This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots
- Thread starter DennyDoyle'sBoil
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The obsession with the Ryland pick is baffling. It's a 4th that looks like it won't work out. Lots of 4ths don't work out.
I know it's because people don't value kickers, but for example, drafting Ghost in the 4th was huge, it gave them many years of good kicking on a discount and without having to ride the vet kicker merrygo round every year or two. Ryland was a decent gamble, they wanted a kicker who could also kick off, they wanted to get a younger kicker, it was a long term planning pick.
If Ryland was a guard who never did anything like Rick Ohmberger would anyone care after 1 year?
I know it's because people don't value kickers, but for example, drafting Ghost in the 4th was huge, it gave them many years of good kicking on a discount and without having to ride the vet kicker merrygo round every year or two. Ryland was a decent gamble, they wanted a kicker who could also kick off, they wanted to get a younger kicker, it was a long term planning pick.
If Ryland was a guard who never did anything like Rick Ohmberger would anyone care after 1 year?
I'm generally with you , but a kicker holds a hell of a lot more responsibility in his hand (foot) than a backup guard, and the failures are visible and the consequences almost immediate, so it's only natural people notice that more.
I'm not bothered at all by the pick, sometimes you get a gem like Ghost, and sometimes it just doesn't click. And for the faction of the board that was screaming for a tank, feel fortunate we didn't have Folk and a couple of more wins.
I really don't have any further doubt BB is coming back. Add a 3 time SB OC in McDaniels and LFG.
Smart of Bellichick to rope in Josh, Kraft always wanted to make him Bill's successor, loves the guy. Now 2 years as OC and Kraft can give him the old "3rd times the charm" head coach gig
It's not just Ryland.
Since 2019, when the Pats offense has been falling apart at the seems, the Pats have used a 5th rounder on Bailey, a 5th rounder on Rohrwasser, a 4th rounder on Ryland and a 6th on Baringer.
Now, maybe none of those 4 picks being used on offense make a difference, but 3 of those 4 guys were terrible, and have literally cost them games (one of them never even played a game). In addition, this year, they spent 6th and a 7th on cornerbacks (Amir Speed and Isaiah Bolden), even though they already drafted Gonzo, and had already taken Jack and Marcus Jones in rounds 3 and 4 in 2022 (not to mention bringing in Peppers, etc.), Sam Roberts, Cameron McGrone, Joshua Bledsoe, Cassh Maluia, all defense guys taken in rounds 5 and 6 since 2020.
I've said it a million times, I've had faith in BB to turn just about any defensive roster into a competitive unit. But the writing was on the wall about how bad this offense was trending since Brady was here, and while he tried to make splashes in free agency, he sort of tried when he drafted Harry and Thornton, but for the most part, he hasn't taken the number of shots he could have taken over the years.
IMO, given what the roster looked like, of those 10 picks, 7 of them should have been receivers and tight ends. If you hit on 1, maybe get really lucky and hit on 2, it changes a lot how this offense looked since that time, and instead, we've gotten literally nothing from those picks except for a decent rookie punter. Even if a 1 or 2 of those guys had hit, it still would not have solved the most glaring problem this team has had since 2019.
The kicker issue needs macro review:
- Before the season, we knew who Nick Folk was. Lights out from inside the 50, but noodly on kickoffs, occasional injuries and aging. Getting a young kicker in house was a must, so Ryland gets drafted.
- In preseason, the Pats kicked a grand total of one FG in 3 contests, a 44 yarder by Folk. This makes it pretty tough to judge Ryland, going only by practice reps.
- After preseason, the Pats faced a worse-than-normal roster crunch, not just the usual last guys off the bench, vet vs. UDFA flash thing, but a decimated offensive line that needed to be quickly patched up. They they needed to get OTs on the roster, while also keeping other nicked-up linemen (Onwenu, Strange) off of IR. Out went Pierre Strong for Tyrone Wheatley Jr., in came Vederian Lowe for a 6th, and thus, roster crunch. Folk and Ryland together became a luxury BB could no longer afford. And thus, Folk was traded, getting a 7th to help make up for the 6th.
We then know the rest. Every one of those transactions flopped.
So much of this discourse boils down to “Well, the one terrible decision makes a lot more sense once you understand all of the other terrible decisions that led to it.”
I prefer to think of it as increasing desperation, but same diff. And spelling it out for the occasional fans is pretty sad too, but basically, most offensive side choices made by BB were just plain bad for 5 straight years.
It’s been a lot longer than 5 years. Reche Caldwell?
The last two really did it though. It was the most inept I’ve ever seen a Patriots team.
Why they went away from the FB I’ll never understand. Previous to 2022 the run game was hard nosed. I’ll have to really look but I think they used less gap blocking too the last two years. For some of you saying they were running the same concepts, that’s great, but where are the personnel that helped execute in previous years? Skill guys that can block? Did we have any other than Zeke?
That former executive in Houston is also available. Maybe they are trying to get the band back together.
Is this a joke? Caldwell was in 2006. Not sure if you recall but Belichick made some pretty solid additions in the 2007 off-season? Couple of veteran WRs that the league was out on. About three years later, drafted a pair of young TEs that turned out to be pretty okay. Later found a former college QB in the seventh round who ended up with about 7k yards and 35 TDs and maybe the most clutch catch I've ever seen. Belichick was definitively able to find true offensive hall of fame level talent immediately after the swing-and-miss on Caldwell.
Look, Belichick's drafts have gotten worse and worse. And yes, offense in particular has had a lot of bad misses. But guys, come on. The mediocrity of Reche Caldwell, who signed a paltry 2 year $2m contract 17 years ago, immediately before the team had perhaps the greatest offensive season of all time, does not say anything about Belichick's ability to put an offense together. They went to five, and won two, superbowls post-Reche.
This is like saying Theo Epstein can't find cheap DH's because Jeremy Giambi didn't work out. Just totally unserious.
[Edit: also, RIP. Looked up Reche to see what NE paid him and was reminded of his very sad ending .]
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Yeah, this is just silly. Take any 3 year period in the dynasty, and you'll find complimentary picks, FAs and trades on the offensive side of the ball that lead to long duration success. Caldwell as #1 was a bad idea to be sure, but he lasted 1 season.
I don't understand the hand-wringing about Nick Folk. He's 39 and his inability to kick off cost the team about as many games in 2022 as Ryland's FG woes did in 2023. To be clear: Ryland is terrible and should be replaced.
It's hard to overhaul both the offense and the defense simultaneously. They had to do it before, in 2010, and they nailed their offensive picks and the O kept humming even transitioning from the Moss team to the two tight end group. But they whiffed on some defensive picks in there before nailing the Chandler Jones / Hightower duo, moving McCourty to S, etc., and the D was pretty rough from 2010-2012/2013ish. This time around, they did better on defense and missed a bunch on O.
Obviously a lot of these picks didn't hit, but they needed to overhaul the defense. You look at the 2019 D and almost none of those guys are still here - it's Jonathan Jones and Lawrence Guy, and Bentley and Wise were bit players on that team that grew into bigger roles. They had to replace every other spot on that D; that takes some degree of investment. That was a great D but one driven by veterans, not young core talent.
It's hard to overhaul both the offense and the defense simultaneously. They had to do it before, in 2010, and they nailed their offensive picks and the O kept humming even transitioning from the Moss team to the two tight end group. But they whiffed on some defensive picks in there before nailing the Chandler Jones / Hightower duo, moving McCourty to S, etc., and the D was pretty rough from 2010-2012/2013ish. This time around, they did better on defense and missed a bunch on O.
I agree with this; they need to take more shots. I thought this past draft was a positive there; no, they didn't use high picks on O, but they threw a bunch of picks at OL and at WR, and it looks like they got two keepers with late-round picks in Sidy Sow and Pop Douglas. If they're not going high with WR or OL or whatever (and they should, more often, but they can't every year), then they should be double-dipping late.
This was the main defense of the Bloomers on the main board — “He had to make bad moves because the prior GM left him little choice.”
If 2024 BB had a time machine he could go back and kick 2019 BB in the ass.
At least in this case some of the 2019 moves were defensible (specifically Harry, Brown, and Sanu - BB was trying to give Brady some WR help). Of course, all three failed spectacularly.
I brought up Reche as another time early on they picked a retread to be a number one, like he’s done throughout but I digress, then we get a rundown of all the times Bill went out of his way to get offensive help… oh wait. Never went out of his way. Continued with retreads. Throwing darts hoping to hit. No big swings. WRs the league thought was done. A TE some were afraid to draft. A 7 th round QB turned WR. You’re making my case more than you’re supporting yours.
Do you seriously want to make the argument Tom Brady didn’t have ample weapons the large majority of his time in NE? Can you say this with a straight face?
They won six fucking Superbowls and made 3 more. Roster depth matters, and the formula GM Belichick used seemed to work out ok in the end.
Eh, literally every GM is throwing darts most of the time. You can't just draft top 5 and buy the top weapons every year. Having some mistakes is expected. Having nearly all mistakes, on nearly all sections of the offense, is pretty bad.
trading a 1sr for Brandon Cooks isn’t a “big swing” ? Taking Harry in the 1st isn’t a “big swing”?
You know that’s fair. It was pre-coffee and I was frustrated that my point on the fullback was glossed over due to the Caldwell comment. Brandon was a “well look at that” moment. Worked out well-ish. Still don’t understand why that guy can’t stick anywhere. And yep, Harry in the first was a definite breeze maker. Paying for Henry was a weird one but you can convince me it was another swing. Does it take away from the fact that the “go to” seems to be scrap heap guys for most of his time here?
I should know better than to use definitive statements here in SOSH. Never is a dangerous word.
Tom Brady didn’t have ample weapons the large majority of his time in NE. Not even a smirk. Tom Brady was/is by far the single greatest QB to ever put on a NFL uniform(definitive statement.) I’ll argue he had as much of a hand in the refining of the offensive personnel as the coaching staff did, maybe more. How can that be overlooked at this point?
Man, so many of these discussions start in a reasonable place and then get dragged into the absurd.
DotB keeps making the salient point. We’ve had glaring offensive needs since the confetti stopped falling in February 2019. We’ve repeatedly failed to address those needs.
And *part* of the discussion about the failure to address those aforementioned glaring needs is that the Pats have used four draft picks in that time on Kickers and Punters, three of which have been flops.
Of course if they nailed all four of them we wouldn’t be criticizing it. That’s the point.
At some point *outcomes matter*. It’s not *just* about the circumstances and the process. Every GM has a *reason* why they make the decisions they do. But if many those decisions don’t work, and it causes harm to the performance of the team, then it’s reasonable to criticize them.
#obviousness
DotB keeps making the salient point. We’ve had glaring offensive needs since the confetti stopped falling in February 2019. We’ve repeatedly failed to address those needs.
And *part* of the discussion about the failure to address those aforementioned glaring needs is that the Pats have used four draft picks in that time on Kickers and Punters, three of which have been flops.
Of course if they nailed all four of them we wouldn’t be criticizing it. That’s the point.
At some point *outcomes matter*. It’s not *just* about the circumstances and the process. Every GM has a *reason* why they make the decisions they do. But if many those decisions don’t work, and it causes harm to the performance of the team, then it’s reasonable to criticize them.
#obviousness
To put some data behind this…
Over the past 4 drafts (2020-2023) there has been 8 kickers and 10 punters drafted. That’s it.
The Pats accounted for 25% of the kickers drafted, and 20% of the punters drafted.
Meanwhile there were 131 WRs taken over those 4 drafts. The Pats took 4. 3.1%.
We’ve taken as many kickers and punters and we’ve taken WRs in 4 years.
I don’t know that trying to find a long term answer at kicker is really trying to be “cute”. Folk was brutal on kickoffs, has leg strength issues, is really old and was pretty expensive.
yes, it didn’t work out (although it’s possible Ryland improves). But the decision to try to upgrade from him seems sound.
It’s not like Folk was Vinatieri or Gostkowski in their primes. He was a guy who was very mediocre (to outright bad) for a lot of his career, has had a turnaround in his mid/late 30’s and had some big question marks.
he missed 5 out of 19 attempts 40+ yards his last year in New England. And let’s not forget he was so bad his last stop before the Pats he was sitting on the street unemployed for a year.
I get the dislike of Ryland. But at just about any other position, replacing an old guy with a spotty track record, making good money for his position, coming off an apparent decline/reversion to his career averages, with a young cheap draft pick wouldn’t be seen as a horrible and overly cute decision.
Here's my thought on this, not nearly as well-developed as yours might be. Seems to be one of the things that Belichick used to do extremely well is trade back to accumulate assets. More tickets, more hits. Seems like that happens less often, and that when it does the payoff isn't as great. I'm guessing this has to do more with the league catching up to that approach and less to do with anything Patriots-specific. But I'm wondering what others might think about this.
To be honest, I'm wondering if this isn't a bad draft for trading back (seems incredibly unlikely).
Sure, and I say this as someone who both 1) wants Bill to return and 2)Thinks he's been atrocious in personnel over the last several years, but if you look at KC right now they may well have wasted a year of Mahomes and Kelces primes because they dealt away Hill and didn't bring in a replacement, which is pretty similar to some of the Brady/Belichick years (2006, 2012-13). Sometimes even well run teams screw up personnel, or their plans don't work out well. The BB record on offense in the last 4 years is long enough that there needs to be a change in something (I'd get Groh out of there for one thing, that "you want to get faster you gotta draft fast guys" interview was enough for me), but fundamentally this administration is doing a very nice job evaluating defensive talent and equally poorly on offense, across the board.
Lets not forget that Gostkowski, while certainly better than Ryland as a rookie (20-26; 76.9%; 23rd of 31 kickers in 2006 vs 16-25; 64%; 33rd of 33), still needed a season to become the guy.I'm generally with you , but a kicker holds a hell of a lot more responsibility in his hand (foot) than a backup guard, and the failures are visible and the consequences almost immediate, so it's only natural people notice that more.
I'm not bothered at all by the pick, sometimes you get a gem like Ghost, and sometimes it just doesn't click. And for the faction of the board that was screaming for a tank, feel fortunate we didn't have Folk and a couple of more wins.
Great point, I'd forgotten Ghost's rookie struggles. Can you just imagine what some folks will say if both Bill and Ryland are back next year? Heads will 'splode.
I don't really see Ryland back, but it wouldn't shock me to see him get his shit together somewhere. He opened eyes for a reason, I think the talent is there.
Was Bailey really a flop? Or are you counting Baringer a flop?
The Pats have made 50 (?!) selections since 2019. Spending 4 lesser value (lower round) picks on kicker and punter doesn’t seem egregious. The selection of those guys didn’t preclude them from taking tons of shots on plenty of late round guys.
I don’t see where the “pats drafted 4 specialists in 5 drafts” intersects with “BB had failed with his offensive talent acquisitions”. Which I think is the point of contention.
Not even the most ardent BB supporter would suggest he’s nailed his offensive free agents and draft picks “since the confetti fell”. But using drafting of kickers and punters in the mid/late rounds as an argument against his ability to stock the offense seems to imply that he should only use those picks on offensive skill position players and ignore other parts of the roster.
Yes, Rohrwasser and likely Ryland flopped. How are they any more relevant to the failure to build an offense than Pierre Strong, Ronnie Perkins, Dalton Keene, Chase Winovich, Marte Mapu etc?
Isn’t the fundamentally better argument that he has prioritized defensive players too much early in the draft and the offensive players he’s taken early have had worse outcomes as a whole than expected?
Honestly, I don't think BB ever really valued wide receivers. For all the "BuT HE DraFtEd EdeLMaN!!!!" chatter, that was a 7th round flyer (on a guy who played QB in college) who hit. For all the praise BB the GM gets for that one, everyone else shrugs off the Tre Nixon's of the world as "what are you going to do its a seventh rounder?" Just because someone hits big money on a scratcher does not make them a financial genius. The rest of the drafted WRs outside of Branch (who flopped outside of NE) were a mixed bag of bad to average. Furthermore, a lot of the FA WR signings - LaFell, Hogan, Amendola, etc. - were solid but not spectacular and got a sizable bump catching passes from Brady. BB also brought in Ochocinco and Wayne at the end of their careers when they were clearly out of it. Kembrell Hopkins was WR1 for a stretch. He only traded for Moss after Brady complained about throwing to Reche Caldwell. I'll give him that one (even if Moss left after 2 years) and Welker, which was another under-the-radar move at the time which worked out well. ut BB had the luxury of Brady, who could largely turn chicken shit into chicken salad. Oh, Cooks was good too, but gone in a year. Since then, maybe Douglas (another flyer) looks solid, but in 24 years you think there would be a bit more on the resume.
A lot of my frustration with BB is seeing the rest of the league thrive with elite WRs - Chase, Diggs, Hill, Jefferson, etc. immediately made their QBs better - while BB keeps treating them as dime-a-dozen guys. Brady isn't here to make those misfits work any more and I am just nervous that BB is going to trade out of #3 because MHJ is a JAG to him and draft a safety or something instead.
ETA: this is in response to BB not drafting many WRs and only drafting one (Harry) in the first round. He just values other positions a lot more.
A lot of my frustration with BB is seeing the rest of the league thrive with elite WRs - Chase, Diggs, Hill, Jefferson, etc. immediately made their QBs better - while BB keeps treating them as dime-a-dozen guys. Brady isn't here to make those misfits work any more and I am just nervous that BB is going to trade out of #3 because MHJ is a JAG to him and draft a safety or something instead.
ETA: this is in response to BB not drafting many WRs and only drafting one (Harry) in the first round. He just values other positions a lot more.
Not to make it a KC thread but they messed up not having at least one more veteran WR who could be in the right place and earn Mahomes' trust. It's shocking to say this given our own close-up view, but they missed JJSS. The NFL is designed to make sustainable success very difficult. A great QB is a cheat code but it's obviously no guarantee. Injuries crush everyone. Guys age unexpectedly. And even the best teams have to squeak out very close wins that come down to a few plays in a single elimination post season tournament.
More than anything I'd like to see multiple picks at high value offensive positions (WR, OT and QB) over the course of several years. They just did this with OGs. They do it all the time on defense. We need the investment and then you deal with the attrition and the misses that are unavoidable.
That’s not at all close to the truth. The only years where Brady didn’t have weapons to work with were:
2001: Acclerated rebuild in progress, so team relied upon defense.
2006: Deion Branch mess.
2009: Top WRs were great but no depth.
2019: Been discussed. Gordon and Brown blowing up didn’t help.
I think Bill very much valued WR, he just didn't value drafting them. Welker, Moss, Cooks, Branch, Ochocinco etc. Bill liked trading for guys he knew what they were over the kind of WRs you get in the top of the draft.
They also leaned heavily on early pick TEs based on the offense.
Bill shifted to WRs lately (not well) but I think during the Brady years he often decided that a guy who can just step in and play via trade was a better way to build than taking a shot on a rookie coming in and learning on the fly.
They also leaned heavily on early pick TEs based on the offense.
Bill shifted to WRs lately (not well) but I think during the Brady years he often decided that a guy who can just step in and play via trade was a better way to build than taking a shot on a rookie coming in and learning on the fly.
Zuerlein was another rookie who struggled. (23-31; 74%; 30th of 33; just behind Nick Folk in 29th).
It seems a lot of kickers in the relatively modern era bounce around a bit before finding their way. The common thread is that team A doesn't give them time to figure it out. (Although Rams and Pats did with Gost and The Leg).
I'd also be surprised if they dont find some dependable competition at K. But it would not be unprecedented to stick with him.
Yeah. The Ryland/Folk debate is emblematic of how hindsight works in sports message board debates.
Bill values the Swiss Army knife principle. Only the most revisionist history would deny this has on balance served us well for 24 years.
Needing to rely on our punter for kickoffs screwed us bad when our punter got hurt. You could argue it played a material role in missing a chance at the playoffs. Bill didn’t like that Folk can’t kick off effectively and did not want to be in that position again.
This was an entirely reasonable and defensible position. In hindsight, the choices it led to were suboptimal, and Folk had a good year, but this is a tempest in a teapot.
Friendly reminder/request:
Whenever the news comes down for the '24 season regarding the HC, please start a new thread.
New threads are good. When in doubt, start a new thread.
Whenever the news comes down for the '24 season regarding the HC, please start a new thread.
New threads are good. When in doubt, start a new thread.
You couldn't move the goalposts more here if they were on wheels. You quoted a post saying "decisions have been bad for five years" and said "it's been more than five years" and cited a mistake from 17 years ago. I brought up several excellent decisions that happened between that mistake and the period the op referenced. You then changed the target to be "made a big investment," as if somehow it is a bad thing that they brought in these players at good prices.
You seem to think it's more important that the team "go out of [their] way" to add players than it is to... actually add good players? Which, uh, disagree. I'll take Gronk in the second over Harry in the first, thanks.
I disagree, BB spent significant top 2 round draft capital on WR, they just ended up largely sucking. Some of it might have also been Brady’s standards off the bat tbh making it not a rookie-friendly atmosphere. But BB also hit on some late round picks, drafted the GOAT TE, Drafted Watson and Graham in first rounds, drafted a would be top 5 ever TE who instead murdered people, traded for Moss, Welker, Ocho, and Cooks etc., and signed some good pieces like LaFell, Lloyd, Patten, and Danny Amendola. He also made some great OL moves and consistently found elite 3rd down RB talent. The notion BB didn’t put Brady in position to succeed on offense is crazy to me (not saying you said that).
Yeah, I was a little dismissive of Ryland being back, but you're right. I'm as susceptible as anyone to succumbing to the noise at times, and one of the things I love about this place is that it's a check on those kinds of reactions.
Agreed. Even if it were true... they uh, mostly were pretty successful as a team. Both sides of the ball matter and all that. I can't look back on the last 25 years and say they should have invested more in offense and I'm shocked anyone really could. Seems like they did enough, given that it was the most successful two decade run in the history of sport.
I don't think it's Ryland as much that it had to be Ryland 2 years after Rohrwasser.
But, it's not expensive to bring another guy into camp next summer and see if Ryland improved.
He’s taken as many Ks/Ps as WRs in the past four years. Does that seem like an optimal way to draft?
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