The Celtics Offseason

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,631
Santa Monica
These things are a bit flexible. I'd say 7 is the minimum number of guys you can count on to get through a full playoff run, 8 is better (because even if everyone is healthy, foul trouble and matchup issues do happen), but 9 is an ideal number because injuries do happen, especially on a team in which 4 of your top 7 are major health risks. Even taking Brogdon (and Tatum in game 7) into account, I don't think we'll get better injury luck in 2024.

FWIW this past year we had an 8 man rotation, with Grant being the 8th man (18 mpg, but did get 5 DNPs) and no one else playing more than 7 mpg, but that was with the rotation missing exactly one total game due to injury. In 2022, 9 guys saw real minutes, with Pritchard and Theis (13 mpg each, with some DNPs mixed in) at the end, and no one else getting more than a handful of minutes. TL, Horford, White and Smart missed a lot of time (12 combined games), meaning we absolutely needed 9 guys we could trust in the playoffs. I think that happens again this year, meaning we will absolutely need at least 2 of Pritchard/Hauser/Brissett/Walsh/Banton to step up, or we need real production from someone acquired via trade or buyout later in the year.
Brad has 2 2024 Firsts (Bos/GSW) to use at the trade deadline. That could land a really good TOP8/rotational player.

In a limited role, bench snipers like Hauser/Pritchard shouldn't really scare us. It's not like they would see any minutes in an elimination game (unless they earn that nod during the regular season, which is an outside possibility)

This is the best 7 they have had since they hoisted their last banner. Potential injuries are the Celtics' biggest roadblock.
 

mcpickl

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2007
4,557
Brad has 2 2024 Firsts (Bos/GSW) to use at the trade deadline. That could land a really good TOP8/rotational player.

In a limited role, bench snipers like Hauser/Pritchard shouldn't really scare us. It's not like they would see any minutes in an elimination game (unless they earn that nod during the regular season, which is an outside possibility)

This is the best 7 they have had since they hoisted their last banner. Potential injuries are the Celtics' biggest roadblock.
This is going to be a very small needle to thread.

He has two firsts, but if he's just looking to supplement his top 7, he has no salary to trade.

It's just Pritchard at 4M and minimum salaries.

Really limits them to guys making short money, maybe not even above the Grant TPE of 6.2M

Another sneaky downside of the KP trade, is not having Gallos expiring salary to aggregate into a bigger salaried guy in the last season the Celtics will likely be able to aggregate for a while.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,631
Santa Monica
This is going to be a very small needle to thread.

He has two firsts, but if he's just looking to supplement his top 7, he has no salary to trade.

It's just Pritchard at 4M and minimum salaries.

Really limits them to guys making short money, maybe not even above the Grant TPE of 6.2M

Another sneaky downside of the KP trade, is not having Gallos expiring salary to aggregate into a bigger salaried guy in the last season the Celtics will likely be able to aggregate for a while.
Thats fair...Mike/Brad's specialty is threading those tricky situations. The Brogdon acquisition was put together with spit, cardboard & scotch tape.

Firsts will open doors at the trade deadline and Boston will be an early call by rebuilders that covet them.

It's fruitless to try to figure out which teams will be tanking/waving the white flag, but there are always a few teams selling at the trade deadline.

If you slap 2 Firsts on Brogdon/PP/Kornet, that gets them ~$30MM in matching capital to attain two players superior to Malcolm (to create a TOP8).

For the record, my money is on Hauser taking that step as the 8th man. BUT they should always be looking to improve around the J-Zing core
 

RorschachsMask

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2011
5,621
Lynn
While I think it’s possible that they package their picks with Brogdon, or lower salary guys for someone at the deadline, I wouldn’t be surprised if they tried to hold onto their ammo for next summer, because there’s a real good chance multiple superstars will ask out.

Though if the right addition is on the table, that obviously changes things.
 

mcpickl

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2007
4,557
Thats fair...Mike/Brad's specialty is threading those tricky situations. The Brogdon acquisition was put together with spit, cardboard & scotch tape.

Firsts will open doors at the trade deadline and Boston will be an early call by rebuilders that covet them.

It's fruitless to try to figure out which teams will be tanking/waving the white flag, but there are always a few teams selling at the trade deadline.

If you slap 2 Firsts on Brogdon/PP/Kornet, that gets them ~$30MM in matching capital to attain two players superior to Malcolm (to create a TOP8).

For the record, my money is on Hauser taking that step as the 8th man. BUT they should always be looking to improve around the J-Zing core
They can for sure do this if they want to break Brogdon into multiple players, I've been trying to find a decent fit for this myself and failing.

But it will be pretty tough to supplement their top 7 without subtracting from it.

While I think it’s possible that they package their picks with Brogdon, or lower salary guys for someone at the deadline, I wouldn’t be surprised if they tried to hold onto their ammo for next summer, because there’s a real good chance multiple superstars will ask out.

Though if the right addition is on the table, that obviously changes things.
Celtics won't be able to aggregate salaries next summer.

Only way Celtics could get involved would be if they were sending out one of their guys that makes more money than that superstar.
 

RorschachsMask

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2011
5,621
Lynn
Celtics won't be able to aggregate salaries next summer.

Only way Celtics could get involved would be if they were sending out one of their guys that makes more money than that superstar.
Isn’t that only the case if they are over the second apron? The Celtics should be able to avoid it, unless I’ve read wrong.

Edit: It all depends on how much the cap raises. 4-5%, it would be impossible, 7 or over should be doable.
 
Last edited:

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,631
Santa Monica
They can for sure do this if they want to break Brogdon into multiple players, I've been trying to find a decent fit for this myself and failing.

But it will be pretty tough to supplement their top 7 without subtracting from it.
It's next to impossible to come up with trades now since we are at peak optimism around the NBA. Heck, there are folks who believe the Pistons are poised to do something other than contend for last again.

I've liked the idea of Brad finagling some kind of combination of Caruso/Kyle Anderson since Chicago/Minnesota are deep at those positions. Wizards will probably be sellers/conduits for the foreseeable future. Who knows how PDX/Dame will play out?

While neither Alex or Kyle are "better" than Brogdon in a vacuum, they may be better fits around the Celtics' core, wouldn't cost Boston their 1sts, and slightly lower the payroll if they need some room.
 

the moops

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 19, 2016
4,903
Saint Paul, MN
While neither Alex or Kyle are "better" than Brogdon in a vacuum, they may be better fits around the Celtics' core, wouldn't cost Boston their 1sts, and slightly lower the payroll if they need some room.
I don't think either of those guys are available and definitely not available if you aren't sending out 1st or 1sts
 

mcpickl

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2007
4,557
Isn’t that only the case if they are over the second apron? The Celtics should be able to avoid it, unless I’ve read wrong.

Edit: It all depends on how much the cap raises. 4-5%, it would be impossible, 7 or over should be doable.
The maximum the second apron will hit next year will be a bit short of 200M, the Celtics top 7 guys are going to make around 180M next season.

Keeping the 4 cheap guys they have under contract next year would put them around 190M with 4 spots open.

Would be nearly impossible to add another superstar salary in trade, stay under that 200M, and fill out a competitve roster.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,631
Santa Monica
I don't think either of those guys are available and definitely not available if you aren't sending out 1st or 1sts
Yea at the moment nobody is readily available for the reasons I gave above.

At the deadline, good players on the last year of their deals for non-contenders are much more attainable.

There really is not much reason for Brad to make any trades now, the team is regular season deep.
Probably add one more veteran, plus a 2-way, and go with a 14-man roster
 

Lazy vs Crazy

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
6,494
Slightly Worse Sam Hauser probably won't move the needle here. Seems very duplicative. Unless part of the plan is to trade Sam.
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
31,893
Slightly Worse Sam Hauser probably won't move the needle here. Seems very duplicative. Unless part of the plan is to trade Sam.
That was my initial reaction—he’s an ok role player but we already have a better version!

another data point that CJM’s plan is not to out tough or out defend anyone…and maybe it’ll work
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,754
Slightly Worse Sam Hauser probably won't move the needle here. Seems very duplicative. Unless part of the plan is to trade Sam.
With 15 man rosters pretty much any 14-15th man is going to be redundant to a player above them on the depth chart. For a contender you're looking to find veterans who have the ability to step into a small role if necessary.
 
Last edited:

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
31,893
With 15 man rosters pretty much any 14-15th man is going to be redundant to a player above them on the depth chart. For a contender you're looking to find veterans who have the ability to step into a small role if necessary.
Maybe—in Celts specific case the alternative to me was a Javonte Green-style defense/versatility guy rather than another guy whose primary value was shooting. There really isn’t a guy like that, other than possibility Jordan Walsh plays a role. Not sure that is better, but that was a very different choice for this spot
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
8,317
Skeptical of shooters who aren't good FT shooters. Svi 76% on 216 attempts.

Hauser 71% on only 17 NBA attempts but was 88% in college, 191/217.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,754
Maybe—in Celts specific case the alternative to me was a Javonte Green-style defense/versatility guy rather than another guy whose primary value was shooting. There really isn’t a guy like that, other than possibility Jordan Walsh plays a role. Not sure that is better, but that was a very different choice for this spot
Isn't that Walsh's exact role as a defensive-minded wing to play spot minutes in injury or B2B games? Of course that wouldn't be a reason not to sign him which is same with Svi and Hauser being on the roster together.
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
31,893
Isn't that Walsh's exact role as a defensive-minded wing to play spot minutes in injury or B2B games? Of course that wouldn't be a reason not to sign him which is same with Svi and Hauser being on the roster together.
Agreed—-essentially the choice is “vet defensive wing” vs “vet depth shooting wing”. I’d probably have gone with the former, but don’t care a great deal——I kind of like Walsh and minutes for him, and it’s some what easier to add the defensive wing later than a shooter later, I’ll guess. I was more just noting that there was a different profile out there, and a vet/rookie choice

Usually I”m skeptical about a wing/guard being able to be a material defensive contributor as a rookie; Walsh may exceed those expectations but that would be reason to want depth there
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,754
Agreed—-essentially the choice is “vet defensive wing” vs “vet depth shooting wing”. I’d probably have gone with the former, but don’t care a great deal——I kind of like Walsh and minutes for him, and it’s some what easier to add the defensive wing later than a shooter later, I’ll guess. I was more just noting that there was a different profile out there, and a vet/rookie choice

Usually I”m skeptical about a wing/guard being able to be a material defensive contributor as a rookie; Walsh may exceed those expectations but that would be reason to want depth there
One thing that is unique to this roster compared to those in the past is the glut of players who will be competing for those 9th-10th man minutes when guys go down. Without looking it seems like we have more NBA experience on the back end of the roster (sans Davison who may not be long for here anyway) than ever before.

It's a Catch-22 for these agents of young veterans who haven't yet defined themselves in this league. One school of thought, a very popular one, is to get them minutes on lottery teams for numbers but limited exposure....while the other is if they can find a way on to the floor and be successful in a limited role for a contender their visibility will skyrocket. The latter is more risky as the player may not get the opportunity but it really depends on the players skillset to find a system where he can best succeed.

Like, Bruce Brown isn't getting paid $20m next season if he was a Hornet last year....while a Moritz Wagner may not ever have seen the floor for a contender and not gotten his 2/$16m after being a 3rd string center. Hachimura is another one who has an elite role player skillset but is awful when having a more prominent role.
 
Last edited:

RorschachsMask

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2011
5,621
Lynn
I think Svi will be fighting with Pritchard for minutes, moreso than Hauser.

This team clearly doesn’t like having small PG’s that you can pick on defensively, and while Pritchard competes really hard on defense, he’s easily abused by bigger players.
 
Last edited:

the moops

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 19, 2016
4,903
Saint Paul, MN
I think Svi will be fighting with Pritchard for minutes, moreso than Hauser.

This team clearly doesn’t like having small PG’s that you can pick on defensively, and while Pritchard competes really hard on defense, he’s easily abused by bigger players.
Pritchard has played almost 3000 minutes over these past 3 years. I don't think there is much evidence that they don't like playing him. His numbers dipped last year because they had 3 PGs that were clearly better in Smart, White, and Brogdon. I would expect Pritchard to play well over 1000 minutes this year
 

RorschachsMask

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2011
5,621
Lynn
Pritchard has played almost 3000 minutes over these past 3 years. I don't think there is much evidence that they don't like playing him. His numbers dipped last year because they had 3 PGs that were clearly better in Smart, White, and Brogdon. I would expect Pritchard to play well over 1000 minutes this year
I’d expect Pritchard to play a lot too, I’m just saying I think that Svi’s best chance for minutes on this team is as a ball handler, I don’t think he impacts Hauser’s minutes at all.

The Celtics can play Pritch, and still not love having a small pg that can be picked on. Brad has been all about adding length to the roster, IMO.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,754
I’d expect Pritchard to play a lot too, I’m just saying I think that Svi’s best chance for minutes on this team is as a ball handler, I don’t think he impacts Hauser’s minutes at all.

The Celtics can play Pritch, and still not love having a small pg that can be picked on. Brad has been all about adding length to the roster, IMO.
I agree on all this. Pritchard has always been used out of necessity or insurance rather than as part of a long term plan for him to be a part of the regular rotation. Ideal insurance policy on a cheap rookie deal and when that deal is up so will his career as a Celtic like many other similar players in that role at different positions.
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
31,893
What are these other data points?
Off top of my head, CJM's stated desire to prioirtize spacing; comments by Grant Williams and other players last year and in post-season/summer; apparent commitment to increasing PP and Hauser minutes; trading Smart; playing smaller lineups with better spacing and worse defense stats.

I am not sure CJM is wrong about optimizing the roster/chances to win, but iI don't think it's controversial or all that debateable what his preferences are
 

the moops

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 19, 2016
4,903
Saint Paul, MN
Off top of my head, CJM's stated desire to prioirtize spacing; comments by Grant Williams and other players last year and in post-season/summer; apparent commitment to increasing PP and Hauser minutes; trading Smart; playing smaller lineups with better spacing and worse defense stats.

I am not sure CJM is wrong about optimizing the roster/chances to win, but iI don't think it's controversial or all that debateable what his preferences are
Boston had a top 5 (perhaps even top 3) defense last year. Sure, they lost Smart, but more minutes for White and another big defender in Porzingis should easily offset that loss.
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
31,893
Boston had a top 5 (perhaps even top 3) defense last year. Sure, they lost Smart, but more minutes for White and another big defender in Porzingis should easily offset that loss.
No one is disputing that, and I certainly did not say they are likely to have a bad defense. But as you surely know, they were a lot better than that under Ime too so my point stands about what they've shifted.

As has been discussed in various threads, the other implication of the changes is that they likely are moving away from a switching scheme, impacting the defense. Again, not saying this is bad just noting the choices and likely motivators. I actually wonder if we mgiht want a "Celtics Defense 2023" thread as scheme (away from switching, various people speculating on use of zone) and effectveness are good topics to be engaging on over time.

I do personally like idea of KP as a second rim protector who doesn't impact spacing on offense, and also agree that White's quickness will, in may matchups, actually help relative to Smart. It's the versatility that is impacted.
 
Last edited:

Auger34

used to be tbb
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
10,204
Off top of my head, CJM's stated desire to prioirtize spacing; comments by Grant Williams and other players last year and in post-season/summer; apparent commitment to increasing PP and Hauser minutes; trading Smart; playing smaller lineups with better spacing and worse defense stats.

I am not sure CJM is wrong about optimizing the roster/chances to win, but iI don't think it's controversial or all that debateable what his preferences are
Agreed...and you are obviously not saying that this means that the Celtics don't care about defense at all or that they are going to be bad on defense in the future.
However, Ime prioritized defense/toughness when it came to fitting people around the "core"...it's pretty clear that CJM prioritizes shooting/spacing. Brad is mitigating some of that by going after players with length
 

Devizier

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 3, 2000
19,717
Somewhere
A huge part of the defensive decline was due to the Timelord injury, IMHO. I think the Celtics have enough redundancy to cover for Smart but if Timelord is still hobbled I think they will still peak out at good but not great on that front.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
12,827
A huge part of the defensive decline was due to the Timelord injury, IMHO. I think the Celtics have enough redundancy to cover for Smart but if Timelord is still hobbled I think they will still peak out at good but not great on that front.
Yeah, they were basically the same team under both coaches sans peak Timelord. Probably a better offense with Mazzulla. Games 4-6 against Miami were really, really good defensively--they have a level they can hit under Joe in that regard.

There were some very low defensive notes in the 2023 playoffs, but people forget how good their locked-in defense looked at times, mostly because Tatum rolled an ankle and that altered how we viewed the season.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
31,150
A huge part of the defensive decline was due to the Timelord injury, IMHO. I think the Celtics have enough redundancy to cover for Smart but if Timelord is still hobbled I think they will still peak out at good but not great on that front.
I'm with the people who say that the Cs were never as connected defensively last year as they were in the 2nd half of 2021-22.

But OTOH that's okay with me. IMO, the way they played defense in 2021-22 lead to a lot of TOs/bad shots and run outs, which is why they were destroying everyone. But I think we have seen that in the playoffs, teams have to be able to run 1/2 court offense against good teams. I will very happily sacrifice some of their defensive dominance for an ability to generate good looks against locked-in, switchable defenses down the stretch.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,631
Santa Monica
One takeaway from this interview, Brad feels PP was "squeezed out".

Sounds like Brad's equation for the off-season was the talent level of KP + PP > Smart + Grant. Brad said they were thin up front last season. Losing Grant makes them even thinner.

Smart + Grant put up a total of 4000 minutes last season, that's a lot to cover. If Payton is healthy I wouldn't be shocked to see him put up 1500 minutes (esp with Brogdon fragility). They'll need Hauser, Luke, & others to sop up a lot of those minutes.

This team will need to add a "rotational" 4/5 in-season unless TL/KP/Al are healthy, and that is a tough thing to bet on.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14x25YZOA_k
 

128

Member
SoSH Member
May 4, 2019
10,200
One takeaway from this interview, Brad feels PP was "squeezed out".

Sounds like Brad's equation for the off-season was the talent level of KP + PP > Smart + Grant. Brad said they were thin up front last season. Losing Grant makes them even thinner.

Smart + Grant put up a total of 4000 minutes last season, that's a lot to cover. If Payton is healthy I wouldn't be shocked to see him put up 1500 minutes (esp with Brogdon fragility). They'll need Hauser, Luke, & others to sop up a lot of those minutes.

This team will need to add a "rotational" 4/5 in-season unless TL/KP/Al are healthy, and that is a tough thing to bet on.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14x25YZOA_k
If Brad is concerned about Porzingis' foot, he's doing a hell of a job of hiding it in these recent interviews.
 

pjheff

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2003
1,348
Smart + Grant put up a total of 4000 minutes last season, that's a lot to cover. If Payton is healthy I wouldn't be shocked to see him put up 1500 minutes (esp with Brogdon fragility). They'll need Hauser, Luke, & others to sop up a lot of those minutes.
KP played 2120 minutes last year.

What I took away from that interview is that Brad envisions PP as the #8 man in the rotation over Hauser and Brissett. I wonder if the plan is to play him as the small when White isn’t on the court and use Brogdon more in the wing rotation with Tatum and Brown.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
31,150
In defense of Malcolm Brogdon. Some numbers from this article:

Remember: the job Brogdon came to do was steady the offense when it grew stagnant. He can realize that potential if he plays when Boston needs him the most – down the stretch.
Taking Smart out of the equation also means that Brogdon gets to play most of his time at the point guard position. Last season he spent most of his minutes sharing the court with either Smart or White. That’s big for Brogdon, who is significantly better when he plays the one versus the two, per Cleaning the Glass. Lineups with Brogdon running point outscored opponents by 7.4 points per 100 possessions, while those with him at shooting guard were essentially a wash, with a differential of -0.1 points.
A review of all the rotation players Brogdon played with last season shows that one of his worst statistical pairings was with Marcus Smart. The two-man lineup played almost 600 minutes together and held a net rating of 3.1, according to NBA Stats. No Smart means more time with the ball in Brogdon’s hands, and more minutes with Tatum and Brown.
His best statistical partner? Robert Williams. And with a net rating of 11.1, it wasn’t particularly close. If both of these guys stay healthy, they will continue to be a very nice pick-and-roll tandem.
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
31,893
In defense of Malcolm Brogdon. Some numbers from this article:

Remember: the job Brogdon came to do was steady the offense when it grew stagnant. He can realize that potential if he plays when Boston needs him the most – down the stretch.
Taking Smart out of the equation also means that Brogdon gets to play most of his time at the point guard position. Last season he spent most of his minutes sharing the court with either Smart or White. That’s big for Brogdon, who is significantly better when he plays the one versus the two, per Cleaning the Glass. Lineups with Brogdon running point outscored opponents by 7.4 points per 100 possessions, while those with him at shooting guard were essentially a wash, with a differential of -0.1 points.
A review of all the rotation players Brogdon played with last season shows that one of his worst statistical pairings was with Marcus Smart. The two-man lineup played almost 600 minutes together and held a net rating of 3.1, according to NBA Stats. No Smart means more time with the ball in Brogdon’s hands, and more minutes with Tatum and Brown.
His best statistical partner? Robert Williams. And with a net rating of 11.1, it wasn’t particularly close. If both of these guys stay healthy, they will continue to be a very nice pick-and-roll tandem.
Great pull, thanks for sharing. I'm less down on Brogdon than some, and this is especially enlightening about the possibilities. Would that set up a rotation where Brogdon is 'sixth man' often wtih TL, and closing lineup is often without him?
 

pjheff

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2003
1,348
Would that set up a rotation where Brogdon is 'sixth man' often wtih TL, and closing lineup is often without him?
Seemingly yes. The bigger question to me is how to juggle the rotations so as to be able to score when Tatum is on the bench. Since he seems to be a slow starter, I’d probably give Tatum an early rest and let Jaylen cook with most of the starters and then bring Tatum back with the deeper rotation guys who can shoot.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
31,150
Great pull, thanks for sharing. I'm less down on Brogdon than some, and this is especially enlightening about the possibilities. Would that set up a rotation where Brogdon is 'sixth man' often wtih TL, and closing lineup is often without him?
I think MB will be sixth man but they are going to try to get him into the closing lineups at least at the beginning to see how they do. But I'm sure there will be times when the Big 3, White, and Al are closing out games too (depending on matchup).

There's a pretty good chance that we look back and conclude that BOS was lucky they kept MB. For example, I'm firmly convinced that the Cs would have beat MIA if MB hadn't hurt his arm. I mean he was getting wide open looks when he played.
 

Lose Remerswaal

Experiencing Furry Panic
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member