Guilty. I will do better!Not only that ... but posters have stopped breaking long posts into paragraphs!!!
Guilty. I will do better!Not only that ... but posters have stopped breaking long posts into paragraphs!!!
End of the day, I don’t care about perception. I care about the players being added to the team. And, as of right now, there is a ton of work to be done for this team to be able to compete for a title. This team needs an influx of top talent. I hope Yamamoto is the start of that. If he isn’t, they had better figure something else out. While they may not lack commitment, they have been lacking results. But it just takes one FA signing to change this narrative.This entire thread has become insane. Soto is traded to the Yankees and there are rumors that YY may choose the Yankees, Mets, or some other club, and suddenly we’re again losing our fucking minds. Now we’re interpreting a YY signing elsewhere as the Red Sox no longer have a winning culture and can’t attract big time free agents. The Red Sox spent the last four seasons intentionally not signing elite free agents as part of a rebuild that everyone on this board is familiar with. The lone exception was Story, who they were able to get on a good deal. When you’re intentionally not signing top free agents, the interesting side effect is that you wind up not signing top free agents. What does that tell us about Boston as a destination for top free agents once the Sox decide to get back in that business? Nothing. If YY goes elsewhere and the Sox go full bore after Montgomery and/or Snell and come up empty handed, then let’s have this discussion. Right now we’re just whining because the guy that everyone has decided is the top target (but who has never pitched in the majors) is rumored to be going elsewhere.
Gotta draw the line somewhere.Oh, so all you have to do is win a lot of games, but not a championship, in one year to demonstrate a winning culture? The Sox went to the ALCS in 2021. You just told us that was ancient history. Apparently a good run and no championship two years ago counts as a winning culture, but not three years ago.
Here's the issue. There's no #1 that is clearly going to be available next year in free agency, unless the Braves just don't extend Fried. There's no point in the near future that it looks like the Sox could get a top of the rotation starter. No one on the current team fits that, including Bello, including the farm system. This is the only chance you realistically have for this unless you want to pay through the roof in prospects, so yea, it's real disappointing that they're not really being linked, and if they don't sign him, it says to me that ownership doesn't see 2024 as being a year they're really competing.This entire thread has become insane. Soto is traded to the Yankees and there are rumors that YY may choose the Yankees, Mets, or some other club, and suddenly we’re again losing our fucking minds. Now we’re interpreting a YY signing elsewhere as the Red Sox no longer have a winning culture and can’t attract big time free agents. The Red Sox spent the last four seasons intentionally not signing elite free agents as part of a rebuild that everyone on this board is familiar with. The lone exception was Story, who they were able to get on a good deal. When you’re intentionally not signing top free agents, the interesting side effect is that you wind up not signing top free agents. What does that tell us about Boston as a destination for top free agents once the Sox decide to get back in that business? Nothing. If YY goes elsewhere and the Sox go full bore after Montgomery and/or Snell and come up empty handed, then let’s have this discussion. Right now we’re just whining because the guy that everyone has decided is the top target (but who has never pitched in the majors) is rumored to be going elsewhere.
If this is Wheeler in decline, sign me the hell up.Wheeler is old and has had declining numbers, Fried will certainly be extended
Problem is Ohtani is undergoing his second TJ and there is no guarantee he even comes back and pitches like his old self. So i was fine not paying what the dodgers did especially since he is not even going to pitching this yearHere's the issue. There's no #1 that is clearly going to be available next year in free agency, unless the Braves just don't extend Fried. There's no point in the near future that it looks like the Sox could get a top of the rotation starter. No one on the current team fits that, including Bello, including the farm system. This is the only chance you realistically have for this unless you want to pay through the roof in prospects, so yea, it's real disappointing that they're not really being linked, and if they don't sign him, it says to me that ownership doesn't see 2024 as being a year they're really competing.
There has to be a line between not wanting the team to spend 700 on Ohtani and think they should absolutely be in on other marquee free agents. And next year's other free agents don't really look amazing either. If they want a pitcher for the long term, the time to get him is now.
MLB.com lists the following as 2024 free agents:
View attachment 74959
Burnes is a different topic, but Wheeler is old and has had declining numbers, Fried will certainly be extended, Scherzer is like 100, Woodruff hasn't proven he can stay healthy, Bieber the same, and the Dodgers aren't letting Walker walk.
One of my criticisms for the Bloom era was that the team never seemed to have a plan. I'll withhold judgment on Breslow, but at some point it would be nice to see a plan beyond trading 4th outfielders.
edit: 2025 doesn't look better:
View attachment 74960
Either you deal with overpaying a bit now, or be okay with having a rotation that lacks an ace for the foreseeable future.
Why can't Bello become a top of the rotation starter?Here's the issue. There's no #1 that is clearly going to be available next year in free agency, unless the Braves just don't extend Fried. There's no point in the near future that it looks like the Sox could get a top of the rotation starter. No one on the current team fits that, including Bello, including the farm system. This is the only chance you realistically have for this unless you want to pay through the roof in prospects, so yea, it's real disappointing that they're not really being linked, and if they don't sign him, it says to me that ownership doesn't see 2024 as being a year they're really competing.
There has to be a line between not wanting the team to spend 700 on Ohtani and think they should absolutely be in on other marquee free agents. And next year's other free agents don't really look amazing either. If they want a pitcher for the long term, the time to get him is now.
MLB.com lists the following as 2024 free agents:
View attachment 74959
Burnes is a different topic, but Wheeler is old and has had declining numbers, Fried will certainly be extended, Scherzer is like 100, Woodruff hasn't proven he can stay healthy, Bieber the same, and the Dodgers aren't letting Walker walk.
One of my criticisms for the Bloom era was that the team never seemed to have a plan. I'll withhold judgment on Breslow, but at some point it would be nice to see a plan beyond trading 4th outfielders.
edit: 2025 doesn't look better:
View attachment 74960
Either you deal with overpaying a bit now, or be okay with having a rotation that lacks an ace for the foreseeable future.
By actually looking at what they won. There’s a huge difference between results and all the other crap that aren’t results.People care about now. How could someone meet with Steve Cohen and then John Henry and come to any conclusion other than Cohen is more committed to winning?
He already is one. Now, whether that is a good thing or not is up for discussionWhy can't Bello become a top of the rotation starter?
Under the rules of baseball, a player can sign with only one team at a time. Given that, every team that wants to sign Yamamoto except for one will be unsuccessful. Will the ownership of all of those teams not be committed to competing in 2024? Or will they simply not have been chosen by Yamamoto? This is not EBay. There is no “buy it now price” that the Red Sox can bid and automatically win the auction., it says to me that ownership doesn't see 2024 as being a year they're really competing.
Why should anyone believe he will? I don't think he strikes out enough guys, and puts the ball in play too often. How many guys are there in the league that are top of the rotation guys strike out as few guys as he does, and give up as many hard hits as he does?Why can't Bello become a top of the rotation starter?
Alright, but that doesn't negate that he's going to be 35 at that point. Great pitcher. But even if he leaves Philly he's hardly a long term solution.If this is Wheeler in decline, sign me the hell up.View attachment 74961
I don't think a Fried extension is anywhere close to a sure thing either. It's known that they pursued one last winter and couldn't come to terms, and that's from a club with a seemingly magic touch when it comes to extending all their other players.
Because he's a product of Boston's minir league system, and it can't ever produce pitchers! (Except when it does.)Why can't Bello become a top of the rotation starter?
How does it help when his wife moves to study dermatology at Vanderbilt?Jordan Montgomery makes too much sense not to happen. Happy wife, happy life!
Because after twelve years in the league, he’s never made the jump and now is well into his decline years?Why can't Bello become a top of the rotation starter?
Do you think the latter isn't possible in this stage of his career with a very pitching centric philosophy by the new CBO and Co?Why should anyone believe he will? I don't think he strikes out enough guys, and puts the ball in play too often. How many guys are there in the league that are top of the rotation guys strike out as few guys as he does, and give up as many hard hits as he does?
Unless he figures out how to get more swings and less contact - I don't see why people would think he can make this jump.
I think it's silly to think that he'll become a top of the rotation starter until there's a reason to believe he'll be a top of the rotation starter, and the team should plan on him being the guy he's been until he proves otherwise. The guy that he's been is a #3 or maybe a 2.Do you think the latter isn't possible in this stage of his career with a very pitching centric philosophy by the new CBO and Co?
Another possibility is that it’s silly not to expect improvement from 24-year old pitchers who’ve been in the league for a year and a half or so and are already number three starters, or maybe number two starters.I think it's silly to think that he'll become a top of the rotation starter until there's a reason to believe he'll be a top of the rotation starter, and the team should plan on him being the guy he's been until he proves otherwise. The guy that he's been is a #3 or maybe a 2.
YMMV but many people consider the top two slots in the rotation to be the top of the rotation. You're saying that he's MAYBE a 2. FWIW, I don't think he's there yet and I don't necessarily THINK that he'll become that. I think he's shown a good deal of promise in a young career and at this stage of his career I think that there is a POSSIBILITY that he can improve and become the pitcher that many of us hope that he can be.I think it's silly to think that he'll become a top of the rotation starter until there's a reason to believe he'll be a top of the rotation starter, and the team should plan on him being the guy he's been until he proves otherwise. The guy that he's been is a #3 or maybe a 2.
Maybe she doesn't like him much?????How does it help when his wife moves to study dermatology at Vanderbilt?
View: https://twitter.com/jonheyman/status/1734004599491530880?s=46Heyman reports Sox not part of favourites for Yamamoto and Bradford reports that Snell is on the the Sox’s radar. Maybe it’s copium but is this Yamamoto’s agent saying we need to up our offer and our FO saying we have other options?
IOW heyman is just pulling shit out of thin air.This is not to say he’s signing with one of these three teams for sure. Those are just the perceived favorites. Also linked: Red Sox, Cardinals, Cubs, Phillies, Giants, Angels, Tigers, Diamondbacks (although things have gotten a bit rich for a couple of those teams)
woosox have a chance though!I'm going to go out on a limb and say he's not signing with Detroit.
Yeah he was on Twitter for a half hour. It was said that x, y and z are the favorites. Cool.View: https://twitter.com/jonheyman/status/1734004599491530880?s=46
IOW heyman is just pulling shit out of thin air.
He has no sources here
Appreciate the effort on this post, but, I think this is a flawed approach. Firstly, your argument doesn't benefit from your tossing aside meaningful options like that, it makes it look like you came to the analysis with the conclusion in mind because most of those guys are pretty decent options. Beiber has pitched 200 innings in half of his non-covid complete seasons. Buehler is low key 30 and the Dodgers just took on the only contract that might actually slow their spending. Fried may be extended but some players just want to test the market (see Soto, Juan). Burnes is a good option despite you labeling him "a different topic," and while some of these guys are old, maybe you can just give them a short deal and wait for a better pitching market to make your huge investment-- Wheeler at 3/100 might be kind of a good fit for this team were he available this offseason. And I'm not hearing Roki Sasaki's name in any of this, who some people will tell you could be as good as Yamamoto and our spies in the east are saying is likely to be posted next year. And it's not clear you have to buy a Bona Fide Ace-- players obviously improve and surprise sometimes, and had the Sox simply gone to, say, 3/50 with Elfin last season (hell, call it 3/60,) the rotation would look a lot different.Burnes is a different topic, but Wheeler is old and has had declining numbers, Fried will certainly be extended, Scherzer is like 100, Woodruff hasn't proven he can stay healthy, Bieber the same, and the Dodgers aren't letting Walker walk.
I disagree with the flawed approach conclusion. The Red Sox are playing an odds game. There are a million ways to finding pitching, some easier than others. They don’t “have” to do anything but putting together a top rotation through trade and undervalued pitching FAs is just really hard to do. It’s why most teams struggle in that regard. The Sox don’t have much on the farm in this department and, based on the team’s recent history, I’m not overly optimistic the next top-of-the-rotation guy is coming from within. I’ll echo the concerns about Bello’s swing and miss stuff but I think he has 2/3 in a good rotation upside.Appreciate the effort on this post, but, I think this is a flawed approach. Firstly, your argument doesn't benefit from your tossing aside meaningful options like that, it makes it look like you came to the analysis with the conclusion in mind because most of those guys are pretty decent options. Beiber has pitched 200 innings in half of his non-covid complete seasons. Buehler is low key 30 and the Dodgers just took on the only contract that might actually slow their spending. Fried may be extended but some players just want to test the market (see Soto, Juan). Burnes is a good option despite you labeling him "a different topic," and while some of these guys are old, maybe you can just give them a short deal and wait for a better pitching market to make your huge investment-- Wheeler at 3/100 might be kind of a good fit for this team were he available this offseason. And I'm not hearing Roki Sasaki's name in any of this, who some people will tell you could be as good as Yamamoto and our spies in the east are saying is likely to be posted next year. And it's not clear you have to buy a Bona Fide Ace-- players obviously improve and surprise sometimes, and had the Sox simply gone to, say, 3/50 with Elfin last season (hell, call it 3/60,) the rotation would look a lot different.
Plus, the whole point of bringing in Breslow is to help get more value from pitchers that aren't obvious acquisition candidate-- even I can write Yamamoto a $400m check of someone else's money, that's the easy part. Of course we'd all prefer they bring in someone they/we can rely on, but, if Breslow can identify and acquire this year's, say, Mitch Keller, or Dane Dunning, and bring them in before the breakout/turnaround, well, you don't need to pay nine figures for that kind of guy usually.
And the trade market can be surprising, even for stud/ace level players. I don't recall hearing Sale was a likely addition until he was suddenly here and despite the "high price" of prospects there, that was a great trade in the end (the extension, less so...) My point is: it's tempting to squint ahead into the market but a *lot* can change in a year. They should sign Yamamoto because they think he's *worth* 300m (or whatever it ends up being,) not because it's unclear if they'll have a chance to pay someone else 300m again next offseason. (And, again, Roki Sasaki.)
So I appreciate you throwing the names out there and I agree it's not really a banner class from this vantage point in 24 or 25... but I disagree that because of that, the Sox have to spend now. That's a panic mentality, IMO.
To be clear, I'd love to add Yamamoto and AFAIC it can be a blank check, at some point, 30/32/35m a year forever is all basically the same. But I'd love to add him because I think he's the real deal, not because next season's class, a year out, looks a little spotty. A lot will change between now and then, and I sincerely believe there will be other options, by trade, by luck, by development, or by signing someone not currently viewed in the same class as Yamamoto. I'm not saying they should pass and they don't need him: I'm saying don't sign a guy because you're not impressed with the options you currently see in the future, that's bad process.I disagree with the flawed approach conclusion. The Red Sox are playing an odds game. There are a million ways to finding pitching, some easier than others. They don’t “have” to do anything but putting together a top rotation through trade and undervalued pitching FAs is just really hard to do. It’s why most teams struggle in that regard. The Sox don’t have much on the farm in this department and, based on the team’s recent history, I’m not overly optimistic the next top-of-the-rotation guy is coming from within. I’ll echo the concerns about Bello’s swing and miss stuff but I think he has 2/3 in a good rotation upside.
I certainly hope that Breslow is able to pull a rabbit out of a hat (actually, we need 2 rabbits) but I think this rotation needs a bonafide stabilizing force in the rotation. Yamamoto should qualify as one although he is admittedly unproven. Montgomery wouldn’t be a sexy signing but he’d instantly be our best starter. Likewise for Snell although I don’t really trust him. At some point, the Sox will need to commit serious money/prospects towards an upgrade. Breslow won’t be pressured into doing something but I certainly hope he’s bold enough to strike when the opportunity arises. I think he is but we’ll see. It’s hard to get a true lay of the land without knowing which guys under control are actually available and what the corresponding price would be.
This is actually my favorite of the proposed Seattle trades so far - it fills a need for everyone. They’ve been making terrible decisions lately, though, so this would be a bit out of character for them.I do think the path with Seattle is bailing them out of the Robbie Ray deal, but what about taking Ty France off their hands? They reportedly want to trade for Josh Naylor.
France would give us pretty much exactly what Justin Turner did last year, but with less age-related risk. Steamer projects him for a .335 wOBA in 2024; Turner at .326. He had a down year in 2023 (and wrist injuries). He's not my definition of exciting, but he was well above average before 2023 (128 wRC+ from 2020-22) and is only 29. He’s due $7.2M in his arb2 year and a free agent after 2025. I don’t know the extent of Seattle's (supposed) financial issues, but maybe they think that’s a lot for a DH / poor-fielding 1B.
I tried to shoehorn this idea into a 3-team deal with Ray. Seems complicated. Maybe it’d look something like this?
Boston gets: Bryan Woo, Ty France, Robbie Ray, some cash from Seattle toward Ray's deal
Cleveland gets: Ceddanne Rafaela
Seattle gets: Josh Naylor
Rafaela would supplant Myles Straw, who looks like a mistake out there, and trading Naylor would make way for Kyle Manzardo at 1B. Seattle would clear roughly $20-24 million AAV in salary that they could use toward a Snell deal if they like (France and Naylor are a $ wash). The Sox would get a rough approximation of Justin Turner's bat and defensive versatility at 1B/2B at essentially 2/$17M, take on Ray's 3/$73M, and for their trouble get a young mid-rotation starter in Bryan Woo, who was rushed to the majors and needs some work on his secondaries. (BTV says the Sox get the worst of that deal, FWIW).
Yes, that’s fair but there is always going to be someone but there are, what, 30 teams? Having to rely on market inefficiencies is not an easy way to live as a GM. But I generally agree with your approach. I don’t want Snell even if he’s the “best” available option after Yamamoto. I’d take Montgomery if the money isn’t unreasonable. The real problem, as we all know, is that the farm isn’t churning out the arms it needs to. Hopefully, that changes because none of this is sustainable without that.To be clear, I'd love to add Yamamoto and AFAIC it can be a blank check, at some point, 30/32/35m a year forever is all basically the same. But I'd love to add him because I think he's the real deal, not because next season's class, a year out, looks a little spotty. A lot will change between now and then, and I sincerely believe there will be other options, by trade, by luck, by development, or by signing someone not currently viewed in the same class as Yamamoto. I'm not saying they should pass and they don't need him: I'm saying don't sign a guy because you're not impressed with the options you currently see in the future, that's bad process.
The Sox have said repeatedly this offseason that they want to acquire two starting pitchers. So the good news is that you and Craig Breslow appear to be solidly on the same page. That should make you happy.I disagree with the flawed approach conclusion. The Red Sox are playing an odds game. There are a million ways to finding pitching, some easier than others. They don’t “have” to do anything but putting together a top rotation through trade and undervalued pitching FAs is just really hard to do. It’s why most teams struggle in that regard. The Sox don’t have much on the farm in this department and, based on the team’s recent history, I’m not overly optimistic the next top-of-the-rotation guy is coming from within. I’ll echo the concerns about Bello’s swing and miss stuff but I think he has 2/3 in a good rotation upside.
I certainly hope that Breslow is able to pull a rabbit out of a hat (actually, we need 2 rabbits) but I think this rotation needs a bonafide stabilizing force in the rotation. Yamamoto should qualify as one although he is admittedly unproven. Montgomery wouldn’t be a sexy signing but he’d instantly be our best starter. Likewise for Snell although I don’t really trust him. At some point, the Sox will need to commit serious money/prospects towards an upgrade. Breslow won’t be pressured into doing something but I certainly hope he’s bold enough to strike when the opportunity arises. I think he is but we’ll see. It’s hard to get a true lay of the land without knowing which guys under control are actually available and what the corresponding price would be.
Thank you for this substantive and valuable post.The Sox have said repeatedly this offseason that they want to acquire two starting pitchers. So the good news is that you and Craig Breslow appear to be solidly on the same page. That should make you happy.
My guess is he signs by the end of the week.So, now that the Ohtani domino has fallen - how long until Yamamoto signs and the next tier of pitchers un jams? It seems like everyone was holding their breath to see where Shohei and YY go before spending elsewhere.
Last point before I let it go because we don't disagree: I'm not saying it's gotta be a market inefficiency, I'm saying that we don't reliably know what the options will be this time next year. Maybe Chris Sale will pitch 200 innings, maybe Kutter Crawford will take another leap, maybe Spencer Strider has an affair with someone's mom and has to be traded for pennies on the dollar, maybe Cole surprisingly opts out, maybe someone we currently think of as an also-ran will break out in a contract year and be a viable option. I'll see myself out.Yes, that’s fair but there is always going to be someone but there are, what, 30 teams? Having to rely on market inefficiencies is not an easy way to live as a GM. But I generally agree with your approach. I don’t want Snell even if he’s the “best” available option after Yamamoto. I’d take Montgomery if the money isn’t unreasonable. The real problem, as we all know, is that the farm isn’t churning out the arms it needs to. Hopefully, that changes because none of this is sustainable without that.
So, now that the Ohtani domino has fallen - how long until Yamamoto signs and the next tier of pitchers un jams? It seems like everyone was holding their breath to see where Shohei and YY go before spending elsewhere.
FWIW, his posting period doesn't end until January 4th. I wouldn't be too surprised if it's going to be a little while still.My guess is he signs by the end of the week.
It will be interesting to see whether or not the other top of the market free agent pitchers wait around if Yamamoto does drag the process out until his deadline. Makes total sense right now for guys like Montgomery and Snell to wait for Yamamoto to set the market. Are they willing to wait until January though?FWIW, his posting period doesn't end until January 4th. I wouldn't be too surprised if it's going to be a little while still.
There is a risk though. If teams spend their money elsewhere, an offer that you get now might not be there in a month, as Eovaldi found out last year.It will be interesting to see whether or not the other top of the market free agent pitchers wait around if Yamamoto does drag the process out until his deadline. Makes total sense right now for guys like Montgomery and Snell to wait for Yamamoto to set the market. Are they willing to wait until January though?
Depends on what other FA pitchers do. Agents know how much teams can spend and who to eliminate (Dodgers now.) Makes sense to wait but someone like Montgomery probably wouldn’t pass up a significant offer from Boston.It will be interesting to see whether or not the other top of the market free agent pitchers wait around if Yamamoto does drag the process out until his deadline. Makes total sense right now for guys like Montgomery and Snell to wait for Yamamoto to set the market. Are they willing to wait until January though?
This is really interesting, and thank you for sharing it. I fully admit to preferring bWAR because of the two I admit to being more beholden to results than what "should" have happened but didn't. Though generally when I'm forming my opinion I just average out the two....Look at the methodologies that give such differing results. When you do you see that fWAR is obsessed with theoretical results, ignoring actual performance. bWAR, on the other hand, doesn't have any adjustment for luck.
This is why I always use WARP for pitchers (as it splits the middle ground between theoretical results and actual ones), and there Bello shows as a top 30 pitcher. He can definitely be a top of the rotation starter and is well on his way there. They really only need another horse to anchor the rotation.
I believe this is a much more likely path than signing Yamamoto.Let’s say Yamamoto signs with one of the NY teams or another non-Boston team.
What if we pivot to signing both Montgomery and Lugo and keep our prospects in house to use in case we want to make a bold move at the deadline if we are still in it?
Unlike a Snell, we won’t get draft penalized for signing either of those 2.