the hit rate on 4th/5th round skill players for even the best GM’s is much lower than 50% over any meaningful sample size
and I’d argue a good kicker and punter is more important than the typical 5th round WR or RB. Admittedly, if you hit a home run in the mid/late rounds (Diggs for example), it’s more valuable than any special teams guy. But a bad kicker can sink a competitive team and a good punter can be hugely valuable for getting an edge in field position (see SB46)
for example, going back to the 21 (Rohrwasser) draft since it takes 3 years to evaluate a draft properly. In the 4th and 5th rounds there were 10 cumulative WR. 3 of them have 100+ total catches in 3 seasons (Gabe Davis, Darnell Mooney, KJ Osborn), 5 were out of football this year, and 2 are fringe players (Tyler Johnson, Collin Johnson, both on their 3rd teams in 3 seasons). 5 RB’s were taken, 4 still on various rosters but the best of the bunch is Joshua Kelley who has amassed a total of 1100 yards in 3 years. The other 4 have combined for about 1000 yards (Deejay Dallas, Anthony McFarland, Jason Huntley, LaMical Perine).
Yes, if you never take a swing at a skill position late, you’re never going to find a potential Diggs (or Givens, Edelman etc). But there’s so few kickers and punters in the league available and the vast majority of rookie free agents are not even rosterable players that taking one in the draft makes sense
and Belichick is hardly alone in drafting specialists. The 49ers drafted Wisnowsky in the 4th and Moody 99th overall and the general consensus is that their front office is among the league’s best.
Of course, it's lower than 50%, but I wasn't just talking about the 4th and 5th rounds in that sentence. The Green Bay Packers have taken 6 wide receivers and 2 tight ends in the last two drafts, to build around their young qb.
Are you only looking at the 2021 draft for some reason? Because of the "3 year rule" you decided?
Given the way you cut off your numbers, you don't count Wicks as a hit yet (39 catches, 581 yards, 4tds this year as a rookie 5th rouder), I don't need 3 years to conclude that Puka Nakua (105 caches and 1,400+ yards, 5th rounder) is good, Pop Douglas doesn't have 100 catches yet, so he doesn't count...Cade Otton, a TE, 4th rounder has 89 catches in 2 seasons and 8tds, Jake Ferguson is already over 90 catches, Dobbs (another one in Green Bay) is over 100 catches in 2 seasons, Isaiah Likely and Okonkwu are turning into legit playmakers at tight end, Shakier is the #2/3 option for the team with the #2 seed in the AFC, Tyler Allgeier has over 2,000 yards from scrimmage, without Jerome Ford filling in for Chubb, Cleveland may not be in the playoffs this year, same for Kyren Williams in LA, Isaiah Pacheco was a 7th rounder...All of those guys were taken starting in the 4th round in the 2022 and 2023 drafts. And that doesn't even include guys like Bo Melton who were let go of their original teams are now starting to find success elsewhere.
The idea that there are nothing but fringe guys and busts after the third round so we should go ahead and draft punters and kickers (when we had a fairly decent kicker that we let walk anyway) while having an absolute shitshow of talent on offense, a young QB and a lack of depth on the line is just crazy to me. You miss on 100% of the shots you don't take, and the Pats haven't taken enough shots, and the shots they have taken have been terrible. I don't know how else to say that.
Thanks for the info. 
