Guilty. I will do better!Not only that ... but posters have stopped breaking long posts into paragraphs!!!
Offseason rumors
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End of the day, I don’t care about perception. I care about the players being added to the team. And, as of right now, there is a ton of work to be done for this team to be able to compete for a title. This team needs an influx of top talent. I hope Yamamoto is the start of that. If he isn’t, they had better figure something else out. While they may not lack commitment, they have been lacking results. But it just takes one FA signing to change this narrative.
I'll just add a few things to the current discussion:
1) It's taken only 1 year, and that Xander contract already looks incredibly stupid. It's only going to get worse.
2) Soto spent the past 2 seasons as part of more talented team and didn't sniff the World Series. While he could have a monster season in NY, transition seasons can be tricky for players, and the added pressure of it being his final season before FA might make it trickier. A player of his caliber playing for his 3rd team at just 24 is perplexing.
3) So, yeah, baseball is weird. With a few solid additions, especially to the pitching staff, who knows? I'm definitely in the "Go all in for Yamamoto!" camp, but when the competition is this deep, defeat isn't in any way indicative of a "system failure." While Bloom may not have had the skillset to improve the team in a multitude of ways, the organizational talent has been considerably improved. I'm excited to see Breslow make his mark.
4) Jordan Montgomery makes too much sense not to happen. Happy wife, happy life!
1) It's taken only 1 year, and that Xander contract already looks incredibly stupid. It's only going to get worse.
2) Soto spent the past 2 seasons as part of more talented team and didn't sniff the World Series. While he could have a monster season in NY, transition seasons can be tricky for players, and the added pressure of it being his final season before FA might make it trickier. A player of his caliber playing for his 3rd team at just 24 is perplexing.
3) So, yeah, baseball is weird. With a few solid additions, especially to the pitching staff, who knows? I'm definitely in the "Go all in for Yamamoto!" camp, but when the competition is this deep, defeat isn't in any way indicative of a "system failure." While Bloom may not have had the skillset to improve the team in a multitude of ways, the organizational talent has been considerably improved. I'm excited to see Breslow make his mark.
4) Jordan Montgomery makes too much sense not to happen. Happy wife, happy life!
Here's the issue. There's no #1 that is clearly going to be available next year in free agency, unless the Braves just don't extend Fried. There's no point in the near future that it looks like the Sox could get a top of the rotation starter. No one on the current team fits that, including Bello, including the farm system. This is the only chance you realistically have for this unless you want to pay through the roof in prospects, so yea, it's real disappointing that they're not really being linked, and if they don't sign him, it says to me that ownership doesn't see 2024 as being a year they're really competing.
There has to be a line between not wanting the team to spend 700 on Ohtani and think they should absolutely be in on other marquee free agents. And next year's other free agents don't really look amazing either. If they want a pitcher for the long term, the time to get him is now.
MLB.com lists the following as 2024 free agents:
Burnes is a different topic, but Wheeler is old and has had declining numbers, Fried will certainly be extended, Scherzer is like 100, Woodruff hasn't proven he can stay healthy, Bieber the same, and the Dodgers aren't letting Walker walk.
One of my criticisms for the Bloom era was that the team never seemed to have a plan. I'll withhold judgment on Breslow, but at some point it would be nice to see a plan beyond trading 4th outfielders.
edit: 2025 doesn't look better:
Either you deal with overpaying a bit now, or be okay with having a rotation that lacks an ace for the foreseeable future.
If this is Wheeler in decline, sign me the hell up.
I don't think a Fried extension is anywhere close to a sure thing either. It's known that they pursued one last winter and couldn't come to terms, and that's from a club with a seemingly magic touch when it comes to extending all their other players.
Problem is Ohtani is undergoing his second TJ and there is no guarantee he even comes back and pitches like his old self. So i was fine not paying what the dodgers did especially since he is not even going to pitching this year
By actually looking at what they won. There’s a huge difference between results and all the other crap that aren’t results.
Boras is a genius. He has approached Marvin Miller in player power by pushing this narrative over who is “more committed.” I think it’s great. No one goes to a game to see the owner.
He already is one. Now, whether that is a good thing or not is up for discussion
Under the rules of baseball, a player can sign with only one team at a time. Given that, every team that wants to sign Yamamoto except for one will be unsuccessful. Will the ownership of all of those teams not be committed to competing in 2024? Or will they simply not have been chosen by Yamamoto? This is not EBay. There is no “buy it now price” that the Red Sox can bid and automatically win the auction.
Every single front office in baseball is aware of the upcoming crop of free agents. That is why so many teams have set their sights on Yamamoto. It is literally for the very reasons you listed. He is the top choice of all of them. They are ready to bid and bid and bid, just as we appear to be.
Every indication we have gotten from the Red Sox is that they want to compete this year and will spend money to do so. If they are one of the many, many teams that will fail to sign Yamamoto, it will tell us nothing about their plans for the rest of the offseason.
Why should anyone believe he will? I don't think he strikes out enough guys, and puts the ball in play too often. How many guys are there in the league that are top of the rotation guys strike out as few guys as he does, and give up as many hard hits as he does?
Unless he figures out how to get more swings and less contact - I don't see why people would think he can make this jump.
Alright, but that doesn't negate that he's going to be 35 at that point. Great pitcher. But even if he leaves Philly he's hardly a long term solution.
Because he's a product of Boston's minir league system, and it can't ever produce pitchers! (Except when it does.)
People keep referring to Fangraphs WAR ratings for pitchers, which are, honestly, risible. The same is true of bWAR, though. Per fWAR Bello is a bottom half of the rotation pitcher. Per bWAR he's an ace (top 10 pitcher in baseball). Rather than taking the either at its word, this should lead people to look at the methodologies that give such differing results. When you do you see that fWAR is obsessed with theoretical results, ignoring actual performance. bWAR, on the other hand, doesn't have any adjustment for luck.
This is why I always use WARP for pitchers (as it splits the middle ground between theoretical results and actual ones), and there Bello shows as a top 30 pitcher. He can definitely be a top of the rotation starter and is well on his way there. They really only need another horse to anchor the rotation.
Aren’t all these flaws just what you are dealing with when trying to sign free agent pitchers? They are always older than you’d like, more expensive than they should be, have had too many injuries, or a combination of all of the above. Instead of signing Zach Wheeler, they need to be able to identify and acquire the next Zach Wheeler (or Snell, or whoemever). Guarantee there are pitchers out there who can be acquired for a reasonable cost and will be great next year- hopefully Breslow can identify and acquire a few.
Because after twelve years in the league, he’s never made the jump and now is well into his decline years?
Do you think the latter isn't possible in this stage of his career with a very pitching centric philosophy by the new CBO and Co?
Another possibility is that it’s silly not to expect improvement from 24-year old pitchers who’ve been in the league for a year and a half or so and are already number three starters, or maybe number two starters.
YMMV but many people consider the top two slots in the rotation to be the top of the rotation. You're saying that he's MAYBE a 2. FWIW, I don't think he's there yet and I don't necessarily THINK that he'll become that. I think he's shown a good deal of promise in a young career and at this stage of his career I think that there is a POSSIBILITY that he can improve and become the pitcher that many of us hope that he can be.
View: https://twitter.com/jonheyman/status/1734004599491530880?s=46
IOW heyman is just pulling shit out of thin air.
He has no sources here
Yeah he was on Twitter for a half hour. It was said that x, y and z are the favorites. Cool.
Appreciate the effort on this post, but, I think this is a flawed approach. Firstly, your argument doesn't benefit from your tossing aside meaningful options like that, it makes it look like you came to the analysis with the conclusion in mind because most of those guys are pretty decent options. Beiber has pitched 200 innings in half of his non-covid complete seasons. Buehler is low key 30 and the Dodgers just took on the only contract that might actually slow their spending. Fried may be extended but some players just want to test the market (see Soto, Juan). Burnes is a good option despite you labeling him "a different topic," and while some of these guys are old, maybe you can just give them a short deal and wait for a better pitching market to make your huge investment-- Wheeler at 3/100 might be kind of a good fit for this team were he available this offseason. And I'm not hearing Roki Sasaki's name in any of this, who some people will tell you could be as good as Yamamoto and our spies in the east are saying is likely to be posted next year. And it's not clear you have to buy a Bona Fide Ace-- players obviously improve and surprise sometimes, and had the Sox simply gone to, say, 3/50 with Elfin last season (hell, call it 3/60,) the rotation would look a lot different.
Plus, the whole point of bringing in Breslow is to help get more value from pitchers that aren't obvious acquisition candidate-- even I can write Yamamoto a $400m check of someone else's money, that's the easy part. Of course we'd all prefer they bring in someone they/we can rely on, but, if Breslow can identify and acquire this year's, say, Mitch Keller, or Dane Dunning, and bring them in before the breakout/turnaround, well, you don't need to pay nine figures for that kind of guy usually.
And the trade market can be surprising, even for stud/ace level players. I don't recall hearing Sale was a likely addition until he was suddenly here and despite the "high price" of prospects there, that was a great trade in the end (the extension, less so...) My point is: it's tempting to squint ahead into the market but a *lot* can change in a year. They should sign Yamamoto because they think he's *worth* 300m (or whatever it ends up being,) not because it's unclear if they'll have a chance to pay someone else 300m again next offseason. (And, again, Roki Sasaki.)
So I appreciate you throwing the names out there and I agree it's not really a banner class from this vantage point in 24 or 25... but I disagree that because of that, the Sox have to spend now. That's a panic mentality, IMO.
I disagree with the flawed approach conclusion. The Red Sox are playing an odds game. There are a million ways to finding pitching, some easier than others. They don’t “have” to do anything but putting together a top rotation through trade and undervalued pitching FAs is just really hard to do. It’s why most teams struggle in that regard. The Sox don’t have much on the farm in this department and, based on the team’s recent history, I’m not overly optimistic the next top-of-the-rotation guy is coming from within. I’ll echo the concerns about Bello’s swing and miss stuff but I think he has 2/3 in a good rotation upside.
I certainly hope that Breslow is able to pull a rabbit out of a hat (actually, we need 2 rabbits) but I think this rotation needs a bonafide stabilizing force in the rotation. Yamamoto should qualify as one although he is admittedly unproven. Montgomery wouldn’t be a sexy signing but he’d instantly be our best starter. Likewise for Snell although I don’t really trust him. At some point, the Sox will need to commit serious money/prospects towards an upgrade. Breslow won’t be pressured into doing something but I certainly hope he’s bold enough to strike when the opportunity arises. I think he is but we’ll see. It’s hard to get a true lay of the land without knowing which guys under control are actually available and what the corresponding price would be.
I do think the path with Seattle is bailing them out of the Robbie Ray deal, but what about taking Ty France off their hands? They reportedly want to trade for Josh Naylor to play first base.
France would give us pretty much exactly what Justin Turner did last year, but with less age-related risk. Steamer projects him for a .335 wOBA in 2024; Turner at .326. He had a down year in 2023 (and wrist injuries). He's not my definition of exciting, but he was well above average before 2023 (128 wRC+ from 2020-22) and is only 29. He’s due $7.2M in his arb2 year and a free agent after 2025. I don’t know the extent of Seattle's (supposed) financial issues, but maybe they think that’s a lot for a DH / poor-fielding 1B.
I tried to shoehorn this idea into a 3-team deal with Ray. Seems complicated. Maybe it’d look something like this?
Boston gets: Bryan Woo, Ty France, Robbie Ray, some cash from Seattle toward Ray's deal
Cleveland gets: Ceddanne Rafaela
Seattle gets: Josh Naylor
Rafaela would supplant Myles Straw, who looks like a mistake out there, and trading Naylor would make way for Kyle Manzardo at 1B. Seattle would clear roughly $20-24 million AAV in salary that they could use toward a Snell deal if they like (France and Naylor are a $ wash). The Sox would get a rough approximation of Justin Turner's bat and defensive versatility at 1B/2B at essentially 2/$17M, take on Ray's 3/$73M, and for their trouble get a young mid-rotation starter in Bryan Woo, who was rushed to the majors and needs some work on his secondaries. (BTV says the Sox get the worst of that deal, FWIW).
Sign Montgomery, trade Pivetta for Polanco, and the Sox would have this deep lineup:
Yoshida - LF
Devers - 3B
Story - SS
Casas - 1B
France - DH
Polanco - 2B
O'Neill - RF
Duran - CF
Wong - C
Bench: Abreu, Refsnyder, McGuire, Reyes
Montgomery, Sale, Bello, Woo, Houck, Crawford (Ray IL)
Jansen, Martin, Whitlock, Winckowski, Schreiber, Slaten, Bernardino (Murphy, Walter, Campbell, Kelly, Weissert in AAA)
France would give us pretty much exactly what Justin Turner did last year, but with less age-related risk. Steamer projects him for a .335 wOBA in 2024; Turner at .326. He had a down year in 2023 (and wrist injuries). He's not my definition of exciting, but he was well above average before 2023 (128 wRC+ from 2020-22) and is only 29. He’s due $7.2M in his arb2 year and a free agent after 2025. I don’t know the extent of Seattle's (supposed) financial issues, but maybe they think that’s a lot for a DH / poor-fielding 1B.
I tried to shoehorn this idea into a 3-team deal with Ray. Seems complicated. Maybe it’d look something like this?
Boston gets: Bryan Woo, Ty France, Robbie Ray, some cash from Seattle toward Ray's deal
Cleveland gets: Ceddanne Rafaela
Seattle gets: Josh Naylor
Rafaela would supplant Myles Straw, who looks like a mistake out there, and trading Naylor would make way for Kyle Manzardo at 1B. Seattle would clear roughly $20-24 million AAV in salary that they could use toward a Snell deal if they like (France and Naylor are a $ wash). The Sox would get a rough approximation of Justin Turner's bat and defensive versatility at 1B/2B at essentially 2/$17M, take on Ray's 3/$73M, and for their trouble get a young mid-rotation starter in Bryan Woo, who was rushed to the majors and needs some work on his secondaries. (BTV says the Sox get the worst of that deal, FWIW).
Sign Montgomery, trade Pivetta for Polanco, and the Sox would have this deep lineup:
Yoshida - LF
Devers - 3B
Story - SS
Casas - 1B
France - DH
Polanco - 2B
O'Neill - RF
Duran - CF
Wong - C
Bench: Abreu, Refsnyder, McGuire, Reyes
Montgomery, Sale, Bello, Woo, Houck, Crawford (Ray IL)
Jansen, Martin, Whitlock, Winckowski, Schreiber, Slaten, Bernardino (Murphy, Walter, Campbell, Kelly, Weissert in AAA)
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To be clear, I'd love to add Yamamoto and AFAIC it can be a blank check, at some point, 30/32/35m a year forever is all basically the same. But I'd love to add him because I think he's the real deal, not because next season's class, a year out, looks a little spotty. A lot will change between now and then, and I sincerely believe there will be other options, by trade, by luck, by development, or by signing someone not currently viewed in the same class as Yamamoto. I'm not saying they should pass and they don't need him: I'm saying don't sign a guy because you're not impressed with the options you currently see in the future, that's bad process.
This is actually my favorite of the proposed Seattle trades so far - it fills a need for everyone. They’ve been making terrible decisions lately, though, so this would be a bit out of character for them.
I don’t think Duran makes a ton of sense for them in that I think they need a classic middle-of-the-order thumper more than a traditional leadoff type. But, again, they’re making a lot of bad choices over there these days, probably didn’t help that the one big contract splurge has been pretty bad.
Yes, that’s fair but there is always going to be someone but there are, what, 30 teams? Having to rely on market inefficiencies is not an easy way to live as a GM. But I generally agree with your approach. I don’t want Snell even if he’s the “best” available option after Yamamoto. I’d take Montgomery if the money isn’t unreasonable. The real problem, as we all know, is that the farm isn’t churning out the arms it needs to. Hopefully, that changes because none of this is sustainable without that.
The Sox have said repeatedly this offseason that they want to acquire two starting pitchers. So the good news is that you and Craig Breslow appear to be solidly on the same page. That should make you happy.
So, now that the Ohtani domino has fallen - how long until Yamamoto signs and the next tier of pitchers un jams? It seems like everyone was holding their breath to see where Shohei and YY go before spending elsewhere.
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/why-yankees-mets-dodgers-are-after-yoshinobu-yamamoto-the-next-mlb-free-agent-to-sign-a-record-contract/amp/
“Multiple league sources have told CBS Sports they expect the final bidding for Yamamoto's services to clear the $300-million mark. And that's without accounting for the posting fee going back to his NPB team, the Orix Buffaloes.”
“Multiple league sources have told CBS Sports they expect the final bidding for Yamamoto's services to clear the $300-million mark. And that's without accounting for the posting fee going back to his NPB team, the Orix Buffaloes.”
Last point before I let it go because we don't disagree: I'm not saying it's gotta be a market inefficiency, I'm saying that we don't reliably know what the options will be this time next year. Maybe Chris Sale will pitch 200 innings, maybe Kutter Crawford will take another leap, maybe Spencer Strider has an affair with someone's mom and has to be traded for pennies on the dollar, maybe Cole surprisingly opts out, maybe someone we currently think of as an also-ran will break out in a contract year and be a viable option. I'll see myself out.
FWIW, his posting period doesn't end until January 4th. I wouldn't be too surprised if it's going to be a little while still.
It will be interesting to see whether or not the other top of the market free agent pitchers wait around if Yamamoto does drag the process out until his deadline. Makes total sense right now for guys like Montgomery and Snell to wait for Yamamoto to set the market. Are they willing to wait until January though?
That's an interesting one @chawson. I fully admit that I'd try like heck to make that getting Logan Gilbert while absorbing all of Ray's deal, but Woo coming back in a scenario where they eat like half of Ray's remaining deal I could see working. That would make Ray, in essence, 3/$39m/$13m in order to get a cost controlled starter that is roughly is another version of Crawford.
The only issue I could really see there is giving Seattle the flexibility to sign Snell, which takes more supply off the market and probably increases Montgomery's price tag. But since both Snell and Montgomery are Boras clients, possibly there could be something worked out where both Seattle (Snell) and Boston (Montgomery) are able to complete the deals immediately after making the trade.
Bello, Montgomery, Woo, Crawford is pretty good. Especially when one assumes Ray is back around the ASG which means you in essence get the first half of starts from Sale and when he gets injured again, Ray is ostensibly ready to step into that spot.
Also gives Boston the ability to bid for another top half of the rotation starter should one come up in 2024/25 (ie Fried, Burnes, shorter term higher AAV for Wheeler) type of deal.
I still would prefer giving up more than Rafaela (and taking on all of Ray's deal) to get Gilbert coming back, but as another option, I can see it.
The only issue I could really see there is giving Seattle the flexibility to sign Snell, which takes more supply off the market and probably increases Montgomery's price tag. But since both Snell and Montgomery are Boras clients, possibly there could be something worked out where both Seattle (Snell) and Boston (Montgomery) are able to complete the deals immediately after making the trade.
Bello, Montgomery, Woo, Crawford is pretty good. Especially when one assumes Ray is back around the ASG which means you in essence get the first half of starts from Sale and when he gets injured again, Ray is ostensibly ready to step into that spot.
Also gives Boston the ability to bid for another top half of the rotation starter should one come up in 2024/25 (ie Fried, Burnes, shorter term higher AAV for Wheeler) type of deal.
I still would prefer giving up more than Rafaela (and taking on all of Ray's deal) to get Gilbert coming back, but as another option, I can see it.
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Teams that are reportedly interested in Yamamto shifting towards a Glasnow/Cease trade or Snell signing might be an indicator that they don’t think they can sign him anymore.
There is a risk though. If teams spend their money elsewhere, an offer that you get now might not be there in a month, as Eovaldi found out last year.
Depends on what other FA pitchers do. Agents know how much teams can spend and who to eliminate (Dodgers now.) Makes sense to wait but someone like Montgomery probably wouldn’t pass up a significant offer from Boston.
FWIW, I took at quick look at Ray's splits, and at least by WHIP he's been owned by the Astros (1.844 in 9 starts) and also has posted a WHIP in 7 starts over 1.400 vs. the Orioles. He's fared a little better vs. the Yanks (1.299 in 6 starts), and best among AL East teams vs. the Red Sox (ouch) and the Rays. His career WHIP is 1.305.
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This is really interesting, and thank you for sharing it. I fully admit to preferring bWAR because of the two I admit to being more beholden to results than what "should" have happened but didn't. Though generally when I'm forming my opinion I just average out the two.
But I didn't know that BBPro (I assume this is where you're getting the data) has another data point that attempts to do the same thing I'm apparently trying to crudely do.
On a quick look, I can see why one wouldn't like backing up the brinks truck for JM based on WARP, but on the other we should start with Duran, Mayer and Bleis and see what else needs to be added to get Logan Gilbert as he might just be Gerritt Cole but 6 years younger. My guess is, there too, the truth obviously lies somewhere in the middle (Montgomery isn't that bad; Gilbert isn't that good), but it's another great data point to use and I appreciate you sharing it.
For Bello, personally at least, it does give some confirmation bias as to the way I tend to look at him. I think of him as an SP2, generally speaking, but with the chance for more due to his age. Which is why I always just call him a "top half of the rotation starter" as I think that encompasses well enough "he's pretty darn good" without having to get bogged down in an argument of if he's a 1, 2 or 3.
I do think that with such a swing toward predictive analytics, a lot of those don't give enough "respect" to pitchers that keep the ball on the ground. I do believe that is a "skill" and if paired with good control, in today's game can lead to a lot of fairly easy innings as so many hitters continue to take the "home run/walk/strikeout" approach to the plate. Bello is excellent at this.
Another reason I've always liked Garrett as a target from the Marlins. A very good k/bb ratio, heavily oriented toward the ground ball, a 5 pitch mix. I think with a good pitching coach approach (ie Bailey) he could take a leap. Of course, the Red Sox infield defense is somewhere between horrible and atrocious, but just more of an "in theory" approach as something that I think could be used very well in an environment like Fenway.
As a little of an "outside the box" approach, I could see guys like Bello (and Garrett) really flourishing if the Sox did something like signed Matt Chapman for 3b, Amed Rosario for 2b (where he at least last year appeared to be a heck of a lot better at 2b than SS, which is somewhat intuitive) with a full season of Story at SS. Not sure where we'd match up with Miami for a trade (or if they'd give up Garrett) but along with signing Montgomery (also a top 30 pitcher in GB% last year among those with 150ip or more) could make some sense.
LF - Yoshida (L)
SS - Story (R)
DH - Devers (L)
1b - Casas (L)
3b - Chapman (R)
CF - Duran (L) / Rafaela (R)
RF - O'Neill (R) / Abreu (L)
2b - Rosario (R)
C - Wong (R)
I don't hate it. A ton depends on Story returning to form, but a ton depends on that anyway. That's a good defensive infield, at least outside of Casas, though he improved last year. Could be a very good defensive OF, at least in Fenway as well. (One of Duran, Rafaela or Abreu is probably headed to Miami in my idea below of):
Montgomery - L
Bello - R
Garrett - L
Crawford - R
Houck - R
Sale - L
I actually kind of like that and it doesn't seem "unreasonable" in terms of FA dollars spent or trades.
Leaves the Sox with money to spend next winter assuming Burnes and Fried are on the market as Sale would be off the books and they would have another year of data to see if it's Crawford (my guess) or Houck (I'd say 'pen) in the rotation.
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Seems to me like Bello’s success is dependent on whether he’s the guy who gave up no homers (0.2) in 2022, or the one who gave up a ton in 2023 (1.4). He had a 2.94 FIP in 2022, and 4.54 in 2023 (with ERA of 4.71 and 4.24). Imagine the real Bello is somewhere in the middle which would still be really good.
Let’s say Yamamoto signs with one of the NY teams or another non-Boston team.
What if we pivot to signing both Montgomery and Lugo and keep our prospects in house to use in case we want to make a bold move at the deadline if we are still in it?
Unlike a Snell, we won’t get draft penalized for signing either of those 2.
What if we pivot to signing both Montgomery and Lugo and keep our prospects in house to use in case we want to make a bold move at the deadline if we are still in it?
Unlike a Snell, we won’t get draft penalized for signing either of those 2.
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