I really, really like the Knicks to cover as well, from both a bottom-up (model) and top-down (source of truth) perspective. Flat out win wouldn't shock me at all.
As for like digestible rationale and in coach-speak, I'm not at all sold on Milwuakee's defensive cohesiveness and really definitional roles--who does what? They have a ton of questions internally that I'm not even sure Griffin knows yet, and that's not just because of their start, though that plays a role too. The fact of it is, Middleton isn't what he was but also when you bring in someone new like Lillard to play major minutes who is a defensive liability, but you have to find out what he's capable of in this short of a turnaround? Reeks of an issue. This is especially true when points are realistically at a premium, so each possession scored (and thus allowed) matters more towards the end score. It's kind of like how in football the metric of game efficiency isn't points total, it's the rate of points/drive, or possession is more an applicable denominator since this is basketball.
For them to draw the Knicks, who I think are the most defined in such a role of the remaining eight, is a terrible matchup, especially considering this is very much expected to be a playoff-style total and pace. It's unders city time too. Ride it, get in early.
Hey folks, a question for you. I'm still very much a novice at the finer points of this, so... cc
@HomeRunBaker @Brand Name
Tonight, I had hit on 3/4 legs of a parlay, the 4th being Jimmy Butler u27.5. He had 8 points at the half and the other three were already locked in. Is it a good idea to (sorta) hedge here? His halftime o/u was like 21.5, should have I considered trying to bet that over in the hopes that he perks up and maybe I get my money back? A loss is just 2 units, but a win there means I basically break even and I could even middle it.
Also, I hit two of my five parlays tonight, so I'm up to +58.95. If it's not weird to spam this thread, I'll link my posts there.
And I'm gonna keep trailing some of the sharper people in the Reddits. There's some people who clearly have a good fuckin idea of what they're doing. If I find anything, I'll post it.
HRB said this really well, as always. I have a little bit to add here.
So the real questions that HRB didn't hit on are these axioms that I'd use internally in an at-large way as someone who doesn't play parlays, but it's similar logic in part to how I handle long futures:
1) Do you need the money? Like, yes, don't think of it as money, but if you're dead desperate, you shouldn't have placed it anyway. Cash out. This is 99.9% not going to be the case but it's something I'd say applies to genuinely destitute, bankrupt, and addict amblers. Need is not a loose term here, it's like this is money that could've gone towards critical bills or lifesaving stuff. If it means you have to wait a few days for beer, that is not a need.
2) Let's say you don't need the money, what are you being offered? Calculate the value of the legs that have hit plus the additional payment for the in-play progress relative to the potential end payout. From there, you can determine and calculate effectively what they're offering you for that final leg. If you show me an example with what the cash out is, I can solve it for you and show how it's done, step by step. This goes to the last point...
3) What are your own odds of the event happening at that exact moment? If it's less probable than the relative cashout is based on the calculation from 2, you cash out. If it's considerably more probable than the odds implied, and it often is since cashouts often are poor value, you play on. My personal belief is that a lot of in-game live price discovery is beatable, so you'll have to think fast here. This can be your own metrics, what you're seeing on field (game pace and flow are massive!), etc.
4) Hedging is if #3 winds up being pretty close and you'd be okay with whatever goes down thereafter. I personally don't like doing this on my own because each bet I place has net positive expected value at the time of bet. That's why I place it, which should be universally held of a thought. Even if someone knows nothing, that should be the thought process: My return's implied probability exceeds that of the book's probability. That is to say, by example: I have this event at 55% to happen, the book sees it at 50%.
4a) If the market moves against me, I understand taking a contrary, buyout position pre-game (and it better be hella +EV at the new point, Martingaling is a long term loser) since you minimize your losses. That said, almost never do the contrary Martingale, this one is a super rare exception, not even close to the rule. The line moves against you, you've probably majorly missed the boat in when to maximize, barring really fresh news like additional injuries. If you play this move even once a year, that's almost assuredly far too much. I included this to be comprehensive more than anything else. Not to suggest it remotely regularly.
Also, don't trust the people on Reddit. Not to say there can't be sharps in there but there are a few reasons.
A) Reddit as a system is flawed for observing this. Anyone can go on a heater and make an account just for that. Once it fizzles, inevitably that account closes and a new one opens up. Rinse and repeat. It can work for some like Berryhorse (oh HRB knows what I think of him lately...) in the long term but it's not great that of a site to source given Reddit's magnitude and size I can think of one public, prominent example.
B) The fact of most sharp behavior, and it's why I don't post my stuff as much, is that if you win at a profitable, long-term rate, you don't want it out in the open too too much. I gladly make a SoSH exception since I value this place so much. However: If your edges are out in the open, more people see them, means less a chance for you to get in on them. That edge could go away just as fast, if not faster if some out catches up with you OR someone also finds said edge, beating you to the punch. There's not much upside to doing this.
We need to have a talk about parlays and hold, and the best ways to make that work, for both you and OCD. If my migraine goes away I might do it here later tonight post-game. I'm always cool with you linking the stuff here though!