Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!

CaptainLaddie

dj paul pfieffer
SoSH Member
Sep 6, 2004
37,136
where the darn libs live
Check Fanduel again. Cam Johnson is at 15.5 - Cam Thomas is not listed. I do not have BBM to verify those numbers, but that O/U discrepancy will probably be adjusted soon.
WHEW okay thank you. Glad I didn't take it yet. But that O/U is pretty wild on the total -- BBM is pretty good about not making huge changes to their projections, usually only a point or two here and there. CHA / CHI is similar -- FD has the o219.5, and their projection is 238.42. I can't imagine they're going to revise the projection for tomorrow down 19 points.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Back at it tonight! Celtics/Pacers 4Q Under was well on its way to cashing, Pels/Kings 4Q Under cashed and neither were properly priced with both at 60.5. Watch for these live aa game slows down espeically the second game as both can crawl in the 4Q. Pregame numbers have been adjusted some to 55 and 55.5 but it should be a couple points lower so I still see some pregame 4Q Under value.

As far as sides played the Knicks good with some ML sprinkle and passed on Laker game pre.
 

CaptainLaddie

dj paul pfieffer
SoSH Member
Sep 6, 2004
37,136
where the darn libs live
WHEW okay thank you. Glad I didn't take it yet. But that O/U is pretty wild on the total -- BBM is pretty good about not making huge changes to their projections, usually only a point or two here and there. CHA / CHI is similar -- FD has the o219.5, and their projection is 238.42. I can't imagine they're going to revise the projection for tomorrow down 19 points.
Annoyed. I pointed this out to their lead analyst and now the numbers have changed dramatically. Argh.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Not a lot of 3's
Not a lot of pace

Got some U228.5 at the last timeout. This game has already slowed to a grindfest.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Added 2H Under 114 before it was quickly bet down to 113 and took more there. Effective 220 & 219.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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WHEW okay thank you. Glad I didn't take it yet. But that O/U is pretty wild on the total -- BBM is pretty good about not making huge changes to their projections, usually only a point or two here and there. CHA / CHI is similar -- FD has the o219.5, and their projection is 238.42. I can't imagine they're going to revise the projection for tomorrow down 19 points.
My only overnight play last night was Over 220 in Hornets/Bulls. I have this pretty far off too, but not THAT much, although it's already being bet up early this morning to 222. I'm at 227.

That other game I think your guys are way off as I have it fairly priced. I love this stuff. Keep them coming.

The other thing I wanted to mention with the intensity of these IST games is to watch for adrenaline dumps that leaves these teams flat once they have a "normal" regular season game on their schedule. This could lead to a nice post-Vegas fade of one of the four semi finalists.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
30,730
Pacers/Bucks tomorrow at 5pm EST. Indiana won a month ago, 126-124 and here are the scores from last seasons matchups with Bucks winning 3 of 4....

132-119
141-131
139-123
149-136

Weird start time so variance gets a bump, neutral court so another bump, both teams coming off blistering 3-pt shooting on their home floor.....crazy stuff is all on the table. Will it be a layup line or will defenses pick up? Hard pass preflop.
 

Red Averages

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Apr 20, 2003
9,242
Pacers/Bucks tomorrow at 5pm EST. Indiana won a month ago, 126-124 and here are the scores from last seasons matchups with Bucks winning 3 of 4....

132-119
141-131
139-123
149-136

Weird start time so variance gets a bump, neutral court so another bump, both teams coming off blistering 3-pt shooting on their home floor.....crazy stuff is all on the table. Will it be a layup line or will defenses pick up? Hard pass preflop.
2pm start in Vegas!!
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,730
Boom. First quarter under hits comfortably
Took small U257 and live U251.5 from Buffalo Wild Wings in Parsippany, NJ lol

All the variables of a day game plus neutral court (essentially two road teams) so hey let's bet it up to the highest Total in NBA history or whatever. If I lose I will simply bow and say nice handicap of that O257
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Played some Pelicans +2 here. Having CJ back bumps them to the top half of the WC playoff teams. They are really good when fully healthy.
 

Red Averages

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Another under cashed fairly easily (thanks so the Pelicans inability to score… Lakers had 110 thru 3!)
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Another under cashed fairly easily (thanks so the Pelicans inability to score… Lakers had 110 thru 3!)
Yeah I'm a jerk. I expected tons of pace and points even in that neutral setting. This is what neutral courts are known for in college.....a greater than normal chance of one team not taking well to the new shooting backgrounds similar to a road team. Except now you have two road teams. Night of regret bc I wanted to play the Pats too.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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If you see this right away consider some Sixers in-game early 3Q. Hawks are struggling running their halfcourt stuff without Trae tonight after Sixers stopped treating game like the 1H track meet. Hawks TT Unders should be good too. I got 2.5 and U122.5 a few min ago they are gone but what's there is still good.
 

Mloaf71

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Jul 13, 2005
644
If you see this right away consider some Sixers in-game early 3Q. Hawks are struggling running their halfcourt stuff without Trae tonight after Sixers stopped treating game like the 1H track meet. Hawks TT Unders should be good too. I got 2.5 and U122.5 a few min ago they are gone but what's there is still good.
In with you at TT U121.5.

what do you think about the pace in C’s game? Do you think they keep up this scoring?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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In with you at TT U121.5.

what do you think about the pace in C’s game? Do you think they keep up this scoring?
I'm at the bar at a Carrabbas in Philly and the only game I'm watching is the Sixers. I took more at -3.5....everything is coming easy for them and difficult for Atlanta. I think this gets even more magnified in the 4Q.
 

Mloaf71

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Jul 13, 2005
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That was awesome. Hit the TTU and -5.5.

thanks for sharing.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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That was awesome. Hit the TTU and -5.5.

thanks for sharing.
Played Sacramento 2H -4.5 (full game +4.5). They are shooting horrifically, Phoenix is shooting lights out.....and it's a 3-possession game. No Durant, still no Beal. Kings should bounce back here in the 2H.
 

Mloaf71

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Jul 13, 2005
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Played Sacramento 2H -4.5 (full game +4.5). They are shooting horrifically, Phoenix is shooting lights out.....and it's a 3-possession game. No Durant, still no Beal. Kings should bounce back here in the 2H.
I missed this but nice start of the half for you!
 

Red Averages

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Apr 20, 2003
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I’m on under 243.5 and under 4th quarter 60.5. GL all!

Also Det +7 on Monday at home vs Indy seems like a good play. Might have some moneyline as well. Especially if they win tonight.
 

zak1013

Member
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Jul 14, 2005
254
I’m on under 243.5 and under 4th quarter 60.5. GL all!

Also Det +7 on Monday at home vs Indy seems like a good play. Might have some moneyline as well. Especially if they win tonight.
In for the 4Q under at 61.5. Let’s go!
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
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Jan 15, 2004
30,730
I’m on under 243.5 and under 4th quarter 60.5. GL all!

Also Det +7 on Monday at home vs Indy seems like a good play. Might have some moneyline as well. Especially if they win tonight.
Looking to fade some "Final Four" teams in their first game back this week.

Someone msg me about last nights 2 live plays. I think they expected some elaborate process but here was the reality. I had one relatively small preflop play on OKC with no intention of being involved as I had other plans on a road trip. I literally sat down at the bar to eat, glanced up at the Sixers game on the tv, saw the score and watched how the first 3-4 possessions played out, and couldn't grab my phone fast enough. Second game, get back to my hotel, see Suns are up 9 at the half which mildly surprised me as I almost played Sacramento here, pull up the box score to see that this should be a 20-pt game but Kings only down 9 and begin clicking.

Sometimes it just comes to ya when you aren't expecting it.
 

Mloaf71

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Jul 13, 2005
644
I’m on under 243.5 and under 4th quarter 60.5. GL all!

Also Det +7 on Monday at home vs Indy seems like a good play. Might have some moneyline as well. Especially if they win tonight.
That 0.5 for 60.5 was huge :)
 

Mloaf71

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Jul 13, 2005
644
That missed free throw and calm last two minutes was nice. Felt like we deserved it after a 47 point 3rd quarter!
Absolutely. At the end of the third I bought in for some Pacers U30.5 too so that end was doubly nice.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
30,730
Bad shooting on a neutral court with playoff-like defense.....who woulda thunk it? Glad everyone is making money.

Pacers probably spend night in Vegas which is unusual for a normal road game, then go directly to Detroit tomorrow for Tuesdays game vs the Pistons. There may not be a better letdown spot and they will be laying 6-7 to boot.

Lakers will certainly be partying in Vegas tonight, get a night in their own bed, only to face the Mavericks on Tuesday. Then off to San Antonio for 2 games there.

There will be plenty of fading going on this week! Like unload type fades.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
30,730
Tomorrow has some serious first slate after All-Star break vibes to it. Good time for some of these teams who have been having a rough go of it to regroup and catch someone napping. Yes, I'm looking at you Detroit, San Antonio and Washington tomorrow.

The Pistons spot is the autobet as we haven't seen a more challenging travel schedule than what the Pacers are facing since the first CBA was agreed upon. I mentioned it upthread if you haven't read it.

Ok storytime. As you know, much of my capping is based upon variables which I use to adjust my numbers. I've learned from some of the best in the sports betting space and I've learned from those in the game of basketball and not necessarily betting. This one occurred by accident from my old college coach at Guilford College (RIP Coach Jensen). We have a 2pm Saturday game against a school from VA traveling 4 hours by bus. At 1:30 we find out that there bus is broken down on the side of I-95 (apparently they had no way to contact anyone at the school as offices were closed on a Sat so finally they contacted Greensboro police who informed us and connected us to them...but I digress) and we agreed to delay the start of the game for them. At around 2:30 we find out they will arrive by 4 and the game is rescheduled for 4:30. We are all just hanging out in the beautiful Ragan-Brown Fieldhouse when Coach sits down to chat when he shares his wisdom in volatility that sticks with me to this day....

(I'll paraphrase) "This is going to be interesting. We're playing a team that has been sitting in a bus on the highway for 7 hours. I've seen stuff like this before and I probably shouldn't be telling you this but we are either going to win by 40 or they are going to beat us by 40....and if they beat us by 40 they will probably lose their next game by 40." Essentially he was saying that a travel spot was SO challenging that it actually brings a team together to overperform on that day only to exhale the following game. Well, after hanging around our gym all day we proceeded to play our worst game of the year (and we weren't great anyway) and lost by 30 in a game that was fairly evey matched. The school that beat us had a home game two days later....they lost something like 118-68.

My point? While I make a normal sized play on the Pistons +7 tomorrow instead of unloading both barrels.....if they don't miss a beat they have three more road games during the week at Milwaukee, Washington and Minnesota....and I'll be looking for their exhale game in that group. Good spot for winning margin bets against them in these spots too.

So the 4 dogs I've already played tomorrow are:

Pistons +7
Wizards +11.5
Bulls +11 (love me some Bucks fade)
Spurs +8

I generally don't play this much volume preflop but I have cases for each here.
 
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Brand Name

make hers mark
Moderator
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Oct 6, 2010
4,450
Moving the Line
The above is the kind of post as to why I love this place. Really do. Just fantastic all the way around.

For content, I'm looking for an over in Indiana/Detroit too, simply because players at this portion of the season when forced to choose offense or defense effort, if they have to pick one, will pick offense. Consider that's the Pacers on top of it all? Doubly the reason for that. I'm seeing this at 247.5 but I think this genuinely will close higher than this.

In contrast, under for Dallas/Memphis, seeing 227.5 specifically at MGM for a wagerable total, willing to take this to 225.5. Nice.
 

Mloaf71

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
644
Tomorrow has some serious first slate after All-Star break vibes to it. Good time for some of these teams who have been having a rough go of it to regroup and catch someone napping. Yes, I'm looking at you Detroit, San Antonio and Washington tomorrow.

The Pistons spot is the autobet as we haven't seen a more challenging travel schedule than what the Pacers are facing since the first CBA was agreed upon. I mentioned it upthread if you haven't read it.

Ok storytime. As you know, much of my capping is based upon variables which I use to adjust my numbers. I've learned from some of the best in the sports betting space and I've learned from those in the game of basketball and not necessarily betting. This one occurred by accident from my old college coach at Guilford College (RIP Coach Jensen). We have a 2pm Saturday game against a school from VA traveling 4 hours by bus. At 1:30 we find out that there bus is broken down on the side of I-95 (apparently they had no way to contact anyone at the school as offices were closed on a Sat so finally they contacted Greensboro police who informed us and connected us to them...but I digress) and we agreed to delay the start of the game for them. At around 2:30 we find out they will arrive by 4 and the game is rescheduled for 4:30. We are all just hanging out in the beautiful Ragan-Brown Fieldhouse when Coach sits down to chat when he shares his wisdom in volatility that sticks with me to this day....

(I'll paraphrase) "This is going to be interesting. We're playing a team that has been sitting in a bus on the highway for 7 hours. I've seen stuff like this before and I probably shouldn't be telling you this but we are either going to win by 40 or they are going to beat us by 40....and if they beat us by 40 they will probably lose their next game by 40." Essentially he was saying that a travel spot was SO challenging that it actually brings a team together to overperform on that day only to exhale the following game. Well, after hanging around our gym all day we proceeded to play our worst game of the year (and we weren't great anyway) and lost by 30 in a game that was fairly evey matched. The school that beat us had a home game two days later....they lost something like 118-68.

My point? While I make a normal sized play on the Pistons +7 tomorrow instead of unloading both barrels.....if they don't miss a beat they have three more road games during the week at Milwaukee, Washington and Minnesota....and I'll be looking for their exhale game in that group. Good spot for winning margin bets against them in these spots too.

So the 4 dogs I've already played tomorrow are:

Pistons +7
Wizards +11.5
Bulls +11 (love me some Bucks fade)
Spurs +8

I generally don't play this much volume preflop but I have cases for each here.
I follow the Bucks and Pacers fades. What's your read on the Rockets and 76ers?
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
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Jan 15, 2004
30,730
I follow the Bucks and Pacers fades. What's your read on the Rockets and 76ers?
Sixers/Wiz - 3rd meeting early on, familiarity breeds contempt division game that nobody on the Sixers have circled after winning first two on Embiid's 98 pts (29 in one quarter). Sixers have been going through motions playing to opponents level recently yet haven't received a wake up call. Next 4 are against Wiz, Pistons, Pistons and Hornets so I expect them to perform below market as a whole during stretch. I got 12.5 but Wiz took overnight action before I could post, wouldn't take any lower than 11.5

Rockets/Spurs - Despite the loss streak Pop has this group competing hard every game. They have a little Belichick/Pats vibe to them right now and I don't have them rated nearly as down as the market. Houston has only won two games by margin over the last month and both came in motivated spots, off a 3-game losing streak and hosting Jokic back when Nuggets were banged up, playing poorly and on their 5th game of the week. I expect this to be competitive late.
 

zak1013

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
254
Question

what online sites are best for NBA prop bets like MVP, All-Star, 6th Man, ROTY, etc?
Setting aside the offshores, it’s state dependent. Only certain states allow betting on futures that are vote-driven rather than purely based on the sports event itself. Eg I am in NY where it’s not permitted, although I think it is legal in NJ.
 

Mloaf71

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
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Jul 13, 2005
644
Good read on the Pacers game. Thompson just had no chance against Turner all night.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
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Nov 2, 2007
20,613
Santa Monica
Setting aside the offshores, it’s state dependent. Only certain states allow betting on futures that are vote-driven rather than purely based on the sports event itself. Eg I am in NY where it’s not permitted, although I think it is legal in NJ.
Thank you for the color
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
9,242
Thank you for the color
There is usually a wide difference in pricing. For example late last year when HRB was pounding the table for Brogdon for 6th man you had Wynn at +450, another at +400 whereas the tightest was closer to +150/+200. Some of the books have fairly tight limits on these too, just depends. Like I was limited to $800 on Brogdon on two books, but was able to put down 3k on Christian Gonzalez for defensive ROY days before his season ending injury for the Pats…

so shop around, it totally depends, but you may have to hit multiple if you want to get a bigger ticket down.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
30,730
Losing the Pistons coin flip and the Spurs beat turned what was looking like a good night into a negative one. Wiz decided early and Bulls looked good most of game was a wash. Pistons TT, a stray +8.5 live, Cade over props cashing by half a point on each....actually made for a weird end game. Like glad Cade got the assist on Bogs final hoop but why are they not taking a 3 there? Weird night all around and the Clips/Blazers literally put me to sleep on the couch until 6:30am.

Played Dallas +1.5/+2 hosting the Lakers. The loss of Kyrie is being offset by some excellent play by Exum but this spot, like Pacers yesterday, is a pure Laker fade. If any of your books post an early Laker/Spurs number during day today let me know....this has smash spot potential between Lakers winning tonight and rest days being possible.

The other 4 games are staggered pretty good for live betting. I'll try and post if something good is shaping up.

Edit: And Yes! If you're looking to play NBA Futures (or any future for that matter) you should be shopping every book that you have access to even if you don't yet have an account there.