X Leaves the Spot for San Diego: 11 years, $280M

Apr 6, 2023
29
Iglesias has not been good defensively for a while, his -26 DRS since 2021 s one of the very worst numbers for any player in MLB, in the bottom six. Full stop, you don't know what you're talking about and should dial it back a few notches.

https://fieldingbible.com/DRSLeaderboard (change the 'start year' to 2021)
His DRS was solid in 2022. He is a competent shortstop far superior to any of the other options on the Sox roster, which is all they need until Story or Mondesi get healthy. They do not currently have a competent, healthy SS on their 40 man, or have you not been watching the games?
 
Apr 6, 2023
29
30 teams have now had 2 chances to sign him to major league deals and none have, not even in a backup role. So unless you think the Sox infield situation is by far the worst in all of baseball this argument doesn't hold up.
Have you not noticed how many mediocre to horrendous teams there are across baseball this year? Citing their judgment as proof your argument is correct is far from convincing.
 

McSweeny

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His DRS was solid in 2022. He is a competent shortstop far superior to any of the other options on the Sox roster, which is all they need until Story or Mondesi get healthy. They do not currently have a competent, healthy SS on their 40 man, or have you not been watching the games?
Looks like he had a -4 DRS in 2022. Is that solid?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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If the Sox had signed X, they’d probably be one or two games above .500 right now instead of one game below.
Maybe.

FWIW, the Sox have gotten 1.5 WAR (Fangraphs) out of the SS position so far this year. Bogaerts is currently at 1.8 WAR with the Pads. I don't think Bogaerts makes a hell of a lot of difference for this club right now unless the argument is for the knock-on effects like Kike being the full time CF. Even then, is Kike out-performing what Duvall and Duran have done? I think the only thing Bogaerts being here would significantly change is the fanbase's level of anxiety/agita.
 

dhappy42

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Maybe.

FWIW, the Sox have gotten 1.5 WAR (Fangraphs) out of the SS position so far this year. Bogaerts is currently at 1.8 WAR with the Pads. I don't think Bogaerts makes a hell of a lot of difference for this club right now unless the argument is for the knock-on effects like Kike being the full time CF. Even then, is Kike out-performing what Duvall and Duran have done? I think the only thing Bogaerts being here would significantly change is the fanbase's level of anxiety/agita.
I think we’re making more or less the same point: Bogaerts on this team doesn’t make much difference, wins-wise.
 

DisgruntledSoxFan77

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I think we’re making more or less the same point: Bogaerts on this team doesn’t make much difference, wins-wise.
If Xander was here, Hernandez isn’t playing shortstop, therefore we don’t have 13 errors from the position. How that translates to wins, who can say, but they probably allow a good bit fewer runs
 

katnado

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If Xander was here, Hernandez isn’t playing shortstop, therefore we don’t have 13 errors from the position. How that translates to wins, who can say, but they probably allow a good bit fewer runs
From quick beer math they've given up 25 unearned runs this year. (I could be off on that total haha) Does anyone know if there is anywhere that breaks those unearned runs down from errors by position? Would be really curious how many unearned runs Hernandez epic failure as a SS has created.

That being said I've got zero issues with the Sox letting X walk with that contract and personally I don't believe him being here changes anything for win totals for this team. Aside from not having to watch Hernandez suck at SS. Haha
 

scottyno

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Have you not noticed how many mediocre to horrendous teams there are across baseball this year? Citing their judgment as proof your argument is correct is far from convincing.
Unless your argument is that those teams aren't even trying to win then the fact that none of those mediocre or worse teams had any interest in him twice for the league minimum should tell you something
 

moondog80

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From quick beer math they've given up 25 unearned runs this year. (I could be off on that total haha) Does anyone know if there is anywhere that breaks those unearned runs down from errors by position? Would be really curious how many unearned runs Hernandez epic failure as a SS has created.

That being said I've got zero issues with the Sox letting X walk with that contract and personally I don't believe him being here changes anything for win totals for this team. Aside from not having to watch Hernandez suck at SS. Haha
Fangraphs has Kike the SS at -4.4 defensive runs above average. Sox as a team are actually a little better than I might have guessed -- 23rd at -6.7, ahead of Atlanta and Baltimore.

More problematic is that they have Yoshida at -4.5 and Casas at -5.8. Hoping those can be chalked up, at least in part, to SSS (defensive stats can be particularly noisy). But...yeesh.
 
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katnado

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Fangraphs has Kike the SS at -4.4 defensive runs above average. Sox as a team are actually a little better than I might have guessed -- 23rd at -6,7, ahead of Atlanta and Baltimore.

More problematic is that they have Yoshida at -4.5 and Casas at -5.8. Hoping those can be chalked up, at least in part, to SSS (defensive stats can be particularly noisy). But...yeesh.
Yea, I've seen his advanced fielding numbers. Those are easy to find on fangraphs and BRef. Was wondering if there's a breakdown by unearned runs by position anywhere.
 

Rovin Romine

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Maybe.

FWIW, the Sox have gotten 1.5 WAR (Fangraphs) out of the SS position so far this year. Bogaerts is currently at 1.8 WAR with the Pads. I don't think Bogaerts makes a hell of a lot of difference for this club right now unless the argument is for the knock-on effects like Kike being the full time CF. Even then, is Kike out-performing what Duvall and Duran have done? I think the only thing Bogaerts being here would significantly change is the fanbase's level of anxiety/agita.
People would be freaking out. Mostly because those Xander numbers aren't evenly distributed. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=bogaexa01&year=2023&t=b#month

Xander was hot in April then fell off a cliff. If X was here, Hernandez would have been in CF - and he was ice cold. Instead we got Duvall and Duran who, combined, were far hotter than Xander for far longer.
 

CarolinaBeerGuy

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His DRS was solid in 2022. He is a competent shortstop far superior to any of the other options on the Sox roster, which is all they need until Story or Mondesi get healthy. They do not currently have a competent, healthy SS on their 40 man, or have you not been watching the games?
This is not remotely accurate. Out of 22 players with at least 900 innings played at shortstop in 2022, he was tied for 3rd worst DRS in the league.
 

Blizzard of 1978

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From quick beer math they've given up 25 unearned runs this year. (I could be off on that total haha) Does anyone know if there is anywhere that breaks those unearned runs down from errors by position? Would be really curious how many unearned runs Hernandez epic failure as a SS has created.

That being said I've got zero issues with the Sox letting X walk with that contract and personally I don't believe him being here changes anything for win totals for this team. Aside from not having to watch Hernandez suck at SS. Haha
I like to see those unearned runs numbers by Hernandez as well as that Enmanuel Valdez at second. Valdez was pretty bad fielding as Hernandez. They both would make good trade chips at the deadline.
 

soxhop411

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On Sunday, the Padres followed a blowout win and a shutout loss by getting beaten rather easily at sold-out Petco Park by the lowly Washington Nationals. In response, they both defended their effort and drew attention to a new low.

“Lack of fight — I don’t even feel any of that. You know?” Xander Bogaerts said after an 8-3 loss. “But maybe trying to do too much might be one.”

The veteran shortstop added: “C’mon, man. We’re playing the Nationals. … I don’t think they have playoff aspirations. I mean, they obviously have a young team and they fight. They do fight. But I wouldn’t say anyone picked the Nationals to be in the playoffs. So you have to beat the teams that you have to beat.”
things may be close to unraveling in SD

https://theathletic.com/4636283/2023/06/25/padres-new-low-series-loss-nationals/
 

Rovin Romine

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AlNipper49

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What's the story on them suddenly spending so much? Is it just an owner who doesn't care about losing money?
My understanding is it's the opposite. It's a top ten market and O'Malleys grandson who bought the team is a guy who likes his data. At the same time I think the city and team have dumped a tremendous amount of money into the area to revitalize it. Kind of a perfect storm for spending.
 

jose melendez

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My understanding is it's the opposite. It's a top ten market and O'Malleys grandson who bought the team is a guy who likes his data. At the same time I think the city and team have dumped a tremendous amount of money into the area to revitalize it. Kind of a perfect storm for spending.
I have San Diego listed as the #30 media market. Is that wrong?
 

moondog80

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I think they are also seizing on the fact that they are now the only game in town, with the Chargers gone and no real NCAA powerhouse, SDSU's NCAA men's basketball finals appearance notwithstanding.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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What's the story on them suddenly spending so much? Is it just an owner who doesn't care about losing money?
I think that's the gist of it. He's spending money to try to win the city's first championship. And the fans, used to spend-thrifty owners and firesales, are buying in on the championship aspirations (hence the booing this weekend).
 

Steve Dillard

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Sad Sam Jones

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There are some similarities to the Cleveland Indians of the '90s with a team that's predominantly been mediocre for half a century doing a rebuild with some exciting players and also getting a boost of attention from the fanbase thanks to the exit of the town's NFL franchise. It wasn't as noticeable back then because there was less payroll disparity, but Cleveland was one of MLB's biggest spenders in the late '90s and both teams have tried putting an all-star at every position to put them over the top. I'm sure Padres fans are excited just to finally seem relevant after 55 years without a World Series victory or even any real dramatic angst to bond over (the 2 times they've made the World Series they still didn't stand a chance and have a 1-8 record). Their legacy to this point has been a singles hitter, a soft-tossing closer and a lot of ugly uniforms.
 

jose melendez

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There are some similarities to the Cleveland Indians of the '90s with a team that's predominantly been mediocre for half a century doing a rebuild with some exciting players and also getting a boost of attention from the fanbase thanks to the exit of the town's NFL franchise. It wasn't as noticeable back then because there was less payroll disparity, but Cleveland was one of MLB's biggest spenders in the late '90s and both teams have tried putting an all-star at every position to put them over the top. I'm sure Padres fans are excited just to finally seem relevant after 55 years without a World Series victory or even any real dramatic angst to bond over (the 2 times they've made the World Series they still didn't stand a chance and have a 1-8 record). Their legacy to this point has been a singles hitter, a soft-tossing closer and a lot of ugly uniforms.
That's a really good analogy.
 

Ale Xander

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I think they are also seizing on the fact that they are now the only game in town, with the Chargers gone and no real NCAA powerhouse, SDSU's NCAA men's basketball finals appearance notwithstanding.
Well sorta. They may have forgot they also compete with the beaches which is a bit cheaper. If they’re winning, it’s not an issue
 

Scoops Bolling

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Fwiw, the Padres' farm is hardly shot; its just all a ways away. They have a nice batch of low level talent, both hitting (Merrill, Salas, Zavala) and pitching (Iriarte, Snelling, Lesko). They are right there with the Dodgers and Rays in player development.
 

Skiponzo

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SIdler just wants to win and Padre fans have been eating it up but no one wants to hear about how hard it is to buy a championship and what that does to your team in the long run. I get what he's trying to do and it's not a bad idea. Spend a ton, get fans interested, win a championship and you've created a new baseline with, hopefully, a lot of young fans buying in long term. The key is obviously winning it all. Don't win and the plan is for naught. FTR everything is working....except the winning part. First time in team history they capped season ticket sales, lots of fan interest with mostly packed stadiums and "water cooler" talk at work. Hell, they even had mostly Padre fans at PETCO for the first Dodger series (which NEVER happens) but...and I know this is preaching to the choir to this group....their future is NOT bright....and I for one am OK with that,. I like my loser Padres so I can get easy seats and not have to deal with a packed stadium. So sue me.....
 

8slim

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I think they’ll end up being OK. There’s too much talent there to be mediocre forever. And I suspect too many guys are pressing due to the money.
 

jteders1

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Preller's record has been pretty underwhelming. Even in his early years, he traded controllable young players for MLB talent (he did keep what was viewed as his top-end prospects at the time though). He's dealt Max Fried for one year of Justin Upton, who stunk. He dealt Tre Turner in a deal for Wil Myers, and everyone knows about the deal with Hosmer. If he was the Sox GM, we'd be killing him, rightfully so. If his seat isn't warm, then I'm not sure what they're doing over there.

2014 San Diego Padres NL MLB SDN General Manager 77 85 .475 -- 3 17.0 dnq
2015 San Diego Padres NL MLB SDN General Manager 74 88 .457 -- 4 18.0 dnq
2016 San Diego Padres NL MLB SDN General Manager 68 94 .420 -- 5 23.0 dnq
2017 San Diego Padres NL MLB SDN General Manager 71 91 .438 -- 4 33.0 dnq
2018 San Diego Padres NL MLB SDN General Manager 66 96 .407 -- 5 25.5 dnq
2019 San Diego Padres NL MLB SDN General Manager 70 92 .432 -- 5 36.0 dnq
2020 San Diego Padres NL MLB SDN General Manager 37 23 .617 -- 2 6.0 Lost in Division Series (Dodgers)
2021 San Diego Padres NL MLB SDN General Manager 79 83 .488 -- 3 28.0 dnq
2022 San Diego Padres NL MLB SDN General Manager 89 73 .549 -- 2 22.0 Lost in NLCS (Phillies)
2023 San Diego Padres NL MLB SDN General Manager 37 41 .474 -- 4 9.5 --
 

Al Zarilla

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There are some similarities to the Cleveland Indians of the '90s with a team that's predominantly been mediocre for half a century doing a rebuild with some exciting players and also getting a boost of attention from the fanbase thanks to the exit of the town's NFL franchise. It wasn't as noticeable back then because there was less payroll disparity, but Cleveland was one of MLB's biggest spenders in the late '90s and both teams have tried putting an all-star at every position to put them over the top. I'm sure Padres fans are excited just to finally seem relevant after 55 years without a World Series victory or even any real dramatic angst to bond over (the 2 times they've made the World Series they still didn't stand a chance and have a 1-8 record). Their legacy to this point has been a singles hitter, a soft-tossing closer and a lot of ugly uniforms.
If you call Gwynn a singles hitter, then same for Wade Boggs (Gwynn had more HRs per AB, not by a lot though, than Boggs).
 

moondog80

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Snell and Hader FA this year, and then the big one is Soto next year. At which point they will still have 4 years of Darvish heading into his age 38 year and 9 more of Xander and Machado as they both turn 32 . Their window is now and next year, and they have 6.5 game deficit to make up for the 3rd WC. Are they buyers at the deadline?
 
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chrisfont9

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Snell and Hader FA this year, and then the big one is Soto next year. At which point they will still have 4 years of Darvish heading into his age 38 year and 9 more of Xander and Machado as they both turn 32 . Their window is now and next year, and they have 6.5 game deficit to make up for the 3rd WC. Are they buyers at the deadline?
I mean, buying what? I guess they could effectively fire Nelson Cruz and Matt Carpenter and add a DH, but otherwise they are pretty stocked already.
 

Rovin Romine

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There are some similarities to the Cleveland Indians of the '90s with a team that's predominantly been mediocre for half a century doing a rebuild with some exciting players and also getting a boost of attention from the fanbase thanks to the exit of the town's NFL franchise. It wasn't as noticeable back then because there was less payroll disparity, but Cleveland was one of MLB's biggest spenders in the late '90s and both teams have tried putting an all-star at every position to put them over the top. I'm sure Padres fans are excited just to finally seem relevant after 55 years without a World Series victory or even any real dramatic angst to bond over (the 2 times they've made the World Series they still didn't stand a chance and have a 1-8 record). Their legacy to this point has been a singles hitter, a soft-tossing closer and a lot of ugly uniforms.
The 90s Indians were largely built from the draft or trades for young players they then broke in as rookies : Thome, Belle, Manny, Brian Giles, Charles Nagy and Jaret Wright (among others) were drafted. Bartolo Colon was an IFA. As for the rookies-from-elsewhwere, in '89 they traded one year of Joe Carter to SD for a young Carlos Baerga and Sandy Alomar! Then in '91 they acquired a young Kenny Lofton for his rookie campaign.

Sure they picked up and traded for other vets, but the core was really home grown. And crazy-good picks they were at times:
Manny #13 (Sox took Aaron Sele later at 23.)
Tome #333 (Sox took Greg Blosser and Mo Vaughn in the first round that year.)
Nagy #17 (Sox took Tom Fisher ahead of Nagy.)
Belle #47 (Sox took Reggie Harris and Bob Zupcic ahead of Belle.)
 

moondog80

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I mean, buying what? I guess they could effectively fire Nelson Cruz and Matt Carpenter and add a DH, but otherwise they are pretty stocked already.
They are 37-41 so there have to be some holes, right? Catcher? Upgrade at 1B or CF, or one of the rotation spots and/or bullpen? I get that they can expect some improvement from Machado and a few other guys, but enough to make up that deficit?
 

Ale Xander

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The 90s Indians were largely built from the draft or trades for young players they then broke in as rookies : Thome, Belle, Manny, Brian Giles, Charles Nagy and Jaret Wright (among others) were drafted. Bartolo Colon was an IFA. As for the rookies-from-elsewhwere, in '89 they traded one year of Joe Carter to SD for a young Carlos Baerga and Sandy Alomar! Then in '91 they acquired a young Kenny Lofton for his rookie campaign.

Sure they picked up and traded for other vets, but the core was really home grown. And crazy-good picks they were at times:
Manny #13 (Sox took Aaron Sele later at 23.)
Tome #333 (Sox took Greg Blosser and Mo Vaughn in the first round that year.)
Nagy #17 (Sox took Tom Fisher ahead of Nagy.)
Belle #47 (Sox took Reggie Harris and Bob Zupcic ahead of Belle.)
That 91 draft (Manny) woof

Glanville went 12 and he may have been the best player 1-12
Old friend Dave McCarty went 3
Dmitri Young went 4
Brien Taylor went 1 (hahahahaha)
Bunch of no names on the top 11

other good players Cliff Floyd and Shawn Green went 14 and 16

Almost like 12-16 was 1-5
 

Rovin Romine

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Fwiw, the Padres' farm is hardly shot; its just all a ways away. They have a nice batch of low level talent, both hitting (Merrill, Salas, Zavala) and pitching (Iriarte, Snelling, Lesko). They are right there with the Dodgers and Rays in player development.
That may be true, but they really threw a lot of money (and talent, in the case of the Soto trade) at a 2022-24 window. If they don't win, and Soto walks (or is exorbitant to sign) I'm not sure that far-off talent will be enough to energize the club before Xander, Darvish, Machado, Musgrove, and Croneworth turn into $100M to $120M per year of averageish production.

At least Tatis is back to being good. Problematic in so many ways, but good.
 

Auger34

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I think they’ll end up being OK. There’s too much talent there to be mediocre forever. And I suspect too many guys are pressing due to the money.
Agreed.

And as @Scoops Bolling mentioned, the minor league cupboard isn’t bare. They have some exciting very young talent