(2) Denver Nuggets vs (3) Minnesota Timberwolves - 2024 WC Second Round

lars10

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That's just regular defense but I'm 40 so the nba i grew up with is different.

I get the whole "it ends the series/bad for ratings" but if they dont sit murray a game, what stops the next guy from throwing something?
I’m 50.. picking up full court all game is not regular d as far as I know.. from any era.

Edit: and it seemed really aggressive in general.. but maybe you’re right about the 90s now that I think about it… 80s was a totally different, slower sport with totally different rules.
 

Auger34

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Agreed, whatever happens will happen by 5pm today - and my guess is a fine between 50k and 100k.
I think it's going to be a whopping fine. I don't know the CBA but I think it will probably be the maximum allowed...and yes, I don't think there's anyway he gets suspended
 

HomeRunBaker

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Especially adjusted for the New NBA.....I don't really see a foul? They're showing their hands, not slapping down, bodying him some with "marginal contact"....seems pretty ok. It's terrifying for what that means for the Celtics in a potential Finals, but this is some good D.

Murray creates the initial contact by running into NAW's path. Taking away that foul call on the D has been a specific point of emphasis (and a good one imo).
The problem over the past week has been that we enter each game without a clue as to how they are going to officiate that particular game. Once the initial "Let's go back to the Knicks of the '90s" whistle the Totals were aggressively and overly adjusted....so once the officials seemed to collectively pull back a little to gain more control of the game the Totals didn't budge so the Overs have done very well of late. Then you get last nights game that returns to how they whistled in the first week of the playoffs. The same crews aren't even consistent with this which makes it very difficult if they now return to Knicks 90's. Never seen anything quite like this.
 

Justthetippett

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That's just regular defense but I'm 40 so the nba i grew up with is different.

I get the whole "it ends the series/bad for ratings" but if they dont sit murray a game, what stops the next guy from throwing something?
Primarily their own reputations and standing among their peers. It was a lame, bush league thing to do. I doubt many guys want to be attached to that kind of thing. I hope he doesn't get suspended so there's no excuse and Minnesota can win this series with Denver at full capacity. (And I really doubt we'll see anything.)
 

Auger34

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The problem over the past week has been that we enter each game without a clue as to how they are going to officiate that particular game. Once the initial "Let's go back to the Knicks of the '90s" whistle the Totals were aggressively and overly adjusted....so once the officials seemed to collectively pull back a little to gain more control of the game the Totals didn't budge so the Overs have done very well of late. Then you get last nights game that returns to how they whistled in the first week of the playoffs. The same crews aren't even consistent with this which makes it very difficult if they now return to Knicks 90's. Never seen anything quite like this.
100%.

I just posted something very similar in the other thread. It's actually jarring to watch two different games back to back because of how different they are officiated
 

lovegtm

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The problem over the past week has been that we enter each game without a clue as to how they are going to officiate that particular game. Once the initial "Let's go back to the Knicks of the '90s" whistle the Totals were aggressively and overly adjusted....so once the officials seemed to collectively pull back a little to gain more control of the game the Totals didn't budge so the Overs have done very well of late. Then you get last nights game that returns to how they whistled in the first week of the playoffs. The same crews aren't even consistent with this which makes it very difficult if they now return to Knicks 90's. Never seen anything quite like this.
That's fair. At the very least, the league's decision to wildly change officiating standards in the middle of the season has seemed hard for officials to implement consistently. I don't really even blame them--they're clearly getting instructions from the top, and I wouldn't be surprised if those instructions are changing/pivoting constantly, within a range.
 

jezza1918

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The Tatum part of this is whatever, but the Jokic (Giannis too) part caught my attention.

View: https://twitter.com/Mike_Dyer13/status/1787844098348470401


Jokic is incredible, but that path last year was super easy lol, and people overrated the team based off of that.
My initial thought when seeing this was really just how much luck is involved in winning a title, unless you are part of a dynasty type operation like Spurs or Warriors. Id put an * next to Jokic, as I feel he should get credit for beating a 49 win clips team in the shortened bubble year, not that it changes the overall point.
 

lars10

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lars10

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My initial thought when seeing this was really just how much luck is involved in winning a title, unless you are part of a dynasty type operation like Spurs or Warriors. Id put an * next to Jokic, as I feel he should get credit for beating a 49 win clips team in the shortened bubble year, not that it changes the overall point.
You could go back through any playoffs and there are significant injuries every year that either dash hopes or create an easier path than expected. At one point I went through all of LeBron's titles.. in almost every case the expected best rival for that year had a significant injury either during the playoffs or right before (several times that was the Celtics). Injury luck is a huge factor... just look at the Bucks the last few years.
 

wilked

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I think he’ll be suspended a game, if we’re taking votes. It’s the second item thrown that locks in a suspension
 

the moops

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I'll be surprised if he isn't suspended. Throwing stuff at the ref from behind crosses the line from "bad optics" into "fundamentally destabilizing to the game." Lest that sound histrionic, I mean that, as a ref, you're like, "I can't do my job if I'm worried about projectiles being thrown at me from behind"— and while a towel isn't a projectile, it's not a million miles away. This isn't the 1920s Iron League or the Country/Western Bar from The Blues Brothers. I'll be shocked if he gets off with just a fine.
Yea and it's not even just throwing it at an official. The heat pack landed on the court and right at KAT's feet as he was going up for a layup
 

jezza1918

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You could go back through any playoffs and there are significant injuries every year that either dash hopes or create an easier path than expected. At one point I went through all of LeBron's titles.. in almost every case the expected best rival for that year had a significant injury either during the playoffs or right before (several times that was the Celtics). Injury luck is a huge factor... just look at the Bucks the last few years.
There's a reason I didnt mention Lebron and/or his Heat teams ;)
 

lars10

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There's a reason I didnt mention Lebron and/or his Heat teams ;)
Yes..but are you saying the entire EC of the NFL has been weak over their entire run? I know the Bills, Jets, and Dolphins have been weak, but I'm talking about the playoffs.. and you don't get a bye in the NBA like the NFL.. you have to play three series before the finals.. I see what you're trying to say, but the two aren't exactly comparable. The Pats have had to play some very tough teams in the two-three games they've had to play in the playoffs. (Of course a seven game series is also entirely different).

2018 - Kyrie hurt
2017 - IT finds out his sister died right before the playoffs start, and doesn't play most of the ECF because of an injury (lost to GS 4-1)
2016 - Detroit (4-0), Atlanta (4-0), Toronto (4-2) (beat Golden State 4-3, Green suspended one game)
2015 - Boston (4-0), Chicago (4-2), Atlanta (4-0) (lost to GS 4-2)
2014 - Charlotte (4-0), Brooklyn(4-1), Indiana(4-2) (lost to San Antonio 4-1)
2013 - Milwaukee(4-0), Chicago(4-1), Indiana(4-3), (beat SA 4-3)
2012 - New York (4-1), Indiana (4-2), Boston (4-3) (beat OKC 4-1) This is the year Miami won game 1 at home and then won game 2 with Rondo scoring 44 points... Miami shot 47 free throws and the Celts still took it to OT. Celts won the next three games.. and LeBron had his great game 6.
2011 - Philadelphia (4-1), Boston (4-1), Chicago (4-1), (lost to Dallas 4-2) Rajon Rondo is injured by Wade and plays with a dislocated elbow.

For most of those years the two - four other top teams have been in the WC. Teams like GS, OKC, San Antonio, LA Clippers (at times), Houston... all of these teams have had to play each other before the finals. Cleveland and Miami have had very weak opponents on most of their runs..nothing close to what WC teams have had to go through..and in a few cases they've had to play the other team without key players.

Yes, LeBron has also factored into this of course as one of the most dominant players of all time, but when he's gotten to the finals and had to play just one WC team he's failed more often than not... I'd like to see what his run would have looked like if he'd been in the WC all these years. Partially just for interest but also because I'm admittedly a Celts homer and I'm sick of watching him beat the Celtics. So yes I know I'm diminishing his impact I know, but also I don't think you can look at the EC over the last ten years and tell me there have been even two really strong opponents to the Heat and Cavs. Hawks and Raptors have been flawed teams the entire time.. closest thing they've had to a rival really is Boston early and Indiana over the past few years. I count the last two Boston trips as weak teams as well since the major injuries.. even with that Cavs needed Kyrie to carry the team a lot in the ECF last year and the C's took him to game 7 this year without two of their best players and two crucial role players (especially with those first two out, Larkin is very much a role player, but he would've been a huge help this finals simply to take some of the ball handling pressure off of Rozier and not require Smart to dribble up as much.)
I found the post I made six? years ago.
 

Euclis20

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My initial thought when seeing this was really just how much luck is involved in winning a title, unless you are part of a dynasty type operation like Spurs or Warriors. Id put an * next to Jokic, as I feel he should get credit for beating a 49 win clips team in the shortened bubble year, not that it changes the overall point.
And the Bucks beat a 48-24 Nets team in 2021, Brooklyn certainly would've won 50+ if that was a full 82 game season. It is remarkable how much luck is involved in these things, and why it's so crucial not to let opportunities pass (I'd love to be able to look back on 2022 as a stepping stone rather than the blown opportunity).
 

Ed Hillel

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And the Bucks beat a 48-24 Nets team in 2021, Brooklyn certainly would've won 50+ if that was a full 82 game season. It is remarkable how much luck is involved in these things, and why it's so crucial not to let opportunities pass (I'd love to be able to look back on 2022 as a stepping stone rather than the blown opportunity).
To be fair, 2022 had Timelord’s injury, which was some bad luck. He’d never be the same.
 

Ed Hillel

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Stephen A said Murray should be suspended, btw, so that pretty much cements it’ll happen.
 

Sox and Rocks

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My Nuggets are in deep trouble. Minnesota just beat them up, literally and figuratively, all night. Granted, the officiating in the first half was terrible and favored the Wolves style of play, but the Nuggets made no adjustments for it. They needed to play more physical themselves on D and get out into transition, and they did neither.

Murray's behavior was/is embarrassing and unexpected. And clearly he is hurt because he dominated Minnesota last year and has been bad all playoffs this year. The Nuggs have no chance without him.

On the bright side, and perhaps the only bright side: Minnesota shot over 50% in both games thus far, and Denver shot 34% last night. Yes, the Wolves' D is a factor in this, but here will be some reversion to the mean there.
 

chilidawg

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On the bright side, and perhaps the only bright side: Minnesota shot over 50% in both games thus far, and Denver shot 34% last night. Yes, the Wolves' D is a factor in this, but here will be some reversion to the mean there.
Possibly, but I felt Minnesota's shot quality reflected the difference in shooting %. It's not just a make or miss difference.
 

Euclis20

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Possibly, but I felt Minnesota's shot quality reflected the difference in shooting %. It's not just a make or miss difference.
Also, Minnesota's shooting %'s are good but not really out of character. They shot 48.5% from the field and 38.7% from 3 this year during the regular season. They're at 51.2% from the field and 40% from 3 in these two games against Denver. This isn't Miami shooting 53.5% from 3 in one game (more than 16% above their season average), A 2% bump in shooting %'s isn't something crying out for mean reversion, not in the next couple of games anyway.

There really isn't much to be positive about if you're a Denver fan. You can hope Murray makes a miraculous recovery, or the moment gets too big for Minnesota, or the refs starting calling aggressive defense fouls, or maybe Ant gets cold and tries to shoot his way out of it. There's very little in the way on-court optimism, especially now that they need to win a couple of road games.
 

slamminsammya

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I was surprised Murray had such a mental meltdown. I’ve always liked him but last night i found myself disgusted watching him and his reactions. The refs missed a call early that was either a charge or a blocking foul and he just never got over it. that shit happens all the time
 

lovegtm

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I was surprised Murray had such a mental meltdown. I’ve always liked him but last night i found myself disgusted watching him and his reactions. The refs missed a call early that was either a charge or a blocking foul and he just never got over it. that shit happens all the time
Yeah, he's probably really frustrated because his injury doesn't give him any outlet to get over the call and move on. You "move on", and it's just more swarming Minny defense that he can't counter physically.
 

Auger34

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I was surprised Murray had such a mental meltdown. I’ve always liked him but last night i found myself disgusted watching him and his reactions. The refs missed a call early that was either a charge or a blocking foul and he just never got over it. that shit happens all the time
My guess is that he's injured, which is frustrating him since he can't do what he normally does. Combine that with this being the playoffs and the Wolves hounding him, I think he had a very uncharacteristic meltdown
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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In context it sure seems like he's throwing stuff at the refs. He had beef with them then threw stuff to right where the ref was standing. Can you prove it? Whatever. When you throw shit on the court you don't get the benefit of the doubt.

We all hate refs, but the NBA won't tolerate that. I guess they have an out that it wasn't clear, but I assume the union has not been silent behind the scenes. I think he gets a game.
 

Sox and Rocks

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From last night's pool report:

The Pool Report interview was conducted by Vinny Benedetto (Denver Gazette) with Crew Chief Marc Davis following tonight’s Timberwolves at Nuggets game.



QUESTION:
The item that was thrown onto the court in the first half, were the officials aware that appeared to come from the Denver sideline?

DAVIS: I was the lead official and I didn’t notice it was on the floor or where it came from until [Karl-Anthony] Towns scored.



QUESTION: If you had been aware of that, what would the punishment have been in that situation?

DAVIS: We weren’t aware it had come from the bench. If we would have been aware it came from the bench, we could have reviewed it under the hostile act trigger. The penalty would have been a technical foul.



QUESTION: Definitely a technical foul and not an ejection?

DAVIS: Yes. For an ejection, you would have to determine it was thrown directly at somebody versus thrown in frustration.



QUESTION: When Michael Malone comes out to address you after I believe Jamal Murray tried to take a charge, why was he not assessed a technical foul?

DAVIS: Although Coach Malone was visibly upset about both his team and the officials, I did not hear him say anything unsportsmanlike that warranted a technical foul.

https://official.nba.com/pool-report-on-an-item-thrown-on-the-floor-during-live-play-in-the-second-quarter-of-tonights-minnesota-timberwolves-and-denver-nuggets-game/
 

TrapperAB

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Sadly predictable.

I find it pathetic when there’s a systemic decision to have different rules for different players — and allowing rule enforcement to be influenced by immaterial context (playoffs, desire for TV ratings).

I love Murray and the Nuggets. But the league created precedent: the money gesture alone is a $100k fine. Throwing a towel near the baseline (which someone VERY hastily picked up) then escalating by tossing a heat pack onto the court? That’s someone who was probably told//encouraged to calm down and went in the opposite direction.

Should have been a one game suspension.
 

nattysez

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Aight so chucking shit on the court is ok. Established.
Just wait until Payton Pritchard gets suspended three games next season for tossing a towel in the general direction of a ref and the league entirely ignores this decision as "precedent."
 

Justthetippett

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I was surprised Murray had such a mental meltdown. I’ve always liked him but last night i found myself disgusted watching him and his reactions. The refs missed a call early that was either a charge or a blocking foul and he just never got over it. that shit happens all the time
I'm sure the injury is playing a role but he's coming across like a frontrunning baby. His game is fun to watch but his antics are all annoying to me. He's going to have to get it together for them to have any chance. This is not the best series for Joker, clearly.
 

lovegtm

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It's funny to watch all the Denver evaluation swing so hard the other way.

They were never as unbeatable as they looked last playoffs, and they're not as bad as they looked in Game 2. Obviously Murray's injury complicates things.

They're a good team that can win a title with lots of breaks. They execute great down the stretch, but they end up going into crunchtime way, way too often, and it sets them up for disaster if even one of those games goes the wrong way (as it did in Game 1).
 

Senator Donut

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It's funny to watch all the Denver evaluation swing so hard the other way.

They were never as unbeatable as they looked last playoffs, and they're not as bad as they looked in Game 2. Obviously Murray's injury complicates things.

They're a good team that can win a title with lots of breaks. They execute great down the stretch, but they end up going into crunchtime way, way too often, and it sets them up for disaster if even one of those games goes the wrong way (as it did in Game 1).
The Denver whiplash is incredible.

The Kevin O’Connors of the world installed them as clear-cut title favorites based on the results of two games: beating the Boston Celtics in close finishes. Nevermind that they could not put any distance between themselves and OKC/Minnesota during the regular season despite trying hard for the one seed.

Now based on two games, they’ve basically been written off.

It would be pretty trite to say that the truth lies somewhere in the middle, and there is more to it than that. No showing at home in game 2 is an alarming sign. HRB and others have pointed out how historically favorable this series scenario has been for the home team and I thought that trend would continue. I don’t see Denver turning this around unless there is some big change to the series, likely either Murray’s health or a tighter whistle.
 
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Auger34

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It's funny to watch all the Denver evaluation swing so hard the other way.

They were never as unbeatable as they looked last playoffs, and they're not as bad as they looked in Game 2. Obviously Murray's injury complicates things.

They're a good team that can win a title with lots of breaks. They execute great down the stretch, but they end up going into crunchtime way, way too often, and it sets them up for disaster if even one of those games goes the wrong way (as it did in Game 1).
It's definitely swung too far but, assuming Murray's injured and it definitely seems like he is, isn't this kind of what people were calling out all along?

They have a great starting 5 but if any of them got injured, they are screwed. They just don't have much usable depth. They also only have two creators on the entire team and one of them just got hurt
 

Ed Hillel

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I’ll write them off because Murray looks hurt and more likely to get hurt worse at this point than recover. If he was healthy, I think they’d have a legit shot.
 

lovegtm

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It's definitely swung too far but, assuming Murray's injured and it definitely seems like he is, isn't this kind of what people were calling out all along?

They have a great starting 5 but if any of them got injured, they are screwed. They just don't have much usable depth. They also only have two creators on the entire team and one of them just got hurt
The overreliance on crunchtime execution hasn't been talked about enough imo. They easily could have been down 3-2 to the Lakers, but people treated it as total domination.
 

Tony C

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It's definitely swung too far but, assuming Murray's injured and it definitely seems like he is, isn't this kind of what people were calling out all along?

They have a great starting 5 but if any of them got injured, they are screwed. They just don't have much usable depth. They also only have two creators on the entire team and one of them just got hurt
I was essentially about to write the same thing. Perhaps they were a bit overrated, but even if so always with the caveat that they're treading a thin line needing to be injury free. If Murray gets healthy over the next few days (by the way, shouldn't they have sat him out for game 4 and/or 5 against the Lakers?), I'd absolutely put them back up there with contender status. If not, though, they're a very thin team and while I like Porter and Gordon they thrive as secondary players. As great as Jokic is, hard to see him single-handedly carrying the Nuggets. That was always the analysis, not just a reaction to one loss.

In other words, it's not that the pendulum has swung too far, it's that it's taking into account circumstances that were always acknowledged to be relevant.
 

tims4wins

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They haven't won 60 games, they beat the 8-4-7-8 seeds last year to win it all, they trailed the majority of the Lakers series... I never understood the juggernaut talk.
 

Euclis20

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Coming back from down 0-2 is rare enough (only 33 of 454 teams down 0-2 came back to win their series, 7.3%), but how uncommon is it for a team to go down 0-2 at home and come back and win? I know the 2017 Celtics did it in round 1 against Chicago.

I’ll write them off because Murray looks hurt and more likely to get hurt worse at this point than recover. If he was healthy, I think they’d have a legit shot.
Yeah this is where I am. Denver's offense is a finely tuned machine - when everyone is present and close to 100%, it looks absolutely unstoppable in the half court, which means they win close games at an unusually high rate. Throw some sand in that machine (Murray's injury), and they are drastically worse.
 

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It's definitely swung too far but, assuming Murray's injured and it definitely seems like he is, isn't this kind of what people were calling out all along?

They have a great starting 5 but if any of them got injured, they are screwed. They just don't have much usable depth. They also only have two creators on the entire team and one of them just got hurt
This nails it. Last year they had health, and they also had more depth with Brown. This year, they are less healthy and have less depth. It's really that simple.

There are lots of legit contenders in the NBA, and it will likely remain that way, but if Denver can improve their depth, they will remain a contender for several more years regardless of how/when their season ends this year.
 

Brand Name

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Coming back from down 0-2 is rare enough (only 33 of 454 teams down 0-2 came back to win their series, 7.3%), but how uncommon is it for a team to go down 0-2 at home and come back and win?
Five times, including that Celtics example:

-2021 Clippers over Mavs
-2017 Celtics over Bulls
-2005 Mavs over Rockets
-1994 Rockets over Suns
-1969 Lakers over Rockets
 

HomeRunBaker

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Really depends on how his leg responds to all of the rest. A limited Murray really hurts DEN as unlike the Cs - they don't have different ways to win.
It's funny to watch all the Denver evaluation swing so hard the other way.

They were never as unbeatable as they looked last playoffs, and they're not as bad as they looked in Game 2. Obviously Murray's injury complicates things.

They're a good team that can win a title with lots of breaks. They execute great down the stretch, but they end up going into crunchtime way, way too often, and it sets them up for disaster if even one of those games goes the wrong way (as it did in Game 1).
Murray takes this team from meh to very good. Without Murray, or with him as he is his current physical state, they see the equivalent of a play-in team. The response from a playoff loss is so telling…..Celtics G3 in Miami was one way, Nuggets G2 at home was the opposite. I had the Nuggets losing all 3 games in Minnesota pre-series and obviously nothing is changing my mind now. The Wolves look like a team on a mission but Murray has 3 days off and another chance to rebound off a loss. I don’t expect them to but we’ll see what happens with Murray’s physical state.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Yeah this is where I am. Denver's offense is a finely tuned machine - when everyone is present and close to 100%, it looks absolutely unstoppable in the half court, which means they win close games at an unusually high rate. Throw some sand in that machine (Murray's injury), and they are drastically worse.
It's not really an offense but more like a cheat code. When everything is working, the league really hasn't figured out how to defend the Jokic/Murray PnR and that's going back years. But as you say, everyone has to be healthy and Murray isn't - when he's shooting 9-28, the PnR becomes a lot less productive.

Hopefully Murray can get healthy because the one thing I really want is a long, drawn-out, super physical series.