Let's look at how the Pats have handled the Back-up QB situation over the past 10 years, as that could shed some light on the team's thinking:
2017: 3? (Brady/Garoppolo?/Brissett)
2016: 3 (Brady/Garoppolo/Brissett-3rd Rd)
2015: 2 (Brady/Garoppolo)
2014: 2 (Brady/Garoppolo-2nd Rd)
2013: 2 (Brady/Mallett)
2012: 2 (Brady/Mallett)
2011: 3 (Brady/Hoyer/Mallett-4th Rd)
2010: 2 (Brady/Hoyer)
2009: 2 (Brady/Hoyer-UDFA)
2008: 3 (Brady/Cassel/O'Connell-3rd Rd)
I started the list in '08 because that's where the current "Backup QB Plan" comes into focus:
- O'Connell was drafted high as the Cassel successor, but it didn't work out. Cut after one season
- Interestingly, they didn't go for the traditional "veteran" QB in 2009 but went with UDFA rookie Brian Hoyer
- In Hoyer's 3rd year, a high pick is used to draft Mallet, the new backup heir apparent
- Mallet understudies for 1 season and then holds the job for 2 years.
- Garoppolo (2nd rd) impresses in training camp, and the team feels comfortable giving him the back-up job (the ability to extract some trade picks for Mallett may be a factor)
- In Garoppolo's 3rd season, the new heir apparent is drafted (Brissett), also with a high pick.
The common denominators:
- High picks for backup QBs
- No veterans
- Top back-up in position for no more than 3 seasons.
History strongly suggests that a Garoppolo trade is highly likely. Diminishing skills from an aging starter would certainly alter the calculus, but that's not the case here.