbrel and Sale acquisitions insist that we do what we can this year and next to make the playoffs and hopefully win it all. The Yankees may be better positioned for 2020-25 but until then we are a couple of bats away from two to three good runs at the WS.
Because they're looking for pitching. But people are vastly overestimating what Machado would get for one season.
What if we thought of Bogaerts as a liquid asset, and they could turn him into a pitcher of equal value?
Is that factoid supposed to be meaningful in some way? Machado's competition for Silver Slugger awards have been Miguel Cabrera (2013), Adrian Beltre (2014), Josh Donaldson (2015-2016), and Jose Ramirez (2017). Hardly the same caliber of hitters that Bogaerts beat out in 2015 and 2016.
Bogaerts
2015: .320/.355/.421/.776, 107 OPS+, 7 HR, 81 RBI
2016: .295/.356/.446/.802, 111 OPS+, 21 HR, 89 RBI
Machado
2015: .286/.359/.502/.861, 132 OPS+, 35 HR, 86 RBI
2016: .294/.343/.533/.876, 130 OPS+, 37 HR, 96 RBI
Something tells me that if Machado were a full time SS, Bogaerts wouldn't have any Silver Slugger awards on his mantle.
Great. So basically same team as last year with a new guy playing the role of Moreland. Duda, Morrison, come on down..
Rodriguez if he was going into his 2nd year of arbitration maybe or a back end guy who is cheaper. I don't know. It's hard to come up with something. The O's probably want someone pre-arb, but I think they'll have trouble finding one. They ought to just get prospects.
We saw how little the Tigers got for a bit less than a half season of JDM, and he made less than Machado will this season. How many teams really want to give up a ton to have him for year, though? Only the contenders who have a hole at short or third would even bother.
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On Tuesday, Giancarlo Stanton’s agent told The Standard-Times that had the team expressed more interest in his client, they would have considered Boston as a possible destination.
“Oh, of course, yeah,” said Joel Wolfe, Stanton’s agent. “I don’t know what the Marlins said to them, but I can’t imagine that they would’ve said, ‘Hey he doesn’t want to go there, so don’t bother.’ We said, ‘These are our preferences, but we’ll listen to what you have to say.’”
Instead, the feared slugger ended up being traded to the New York Yankees. Regardless of their involvement, Boston didn’t make the list of preferred teams, which included the New York Yankees, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs. Why?
“I don’t really know,” Wolfe said. “Because, like I was saying, the list kind of morphed over time. And then at the end, it was the four (League Championship Series) finishers just based on the way he was looking at them. That was a lot of it. But then I think some of it was, ‘Well, I don’t think they would want me anyway just because look at the makeup of their team and the studs they have in the outfield.’ That’s the way we looked at it.”
So when it came to creating Stanton’s list, he and Wolfe wrote off Boston simply based on the outfield, which features Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr and Andrew Benintendi.
“We said there’s no way they would want to be in on him just given the quality of the outfielders,” Wolfe said. “They already had those guys are under salary control. So it didn’t seem like it would make sense. And then when we asked the Marlins, they said no, the Red Sox were not in on him.”
Following Stanton’s introductory press conference on Monday, Wolfe expressed that the Red Sox were “never presented to us as an option” and that they “were prioritizing pitching.”
Red Sox Prisdent of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski denied having told Wolfe pitching was a top priority, though relief pitching wasn’t out of the question, which Stanton’s agent — who is also Brandon Morrow and Yu Darvish’s representative — did discuss with the team.
“I had called them about Brandon Morrow and at the time they were not interested,” Wolfe told The Standard-Times. “They didn’t need any right-handed pitching because of (Craig) Kimbrel, Joe Kelly. And then (I called) about Darvish, at the time, they have pretty good front of the rotation starters. And they were talking about some more middle or left-handed relief pitching at the time. That’s when it popped into my head. I was working on maybe two hours sleep and a lot going on. So that’s when it went into my head.”
http://www.southcoasttoday.com/sports/20171212/agent-giancarlo-stanton-would-have-considered-boston-if-red-sox-had-shown-more-interest
“Oh, of course, yeah,” said Joel Wolfe, Stanton’s agent. “I don’t know what the Marlins said to them, but I can’t imagine that they would’ve said, ‘Hey he doesn’t want to go there, so don’t bother.’ We said, ‘These are our preferences, but we’ll listen to what you have to say.’”
Instead, the feared slugger ended up being traded to the New York Yankees. Regardless of their involvement, Boston didn’t make the list of preferred teams, which included the New York Yankees, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs. Why?
“I don’t really know,” Wolfe said. “Because, like I was saying, the list kind of morphed over time. And then at the end, it was the four (League Championship Series) finishers just based on the way he was looking at them. That was a lot of it. But then I think some of it was, ‘Well, I don’t think they would want me anyway just because look at the makeup of their team and the studs they have in the outfield.’ That’s the way we looked at it.”
So when it came to creating Stanton’s list, he and Wolfe wrote off Boston simply based on the outfield, which features Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr and Andrew Benintendi.
“We said there’s no way they would want to be in on him just given the quality of the outfielders,” Wolfe said. “They already had those guys are under salary control. So it didn’t seem like it would make sense. And then when we asked the Marlins, they said no, the Red Sox were not in on him.”
Following Stanton’s introductory press conference on Monday, Wolfe expressed that the Red Sox were “never presented to us as an option” and that they “were prioritizing pitching.”
Red Sox Prisdent of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski denied having told Wolfe pitching was a top priority, though relief pitching wasn’t out of the question, which Stanton’s agent — who is also Brandon Morrow and Yu Darvish’s representative — did discuss with the team.
“I had called them about Brandon Morrow and at the time they were not interested,” Wolfe told The Standard-Times. “They didn’t need any right-handed pitching because of (Craig) Kimbrel, Joe Kelly. And then (I called) about Darvish, at the time, they have pretty good front of the rotation starters. And they were talking about some more middle or left-handed relief pitching at the time. That’s when it popped into my head. I was working on maybe two hours sleep and a lot going on. So that’s when it went into my head.”
http://www.southcoasttoday.com/sports/20171212/agent-giancarlo-stanton-would-have-considered-boston-if-red-sox-had-shown-more-interest
If this is legitimate this makes Boston look really bad. How do you not even really engage on Stanton when your number 1-3 needs are power? Have a rotating DH. How hard is that?
This is the same DD who said no moves were close then 1 hour later traded for sale.
Don’t believe him.
Supposedly, they were one of three teams inquiring at the GM meetings, along with the Giants and Cardinals. All three teams were told they weren't on his list. The Giants and Cards pushed ahead with offers and were rebuffed anyway. So I'm not seeing where Dombrowski committed some sort of dereliction of duty by not expending time and energy into pursuing a player who wasn't overtly interested in considering teams outside his list. Especially when ultimately, Stanton went to one of the teams on his approved list. Stanton's agent can give all the lip service he wants to how he'd have considered offers, but actions indicate he's probably full of shit.
I don't think so
Source says Red Sox 90-10 in their pursuit of J.D. Martinez vs. other(s). Makes sense: he’s the best free agent bat available in terms of production, no qualifying offer.
No.
fac·toid
ˈfakˌtoid/
noun
- NORTH AMERICAN
a brief or trivial item of news or information.
I’m absolutely petrified of the type of anchor contract this is going to be. Just pass on him trade for a cheap bat and wait for Harper or Machado next year.
Well about that:
The Yankees are one of the teams that has expressed interest in Manny Machado. There would be major questions about whether the two division rivals would actually conclude a deal, but Orioles are listening, Yankees have a loaded farm system. White Sox also interested.
I don't know about this. Harper's literally rumored at $500M and Machado is on record as saying he's "lost all respect for that organization," meaning ours, six months ago.
The D-Backs, Dodgers and Giants know JDM's defense is atrocious and would only age worse. Cautiously optimistic we have a shot at him around $150M.
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No, people are not. The Orioles have no NEED to trade Machado this offseason. They can perfectly well open the season with him playing 3B and batting at the top of their order of ball-mashing brutes.
If the Orioles don’t get blown away by an “overpay” this winter, they’ll just hold onto him and maybe re-list him at the trade deadline, when some contender will need him — which, if a few young pitchers like Bundy and Gausman can put strong seasons together, could be the Orioles.