I mean, I'm in the camp that says hold him then. For me, another year of insurance + a rd 3 comp is not significantly worse than a 2 or whatever the Browns will be offering
There's tons of permutations (including what Stitch just said) that offer enough value and are more reasonable than the #1 pick (which would be completely unprecedented, btw).
If the Browns come with #12, yeah you take that.
If they come with #33 this year and their first or second next year, yeah you take that.
Add in filler on top of you like, but we are talking about one season of a backup.
Yes, I get that TB12 is 40 years old. Yes, I get he could have a career ending injury. Yes, I get QBs can fall of a cliff. But injury can't be accounted for and there's no reason to think his cliff fall will come this season. To the former, they've never placed an overt premium on the backup slot as a 'break glass in case of fire' situation and there's little reason to think that Brisset isn't on par with Miller, Hoyer, Cassel, Mallet or an aged Flutie or Testaverde, etc.
You're in your camp, I'm in the camp that there is no possible chance i see that the Patriots franchise him after next season (which would be paying him more than Brady to hold a clipboard and opens up a Kirk Cousins situation) to maintain control while waiting for Brady to call it quits or blow a knee or whatever. That's not how this team works and it's not how they manage the cap. It's completely against how they operate.
Wrapping ones head around the JG situation comes down to two things:
1. The organization never places a premium on one season over long term.
2. TB will never leave this franchise except on his own terms or career ending injury.
TB is signed for three more years. He will play those. So then what is the value of keeping JG for one season? Injury insurance and nothing more. Sure you could hypothetically tag him to trade, but what are you getting back? The tag move worked with Cassel but it was a lot lower then and MC had a full season of production.
If they get offered #12, or #33 and a second or first next season they should absolutely jump at it.
(I'll also add that counting on comp picks - which are a black box and can be null and void of the Pats sign FAs themselves - is foolish, imo. They could very well end up rolling over a big chunk of cap into next year, signing a couple big players like Gilmore and seeing literally nothing for losing JG to FA. And on top, if they don't figure out Butler, then they have to lose one of them for nothing, because they can't tag both.)