Said the same thing about Fielder. January comes and Fielder got an insane contract. He's going to get 200 million if it comes to that. JD will be a Sox this upcoming season hell or high water.
Winter Meetings 2018: Rumors and Speculation
- Thread starter Snodgrass'Muff
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Not from Dombrowski he didn’t. All indications are the owner made that deal. Dombrowski was the one who bailed them out (partially) by swapping him for Kinsler.
Wouldn't one year of Adrian Beltre be considerably cheaper to acquire than 1 year of Josh Donaldson?
It's that option year buyouts are guaranteed and included in the pre-option year AAV of the contract, so they aren't counted again during the option year.
There have been no rumours that TO will trade Donaldson this winter .. on the the contrary they have indicated they want to keep him - and a trade to a direct division rival would be out of the question in any case.
As a FA next winter he, arguably will command a deal in excess of what Martinez will get this year - if not a lot more. The only knock on him will be his age.
Who says Henry doesn't point to ratings and tell DD to make the deal for whatever Boras wants? The problem with boxing yourself in for one player is that this could easily occur. Take the option away by taking care of the issue before Henry can get involved and open his checkbook. You have 3 or 4 real options then this will not happen. The problem in Detroit was that Illich felt they needed another bat and Fielder was the best available. Take care of that issue prior and Fielder never gets that contract from Detroit. The fact the Sox didn't even make a call on Stanton until late tells me that JD Martinez is their guy. Which if you look at JDs history, the possible park factors that Fenway could do to his swing and his awful defense says this is an extremely flawed player who you are hitching your wagon to.
My biggest concern about JD Martinez from this article:
"Martinez isn’t a perfect fit because he’s a righthanded opposite-field power hitter. Martinez pulled only eight of his home runs last year. Fenway Park, particularly early and late in the year, does not serve his rightfield gap power stroke well at all."
That's unbelievable. Pulling just 8 out of 45 homers? I'd guess that Fenway would suppress his HR power so that it would be fantastic if he'd hit about 35-37 homers. Don't get me wrong - still a power upgrade, but the Sox would be paying for 45 homers, not 35-37.
EDIT: Then again, there's this spray chart from 2017 with Fenway overlay, and it makes me a little more optimistic:
And in fact, how can the SI article be right in saying that only 8 of his home runs were pulled? I see 18, not 8. And the RF and CF homers would have been out of Fenway except for two, maybe three. So ok I feel a little better.
Yes but he has a track record of sustained success. JD hit 29 homers after the ASB. There is no way in hell regression isn't coming there. Donaldson is the guy that the Sox should have acquired a couple years back when Toronto stole him. He would be perfect here.
The rest of the league is going to love Yankees/Red Sox if Sox sign both Hosmer and JDM after Yanks scored Stanton. Plus I expect the Yanks aren't done.
So, if this scenario occurred, it’s DD’s fault for a move his boss made him make?
Per Fangraphs, which uses Baseball Info Solutions, his hard hit rate in 2017 was 37 percent, which is a higher percentage than any recorded in his career by that metric.
Trusting Tim Britton of the ProJo on this one, who wrote last month that Kinsler's salary would only count $6M against the luxury tax.
Yes and no. Its his fault for not addressing the situation before allowing Henry to get involved. If they already have a DH/1B answer then Henry can't order DD to spend 200 million for JD.
Team probably wins one more with Ortiz had they pursued Donaldson harder. This is one of these things where it makes sense to trade players over paying a decent player like a star. This year could be the same thing. JD Martinez is someone who we don’t really know who he is. We know before last year he hit 30 homers once and then went on a barrage in the 2nd half. I have no problem with the Sox paying 200-300 + million for elite talent. I have a problem with them paying 200 million for a decent player.
Ilitch wanted to win a title before he passed away (sadly, he didn't). That was the main reason he basically gave Fielder that contract.
Henry is not that kind of person, not from what we have seen. I don't think it was him who ordered the Crawford signing when Theo started to talk about a "bridge year".
I dunno, man. Martinez has the fifth-best wOBA in baseball over the last four years. Third best in the last two. He's a bad defender and has had problems staying on the field, but I don't know what else you need to know about him.
I wasn't disputing that. Just that Toronto doesn't want to trade Donaldson this winter as a full tank job will kill attendance and set them back into the doldrums they inhabited pre Anthopolous.
Exactly what Chawson said, JD Martinez has been a damn good hitter for the last three years. I don’t understand those who worry about him turning into a pumpkin.
And I wouldn’t mind seeing his oppo power on the road against divisional opppnents - especially in NY
And I wouldn’t mind seeing his oppo power on the road against divisional opppnents - especially in NY
Over that span:
7th in wRC+
3rd in ISO
9th in HR
4th in SLG
He's the best answer to the team's power problem.
Henry can do whatever he wants, he owns the goddamn team. And perhaps DD wanted to do it last year by making a bigger acquisition than Moreland and Henry told him no.
Jesus fuck, the lengths people have been going to to find fault with DD since the day he was rumored to be hired are absurd. He inherited a mess from BC and immediately won two division titles. Let’s maybe give him a minute to work through that.
I’m not saying DD is bad. What I’m saying is that while Henry can certainly do whatever he wants what’s the justification of spending 200 million on JD Martinez when you already have an answer at the position? Henry isn’t a dumb businessman. If DD can patch the hole with a decent option before then it takes the leverage away from Boras and then he can send JD Martinez to SF and he can be their problem over the next 7 years.
I also have no doubt that DD wanted to grab Encarnarcion but Henry killed going after him since he didn’t want to go over the tax. All of this I am not blaming him for. However it becomes his fault somewhat if the Sox are forced to give JD Martinez 200 million + on a long term deal because they weren’t able to fix their power issue. This is not the guy you give the money to and it screams ratings grab.
At the end of the day the shiny division titles are nice but you need to try and find a way to get past Houston Cleveland or New York and right now either looking on the trade market or getting a stop gap option and looking towards next years FA is probably the best bet. Don’t settle for a guy who before last season hit 30 homers once.
Curious, Take away the 29 homers after the All Star Break and take it down to say 15. Where would he rank then? It’s all about what’s real. If we’re expecting this from JD next year it’s going to be a long 2018. It’s a foregone conclusion that JD is a Red Sox the question is how much this contract is going to hurt in years and money.
Last four seasons:
2014 (26): 441 ab, 23 hr, .315/.358/.553/.912, 154 ops+
2015 (27): 596 ab, 38 hr, .282/.344/.535/.879, 139 ops+
2016 (28): 460 ab, 22 hr, .307/.373/.535/.908, 142 ops+
2017 (29): 432 ab, 45 hr, .303/.376/.690/1.066, 166 ops+
TOTAL: 1929 ab, 128 hr, .300/.362/.574/.936, 149 ops+
TOT/162: 602 ab, 40 hr, .300/.362/.574/.936, 149 ops+
I dunno...seems pretty solid to me. I don't expect 45 homers again, but upper 30s? Yes, as long as he gets 550 at-bats. Not Stanton or Judge, but a very very good RH power bat.
I don’t want JDM either, but it’s not my money. Build me a scenario where he could have solved the 1B issue last season if, as presumed, Henry told him he couldn’t go over the cap? They were right up on it already because he had to eat Panda’s deal and Hanley is an albatross. The guy can’t work magic.
Last year Moreland was one of the best options. Unless you had a way back machine and didn’t trade Shaw. Maybe trade for Adams. Sign Morrison. So some options were there. DD is not at fault for Panda and Hanley. All I’m saying is that there are other options out there over JD. I mean hell I would even bring up Travis to play 1st over JD being paid 25-30 million. See what shakes out in the middle of the season. Throwing money at every situation is exactly what Detroit did.
I’m just not sure DD can get creative enough to fix the hole before Henry gets involved and ownership pressures DD to sign Martinez to a crazy ass contract.
I have no doubts about the bat, I think his “late bloomer” status causes people to overlook just how good he has been. My concern is that he has only topped 123 games once in his career. Another injury prone JD?
yeah, the playoff crapshoot would have totally been in our favor if we just had just done X!
Add Donaldson and subtract Panda. You’re really doubting that? That’s such a massive upgrade that yes I am comfortable in saying that this team had a good shot at winning another one with Ortiz here. Probably at least gets to the WS. That’s adding an MVP to an already talented team.yeah, the playoff crapshoot would have totally been in our favor if we just had just done X!
it's likely we would have at least had HFA in the LDS, yes, if not the #1 seed. still does not guarantee a single thing.
Trades require assets moving in each direction. Take a look at the Sox roster/prospects as of Nov 2014 (when the Donaldson trade went down) and tell me who Oakland would've received in your Donaldson trade. What if it'd been Mookie Betts? Adding Donaldson for crap would clearly have been a great trade, but we have no idea what Oakland would've required in order to do the deal.
You and Scott Boras are the only ones who think Martinez is getting $200m. All the reports are that there are two teams in the running, BOS and ARI.
Arizona reportedly needs to deal Greinke to make the money work — which both makes me think we can likely beat their best offer, and makes me wonder if such a signing isn't one step forward, one step back in terms of actually improving their roster. (After Martinez' electrifying half-season in ARI, they have strong PR reasons to be at least seen trying to sign him.) The Osuna deal takes the Cardinals out of the running; Martinez' poor OF defense takes the Giants out; other big-market clubs that might be interested have full outfields (LAD, LAA, WAS, NYY, HOU) or other priorities (CHC, TEX). Potential dark horses include rebuilding clubs PHI and CHW, but we've seen no indication that they're sniffing around.
As such, my prediction is that Boston signs Martinez for a 5 or 6 year deal with a value between $120 and $150m, topping an offer from ARI. But we'll see.
While we wait, I'd be interested to read your thoughts on why you think Martinez' contract will top $200m, if you were so inclined.
I think he thinks that there is some major overreaction around the league to JDM's crazy good second half numbers, and that is part of why we are interested in JDM.
It is true that if the rest of the league now believed that JDM was likely to match that production for a full season, then he might get a $30 million contract.
But I don't think anybody in MLB believes that. It seems like the market for JDM is about what you'd expect for a player who had four years of consistent high offensive performance.
Honestly, it’s what Boras wants. The pressure on the front office to get a power bat and literally painting themselves into a corner with zero negotiating power because they’ve more or less made it clear that Martinez is their guy. Like most free agents he’s going to get overpaid. Between SF ARI and BOS Boras has enough teams to play off of each other. Boras can sell his BS 2nd half numbers as a guy who just needed a chance, became a late bloomer and now is on the upswing of his career. I see it different.
I’ll say this even if he gets something like 6/180 that’s still a crazy freaking overpay that I’d rather SF do than the Sox.
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Not every ball to the left of straight away CF is classified as pull. About 8 are definitely pull while another 10 are classified as CF or LF-CFMy biggest concern about JD Martinez from this article:
"Martinez isn’t a perfect fit because he’s a righthanded opposite-field power hitter. Martinez pulled only eight of his home runs last year. Fenway Park, particularly early and late in the year, does not serve his rightfield gap power stroke well at all."
That's unbelievable. Pulling just 8 out of 45 homers? I'd guess that Fenway would suppress his HR power so that it would be fantastic if he'd hit about 35-37 homers. Don't get me wrong - still a power upgrade, but the Sox would be paying for 45 homers, not 35-37.
EDIT: Then again, there's this spray chart from 2017 with Fenway overlay, and it makes me a little more optimistic:
And in fact, how can the SI article be right in saying that only 8 of his home runs were pulled? I see 18, not 8. And the RF and CF homers would have been out of Fenway except for two, maybe three. So ok I feel a little better.
The good thing is we play half the games on the road. That RF power will help at YS3 and other AL East parks. Also while he may lose some HR at Fenway, he might get a few more hits with all the space out there
Well you have to look at the assets Toronto gave up. Realistically Boston had 4 prospects in the lower top 10 better than the headliner, Kendall Graveman. Would never have cost Betts. Maybe Owens would have been the headliner coming back. In which case back then you pack his bags. Was never a big Owens fan
You've said this with certainty a couple times. How can it be so certain? The consensus was that the Sox would be in on Martinez this offseason, but what evidence is there that they've made it clear he's their one and only? Because they didn't get Stanton?
Which ignores that Beane wanted a ML ready replacement for him in the package which he got in Lowrie and the Sox did not have. He wasn’t having a fire sale he was trying to retool.
As to your points about JDM, who gives a shit what Boras wants? He doesn’t dictate what a team will pay, he negotiates for the best offer he can get. If a team doesn’t give it, Martinez isn’t going to sit out next year.
They more or less ignored Stanton and didn’t do much with Ozuna. That tells me they already have a player in mind. Which I’m about 99.9% sure that’s JD Martinez and I really hope it becomes the .01% and I’m wrong. He’s all wrong for this team.
The headliner was Franklin Barreto, but also required a major league infielder in Brett Lawrie.
We probably could have beaten it with a package of Swihart and Owens, but that’s hindsight.
Isn't it the agent's job to get his client the best contract he can? If he can get competing clubs to buy his interpretation of the player's numbers, what is he doing wrong? Clubs are free to decline.
Correction: Stanton more or less ignored Boston. They weren't on his list. He wasn't coming here. PERIOD!
All reports state they inquired. They didn't have the prospects that Miami was looking for. St. Louis did.
Why is he all wrong? He's one of the best power bats in baseball over the last few years (as others have repeatedly pointed out with hard info).
Really? Seems to me that some of the ones I mentioned had trouble performing at all and there probably are questions about how well they will perform next season.
Maybe they all will "perform acceptably" but I would prefer to see some evidence before I would say they "can."