Would you trade Jaylen+ for Durant?

Would you trade Jaylen+ for Durant?

  • Yes

    Votes: 123 26.3%
  • No

    Votes: 285 60.9%
  • Not Sure - this is all moving too fast for me!

    Votes: 60 12.8%

  • Total voters
    468

nighthob

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Brogdon is good for missing 25-30 games, White is generally more in the 15-20 range, and then you have Durant, who missed a third of the season last year (and that’s probably a good guide going forward given that he missed half a season the year before).

By default you’re running Tatum into the ground again to carry that team, which was their biggest problem last year. They began playoff rotations in January, and that worked all the way until game two of the finals when the Warriors made their big adjustment, going to a regular season rotation and forcing Boston to play harder, and they just ran out of gas.

Right now they have the depth to reduce Tatum’s minutes and lighten his load, and that’s where their title hopes are.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Brogdon is good for missing 25-30 games, White is generally more in the 15-20 range, and then you have Durant, who missed a third of the season last year (and that’s probably a good guide going forward given that he missed half a season the year before).

By default you’re running Tatum into the ground again to carry that team, which was their biggest problem last year. They began playoff rotations in January, and that worked all the way until game two of the finals when the Warriors made their big adjustment, going to a regular season rotation and forcing Boston to play harder, and they just ran out of gas.

Right now they have the depth to reduce Tatum’s minutes and lighten his load, and that’s where their title hopes are.
That's a pretty myopic view. If you get Durant, then by default your title hopes no longer reside with a fully fresh Tatum. You could also give him rest during the season and not play for the 1 seed. If you get Durant, the calculus changes.
 

lovegtm

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Is there really a super-robust market for Durant?

It's hard for me to many teams who are topping Brown+White+pick right now.

- Miami can with Bam+picks if the Simmons thing is resolved. Unclear they want to do that. Herro+picks won't get it done imo.

- NO can with Ingram+Lakers picks. They don't seem so into it, but that can change.

- Toronto isn't trading Barnes imo. That leaves Siakam+Anunoby+draft equity. That probably is around equal value to the Brown offer. I don't think Toronto is a contender if they do that deal.

- Phoenix could do all the picks + role players, but Brooklyn doesn't seem to want that.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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That's a pretty myopic view. If you get Durant, then by default your title hopes no longer reside with a fully fresh Tatum. You could also give him rest during the season and not play for the 1 seed. If you get Durant, the calculus changes.
Yeah KD is a transcendent offensive player, basically to offense what KG was for defense. And we already have a great defense (I see Brown/White to Durant/Brogdon as no worse than neutral). I think it greatly increases the team's margin for error in the regular season. Durant + our non-Tatum players can win a ton of games. Tatum + our would-be non-Durant players can also win a ton of games. Together I think they mop the floor with teams most nights. I love Jaylen, but you simply can't say the same for him.
 

BigSoxFan

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Is there really a super-robust market for Durant?

It's hard for me to many teams who are topping Brown+White+pick right now.

- Miami can with Bam+picks if the Simmons thing is resolved. Unclear they want to do that. Herro+picks won't get it done imo.

- NO can with Ingram+Lakers picks. They don't seem so into it, but that can change.

- Toronto isn't trading Barnes imo. That leaves Siakam+Anunoby+draft equity. That probably is around equal value to the Brown offer. I don't think Toronto is a contender if they do that deal.

- Phoenix could do all the picks + role players, but Brooklyn doesn't seem to want that.
I think that’s why we’re in a bit of a holding pattern. Nets either 1) don’t really want to move KD or 2) are trying to get Celtics/Raptors/Pels to blink. If the Celtics and/or Raptors pull out, the market likely crashes, which is why I’m kind of surprised a deal hasn’t been done.
 

TripleOT

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Yeah KD is a transcendent offensive player, basically to offense what KG was for defense. And we already have a great defense (I see Brown/White to Durant/Brogdon as no worse than neutral). I think it greatly increases the team's margin for error in the regular season. Durant + our non-Tatum players can win a ton of games. Tatum + our would-be non-Durant players can also win a ton of games. Together I think they mop the floor with teams most nights. I love Jaylen, but you simply can't say the same for him.
I can say that the Celtics will mop the floor with teams most nights, since last season’s Celtics, after the new year, did mop the floor with teams most nights, with a weaker bench than the current squad.

Swapping KD for Brown is more about closing out playoff series. I expect the Celtics to be a 60 wind team or more, either as currently constituted, or with KD for Brown and White. Durant is a playoff closer, in a way only a few NBA players can be. I absolutely love Jaylen Brown, but Durant is a better way to a title, as long as another top four roster piece isn’t needed to get him.

The designated rookie extension rule has created a situation where one of the Nets’s stated trade criteria, a young all star, puts JB and Ingram as the best two available players. Boston should play hardball, since they’re a championship favorite already. JB, White, a number one pick, and that’s it.

If Boston doesn’t make a trade, there’s a good chance that JB is very happy playing in Boston, after Brad acquired his buddy Brogdon. If they win a title in one of the next two years, why would he want to sign elsewhere? If they come close, why not stay and run it back until getting over the hump? Brown is young enough to max out with a contending or defending champion Boston team, and move to the ATL or wherever in his early 30s with plenty of thread left on his tires.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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That last line is also why I am very intrigued. Durant is lethal from the line and he gets calls. Combine him with Tatum and our late game woes likely go away.
The minute he puts on the green his FTA will drop by 65%.

/the refs hate Boston game thread take
 

teddykgb

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I think too many posts are assuming we are the alpha dogs in the East just because we were just in the finals. In my view we are in a crowded upper tier but not really separated from Milwaukee, Miami, maybe even Philly in any meaningful way. Atlanta may come back stronger, Toronto as well. An unchanged nets side could be an incredible team if everyone played… there are a lot of paths to the as constituted Celtics being a middle seed and getting knocked out. I think we almost assuredly lose to the Bucks with Middleton last year. Of course we have also made changes which should be upgrades but there’s a little too much chatter here that seems too confident of our being at the top and I think maybe the results of some of those series are papering over how razor thin those margins were
 

PedroKsBambino

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Is there really a super-robust market for Durant?

It's hard for me to many teams who are topping Brown+White+pick right now.

- Miami can with Bam+picks if the Simmons thing is resolved. Unclear they want to do that. Herro+picks won't get it done imo.

- NO can with Ingram+Lakers picks. They don't seem so into it, but that can change.

- Toronto isn't trading Barnes imo. That leaves Siakam+Anunoby+draft equity. That probably is around equal value to the Brown offer. I don't think Toronto is a contender if they do that deal.

- Phoenix could do all the picks + role players, but Brooklyn doesn't seem to want that.
I agree, and that's consistent with what several of the writers/podcasters are also saying. I believe the huge unknown is whether Nets believe they have to move Durant, or whether they really only want to if they get a giant return (keeping him otherwise). Short-term they should make it look like the second--but I have no idea which of those is true.

In terms of "who" I do believe Durant is so unusual that many teams have sniffed around (I suspect that is all Celtics have done). So in addition to the above, off top of my head and not solving for cap, etc. elements, I'd think there's other frameworks one can imagine...

- Wizards could do a pick-heavy offer with Porzingis, Kuzma etc.....doesn't make a ton of sense to me for Nets
- Warriors have a great set of pieces to do it and supposedly sign-off from Steph/Draymond
- Memphis has the pieces, and also would find 4 years of control very interesting. Whether KD is willing to go there (because, in reality, that does matter) is totally unknown. But for a team who will never sign a marquee FA, you have to think about it
- Portland has Simons/others which is a little interesting but probably not enough if jaylen is available (but could likely put in more picks)
 

Cellar-Door

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I think too many posts are assuming we are the alpha dogs in the East just because we were just in the finals. In my view we are in a crowded upper tier but not really separated from Milwaukee, Miami, maybe even Philly in any meaningful way. Atlanta may come back stronger, Toronto as well. An unchanged nets side could be an incredible team if everyone played… there are a lot of paths to the as constituted Celtics being a middle seed and getting knocked out. I think we almost assuredly lose to the Bucks with Middleton last year. Of course we have also made changes which should be upgrades but there’s a little too much chatter here that seems too confident of our being at the top and I think maybe the results of some of those series are papering over how razor thin those margins were
yeah, Could the current Celtics team win the title... absolutely. On the other hand, we went 7 games in 2 series against teams that had injury issues when we were relatively healthy (yes TL was dinged up, but by NBA standards having your 3rd or 4th guy limited is healthy).
 

PedroKsBambino

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That's all fair, but the reality is that Vegas---who is focusing very hard on questions like "who is better now"---does put the Celts at the top of East and depending on which odds, top of league. So while there's a lot of uncertainty the external assessment is consistent with the theme of comments here.

While often there's homer-iffic takes this is not, objectively, one of those times.
 

Devizier

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I think too many posts are assuming we are the alpha dogs in the East just because we were just in the finals. In my view we are in a crowded upper tier but not really separated from Milwaukee, Miami, maybe even Philly in any meaningful way.
I actually think the Celtics are meaningfully ahead of Miami and Philadelphia, but a clear 1B behind Milwaukee.
 

Cellar-Door

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That's all fair, but the reality is that Vegas---who is focusing very hard on questions like "who is better now"---does put the Celts at the top of East and depending on which odds, top of league. So while there's a lot of uncertainty the external assessment is consistent with the theme of comments here.

While often there's homer-iffic takes this is not, objectively, one of those times.
Actually Vegas is focusing very hard on questions like how do we make money while minimizing risk (which in part means they are also factoring in the chances of a KD trade). BRK was the title favorite deep into the year even when it was clear they weren't the best team.

But yes, Boston is one of the favorites... but not an overwhelming one at all. If they got Durant they'd likely be the overwhelming one.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I don't think anyone is confused about how Vegas works--I was noting that the lines are not really consistent with a bunch of the posts suggesting there's a big group of East teams clustered.
 

Cellar-Door

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I don't think anyone is confused about how Vegas works--I was noting that the lines are not really consistent with a bunch of the posts suggesting there's a big group of East teams clustered. Your prior comment made it seem like you didn't realize that.
My prior comment was pretty clear, it was that the Celtics could easily win the title, but they could (and recently almost did) lose to several teams, most notably the Bucks.
 

JM3

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Even if the Celtics are title favorites (currently +450) & even if those were true odds, that still means they're only expected to win the title 22% of the time.

Adding in the fact that those odds consider the chances of acquiring Durant, & are heavily juiced (usually around 20% if I recall correctly), their true odds are probably more like 15% of winning a championship this year as constructed.
 

JM3

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Apparently I underestimated quite how much those odds are juiced. 15% pretty sweet guess, though (even if it factors in the KD rumors).

Team Odds % Title Adjusted
Celtics +450
22.22%​
15.30%​
Warriors +650
15.38%​
10.59%​
Clippers +650
15.38%​
10.59%​
Bucks +650
15.38%​
10.59%​
Suns +850
11.76%​
8.10%​
Lakers +1000
10.00%​
6.88%​
Heat +1400
7.14%​
4.92%​
76ers +1400
7.14%​
4.92%​
Nets +1600
6.25%​
4.30%​
Nuggets +1800
5.56%​
3.82%​
Mavs +2200
4.55%​
3.13%​
Grizzlies +2200
4.55%​
3.13%​
Raptors +3000
3.33%​
2.29%​
T'wolves +3500
2.86%​
1.97%​
Bulls +4000
2.50%​
1.72%​
Pelicans +4000
2.50%​
1.72%​
Hawks +5000
2.00%​
1.38%​
Knicks +6600
1.52%​
1.04%​
Blazers +8000
1.25%​
0.86%​
Cavs +10000
1.00%​
0.69%​
Jazz +12500
0.80%​
0.55%​
Hornets +25000
0.40%​
0.28%​
Wizards +25000
0.40%​
0.28%​
Pistons +50000
0.20%​
0.14%​
Rockets +50000
0.20%​
0.14%​
Pacers +50000
0.20%​
0.14%​
Thunder +50000
0.20%​
0.14%​
Magic +50000
0.20%​
0.14%​
Kings +50000
0.20%​
0.14%​
Spurs +50000
0.20%​
0.14%​
. .
145.28%​
100.00%​


Odds used are current BetMGM odds.
 

djbayko

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Apparently I underestimated quite how much those odds are juiced. 15% pretty sweet guess, though (even if it factors in the KD rumors).

Team Odds % Title Adjusted
Celtics +450
22.22%​
15.30%​
Warriors +650
15.38%​
10.59%​
Clippers +650
15.38%​
10.59%​
Bucks +650
15.38%​
10.59%​
Suns +850
11.76%​
8.10%​
Lakers +1000
10.00%​
6.88%​
Heat +1400
7.14%​
4.92%​
76ers +1400
7.14%​
4.92%​
Nets +1600
6.25%​
4.30%​
Nuggets +1800
5.56%​
3.82%​
Mavs +2200
4.55%​
3.13%​
Grizzlies +2200
4.55%​
3.13%​
Raptors +3000
3.33%​
2.29%​
T'wolves +3500
2.86%​
1.97%​
Bulls +4000
2.50%​
1.72%​
Pelicans +4000
2.50%​
1.72%​
Hawks +5000
2.00%​
1.38%​
Knicks +6600
1.52%​
1.04%​
Blazers +8000
1.25%​
0.86%​
Cavs +10000
1.00%​
0.69%​
Jazz +12500
0.80%​
0.55%​
Hornets +25000
0.40%​
0.28%​
Wizards +25000
0.40%​
0.28%​
Pistons +50000
0.20%​
0.14%​
Rockets +50000
0.20%​
0.14%​
Pacers +50000
0.20%​
0.14%​
Thunder +50000
0.20%​
0.14%​
Magic +50000
0.20%​
0.14%​
Kings +50000
0.20%​
0.14%​
Spurs +50000
0.20%​
0.14%​
. .
145.28%​
100.00%​


Odds used are current BetMGM odds.
Out of curiosity, where are you getting those percentages from? The actual implied win probability for +450 odds is 18.18%. It looks like all of those percentages are too high. The Celtics’ adjusted win % (vig removed) should be 13.94%.

Doesn’t change your overall point though. In fact, it marginally strengthens it.

Edit: "vig" not "big"
 
Last edited:

Jimbodandy

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I think that what's getting lost in the "Celtics took 7 games each to beat injured Miami and Milwaukee" takes is that the Celtics have improved in the offseason. They addressed real weaknesses without giving up anything from the roster.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I think that what's getting lost in the "Celtics took 7 games each to beat injured Miami and Milwaukee" takes is that the Celtics have improved in the offseason. They addressed real weaknesses without giving up anything from the roster.
The flip-side to this is that they can add a near-GOAT offensive player to that already-improved roster and come out of the offseason significantly better than expected.
 

nighthob

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Yeah KD is a transcendent offensive player, basically to offense what KG was for defense. And we already have a great defense (I see Brown/White to Durant/Brogdon as no worse than neutral). I think it greatly increases the team's margin for error in the regular season. Durant + our non-Tatum players can win a ton of games. Tatum + our would-be non-Durant players can also win a ton of games. Together I think they mop the floor with teams most nights. I love Jaylen, but you simply can't say the same for him.
Except that if it’s the healthy non-Tatum players then Jayson will be logging another 3800 minute season and we just saw the end of that movie. I think everyone’s in agreement on Brown plus White. Where people depart is where White stays and healthy, important rotational bodies leave. Durant’s lower body injuries are mounting, you can’t really count on him for more than 50-55 games anymore. Same goes with Brogdon. Now add in White’s more modest tendencies to miss games and the necessity of strictly limiting Al’s minutes.

That’s a team that Tatum is going to have to carry as by default lots of minutes are going to be logged by scrubs. And it will no longer be so great defensively. So KD is going to have to play a lot more defense or they’re going to have to play .900 ball in the 40 games a year or so that all three linchpins are healthy. So, yeah, I draw the line at Brown, White, pick(s). Durant in Brooklyn is leading a team that will fight to avoid the play-in game. It’s not like the Nets as constituted are a threat. I can well understand why they want to hold on to him. I’m all for letting them until they become reasonable.
 

Cellar-Door

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I think that what's getting lost in the "Celtics took 7 games each to beat injured Miami and Milwaukee" takes is that the Celtics have improved in the offseason. They addressed real weaknesses without giving up anything from the roster.
Maybe? Also though they might not have the good injury luck, and the Bucks got better, Heat may well get better too. I like Brogdon a lot.... he's not a star, and I don't think he makes anywhere near the impact that say a healthy Khris Middleton does.
The Celtics' offseason so far should make people slightly higher on their chances to win than last year, but it hasn't been some seismic shift in power.
 

tbb345

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Is there really a super-robust market for Durant?

It's hard for me to many teams who are topping Brown+White+pick right now.

- Miami can with Bam+picks if the Simmons thing is resolved. Unclear they want to do that. Herro+picks won't get it done imo.

- NO can with Ingram+Lakers picks. They don't seem so into it, but that can change.

- Toronto isn't trading Barnes imo. That leaves Siakam+Anunoby+draft equity. That probably is around equal value to the Brown offer. I don't think Toronto is a contender if they do that deal.

- Phoenix could do all the picks + role players, but Brooklyn doesn't seem to want that.
I love Jaylen (I wouldn’t trade him for KD honestly but that’s more due to the fact I want to see how this roster performs) but I think Siakam+Anunoby+picks is worth more than Jaylen+White+a pick.

It’s kind of moot because it seems like Brooklyn wouldn’t even take that offer if the reporting is to be believed.

My read of this is that the Nets don’t feel like they need to trade KD (and really don’t want to) and won’t go through with a trade unless they get a team to pretty vastly overpay. Personally, I have no interest in doing that. I don’t think it’s great business to trade the farm for a 34 year old with major recent injuries (and thays without getting into the risk of his personality/potentially wanting to leave)
 

Euclis20

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yeah, Could the current Celtics team win the title... absolutely. On the other hand, we went 7 games in 2 series against teams that had injury issues when we were relatively healthy (yes TL was dinged up, but by NBA standards having your 3rd or 4th guy limited is healthy).
Man I hate this revisionist history, especially with the Heat. Lowry and Herro missed time, but they aren't any more important to the Heat than Smart (who missed two games in that series) or Timelord are to Boston, and Butler didn't seem any more banged up than Tatum. Jaylen had been dealing with a hamstring injury since the Brooklyn series. Both Boston and Miami were beaten up by the end, but we only talk about Miami's injuries because they need the excuse.

The Bucks can have a legit gripe with Middleton missing the whole series, but Smart/TL still missed a combined 5 games in that series, and though it went 7 games, the Celtics were +55 (compared with +18 in the Nets sweep) - the Bucks were lucky that series went 7. If they played 10 times with Middleton out, the Bucks probably lose in 5 or 6 games most of the time, and no one cares about Middleton being out except for Bucks fans.
 

JM3

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Out of curiosity, where are you getting those percentages from? The actual implied win probability for +450 odds is 18.18%. It looks like all of those percentages are too high. The Celtics’ adjusted win % (big removed) should be 13.94%.

Doesn’t change your overall point though. In fact, it marginally strengthens it.
I made them up because they felt right? lol

But yeah, it looks like I did the math wrong conceptually. I can fix it when I get home later.
 
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Maybe? Also though they might not have the good injury luck, and the Bucks got better, Heat may well get better too. I like Brogdon a lot.... he's not a star, and I don't think he makes anywhere near the impact that say a healthy Khris Middleton does.
The Celtics' offseason so far should make people slightly higher on their chances to win than last year, but it hasn't been some seismic shift in power.
I agree with this. The seismic shift was their own internal maturation and improvement from January, plus the addition of White. The result of which was that they were good enough to win it all, even with some poor injury luck in the playoffs and bad execution in the Finals. Brogdon and Gallinari are nice additions that should accelerate an already expected improvement from last year’s team. The kinds of pieces that help you avoid seven games against the Heat and Bucks and get you game 4 or 5 in the Finals.
 

PedroKsBambino

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No question it's wide open; Celtics and Bucks are 2-3x as likely as anyone else in east to win from a Vegas perspective, consistent with the point a couple of us made.

For me, Miami has a couple questions: first, what will they actually look like? They could certainly end up getting Mitchell for example. But if they come back with no material additions, they are for me worse than last year (Butler and in particular Lowry older, Tucker gone, highest probability improvement is possibility Oladipo back fully heathy). As to the specific series with Celts, Miami would argue Butler and Herro will, on average, be healthier than they were last year....and I think the ceiling here remains lower than Celtics and Bucks so they need teams to come back to them absent another acquisition.

Philly to me is better, possibly a lot better. They have a much deeper and more coherent rotation. The questions there are twofold: 1 ) does the group gell for real as we think they will on paper? NBA year after year teaches us that takes time and doesn't always happen 2) will Embiid and Harden reverse their historical trend of weak playoff performances? I know some argue not true of Embiid; I feel it remains a question. Whatever one thinks of 2, 1) is a real thing and we haven't seen anything from them as a unit at the level you'd want to. I don't rule it out, but it's a real uncertainty we don't have with Celtics or Bucks.
 

Cellar-Door

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Man I hate this revisionist history, especially with the Heat. Lowry and Herro missed time, but they aren't any more important to the Heat than Smart (who missed two games in that series) or Timelord are to Boston, and Butler didn't seem any more banged up than Tatum. Jaylen had been dealing with a hamstring injury since the Brooklyn series. Both Boston and Miami were beaten up by the end, but we only talk about Miami's injuries because they need the excuse.

The Bucks can have a legit gripe with Middleton missing the whole series, but Smart/TL still missed a combined 5 games in that series, and though it went 7 games, the Celtics were +55 (compared with +18 in the Nets sweep) - the Bucks were lucky that series went 7. If they played 10 times with Middleton out, the Bucks probably lose in 5 or 6 games most of the time, and no one cares about Middleton being out except for Bucks fans.
I think the Herro injury was way bigger than any Celtics injury... he played less than 3 healthy games (of which MIA won 2), he was their 2nd leading scorer in the regular season (20.7 PPG v. Butler's 21.4 PPG), he's much more like just losing Brown for most of the series than losing Smart (that's more similar to Lowry).
 

Euclis20

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No question it's wide open; Celtics and Bucks are 2-3x as likely as anyone else in east to win from a Vegas perspective, consistent with the point a couple of us made.

For me, Miami has a couple questions: first, what will they actually look like? They could certainly end up getting Mitchell for example. But if they come back with no material additions, they are for me worse than last year (Butler and in particular Lowry older, Tucker gone, highest probability improvement is possibility Oladipo back fully heathy). As to the specific series with Celts, Miami would argue Butler and Herro will, on average, be healthier than they were last year....and I think the ceiling here remains lower than Celtics and Bucks so they need teams to come back to them absent another acquisition.

Philly to me is better, possibly a lot better. They have a much deeper and more coherent rotation. The questions there are twofold: 1 ) does the group gell for real as we think they will on paper? NBA year after year teaches us that takes time and doesn't always happen 2) will Embiid and Harden reverse their historical trend of weak playoff performances? I know some argue not true of Embiid; I feel it remains a question. Whatever one thinks of 2, 1) is a real thing and we haven't seen anything from them as a unit at the level you'd want to. I don't rule it out, but it's a real uncertainty we don't have with Celtics or Bucks.
Agree with most of this. Miami can argue that Butler will be healthier/better next year, but that's gonna be a stretch. Injured or not, this was by far his best postseason (27.4 points vs a previous high of 22.9 way back in 2015, while shooting a career best 50.6% from the field), he'll be 33 in September, and he's played 60+ games once in the last 5 years. Herro doesn't look like a guy who will ever be a playoff star, and Bam's offensive development has stalled. Unless there is a major change, there's nowhere to go but down for them.

Philly is definitely the wild card.

I think the Herro injury was way bigger than any Celtics injury... he played less than 3 healthy games (of which MIA won 2), he was their 2nd leading scorer in the regular season (20.7 PPG v. Butler's 21.4 PPG), he's much more like just losing Brown for most of the series than losing Smart (that's more similar to Lowry).
Herro's injury was definitely the biggest of the series, but was he hurt for the whole playoffs (I don't remember the exact timeline)? He's been brutal the last couple of postseasons, and at the end of the day he still comes off the bench for them. Winning 6th man of the year is like winning an award for being the best middle reliever - it's great to have, but let's not pretend that a bench player can be more than the 4th or 5th most important player on the roster (except for very, very rare cases). He doesn't deserve to be mentioned in the same sentence as Jaylen Brown. If that was remotely the case, Herro would already be up in Brooklyn and Miami would be starting next year as the prohibitive favorites with Durant/Butler/Bam.
 

PedroKsBambino

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For me, since both ends count, rather than just looking at PPG I'd look at things like Raptor, which put Herro's overall impact a lot closer to Grant Williams than to Brown. That to me overstates things but Herro is (as Lowe and others have noted this offseason) a really polarizing guy who has real limitations.

Lowry's loss/reduction in effectiveness was big, I suspect bigger than Herro for that particular Miami team, but I also am not sure what Lowry is going forward so not sure how to think about that as to this upcoming year.
 

DJnVa

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Is there really a super-robust market for Durant?

A take by the Nets writer in The Athletic:

That’s the other part of all this. The Suns are all but out after re-signing DeAndre Ayton. The Heat don’t have the assets, and Brooklyn can’t acquire Bam Adebayo without also trading Simmons because of the CBA rule prohibiting teams from trading for two players on max rookie extensions. The Raptors don’t want to trade Scottie Barnes. So who is left? Right now the Celtics appear to be the only dance partner for the Nets, even if four quarters don’t equal a dollar in this trade.
Durant Roundtable
 

Cellar-Door

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For me, since both ends count, rather than just looking at PPG I'd look at things like Raptor, which put Herro's overall impact a lot closer to Grant Williams than to Brown. That to me overstates things but Herro is (as Lowe and others have noted this offseason) a really polarizing guy who has real limitations.

Lowry's loss/reduction in effectiveness was big, I suspect bigger than Herro for that particular Miami team, but I also am not sure what Lowry is going forward so not sure how to think about that as to this upcoming year.
I am usually a big proponent of "PPG are overrated".... but... a team's 2nd leading scorer for the whole season is really important, far far more important than a Grant Williams even if both are hypothetically bench guys. He scored nearly 20% of their points this year (Grant scored 7%), he's a massive portion of the ability to score of a team that wasn't very good at scoring, and given how important scoring from your best scorers is come playoff time that's a big impact.

I get it, everyone wants there to be no reason that the Celtics went to the finals other than that they were amazing and are a lock to do it again... but that's not how the NBA works, the margains are super thin and injuries to your top guys is a huge factor every year.

The Celtics went to the finals last year for 2 reasons....
1. They were really good
2. The other top teams in the East (MIL, PHI, MIA) dealt with injuries to their top scorers which helped BOS.

That's true most years (other than maybe some LeBron years)... you need to be good, and you need some luck, and tricking yourself into thinking that there was no luck involved is a bad way to plan going forward. The moves this offseason have been good because most were made with the realization that they needed more guys who could get buckets if they want to beat MIL again.
A Durant trade decision will be based on balancing "getting a top 5 offensive player in the league with solid D" with "giving up how much depth?"
 

teddykgb

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It’s also super difficult to project Horfords age curve. He was absolutely critical to what we were doing and could of course fall off a cliff anytime. You hope it’s gradual but one way we get significantly worse in spite of the additions is if time catches up with Horford rapidly. He was ridiculously good last year and I don’t think you can just count on that next season
 

nighthob

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Philly’s very real injury problem allowed Miami to reach the ECF. It didn’t benefit Boston all that much.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I get it, everyone wants there to be no reason that the Celtics went to the finals other than that they were amazing and are a lock to do it again...
Exactly zero people are saying anything like this. Get a grip - we’re better than that around here
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Except that if it’s the healthy non-Tatum players then Jayson will be logging another 3800 minute season and we just saw the end of that movie. I think everyone’s in agreement on Brown plus White. Where people depart is where White stays and healthy, important rotational bodies leave. Durant’s lower body injuries are mounting, you can’t really count on him for more than 50-55 games anymore. Same goes with Brogdon. Now add in White’s more modest tendencies to miss games and the necessity of strictly limiting Al’s minutes.

That’s a team that Tatum is going to have to carry as by default lots of minutes are going to be logged by scrubs. And it will no longer be so great defensively. So KD is going to have to play a lot more defense or they’re going to have to play .900 ball in the 40 games a year or so that all three linchpins are healthy. So, yeah, I draw the line at Brown, White, pick(s). Durant in Brooklyn is leading a team that will fight to avoid the play-in game. It’s not like the Nets as constituted are a threat. I can well understand why they want to hold on to him. I’m all for letting them until they become reasonable.
In full agreement here re: cost and I’d wager POBOBS feels the same. That said I’m sure he could be talked out of an extra draft pick or two, just not an extra heavy rotation player or two.
 

bakahump

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He takes alot of flack.....rightfully so.

BUT assuming a Pels trade of Durant for Zion and Picks, the Nets need to jettison Simmons due to the weird Rookie Designation. Would you offer a couple of 1sts and ???? (anything??) Juhann? for Ben?

Would he help this iteration of the Celts? (obv not shooting I ked I ked......) A "Draymond" 5? A defensive wing in to Spell Tatum or Brown?

I am probably vastly underselling Bens worth (though it cant be high....). And Bens probably not thrilled about becoming a Bench guy.....and as I say its all assuming the Pels want and could make Zion+ for Durant work.

But crazy as I am I still like Ben as a player. Especially if his value has tanked.
 

Cellar-Door

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He takes alot of flack.....rightfully so.

BUT assuming a Pels trade of Durant for Zion and Picks, the Nets need to jettison Simmons due to the weird Rookie Designation. Would you offer a couple of 1sts and ???? (anything??) Juhann? for Ben?


Would he help this iteration of the Celts? (obv not shooting I ked I ked......) A "Draymond" 5? A defensive wing in to Spell Tatum or Brown?

I am probably vastly underselling Bens worth (though it cant be high....). And Bens probably not thrilled about becoming a Bench guy.....and as I say its all assuming the Pels want and could make Zion+ for Durant work.

But crazy as I am I still like Ben as a player. Especially if his value has tanked.
He makes $35M. Salary match means you'd have to give up Horford plus (probably Grant?) or both White and Smart.

A Simmons trade isn't happening.
 

Jimbodandy

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The flip-side to this is that they can add a near-GOAT offensive player to that already-improved roster and come out of the offseason significantly better than expected.
Oh I'm not saying "we're better so we don't need KD". I'm just disputing that the Cs are lucky to have squeaked through while everyone else was broken. This core has gone to a bunch of conference finals and added two guys that give things that we need, one of those guys was like tailor-made for this team. We didn't stand pat or get worse. We got better.

Maybe? Also though they might not have the good injury luck, and the Bucks got better, Heat may well get better too. I like Brogdon a lot.... he's not a star, and I don't think he makes anywhere near the impact that say a healthy Khris Middleton does.
The Celtics' offseason so far should make people slightly higher on their chances to win than last year, but it hasn't been some seismic shift in power.
Agreed. I'm not buying into the Vegas odds one bit. Who bets on whom is irrelevant to me. I wouldn't even call us the favorite in the east. I'd call us a favorite, but not the favorite.

This "we might be a mid-seed" talk seems to disregard that we got better. Not wayyyy better, but better. It's not like Giannis and Embiid were on crutches and we got to the finals by default. Lots of teams were banged up and tired.
 

nighthob

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In full agreement here re: cost and I’d wager POBOBS feels the same. That said I’m sure he could be talked out of an extra draft pick or two, just not an extra heavy rotation player or two.
Right, and no one would argue with the price of Brown and White as well as #1s in ‘24 and ‘26. It’s where people are looking to pack Smart and Grant Williams on the plane rather than DW.
 

JCizzle

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He takes alot of flack.....rightfully so.

BUT assuming a Pels trade of Durant for Zion and Picks, the Nets need to jettison Simmons due to the weird Rookie Designation. Would you offer a couple of 1sts and ???? (anything??) Juhann? for Ben?

Would he help this iteration of the Celts? (obv not shooting I ked I ked......) A "Draymond" 5? A defensive wing in to Spell Tatum or Brown?

I am probably vastly underselling Bens worth (though it cant be high....). And Bens probably not thrilled about becoming a Bench guy.....and as I say its all assuming the Pels want and could make Zion+ for Durant work.

But crazy as I am I still like Ben as a player. Especially if his value has tanked.
Just an FYI, but since Zion just signed an extension he can't be traded for six months. At least I'm pretty sure that's how it works.
 

lovegtm

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I love Jaylen (I wouldn’t trade him for KD honestly but that’s more due to the fact I want to see how this roster performs) but I think Siakam+Anunoby+picks is worth more than Jaylen+White+a pick.

It’s kind of moot because it seems like Brooklyn wouldn’t even take that offer if the reporting is to be believed.

My read of this is that the Nets don’t feel like they need to trade KD (and really don’t want to) and won’t go through with a trade unless they get a team to pretty vastly overpay. Personally, I have no interest in doing that. I don’t think it’s great business to trade the farm for a 34 year old with major recent injuries (and thays without getting into the risk of his personality/potentially wanting to leave)
Agree that Siakam+OG+picks is a bit stronger.

The Raptors might not make it out of the play-in with a KD/Barnes/FVV/Trent core though, so I don't think they'd offer the above deal.
 

lovegtm

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Just an FYI, but since Zion just signed an extension he can't be traded for six months. At least I'm pretty sure that's how it works.
That's right, and you'd have the same Simmons designated player issue.

NO can easily get Durant if they want: Ingram + Lakers' picks + some of their own. They just don't seem super interested.
 

JM3

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He takes alot of flack.....rightfully so.

BUT assuming a Pels trade of Durant for Zion and Picks, the Nets need to jettison Simmons due to the weird Rookie Designation. Would you offer a couple of 1sts and ???? (anything??) Juhann? for Ben?

Would he help this iteration of the Celts? (obv not shooting I ked I ked......) A "Draymond" 5? A defensive wing in to Spell Tatum or Brown?

I am probably vastly underselling Bens worth (though it cant be high....). And Bens probably not thrilled about becoming a Bench guy.....and as I say its all assuming the Pels want and could make Zion+ for Durant work.

But crazy as I am I still like Ben as a player. Especially if his value has tanked.
You'd also have to salary match, which is probably Horford. Not really sure how well that would work for either team.
 

ehaz

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Per the CBA rules, how many 1sts can the Celtics actually offer? Personally, I'd walk away at the reported Jaylen + Smart + Grant(?) + picks counter but I'd be OK with increasing the draft comp in the Jaylen + White offer as somewhat of a middle ground. Given Brogdon, Durant, and TL's injury concerns and Al's age I definitely would not add any additional rotation guys. Pick swaps are a bit tricky since the Nets gave up 4(?) of their own 1sts in the Harden and O'Neal trades.

My best guess is nothing further comes of this and Durant plays out the whole season in Brooklyn. Maybe the Nets sit down with Durant and say: "give us one more year. We understand your preferred destinations are Phoenix and Miami, but there is not a deal to be had with either because [Ayton and Simmons/Bam situations]. This will resolve itself next summer and we'll trade you to wherever if you still want out."
 

the moops

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Agree that Siakam+OG+picks is a bit stronger.
I'm not sure about this. Siakam and OG are both free agents in 2 years, just like Jaylen, and all three are going to get paid. White has an additional year of control at a reasonable rate.

Brown is the best player of the bunch, followed by Siakam, OG, and then White. I guess the big question is how much growth does OG have left in him and is it enough to make up for the difference between Brown and SIakam
 

bakahump

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You'd also have to salary match, which is probably Horford. Not really sure how well that would work for either team.
Yea totally miffed the salary.....was still thinking Ben made around the Trade exception....which we let expire.....

So uhh yeah.

As you say really only have Al left to build salary around and would need to add money to him to get Simmons (as @Cellar-Door mentioned).

While I still love Al from this last seasons run...I am not opposed to using him to get a younger similar (PF) player. But Simmons aint that.

So no fit.
 

EvilEmpire

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They just don't seem super interested.
Or KD isn't interested in them and they know it. Trading for a guy who doesn't want to be on your team is a bad idea when that same guy is already trying to force his way out of another place where he is already under contract.

Now that Phoenix is out, I'm kind of curious where KD actually wants to go. Or, if a preferred destination isn't likely right now, how much he still wants out of Brooklyn.
 

Ed Hillel

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Or KD isn't interested in them and they know it. Trading for a guy who doesn't want to be on your team is a bad idea when that same guy is already trying to force his way out of another place where he is already under contract.

Now that Phoenix is out, I'm kind of curious where KD actually wants to go. Or, if a preferred destination isn't likely right now, how much he still wants out of Brooklyn.
Miami was second on his list, I believe, so I'd assume there. Doesn't seem all that likely, however.