Damn sorry. Did you click late 3Q or early 4Q? I had to log into to several sites and get mine in before I could get here.
Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!
- Thread starter HomeRunBaker
- Start date
* Under 229.5 Warriors/Clippers
My overnights are popping up. I'd be playing this even if it weren't a day game but it turns into a pretty strong one since it is. I'd imagine this number crashes by morning. It has to....but I've said that so much on day games that never do so who knows. Normal start time I'm still at 225 here.
My overnights are popping up. I'd be playing this even if it weren't a day game but it turns into a pretty strong one since it is. I'd imagine this number crashes by morning. It has to....but I've said that so much on day games that never do so who knows. Normal start time I'm still at 225 here.
I bet it right before the Tatum ejection. The scoring and pace slowed in the 3rd and I wanted to get in.
The bet went through and the ejection happened, after the FT the line jumped to 246.
I got in on the over early after seeing that Embiid was out. I think it was 216.5. Taking HRB long standing advice--- with Embiid out, pace goes up.
Thanks @HomeRunBaker
Thanks @HomeRunBaker
Denver is shooting 21-27 from the field and the Suns are at 50%. 83 points early 2Q. The pace is not that of a track meet. Took some Under 236.5 for 25% of my anticipated overall play just bc this may be the high point and I'm having FOMO vibes. I'll post if I'm about to add later which I am planning to do but we'll see.
HRB lighting the lamp all over the place! Nice work and the thanks for sharing
Great night of live betting as it should be. When I'm in my cocoon without distractions I will try and give heads up on Live setups (ex: last nights late game) as they are usually of the developing nature as opposed to an injury or in last nights case, a quick Tatum ejection that the live algos aren't adjusting on. It's easy on a night like last night when only NBA and CFB on my live radar but impossible on a night like tonight with UFC going and my screens up ready to click.
Aside from Clippers/Warriors Under I think Phoenix is good tonight off a loss and a Grizzlies win that we ended up passing on (see upthread). Will decide on Full Game at -9 or 1H at -5 shortly. The Double Result is juiced up to -180 which is expected but wanted to see this under -155 or so.....it's nice to want things. Also leaning to Hornets/Wolved Under 220 without Ball as Charlotte's pace suffers when he's in street clothes and Rozier sliding to the point. They should struggle against the Wolves defense but this is one early start when I don't like it being early as the Wolved defense may be on autopilot so undecided on pulling trigger here. Def playing Phoenix just unsure of how yet.
Edit: I'm not the player prop guy but Durant was 0-10 at one point in the 2H with just about all of them halfway down....it literally looked like he was shooting on double rims. I'd expect a good bounce back for him but you always have the risk of him sitting out the 4Q if it's a blowout on the back end of a B2B.I won't be playing it for that reason as 20+ with 6 to go and him not returning is live here but just a thought.
Edit: I'm not the player prop guy but Durant was 0-10 at one point in the 2H with just about all of them halfway down....it literally looked like he was shooting on double rims. I'd expect a good bounce back for him but you always have the risk of him sitting out the 4Q if it's a blowout on the back end of a B2B.I won't be playing it for that reason as 20+ with 6 to go and him not returning is live here but just a thought.
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I like the logic. May partake. Lillard can’t defend so Young should get his. Really high o/u in that one as well.
If you’re looking to gamble NBA player props, @travis_frase is the first guy you should be following on Twitter.
He’s helped make me a lot of money over the past few years. Has really good write ups as well.
He’s helped make me a lot of money over the past few years. Has really good write ups as well.
Dray and Kuminga combining for 6 threes in the first is something. Looks like it's going to be a flip in the second half. Hopefully we're on the right side of it.
I cut my losses and bailed. No one told the Warriors this was a 1 pm game and now there’s no defense being played from either side.
Great call on the Warriors.
To mitigate on your Durant sitting out the 4th risk, you could bet him O7.5 1st quarter points.
Hope you partook. I smashed this somewhat out of frustration for bailing out of the Warriors/Clips under early.
Yup. Made out pretty well. Did some combos with Lillard getting 25 so sweating out that one a bit.
In game Suns betting near/at the half after I forget to hit it earlier was nice.
-5.5, -6.5, -7.5, -8.5 all at + odds is nice given it’s now -13.5 and can hedge some back or not…. Thanks as always for these HRB and especially for the thought process behind it so we can all learn and develop our own capping skills. My favorite part of these threads is when non HRB people use HRB insights to highlight the right sight lines. Like watching your own kid take some lessons and prove it on their own.
-5.5, -6.5, -7.5, -8.5 all at + odds is nice given it’s now -13.5 and can hedge some back or not…. Thanks as always for these HRB and especially for the thought process behind it so we can all learn and develop our own capping skills. My favorite part of these threads is when non HRB people use HRB insights to highlight the right sight lines. Like watching your own kid take some lessons and prove it on their own.
Hey folks, a question for you. I'm still very much a novice at the finer points of this, so... cc @HomeRunBaker @Brand Name
Tonight, I had hit on 3/4 legs of a parlay, the 4th being Jimmy Butler u27.5. He had 8 points at the half and the other three were already locked in. Is it a good idea to (sorta) hedge here? His halftime o/u was like 21.5, should have I considered trying to bet that over in the hopes that he perks up and maybe I get my money back? A loss is just 2 units, but a win there means I basically break even and I could even middle it.
Also, I hit two of my five parlays tonight, so I'm up to +58.95. If it's not weird to spam this thread, I'll link my posts there.
And I'm gonna keep trailing some of the sharper people in the Reddits. There's some people who clearly have a good fuckin idea of what they're doing. If I find anything, I'll post it.
Tonight, I had hit on 3/4 legs of a parlay, the 4th being Jimmy Butler u27.5. He had 8 points at the half and the other three were already locked in. Is it a good idea to (sorta) hedge here? His halftime o/u was like 21.5, should have I considered trying to bet that over in the hopes that he perks up and maybe I get my money back? A loss is just 2 units, but a win there means I basically break even and I could even middle it.
Also, I hit two of my five parlays tonight, so I'm up to +58.95. If it's not weird to spam this thread, I'll link my posts there.
And I'm gonna keep trailing some of the sharper people in the Reddits. There's some people who clearly have a good fuckin idea of what they're doing. If I find anything, I'll post it.
If it’s me, barring some injury news or outside reason why Butler can’t get to 27, I’m locking in some of that profit. You’re basically running a portfolio of options where you’re getting ~10-1 per collection. Once you get down to one left the odds of you getting paid are still 10-1, but your outcome is more 50/50ish. So you’re getting 10-1 for a 2-1 scenario. Pretty good… why get greedy? Again back to an options trade, I’m taking some profits if it’s a trade. You can’t do that here, but you can bet the other side to lock some in. That’s off the bat. Now if you have conviction in your side, you can try to get cute with it and wait for in game. You take your specific scenario where it’s 21 and you are worried about 28, not only can you lock in a 5x hit, but you’re potentially looking at a 15 unit win with such a wide spread.
The only two things that matter in your strategy are hit rate and payout ratio. If you’re getting 10-1, you need to hit >10% of the time to breakeven. If you get into several of these “one leg left” scenarios you can dramatically take your hit rate up by hedging. Like I’d think you go from 15% to 25 or 30% (I’m sure you can look through your picks to check) and your blended payout ratio is still going to be like 8-1, which is fantastic.
Another way to think about it. If you bought a call option on a stock when it was at $100, but had to get to $200 to make 10-1, are you holding the full position when the stock gets to $180, or are you taking some profits? The market doesn’t give a shit if you’re going to be right or not and your risk/reward has totally changed. Why be a hero?
There are different schools of thought out there on hedging and really it is up to how the individual handles risk and bankroll management while generating the best long term return.
Try this exercise. Take the money out of it, view this as you are posting on a website tracking your units (like you were doing last year). Your goal is to accumulate as many units as possible by the end of the year using unit management tools. If this were last year would you post a hedge wager on the website to generate an optimal return on Butler? Listen to what your answer is and trust it.
The best way to approach gambling, and I know this sounds weird, is to take the money out of it. It's how I learned how to wager on sports which I learned from playing poker professionally for a decade. You're playing a game to earn an optimal return....the chips are the score, they aren't cash. It's the same here. The units are the score, don't think of them as cash or it can affect your process in big spots. You set the bankroll prior to even engaging in the game so you compartmentalize the chips from cash and the betting units from cash. This should help you make optimal decisions since you are now only focusing on the decision and not on the cash.
Good stuff!!
The Association takes the required day off from scheduling games the day prior to the IST Quarterfinals today. I am very excited to see a) The tempo/intensity of Mondays game and b) How is correlates to the tempo/intensity of Tuesdays games.
This is a copycat league and all players participating on Tues will likely be watching the games on Monday. Live betting, 2H betting and Tuesday overnights should be a gold mine if opportunity and edges. I am thinking the pregame 2H and 4Q Totals will not be adjusted from a regular season game so maybe some preflop edge here too.
No prob!
I was thinking about this in relation to the Pacers. Even when they lose, they push the pace of game and the Celtics scored 155 against them and won by 51 last month.
Here's my first parlay for tomorrow. I'll be updating the post as lines comes in.
IST Quarters
* Pelicans +4
* Knicks +5
Pels have CJ back and gave him and others a full rest game yesterday so they seem to be targeting this game best. Knicks I feel are built for this type of event with Thibs and I don't rate the Bucks very highly at the moment.
* Pelicans +4
* Knicks +5
Pels have CJ back and gave him and others a full rest game yesterday so they seem to be targeting this game best. Knicks I feel are built for this type of event with Thibs and I don't rate the Bucks very highly at the moment.
I cannot fond quarter lines on DK/FD? Can someone confirm these aren’t offered?
Too early. I was saying to keep eye out for them to see if they remain in that 4Q reg season 56-ish range.
Brunson’s points are set at 25.5 for tomorrow against the Bucks. The Knicks only scored 105 in their first matchup, but Brunson scored 45 of those points.
I think the Knicks are live to win this thing as the longest shot on the board. Best I saw is +1400 which is a laughable price when you can simply parlay each games ML yourself and earn double or slightly more. Instead I played a correlated tournament MVP on Jalen Brunson at +2800. If the Knicks were to go 3-0 they will need Brunson to be the best player on the floor.
That’s a really great call. Where are you finding that MVP bet? I see the Pellys and Pacers with bigger odds.
Added some more, including a 9-way parlay that I'm certain won't hit but... the lines are really, really, really good for 9 lines in a single game. I've never seen that many that are good in one game, so fuck it?
I know it’s not the NBA but I’m triggered by your post and have to vent. Yesterday I missed a 9 leg SFP parlay by 21 yards for Brandon Aiyuk. Bet $100 to win $3,600. Due to the blowout there was no need for them to pass so it went poof.
Gamblin’.
Gamblin’.
I really, really like the Knicks to cover as well, from both a bottom-up (model) and top-down (source of truth) perspective. Flat out win wouldn't shock me at all.
As for like digestible rationale and in coach-speak, I'm not at all sold on Milwuakee's defensive cohesiveness and really definitional roles--who does what? They have a ton of questions internally that I'm not even sure Griffin knows yet, and that's not just because of their start, though that plays a role too. The fact of it is, Middleton isn't what he was but also when you bring in someone new like Lillard to play major minutes who is a defensive liability, but you have to find out what he's capable of in this short of a turnaround? Reeks of an issue. This is especially true when points are realistically at a premium, so each possession scored (and thus allowed) matters more towards the end score. It's kind of like how in football the metric of game efficiency isn't points total, it's the rate of points/drive, or possession is more an applicable denominator since this is basketball.
For them to draw the Knicks, who I think are the most defined in such a role of the remaining eight, is a terrible matchup, especially considering this is very much expected to be a playoff-style total and pace. It's unders city time too. Ride it, get in early.
So the real questions that HRB didn't hit on are these axioms that I'd use internally in an at-large way as someone who doesn't play parlays, but it's similar logic in part to how I handle long futures:
1) Do you need the money? Like, yes, don't think of it as money, but if you're dead desperate, you shouldn't have placed it anyway. Cash out. This is 99.9% not going to be the case but it's something I'd say applies to genuinely destitute, bankrupt, and addict amblers. Need is not a loose term here, it's like this is money that could've gone towards critical bills or lifesaving stuff. If it means you have to wait a few days for beer, that is not a need.
2) Let's say you don't need the money, what are you being offered? Calculate the value of the legs that have hit plus the additional payment for the in-play progress relative to the potential end payout. From there, you can determine and calculate effectively what they're offering you for that final leg. If you show me an example with what the cash out is, I can solve it for you and show how it's done, step by step. This goes to the last point...
3) What are your own odds of the event happening at that exact moment? If it's less probable than the relative cashout is based on the calculation from 2, you cash out. If it's considerably more probable than the odds implied, and it often is since cashouts often are poor value, you play on. My personal belief is that a lot of in-game live price discovery is beatable, so you'll have to think fast here. This can be your own metrics, what you're seeing on field (game pace and flow are massive!), etc.
4) Hedging is if #3 winds up being pretty close and you'd be okay with whatever goes down thereafter. I personally don't like doing this on my own because each bet I place has net positive expected value at the time of bet. That's why I place it, which should be universally held of a thought. Even if someone knows nothing, that should be the thought process: My return's implied probability exceeds that of the book's probability. That is to say, by example: I have this event at 55% to happen, the book sees it at 50%.
4a) If the market moves against me, I understand taking a contrary, buyout position pre-game (and it better be hella +EV at the new point, Martingaling is a long term loser) since you minimize your losses. That said, almost never do the contrary Martingale, this one is a super rare exception, not even close to the rule. The line moves against you, you've probably majorly missed the boat in when to maximize, barring really fresh news like additional injuries. If you play this move even once a year, that's almost assuredly far too much. I included this to be comprehensive more than anything else. Not to suggest it remotely regularly.
Also, don't trust the people on Reddit. Not to say there can't be sharps in there but there are a few reasons.
A) Reddit as a system is flawed for observing this. Anyone can go on a heater and make an account just for that. Once it fizzles, inevitably that account closes and a new one opens up. Rinse and repeat. It can work for some like Berryhorse (oh HRB knows what I think of him lately...) in the long term but it's not great that of a site to source given Reddit's magnitude and size I can think of one public, prominent example.
B) The fact of most sharp behavior, and it's why I don't post my stuff as much, is that if you win at a profitable, long-term rate, you don't want it out in the open too too much. I gladly make a SoSH exception since I value this place so much. However: If your edges are out in the open, more people see them, means less a chance for you to get in on them. That edge could go away just as fast, if not faster if some out catches up with you OR someone also finds said edge, beating you to the punch. There's not much upside to doing this.
We need to have a talk about parlays and hold, and the best ways to make that work, for both you and OCD. If my migraine goes away I might do it here later tonight post-game. I'm always cool with you linking the stuff here though!
As for like digestible rationale and in coach-speak, I'm not at all sold on Milwuakee's defensive cohesiveness and really definitional roles--who does what? They have a ton of questions internally that I'm not even sure Griffin knows yet, and that's not just because of their start, though that plays a role too. The fact of it is, Middleton isn't what he was but also when you bring in someone new like Lillard to play major minutes who is a defensive liability, but you have to find out what he's capable of in this short of a turnaround? Reeks of an issue. This is especially true when points are realistically at a premium, so each possession scored (and thus allowed) matters more towards the end score. It's kind of like how in football the metric of game efficiency isn't points total, it's the rate of points/drive, or possession is more an applicable denominator since this is basketball.
For them to draw the Knicks, who I think are the most defined in such a role of the remaining eight, is a terrible matchup, especially considering this is very much expected to be a playoff-style total and pace. It's unders city time too. Ride it, get in early.
HRB said this really well, as always. I have a little bit to add here.
So the real questions that HRB didn't hit on are these axioms that I'd use internally in an at-large way as someone who doesn't play parlays, but it's similar logic in part to how I handle long futures:
1) Do you need the money? Like, yes, don't think of it as money, but if you're dead desperate, you shouldn't have placed it anyway. Cash out. This is 99.9% not going to be the case but it's something I'd say applies to genuinely destitute, bankrupt, and addict amblers. Need is not a loose term here, it's like this is money that could've gone towards critical bills or lifesaving stuff. If it means you have to wait a few days for beer, that is not a need.
2) Let's say you don't need the money, what are you being offered? Calculate the value of the legs that have hit plus the additional payment for the in-play progress relative to the potential end payout. From there, you can determine and calculate effectively what they're offering you for that final leg. If you show me an example with what the cash out is, I can solve it for you and show how it's done, step by step. This goes to the last point...
3) What are your own odds of the event happening at that exact moment? If it's less probable than the relative cashout is based on the calculation from 2, you cash out. If it's considerably more probable than the odds implied, and it often is since cashouts often are poor value, you play on. My personal belief is that a lot of in-game live price discovery is beatable, so you'll have to think fast here. This can be your own metrics, what you're seeing on field (game pace and flow are massive!), etc.
4) Hedging is if #3 winds up being pretty close and you'd be okay with whatever goes down thereafter. I personally don't like doing this on my own because each bet I place has net positive expected value at the time of bet. That's why I place it, which should be universally held of a thought. Even if someone knows nothing, that should be the thought process: My return's implied probability exceeds that of the book's probability. That is to say, by example: I have this event at 55% to happen, the book sees it at 50%.
4a) If the market moves against me, I understand taking a contrary, buyout position pre-game (and it better be hella +EV at the new point, Martingaling is a long term loser) since you minimize your losses. That said, almost never do the contrary Martingale, this one is a super rare exception, not even close to the rule. The line moves against you, you've probably majorly missed the boat in when to maximize, barring really fresh news like additional injuries. If you play this move even once a year, that's almost assuredly far too much. I included this to be comprehensive more than anything else. Not to suggest it remotely regularly.
Also, don't trust the people on Reddit. Not to say there can't be sharps in there but there are a few reasons.
A) Reddit as a system is flawed for observing this. Anyone can go on a heater and make an account just for that. Once it fizzles, inevitably that account closes and a new one opens up. Rinse and repeat. It can work for some like Berryhorse (oh HRB knows what I think of him lately...) in the long term but it's not great that of a site to source given Reddit's magnitude and size I can think of one public, prominent example.
B) The fact of most sharp behavior, and it's why I don't post my stuff as much, is that if you win at a profitable, long-term rate, you don't want it out in the open too too much. I gladly make a SoSH exception since I value this place so much. However: If your edges are out in the open, more people see them, means less a chance for you to get in on them. That edge could go away just as fast, if not faster if some out catches up with you OR someone also finds said edge, beating you to the punch. There's not much upside to doing this.
We need to have a talk about parlays and hold, and the best ways to make that work, for both you and OCD. If my migraine goes away I might do it here later tonight post-game. I'm always cool with you linking the stuff here though!
Very cool stuff @Brand Name. Thank you for being so comprehensive, it really means a lot getting lessons from the likes of you and HRB.
I fully understand that I have not, uh, figured out how to maximize the edge from the parlays (and I know SGPs in general get shit odds).
I fully understand that I have not, uh, figured out how to maximize the edge from the parlays (and I know SGPs in general get shit odds).
Just want to chime in, and say how much I appreciate this thread. I was talking to my brother about it last week. Neither of us play for high stakes--I compared it to scratch ticket levels of wagering (just the other side of 'for entertainment purposes only'). Except, we are maximizing our chances of scratching a winner based on what I've learned here. "Hey, take the under on this Saturday afternoon game in LA... or this team is coming off of an OT loss and playing back to back...expect the home dog to cover" It's not 100%, but much better than going to the corner store and saying "gimme a #2, and a #11" . And there is the added bonus of getting me invested in game I wouldn't necessarily pay attention to. So thanks all
I considered splitting it up, but I already have .25 unit on different parlays, so I'm just sticking with the 1 unit total for the game.
Brand Name, awesome stuff and thank you for taking the time for sharing. All that peruse this thread are lucky to have you and HRB spending your time educating us. Thank you both!
I can’t get over this Celts/Pacers O/U total going parabolic…. Up to 246.5! Should be some great in game moments to take the under.
If I may ask, how do you expect it to go? Like, do you think the pace will be faster than anticipated so the o/u will rise higher than the pregame, and then you expect the D to come out in the 2nd half/4th Q?