I thought you generally didn’t want more than 2-3 cortisone shots in any one place.
X Leaves the Spot for San Diego: 11 years, $280M
- Thread starter TimScribble
- Start date
The last 18 months or so of Xander's Red Sox career were frustrating. He played well, and he is probably one of my favorite Red Sox players of my lifetime. It started to become clear that he probably would not sign with the Red Sox long term. That was the frustrating part to me. Everyone knew there had to be a tough decision to be made, and the team still somehow seemed unprepared.
There was a key stretch in March 2019. Sale signs a 5 year extension worth $145 million on March 22nd. Bogaerts then signs an arbitration extension on March 31st. This is the one with the opt out clause.
We have the benefit of hind sight as the team was coming off a World Series title. The team was staring down the barrel of signing X, Mookie, and Devers which should have been their core. Instead, they extend Sale and lose 2 out of the three guys. Technically, X did sign an extension, but the real deal was always going to be the 3 years with the opt out.
The months after the 2018 title were a crucial time for the franchise, and so far the decisions that were made have been a bit frustrating.
There was a key stretch in March 2019. Sale signs a 5 year extension worth $145 million on March 22nd. Bogaerts then signs an arbitration extension on March 31st. This is the one with the opt out clause.
We have the benefit of hind sight as the team was coming off a World Series title. The team was staring down the barrel of signing X, Mookie, and Devers which should have been their core. Instead, they extend Sale and lose 2 out of the three guys. Technically, X did sign an extension, but the real deal was always going to be the 3 years with the opt out.
The months after the 2018 title were a crucial time for the franchise, and so far the decisions that were made have been a bit frustrating.
Love Xander, but I'm really glad they didn't extend him, especially with the early returns. The defensive metrics look really good and driving a 1.8 fWAR season thus far this year. We know he's an excellent worker and it really appears that he's miraculously turned himself into a good SS... but the offense is cratering.
He has a 106 WrC+ this season. That number is inflated by a white hot start. He's been lousy since.
He's a guy who puts up professional plate appearances but decreasingly impacts the baseball when he makes contact.
He has a 106 WrC+ this season. That number is inflated by a white hot start. He's been lousy since.
He's a guy who puts up professional plate appearances but decreasingly impacts the baseball when he makes contact.
Xander with Boston and San Diego:
Boston: 10 years, 1,264 games, .292/.356/.458/.815, 117 ops+, 35.2 bWAR, $66.1 million, $1.88 million per bWAR
San Diego: 11 years, ?? games, ?? slash, ?? ops+, ?? bWAR, $254.5 million
It seems pretty difficult to imagine that Bogaerts will even come within the same universe of producing the same kind of value for San Diego that he produced with Boston. In order to even be HALF the value (measured in $$ per bWAR), he'd have to produce 135.4 bWAR over the life of his Padres contract, which obviously isn't happening. He's currently on pace for 4.2 bWAR for 2023, which, if he kept it up over this season and then ten more, would yield 46.2 bWAR, which would mean his $$/bWAR value would be $5.5 million per bWAR - which is about a third the value Xander brought to the Sox.
Boston: 10 years, 1,264 games, .292/.356/.458/.815, 117 ops+, 35.2 bWAR, $66.1 million, $1.88 million per bWAR
San Diego: 11 years, ?? games, ?? slash, ?? ops+, ?? bWAR, $254.5 million
It seems pretty difficult to imagine that Bogaerts will even come within the same universe of producing the same kind of value for San Diego that he produced with Boston. In order to even be HALF the value (measured in $$ per bWAR), he'd have to produce 135.4 bWAR over the life of his Padres contract, which obviously isn't happening. He's currently on pace for 4.2 bWAR for 2023, which, if he kept it up over this season and then ten more, would yield 46.2 bWAR, which would mean his $$/bWAR value would be $5.5 million per bWAR - which is about a third the value Xander brought to the Sox.
He’s scuffling now, but the white hot start still counts. He’ll probably settle out at 115-120 or so. No, I don’t think Bloom should have tried to match SD’s offer.
San Diego is a massive pitchers park. Soto is also having a below expectations start (.248 but leading the league in BB partly Based on also leading in GP and being up there in PA)
I don’t see the Padres continuing to be a haven for FA (even though weather can’t be beat)
I don’t see the Padres continuing to be a haven for FA (even though weather can’t be beat)
FWIW, Bogaerts is hitting better at Petco than away (.775 OPS vs .677), so it's not all the park.
As long as the Padres keep slinging money around like they have, free agents are likely to keep signing there. Especially if they're getting Bogaerts-like contracts carrying them right into retirement.
You, I think you have to look at rate stats like wRC+ or OPS + when reviewing players in San Diego more than almost anywhere else. A .755 OPS there isn't bad at all, for example.
The issue for me is that we're about 1,000 plate appearances into Xander having a below average exit velocity. He still puts up competitive, intelligent at bats, but he doesn't do much as he makes contact. I don't imagine that gets better as he ages. That's mostly my point.
The issue for me is that we're about 1,000 plate appearances into Xander having a below average exit velocity. He still puts up competitive, intelligent at bats, but he doesn't do much as he makes contact. I don't imagine that gets better as he ages. That's mostly my point.
Sounds like it's not "most of the season" although I guess we shouldn't count those chickens.I'd be inclined to give them more credit if they hadn't signed his replacement for decent money who is going to miss most of this season with his own documented injury. That said, at least it's not 11 years for a billion dollars.
https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/alex-cora-offers-promising-update-on-trevor-story/
I'm a bit confused by the claim that the team was unprepared? What should they have done in those 18 months? They couldn't trade him without his consent, they were trying to compete those 2 years which he helped them do, and it seems clear that they weren't really interested in having him around long term unless it was a team friendly deal. It's early obviously, but it's looking like they were really smart to extend him when they did for a fairly short extension when you factor in the opt out.
You're not wrong. It's just "blame Chaim" stuff. The team was prepared, they just had a vision for what their price was that a lot of other people don't like. For the umpteenth time, when it was time to talk extension after 2021, various metrics had him underwater defensively -- some for almost every year of his career -- so they valued him as a guy they would probably move off shortstop (although not to 3B unless you move Raffy, so...). Only after those talks broke down did he suddenly up his defense and look playable at the position long term, which upended his contract value. My only concern about losing X to some huge contract offer, apart from liking the guy, was that his departure might trigger Raffy moving, but it didn't.
And ironically post 2021 his defense has been much better and his offense, especially the metrics, look much worse. He's on pace to have a decent year this season only because of his defense.
Right, so did he get called out and start trying harder? That’s what the evidence suggests. These guys aren’t machines, sometimes they need help figuring out how to do their job.
If he contributes to even one SD WS win, no one in SD would say that 5.5M is too much.
You’re probably right. But that’s a big IF.
And Boston still would have gotten far more bang for the buck, since they won 2 World Series with him.
If he put's up 46 war for the padres over the 13 years that's a home run signing and the Sox will have been completely wrong to let him walk. That would make him a top 5-10 all time shortstop and probably a 1st ballot HOFer. 5.5m per war is really good no matter what he does in October. You can't compare that to Boston because they had the salary suppressed years, and what they already got for him shouldn't be relevant in what his next contract was.
But it's not too likely since right now his WAR is being propped up by him both being a shortstop and being currently a good shortstop. Neither of those is likely to age well.
I suppose not all 46WAR over 13 years is the same. He could put up the bulk of that WAR in the first few years and sort of drift through 7 or 8 years thereafter.
Here is where I am coming from when I say the Sox weren't prepared for their shortstop situation.
Starting in March 2019, the clock was ticking on a Bogaerts extension. There was the opt out in year 3, which he was always going to exercise. The team had from March 2019 until fall/winter of 2022 to figure it out. A good start was drafting Mayer in 2021, with the expectation that he was a high school senior that was 3-4 years away best case.
Trevor Story was then signed. There was evidence that his arm was not right, so playing short after a Bogaerts exit was up in the air already.
There was a dark cloud hanging over X and the rest of the team in 2022. No progress was made on a deal, and at that point the writing was on the wall.
That is about 3 years where there was a big decision looming - with a prep shortstop waiting in the wings for possibly 2024.
For the rest of this year and next, we are looking down the barrel of Enrique Hernandez, Yu Chang, Bobby Dalbec, Arroyo, and now Pablo Reyes playing short. Story could be in the mix as well, depending on how his arm responds.
I guess my concern is that there was no competent defensive shortstop option that the team could turn to either internally or externally.
Starting in March 2019, the clock was ticking on a Bogaerts extension. There was the opt out in year 3, which he was always going to exercise. The team had from March 2019 until fall/winter of 2022 to figure it out. A good start was drafting Mayer in 2021, with the expectation that he was a high school senior that was 3-4 years away best case.
Trevor Story was then signed. There was evidence that his arm was not right, so playing short after a Bogaerts exit was up in the air already.
There was a dark cloud hanging over X and the rest of the team in 2022. No progress was made on a deal, and at that point the writing was on the wall.
That is about 3 years where there was a big decision looming - with a prep shortstop waiting in the wings for possibly 2024.
For the rest of this year and next, we are looking down the barrel of Enrique Hernandez, Yu Chang, Bobby Dalbec, Arroyo, and now Pablo Reyes playing short. Story could be in the mix as well, depending on how his arm responds.
I guess my concern is that there was no competent defensive shortstop option that the team could turn to either internally or externally.
Agreed. And he went from one of the best hitters parks in baseball, where he enjoyed a significantly higher OPS than on the road, to one of the worst. He can kiss his HOF chances goodbye.
When they signed Story there was at least some expectation that he was only ever going to play 2B. They did offer contracts to Bogaerts. We can't know, but I just very strongly suspect that they believe Mayer is coming up before long, and they were only ever going to sign a big-time SS if it was Xander -- and then deal with position issues later. Otherwise they are plugging a temporary hole, and it makes no sense to do that in an expensive way. No dealing big prospects for Kim, no signing another big name. Mondesi was an option if he recovered like most people do, but he hasn't. Then it was a bunch of guys to hold things down. Injuries have made it harder. But they probably believed that a combo of Hernandez, Arroyo etc. would be competent defensively, then Mondesi would come along and be even better defensively. Then Story recovers and plays one or the other, very well.
All of this goes back to how invested they are in 2023. The answer is "a fair amount, but not at the expense of ANY future options." That's the plan, and everyone saying Bloom should be fired is not seeing the plan. It's fine to disagree or dislike it, we all have our own philosophies about this stuff, but that IS the plan.
My thoughts exactly. This view is rarely articulated in fan forums due to the emotional attachment we all had with X. But extending him long term never made good business sense.
Great points. All roads lead back to: why in the hell did they not sign Jose Iglesias to a one-year deal?
Yes. Iglesias is a proven shortstop who catches the ball, turns the DP and hits .280. Chang has proven nothing other than that he is a terrible hitter in the major leagues.
No clue. Look at his baseball card. He's a solid major league shortstop coming off a solid year.
Hmmm. Do you think none of the 30 teams has access to his baseball card? Or maybe they have good reasons not to give him a shot?
I think Chang is, at present, probably better defensively at SS than Iglesias.
Iglesias's defense was no longer what it was.
BTW, from August 1 to the end of the season last year he hit .256 with an OPS of .595
If you think maybe I am cherrypicking, THIS is cherrypicking
Starting 11 days later, his last 22 games he hit .169 with an OPS of .391
He's also only 27 and has some pop in his bat. He's a classic Tampa-ish flier on a guy who's young enough to still maybe turn into something. He also raked in the WBC, with power. And he's from an ethnic Taiwanese minority called the Amis people who until now I did not know existed. So yay for me learning something?
We expect folks to show their work a bit better than this when posting here.
I don't think anyone is saying that or said that at the time. It was not trying to get a deal done before last season, especially when there were reports that he would have taken a deal similar to Story's.
Bloom never said it, but I think when he signed Story he was basically saying he preferred Story over Bogaerts, and they were never going to be ling-term teammates. Story was terrific defensively at second last year and would most likely still be a good defense shortstop. I much prefer Bogey as a hitter, but that ship has sailed.
We would be outwardly happy and inwardly nervous that in four years we won't like this deal. As of now, they have only Raffy as a top-flight major long-term commitment, so I guess we wouldn't be freaking out. But we would probably also be wondering whether the team is already out of consideration for Otani or another guy we like better.
Not for nothing, but I'd be very happy.
He's always hit poorly at most of the big stadiums out west (career numbers for OPS of .817 in Ari;.612 at LAD; .308 in SF; .750 in SD). He's always hit pretty well in the stadiums on the East Coast (731 in Bal; .752 in Tor; .756 in TB; .695 in NY and .870 at Fenway).
From a money standpoint, obviously SD was the best place for him. From a performance standpoint, anywhere out west was a huge mistake. Here in Boston, I feel pretty confident he'd still be right around the .800 OPS / 115 OPS+ player he's been his entire career, which would make him the 3rd most effective hitter on the team to this point.
Of course, it's obviously impossible to prove he'd be hitting the same way he had his entire career, but from a performance standpoint, is there anyone that thought he'd do better (or even the same) going out West vs staying in Boston?
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Which one? He's got some good ones.
Iglesias is not a free agent though, he signed back with the Padres a week ago:
https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player/jose-iglesias-11162?refer=SportsRef
I love to watch Iglesias play, and he is tearing it up so far in the PCL:
https://www.elpasotimes.com/story/sports/baseball/2023/06/06/el-paso-chihuahuas-infielder-jose-iglesias-earns-pacific-coast-league-award/70290166007/
I don't think I'd be very happy. At a minimum, I'd be very nervous. I'm not sure any of these metrics from the Billy Ashley's post yesterday would change at Fenway. (Where do these graphics come from, BTW? Not that I need another time waster in my life...)
You seem to be arguing for the sake of arguing. Iglesias is a better shortstop option than any healthy player on the Sox' 40-man. Full stop. I don't care about the other 29 clubs. I'm saying Bloom is braindead for not having signed Iglesias this offseason.
So you think all 30 teams are run by idiots, but ours is the biggest idiot for not signing a SS whose defense has heavily declined and whose offensive contribution is based on an empty batting average with almost no walks or power? Is that a good summary?
Iglesias has not been good defensively for a while, his -26 DRS since 2021 s one of the very worst numbers for any player in MLB, in the bottom six. Full stop, you don't know what you're talking about and should dial it back a few notches.
https://fieldingbible.com/DRSLeaderboard (change the 'start year' to 2021)
30 teams have now had 2 chances to sign him to major league deals and none have, not even in a backup role. So unless you think the Sox infield situation is by far the worst in all of baseball this argument doesn't hold up.
"Chihuahua is known for the vigor of its men, the force, as I say, of their primal energy. . ."
But GoTB gut feeling is probably the best stat right now and he says he’s numero uno!
He was right, though, I do sometimes argue for the sake of arguing. I have been married 30 years, though ,so I have that as an excuse.
The numbers come from Baseball Savant. I'm sure people here on SoSH have other sites they use for similar data that probably goes a bit more in-depth. For those of us whom still stick to things not behind a paywall (raises hand) it's a pretty cool website to look around at. If you didn't know about the site, hopefully it seems as something interesting to tool around on while working in the office (as I like to).
For Xander specifically, he's above average (red) on 7 of the 14 characteristics. I think of them similar to Leading Economic Indicators when talking about finance. They give some really good data points, but I don't think of them as the be all and end all to determining the value of a baseball player. For Xander specifically, they aren't that far off his batted ball data from his 2016, 2017 and 2022 seasons (his 2018, 2019 and 2021 numbers were all a lot better). Which is why I didn't say I thought he'd be the 130ish OPS+ player he was those seasons, but it's also why I think the 110/115 OPS+ numbers on average from the 2016, 2017 and 2022 seasons would have presented a reasonable baseline of expectation.
I am not smart enough to quantify or study this, but I'd assume that baseball savant data (hard hit rates) also punish players that are willing to situationally serve the ball to the opposite field, which I absolutely believe is a skill that some players have and some do not.
Maybe there is data somewhere to prove (or disprove me) but having watched Xander his whole career, he was excellent at serving the ball to the right side when necessary and his hit charts back that up, and he learned how to use both approaches at Fenway. As opposed to someone like Turner whom has much better "batted ball" data and was always an adept all fields hitter, but seems wholly incapable (or unwilling) to go the other way this year - probably a case of getting pull happy with the Wall.
Obviously the "no doubt studs" are those whom can mash the ball to stupid levels on the pull side and hit line drives going opposite, such as Devers, but I don't think anyone ever claimed Bogaerts was that kind of player.
The other part of the Bogaerts equation is "whom did we replace him with" or at least it always has been for me. The answer there is "nothing inspiring". Story was - ostensibly at least - supposed to be the plan at SS. I like Story, I'm glad we signed him (however it works out) but using batted ball data to put him over Bogaerts isn't necessarily helpful. His batted ball data looks a lot like Bogaerts (which is actually WHY I think Story will be a good fit for Fenway, and would be very pleased to have him at 2b and Bogaerts at SS for the next 5 years).
Removing Story (because we always were going to need 2 middle infielders, and my contention was wanting Bogaerts at one and Story at the other), batted ball data for Enrique Hernandez (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/enrique-hernandez-571771?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb); Christian Arroyo, whom always gets injured to the point of not having enough PAs to get meaningful sample sizes, but here is 2022 anyway (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/christian-arroyo-624414?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb); Rob Refsnyder (similarly not enough PAs but - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/rob-refsnyder-608701?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb) was always going to be a mess.
*I know "but Mayer is coming" is an argument, and I get it. Mayer could be a stud and perform the way Yoshida has. He could also struggle mightily the way Volpe and Casas have (just to name two stud prospects). I'm interested to see the player get up here too, but I would not have let that affect my approach to signing Bogaerts. I have no idea if Bloom did or did not and I'm not trying to say one way or the other.
All of which is a long winded way of saying - the batted ball data for Xander is pretty similar to what he put up in 2016, 2017 and 2022, and I think that is the kind of player he would have been for most of the hypothetical 7/$175m contract you mentioned being pleased we didn't sign him to, that I would have been thrilled with.
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