World Cup Gambling Thread

[Jeff Van GULLY]

The atmosphere and logistics outside of the matches may be a disaster and now we have rumors of Qatar match fixing in the Ecuador game but that won't deter me from gambling on the tournament.



What I have so far:

England Asian Handicap -1.25 (DK)
England should win +2 but it's England so we start with a hedge. If they draw against Iran, they'll be in Roo-ins for the rest of the group.

USA (vs. Wales) (tie no bet) -140 (DK)
More patriotic pride but the tournament starts off with such an important result for both teams. Can USA's defense stop Bale and Wales' counterattacking? I'm so bullish on our attacking young guys and they have a swagger.

Uruguay Group H winner +200 (FD)
My sleeper of the tournament and their biggest competition for the group is Portugal, who I'm pessimistic on and have struggled at the WC.

Netherlands Group A winner -180 (FD)
See a lot of value on this as DraftKings has it as -280


hope there are some others who will join and look forward to hearing your views and what you like. More later but that's what I like for now. Best of luck!

 

[DJnVa]

Small parlay today: Over 1.5 goals, both teams to score, and Estrada with a goal--DK gave me an odds boost to +950

 

[Ale Xander]

I admire the intestinal fortitude to bet on fixed matches, but betting on the over here seems cogent.

 

[DJnVa]

Didn't hit, but the odds boost was only for that game so I had to give it a shot.

 

[Jeff Van GULLY]

Can still parlay England and Argentina to win their groups for -150. Just grabbed it (FD).

 

[Jeff Van GULLY]

For tomorrow:

Denmark Asian Handicap -0.75 (DK)

 

[Jeff Van GULLY]

Disappointing result for Denmark. Between Tunisia's result and the Saudi shocker, I'm wondering if more weight needs to be given to the CAF countries and others close geographically to Qatar. Seems to be a bunch of Tunisian fans at the Denmark match.

I think someone else mentioned it in a game thread but with the long injury time, I starting looking into corner stats (pretty hard to find for free btw!). I am now taking O 8.5 corners in MEX-POL (-150, DK). I expect to continue to bet O corners but we'll see what each game gives us.

 

[Jeff Van GULLY]

Corners comfortably won with 11. Taking France-Australia O 8.5 corners. Aussies don't draw a lot, nor concede a lot, but I think that has to do a lot with qualification. France on the other hand averages 9.7 total corners.

 

[Jeff Van GULLY]

Over in corners worked today and I take O 8.5 in the spain-costa rica match. Ticos give up a boatload of corners.

Also nabbed O 8.5 in the Coatia-Morocco match.

The other two matches were at 9.5 when I checked and their stats weren’t as compelling. The books are starting to adjust.


Taking Croatia -0.5 on the Asian Handicap as well. Their defense is their weak point but do they have some firepower up front and talent in the midfield.

 

[Jeff Van GULLY]

Corners didn’t work out too well on game day 4. Back at it today for Netherlands-Ecuador (O 8.5).

USA to score is +150 at draftkings if you can get it. Otherwise BTTS in England-USA is what we’re taking.

 

[Jeff Van GULLY]

Argentina could be eliminated from the World Cup today with a loss to Mexico. What do we think?


Argentina O 1.5 goals

Small bet on France/Denmark U 2.5 goals

 

[Mloaf71]

I went Argentina/Mexico O2.5. Both teams are in a tough spot with a draw. Should open the field for plenty of scoring chances. Got that at +132 on FanDuel.

 

[DJnVa]

I just took France and Argentina to win. Small bet though.

 

[Jeff Van GULLY]

I went Argentina/Mexico O2.5. Both teams are in a tough spot with a draw. Should open the field for plenty of scoring chances. Got that at +132 on FanDuel.

I like it!

 

[Mloaf71]

Now if we could just get some goals we’d be in business!

 

[Jeff Van GULLY]

Belgium/Japan to win (draw-no bet) parlay

and

Canada to win (DNB)

 

[Mloaf71]

I put a few bucks on Germany 1st half/draw final at +1200. Today has been a crazy day so going for it.

 

[candylandriots]

I’m still 0 for the World Cup. I’ve got Germany to win in this game, so if anyone wants some easy money, bet against that.

 

[teddywingman]

I have 10 bucks to play with on Fanduel cause I made a 2 dollar bet on an exact score earlier. I don't know shit, but would love to maybe make two $5 bets on some high reward parlays. Anyone got any ideas for today, tomorrow, tuesday?

Edit: To clarify that I have been watching quite a bit over the last year. EPL and Champions League, plus this WC when I have chances. I'm more a fan now than I ever was, but I still don't know shit.

 

[candylandriots]

I have made 18 consecutive incorrect bets on the World Cup -- and I'm excluding a few fliers on long shot parlays.

 

[Cotillion]

I have made 18 consecutive incorrect bets on the World Cup -- and I'm excluding a few fliers on long shot parlays.

Ever seen the movie “Let it Ride”? At one point he goes around and asks all his degenerate horse racing “friends” for their bets, and then bets on the horses they aren’t. Might be time.

 

[ElUno20]

Stop betting on goals/games. It's too stressful. Alternatively, do some research ahead of time and try to live bet corners if a game is really far off from where you think it should be.

 

[candylandriots]

Ever seen the movie “Let it Ride”? At one point he goes around and asks all his degenerate horse racing “friends” for their bets, and then bets on the horses they aren’t. Might be time.

Ha - I was joking with one of my friends about this yesterday. He’s a Seahawks fan, I’m a 49ers fan. He told me, “bet against the Seahawks, please!” I did a 49ers/Raiders parlay and broke my losing streak, though I guess it’s still going for the WC.

Stop betting on goals/games. It's too stressful. Alternatively, do some research ahead of time and try to live bet corners if a game is really far off from where you think it should be.

I’ve just been betting for a team to win/lose/draw. It’s really an extraordinary run. I couldn’t have tried to do worse. I didn’t even bet the Saudi/Argentina game. And just to be clear here, we are talking about bets in the €5-10 range. I’m not going to be out on the streets here. It’s just for fun.

 

[candylandriots]

I can start posting my bets here if anyone wants to go to school on my futility. I’ve got Serbia in the first one today, and that’s going pretty much as I would have expected.

2nd game: South Korea
3rd game: going with the upset draw
4th game: Portugal

 

[Jeff Van GULLY]

Yeah, gambling has been tough this WC. A lot of down or mixed days for me since the tournament began. With Corners, it started out great and there's been a lot of counterintuitive results since day 3.

Here's some data on the upcoming Brazil-Switzerland match:







I am taking O 2.5 goals in this match.

 

[Jeff Van GULLY]

Taking Both Teams to Score in Portugal-Uruguay.

 

[candylandriots]

I'm feeling confident now that my streak will end at 21 consecutive losses. I'm the Baltimore Orioles of WC wagering.

 

[loshjott]

Won my first wager today - on the USA. One for three so far.

 

[DJnVa]

I had Pulisic first goal and US to win at +750

 

[Jeff Van GULLY]

Dare I post again? Been a brutal tournament for gambling and am now down after a lot of froth.

Taking Argentina 1H goal -120 (Caesar's). A lot of low scoring games so far and 1H hasn't produced as many goals all tournament but I'll keep banging away hoping one gets through the net. Argentina needs a win to secure its spot.

 

[BrazilianSoxFan]

Brazil will rest all the starters against Cameroon. I would still favor Brazil, but I'm biased.

 

[Jeff Van GULLY]

I'm on a very large Croatia win, draw no bet. Probably means you should fade!

Over 1.5 goals in Japan/Spain + Spain ML parlay

Germany to win 1-0, 2-0, or 3,0 +165

Davies O 0.5 shots on goal

Morocco -0.25

 

[Arroyo Con Frijoles]

I went for a Croatia win Davies O 1.5 SOG parlay so I'll join you

 

[Jeff Van GULLY]

Ghana O .5 goals
BTTS Ghana/Uruguay
Serbia/Swiss BTTS

 

[Jeff Van GULLY]

Portugal-Swiss BTTS

 

[Jeff Van GULLY]

England-France BTTS is still only -120. Only going to go up between now and Saturday.

 

[BrazilianSoxFan]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JClM7vqpLD0

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

I know it's nothing to you big moneybagses but even though it was only $10 I was proud of this one. Kind of played out how I thought -- one early and one late.