X Leaves the Spot for San Diego: 11 years, $280M

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I haven’t had caffeine yet, but this is a brilliant deal for the Padres - the kind of deal the Boston team used to put together.
Economics:
1) what’s $27M going to be worth in 2031 - $22M maybe?
2) a RH PH / occasional DH/ 1B is probably going to be getting $20-22M in 9 years on the open market
3) luxury tax limits are going to continue to rise - maybe 10-15% higher in 8 years - that just absorbed X’s tax hit.

So the Padres can afford to field a team with X, Machado, Soto, and Tatis, but the $3.9B BOSTON RED SOX can’t?
For a year. Machado can opt out and Soto is a FA after '23. And with this X contract, it seems very unlikely that they'll keep one or both of them.
 

AlNipper49

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The Padres, through years of suck, had a lot of bullets in the gun. To their credit, they are shooting it. However, the risk factor they are taking on would make me scared as crap as a fan. Tatis has been hurt and they just added 300m onto the same position. If things don’t break their way then they could be in for a decade long malaise. A few years every team can accept. The downside risk factor here isn’t just the team kinda sucks for awhile. If this goes poorly for them then they may have to move. A team without this kind of following has no floor.

Here’s the thing - for whatever dumb reason it’ll come down to owners willing to spend. The entire story With SanDiego is that if this works there will be the creation of a generation fan base. If it doesn’t work the owners will get out of it by selling to a group who could move them. Either way they’ll profit. Committing to a team that is decent but doesn’t dominate the headlines is their worst possible outcome.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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11 years 280m is too rich for my blood for a guy with no power anymore. Love you X but enjoy playing for a loser franchise for the rest of your life.

Sign Correa.
Correa slugged 11 points higher than Bogaerts last year. Regardless, do we really think the Sox will be comfortable meeting Correa’s price, which presumably will be similar to and likely higher than Bogaerts was? I suspect he ends up in one of the other teams that was in on X and offered more than the Sox (SF?).

Elvis Andrus looks like a more realistic option.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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In a vacuum, I don’t mind this decision but the problem is we don’t live in a vacuum. The Red Sox keep losing their best players and they aren’t replacing them (yet). It’s hard to really ascertain what Chaim’s plan is here.

If he gives a similar contract to Correa, that’ll help. I certainly hope it’s not Swanson.

Devers extension becomes of prime importance now. And hard to think it’ll get done given these crazy FA dollars.
This is where I’m at. The FA market feels highly inefficient, the dollars and years are supercharged to make up for how little guys are paid when they are actually in their prime, and yet—at some point you have to be willing to make a big overpay for great players rather than the middling overpays for good players or good values for decent players who might pop for you.

Unless you have a really dynamite farm system churning out studs and are signing those guys to early extensions. We’re trying to work on the former and haven’t been able to really pull off the latter except for Whitlock.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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It seems to me like they either need to extend Devers now or trade him, like soon. They can’t risk losing him for nothing.
 

Apisith

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This deal is nuts. But anyway, Boras is not the type to allow his guys to sign a deal before reaching free agency. The few that sign usually get FA rates, like Strasburg. I don’t really blame the FO for not getting X to sign an extension because they already did it once and it covered the peak of his career.

Let’s get a similar deal done with Devers and continue our soft rebuild.
 

Traut

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11 years is almost laughable really.
11 years benefits the team. These are team friendly contracts.

Money is worth less every day.

Getting money today is worth more than getting money tomorrow.

If a team wins and gets money from that in the next few years that is worth a lot to them.

Look at contracts for players like Verlander who was paid closer to his actual projected value the next 2 seasons.

A 3/210 deal would be far better for Xander and worse for the Padres even not factoring in luxury tax concerns.

The years are essentially meaningless to teams aside from luxury tax concerns. Teams would offer 20 year deals to guys like Xander if they thought players would accept them.
 

mikeford

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Correa slugged 11 points higher than Bogaerts last year. Regardless, do we really think the Sox will be comfortable meeting Correa’s price, which presumably will be similar to and likely higher than Bogaerts was? I suspect he ends up in one of the other teams that was in on X and offered more than the Sox (SF?).

Elvis Andrus looks like a more realistic option.
His career SLG is like 20 points higher than Bogey's so... I'll take my chances. Also the Sox ability or inability to pay Correa is not my problem. I am merely positing what I think they SHOULD do if they wanna be a serious outfit.
 

OCST

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I hate these mega deals. I hate that they’re even a thing. they almost never pan out over the length of the deal. But it’s just ridiculous that the CBA makes them inevitable in the first place since the players have to wait to get to unfettered FA and there are only a handful of elite players in this spot every winter, so it’s false scarcity. Charlie O was right- let them all be FA eligible from day 1 of year 1.
 

103mph Screwball

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That is a looooong contract for a player on the wrong side of 30, but this is still incredibly disappointing as a Sox, and Xander fan. It's a business, but the past few years have been really sad for the fan in me that loved watching these guys come up with the team, only to leave.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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His career SLG is like 20 points higher than Bogey's so... I'll take my chances. Also the Sox ability or inability to pay Correa is not my problem. I am merely positing what I think they SHOULD do if they wanna be a serious outfit.
Fair enough, and I agree. But it seems really unlikely that they will land Correa. But stranger things have happened.
 

JM3

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Obviously we have no clue what will happen after this current CBA, but the CBT thresholds really aren't moving much during this one:

2022: $230 million
2023: $233 million
2024: $237 million
2025: $241 million
2026: $244 million

This isn't like the sports that do #s based on a % of income. So either teams are just tripping, or, more likely, the lessening of the penalties for going over makes teams more comfortable with potential albatross contracts because it's just $.

Hope X has a great time in San Diego & wish them all the luck in the world unless they're playing us. I have a feeling the Padres might start having some questions about whether this was a good call as early as this year, though.
 

Traut

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The Padres, through years of suck, had a lot of bullets in the gun. To their credit, they are shooting it. However, the risk factor they are taking on would make me scared as crap as a fan. Tatis has been hurt and they just added 300m onto the same position. If things don’t break their way then they could be in for a decade long malaise. A few years every team can accept. The downside risk factor here isn’t just the team kinda sucks for awhile. If this goes poorly for them then they may have to move. A team without this kind of following has no floor.

Here’s the thing - for whatever dumb reason it’ll come down to owners willing to spend. The entire story With SanDiego is that if this works there will be the creation of a generation fan base. If it doesn’t work the owners will get out of it by selling to a group who could move them. Either way they’ll profit. Committing to a team that is decent but doesn’t dominate the headlines is their worst possible outcome.
The only way the house loses is if people don’t care. Really smart and savvy people line up to buy sports teams for a reason. They are largely cash positive and the ROI on franchise values is bananas.

Also look at the Sox Mass Mutual deal- it's 10 years. Now is the time if you are the Padres to shake down every season ticket holder, seat license, and anyone who wants to advertise with you now and lock them in for a decade.

In my small little niche of life, the smartest marketers are doubling down on sports licensing as a way to distinguish their brand in a very saturated field. It is good to be the official law firm of the Florida Gators or have an NIL with star players on say Creighton BB if you are in Nebraska. Morgan and Morgan the largest PI firm is an official sponsor of the Red Sox. That's what they did when they wanted to break into the Boston market. These people aren't stupid.
 
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snowmanny

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It seems to me like they either need to extend Devers now or trade him, like soon. They can’t risk losing him for nothing.
Two questions:

What do you think the Red Sox consider a fair offer for Devers?

What do you think Devers would have been offered if he was a free agent this year?

I am not super optimistic about them signing Devers but I suppose it wouldn’t be inconsistent with John Henry’s history to be reactive to losing the X negotiation.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Two questions:

What do you think the Red Sox consider a fair offer for Devers?

What do you think Devers would have been offered if he was a free agent this year?

I am not super optimistic about them signing Devers but I suppose it wouldn’t be inconsistent with John Henry’s history to be reactive to losing the X negotiation.
I don’t know what they’d consider a fair offer but I can’t imagine anything less than 11–12 years at ~30M per gets it’s done now.
 

8slim

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Good for Xander, bad for us.

Not my money, and it doesn’t seem like an annual amount that’s going to really cripple a franchise in the last few years, especially given inflation and continuing revenue escalation.

Ultimately all I care about is watching a playoff-caliber Sox team every summer. Losing X makes that more difficult to achieve in 2023. Hopefully they find a worthy replacement.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Tough news to wake up to, but seems like the Sox weren’t actually close to bringing him back at all; certainly feels like they botched the negotiations and were way off on his market value from the get go, but we will have to see how they respond. Losing a 5 win player is a pretty big blow, and if they are going to hold the line on the length of deals they offer, Devers is gone too. But who knows; perhaps they pivot to Correa.
I don't think they "botched" negotiations. I think they had a price and they stuck to it, knowing full well that it meant Xander was gone. There was never a serious intention of signing him, just as there was never a serious intention of signing Mookie, just as, way back when, there was no serious intention of signing Jon Lester. ("Take a steep discount to sign with us" is not "serious intention.")

The Red Sox are willing to spend money - they gave Trevor Story $130 M guaranteed for 6 years last year - but, there is nothing in recent team history to say that they will go after top tier players, even when players are their own home grown stars. Story is a good player, not a star player. If 6/$160 M was really the final offer to Bogaerts, well, those two contracts highlight that there was never a serious interest in bringing Bogaerts back.

I would not bet heavily on Devers re-signing with Boston when the time comes.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Tried to tell some of you who were waving away the idea that San Diego would sign a SS, the Padres are not screwing around anymore.

Man, this really is a bummer. I don't think I'd want the Sox to even match this kind of offer, but it is going to really suck to watch him in another uniform. He's everything you want in a ballplayer. I might live in San Diego, but I'm really going to miss him.
 

chawson

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Sign Correa here and we’re doing fine. With the Dodgers out, our competition for him is the Giants, Cubs, Twins and Orioles, and I like the chance that Cora can help swing his vote.

We’re gonna need another big bat or more even if only to lighten the pressure on Yoshida. Sign Correa, sign Senga, trade for Hoskins and Kepler.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Why are the Dodgers not in on SS’s?

I don’t believe the Sox really wanted him back… perhaps for a 5 year? Max?
But he’s over the baseball hill unfortunately and SD will likely be stuck with him. They’re shooting to win it all next year and pay the price after for the next 10 years.
 

chief1

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Is anyone else really bothered by how Chaim handled the trade deadline now that X is gone? Didn't add anyone good either for the short term or long term. Didn't get under the cap. What was the plan if they were not going to go all out to sign X? Now they end up with a 4th round comp and paying the luxury tax for a last place team. If i was ownership I would be livid. It just looks to me like he tried to play both sides of the fence either because he was indecisive or trying to placate a fan base.
And now he wants to resign Vazquez??? WTF?!
 

BaseballJones

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If he resigns Vasquez for reasonable money, then that entire thing was a slam dunk because you got something for him at the trade deadline, Vasquez won a World Series, and then the Sox would have got him right back anyway.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Sign Correa here and we’re doing fine. With the Dodgers out, our competition for him is the Giants, Cubs, Twins and Orioles, and I like the chance that Cora can help swing his vote.

We’re gonna need another big bat or more even if only to lighten the pressure on Yoshida. Sign Correa, sign Senga, trade for Hoskins and Kepler.
Is there any evidence that the Phillies want to trade Hoskins?

As far as the other moves, sounds great- but isn’t Correa going to be a $300m investment? Seems like it would require a sudden pivot in strategy. If the Sox valued X at 6/160, I’m guessing something like 8/225? Which is too low.

I also wouldn’t assume the Dodgers are out.
 

Al Zarilla

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So teams should just accept they will have 25+ million for no production 10 years out? No matter how high the luxury tax line goes, that's rough business
They are moving all the chips into the center of the table for one World Series win, or more. They've never won one. It'll be worth if they get there. Plus, another marquee name can only help attendance. I'm all San Diego now in the NL. Beat LA! Beat SF!
 

RobertS975

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The years are really meaningless unless you actually think he will be productive all the way to the end. The $280 million is what counts... if you get 7 productive years, that's $40 million per! Too rich!
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Is anyone else really bothered by how Chaim handled the trade deadline now that X is gone? Didn't add anyone good either for the short term or long term. Didn't get under the cap. What was the plan if they were not going to go all out to sign X? Now they end up with a 4th round comp and paying the luxury tax for a last place team. If i was ownership I would be livid. It just looks to me like he tried to play both sides of the fence either because he was indecisive or trying to placate a fan base.
And now he wants to resign Vazquez??? WTF?!
The Sox were two games out of a wildcard spot at the deadline. I don't think he was indecisive. I think he made marginal moves he hoped would get the team into a position to get a wildcard spot. As we saw with the Phillies (and the Sox the year before), all you have to do is get in to make post-season noise. It happened to not work out. To completely sell off at that point would have been a mistake. To go all in and add big expensive pieces would have been a mistake as well.
 

JM3

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Is anyone else really bothered by how Chaim handled the trade deadline now that X is gone? Didn't add anyone good either for the short term or long term. Didn't get under the cap. What was the plan if they were not going to go all out to sign X? Now they end up with a 4th round comp and paying the luxury tax for a last place team. If i was ownership I would be livid. It just looks to me like he tried to play both sides of the fence either because he was indecisive or trying to placate a fan base.
And now he wants to resign Vazquez??? WTF?!
Short answer: no

Longer answer:

Both McGuire & Valdez could be long term pieces & they left themselves with a chance to compete this past year while sacrificing nothing in the long run. The Red Sox were about $4.5m over the threshold so they ended up owing about $900k in tax. I think the owners will survive.

Personally I probably would have tried to push harder to get under the tax, but I understand the multiple masters the Red Sox have to serve in this market, & the Phillies showed that any team can get hot if they make it to the playoffs.

The "indecisive" narratives are some of my least favorite because value is value & you have to build it brick by brick until your foundation is strong enough to take targeted shots at shipping. The foundation is getting there, but until then, one has to find value opportunities where one can.

Regarding Vazquez, I don't think they actually plan on resigning him, but if they did, wouldn't it make trading him for a couple guys who might be helpful pieces for a couple months of play in a last place season seem that much smarter?
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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The optics on trying to move Bogaerts at the deadline last year would not have been good; I think they probably had to at least make an effort to bring him back for a variety of reasons.
 

BorisMan

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Carlos Correa is most definitely in play here. I would offer him whatever they offered X.

Sad to see Xander go. I've followed him since he played, and dominated, in the DSL. Buuuut, no way I am upset that the Sox didn't give him 11 years. The AAV is something the Sox could have exceeded.
 

OCD SS

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Sign Correa here and we’re doing fine. With the Dodgers out, our competition for him is the Giants, Cubs, Twins and Orioles, and I like the chance that Cora can help swing his vote.

We’re gonna need another big bat or more even if only to lighten the pressure on Yoshida. Sign Correa, sign Senga, trade for Hoskins and Kepler.
I’d be curious how they value Correa, but on what planet do you see them going to the years he’s going to demand?

If the Sox think their payroll can only handle 1 player @ $300 M, should it be Correa or Devers? (And yes, it actually can probably handle more than 1, but if JWH doesn’t agree, the team won’t spend that way).
 

BaseballJones

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Carlos Correa is most definitely in play here. I would offer him whatever they offered X.
I would too. But Correa would smartly say no and we will then see his contract probably go past Xander’s.

How high would you be willing to go for Correa?
 

amfox1

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Is anyone else really bothered by how Chaim handled the trade deadline now that X is gone? Didn't add anyone good either for the short term or long term. Didn't get under the cap. What was the plan if they were not going to go all out to sign X? Now they end up with a 4th round comp and paying the luxury tax for a last place team. If i was ownership I would be livid. It just looks to me like he tried to play both sides of the fence either because he was indecisive or trying to placate a fan base.
And now he wants to resign Vazquez??? WTF?!
The decision to sign or not sign Bogaerts was ownership's, not Bloom's. That level of decision is above Bloom's pay grade.
 

Toe Nash

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Speier says the Sox' best offer was 6/160 so that doesn't get it done with Correa. That's honestly what I would have offered Xander but I was OK with him leaving for what it would cost. Maybe they should have been more aggressive about extending him but I doubt that would have made a difference, Xander is not dumb and knows what he could get as a free agent. You just have to draft and develop your young talent, simple as that.

View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1600741855079329792
 

8slim

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I would too. But Correa would smartly say no and we will then see his contract probably go past Xander’s.

How high would you be willing to go for Correa?
At the very least, I don’t know why Correa wouldn’t get something close-ish to X. He’s younger so I imagine he’d want at least 10 years, now that’s a common thing. Doesn’t seem like the Sox feel that’s the kind of deal they’ll do.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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6/160 a year after Semien got 7/175 is just not even realistic, IMO. They had to know that wasn’t getting a deal done; will be fascinating to see what happens next.
 

8slim

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Speier says the Sox' best offer was 6/160 so that doesn't get it done with Correa. That's honestly what I would have offered Xander but I was OK with him leaving for what it would cost. Maybe they should have been more aggressive about extending him but I doubt that would have made a difference, Xander is not dumb and knows what he could get as a free agent. You just have to draft and develop your young talent, simple as that.

View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1600741855079329792
Seems clear that in an era of 10+ year deals a team either has to do that, or amp up the AAV considerably for a shorter term. Sox may not be willing to do either going forward.
 

Jungleland

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98.5 is going to be incredible today.

Hard to really know how to feel here given that it’s absolutely better to not be the team going 11 years on a guy over 30, but I lean toward Bloom and ownership deserving some egg on their face. Shouldn’t have insulted Xander a year ago and/or should have traded him at the deadline. Simple as that. I’m excited for the long view of the rebuild, but they deserve a half empty Fenway for the interim.
 

8slim

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Offering slightly more money than you paid to Story, who had a pretty damn rough first year, doesn’t seem like the way to endear yourself to a FA.
 

DJnVa

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If Devers doesn't extend by the trade deadline, he'll be dealt -- Soto style. There's no way Bloom risks another Mookie
Well, he did trade Mookie, so wouldn't it be the same thing as "another Mookie" or am I misunderstanding you?