2015 Jets: Back on Track

[luckiestman]

 
Dilfer was a mediocre game manager.  He had a 4.9% interception percentage in 2000, which is terrible and especially so for a guy not being asked to throw often or in tough situations.  He also fumbled eight times for a total of 19 turnovers (or potential turnovers in the case of fumbles) in only 8 games started and 11 played.  In the playoffs, he only threw one pick, riding the high side of variance, but took sacks on 12% of his dropbacks, fumbled three times, and completed less than 50% of his throws.  The guy was awful and the Ravens won despite him being awful.

 
 
I have to tell you, that 2000 Ravens team shocked the hell out of me. In the last game of the season the Jets jumped up on them and needed to win to make the playoffs. Jets choked it away. Then I think the Ravens next play Denver in the playoffs and the Broncos could barely get a first down. 
 
 
edit: I just went and looked at their year. They were pasting some teams the second half of the season, that jets game may have given me the wrong idea looking back. I think I probably saw zero Ravens games until their last game. 
 
edit2: Looked up the boxscore of the Jets/Ravens game. Fucking Jets gave up 3 special teams touchdowns to the Ravens to end their season, holy fuck I blacked that out of my brain. All I remember is that I think we scored on a flea flicker early

 

[SumnerH]

Then I think the Ravens next play Denver in the playoffs and the Broncos could barely get a first down.

Here are the string of scoreless red zone plays to start off their 5-game TD-less stretch (where they went 2-3 without scoring a touchdown).

RAV 8 Doug Pederson pass complete to Marc Edwards for 4 yards (tackle by Robert Bailey). Marc Edwards fumbles (forced by Robert Bailey), recovered by Marc Edwards at BAL-4
RAV 4 Marc Edwards up the middle for 3 yards. Marc Edwards fumbles, recovered by Rod Woodson at BAL-0
RAV 18 Tim Couch pass incomplete intended for Travis Prentice is intercepted by Ray Lewis at BAL-15 and returned for 1 yard (tackle by Dennis Northcutt)
RAV 3 Tim Couch pass incomplete intended for Tarek Saleh
RAV 3 Travis Prentice left end for -7 yards (tackle by Rod Woodson)
RAV 10 Penalty on CLE: Delay of Game, 5 yards (no play)
RAV 15 Tim Couch pass complete to David Patten for 9 yards (tackle by Kim Herring)
RAV 6 Tim Couch pass complete to Travis Prentice for 2 yards (tackle by James Trapp) (Turnover on downs)

RAV 13 Mark Brunell for no gain. Mark Brunell fumbles, recovered by Mark Brunell at BAL-13
RAV 13 Mark Brunell pass incomplete intended for Daimon Shelton
RAV 13 Mark Brunell pass incomplete intended for Keenan McCardell
RAV 13 Steve Lindsey 31 yard field goal no good
RAV 15 Fred Taylor right tackle for 4 yards (tackle by Ray Lewis)
RAV 11 Jamie Martin pass complete to Kyle Brady for 10 yards (tackle by Ray Lewis)
RAV 1 Fred Taylor left end for 1 yard, touchdown

The game before these, they held the Bengals out of the red zone entirely for the game.

 

[Tony C]

bump
 
the D is legit-opportunistic and made Luck look ordinary (make hurried decisions)
 
Fitzy is a game manager and if they develop a more consistent running game they will be a pain in the ass.

 
fwiw, I love Ivory and thought he was the one great move by Idzik before he was run out town (actually his other great move was clearing cap space, which the new regime is taking advantage of). He is injury prone, though.
 
 

As a Pats fan I'm getting worried that Bowles is going to be a great coach.  He's been a pretty good defensive coach and he just has a nice demeanor to him that I bet players are going to love.   He's sort of Rex without the bombast. 

 
That's my worry, too. I think the Jets will be tough this year but I'm not too worried given their QB and other issues noted above. But they had a really good defense last year and with a real coach rather than the Rex Ryan clown show they might be a great defense this season. That won't be enough to win with Fitz/Geno at QB and the OL problems -- but their arrow is pointed up, for sure. 

 

[dcmissle]

Agree on Bowles. Smart, hard working, professional. Arrow is up.

Now it's on Woody to stay out of the way, and on the GM to build the team.

 

[luckiestman]

Agree on Bowles. Smart, hard working, professional. Arrow is up.

Now it's on Woody to stay out of the way, and on the GM to build the team.

Woody is a huge problem but this Bowles hire was a good move

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

That's my worry, too. I think the Jets will be tough this year but I'm not too worried given their QB and other issues noted above. But they had a really good defense last year and with a real coach rather than the Rex Ryan clown show they might be a great defense this season. That won't be enough to win with Fitz/Geno at QB and the OL problems -- but their arrow is pointed up, for sure.

I'd agree that the arrow is pointed up, mainly because of the Bowles hire and improving the team in the short term through some big moves this off-season.  But this roster is still a train wreck in a lot of ways:
 
-QB situation.  Enough said,.
-The OL is mediocre and 4/5 guys are on the wrong side of 30 (cheating to include Giacomini, who gets there in a couple days).
-They have a bunch of other key players (Revis, Cro, Marshall, Pace, Harris) that are 30+ as well.
 
They have great young talent on the defensive line but, overall, this isn't a young team or one that has amassed a particularly impressive base of younger talent.  Its basically the same mediocre group that Rex coached last year, with a new coach and with three 30+ year-old acquisitions (Revis, Cro, Marshall) that will help them win now but are likely to provide diminishing returns going forward.

 

[MuppetAsteriskTalk]

Watching that game...damn, wish Revis still played for the good guys

 
He ended up with a great stat line with the picks and fumble recovery, but I didn't think he actually played that great. He looked kind of slow and got punked on several plays.
 
I'm just a casual observer though, and would be curious to hear from people who know how to break down individual performances. 

 

[Devizier]

6 fumbles "forced", 6 fumbles recovered, with two of those fumbles on their 1-yard line. How good will this D be when they face teams that protect the ball better (Possibly every team in the league they have not faced)?
 
edit: Spelling

 
This is pretty much how the Patriots defense works; force the opponent to make "unlucky" or "uncharacteristic" mistakes. It's the residue of design.
 
The Jets look like a formidable team this year, but their offense is still highly suspect.

 

[Silverdude2167]

 
This is pretty much how the Patriots defense works; force the opponent to make "unlucky" or "uncharacteristic" mistakes. It's the residue of design.
 
The Jets look like a formidable team this year, but their offense is still highly suspect.

Gore dropped the ball on the 1-yard line and recovering 100% of fumbles including your own is not sustainable when fumble recoveries are random.
 
They are going to stop getting 5 TO's a game and when that happens how will they do? For how good the Defense has looked both the Colts and Cleveland were able to move the ball on them.

 

[Devizier]

 
Be more helpful if you compared the eras and added that context but fine I concede Fitz is better than Dilfer.

 
In the immortal Dilfer versus Fitzpatrick debate, I weigh in with this comparison of indexed adjusted net yards/attempt. This statistic adjusts for era. I included cumulative seasons from 1995 through today, so as to include Dilfer's career against Fitzpatrick's career.
 
Given all the caveats with interpreting this result, would anyone really be surprised if I told them that Fitzpatrick ranked #78 among quarterbacks in the last twenty years, and that Dilfer ranked #88? This ranks them among such luminaries as Derek Anderson and Tim Couch.

 

[RedOctober3829]

 

Manish Mehta ‏@MMehtaNYDN  16s16 seconds ago
Jets all-world cornerback Darrelle Revis didn't practice today due to a groin injury. #nyj
 

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

 

I wish it was a more long-term thing but so far it doesn't seem like one.

This season has some signs of a classic wild card team. Good defense, decent contribution from the QB, and avoiding injuries.

Cromartie looked like he had a ACL tear, and Decker also could have.

I think Jets could be better than either the Dolphins or the Bills, but not enough to sweep either squad.

Rest of the AFCE killing each other to come out .500 would be just what the Pats could use, and most likely get.

 

[RedOctober3829]

 

Rich Cimini ‏@RichCimini  30m30 minutes ago
Jets CB Darrelle Revis (strained groin) is uncertain if he will play on Sunday: "We'll see. It's day-to-day." He... http://espn.go.com/espn/now?nowId=21-0438765986431112302-4 …

 
 

 

[tims4wins]

So through 3 games against not the best defenses, Fitz is at 62.1%, 6.09 YPA, 6 TD, 5 INT, 78.4 rating.
 
Pretty much in line with his career of 60.3%, 6.60, 129 TD to 106 INT, 79.4 rating. His completion % is a little up and his YPA is a little down - maybe playing slightly more conservative with that defense.
 
So basically he is who we thought he was, to paraphrase Denny Green.
 
The question is, what ceiling does that give this team with their defense?
 
Remaining schedule:
@ Miami
vs. Washington
@ NE
@ Oak
vs. Jax
vs. Buff
@ Houston
vs. Miami
@ NYG
vs. Tenn
@ Dallas
vs. NE
@ Buffalo
 
That is quite favorable. The Miami game looks pretty good right now. Aside from the Pats game, the next 5 looks like an easy stretch. Not inconceivable they could win 4 out of 5 and get to 6-2. This week in Miami and the game at Oakland are going to be big ones - win those two and this could be a playoff team.

 

[luckiestman]

The schedule looks good. I like the way they are playing. They just can't get so far behind. Marshalls blunder aside, I like their discipline. They are still a work in progress, but they're easy to root for.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

The main question for me is Buffalo for real or not?  If Buffalo is a legit playoff team, it's going to be a real problem for the Jets to have 4 games against BUF and NE and make a run.
 
The rest of the schedule is pretty bad though. Regarding the next 5 games, it looks easy but there's a lot of travel. This week is in London, then a bye and home game against Wash. Then to NE, then to Oakland.
 
If the Jets come into NE at 4-1, does the NFL flex that to 8:30? The Sunday night game is Arizona / Baltimore which is no longer a prime game. It'd be pretty rough to flex it to 8:30, then force a team to fly across the country to play next week.

 

[steveluck7]

The main question for me is Buffalo for real or not?  If Buffalo is a legit playoff team, it's going to be a real problem for the Jets to have 4 games against BUF and NE and make a run.
 
The rest of the schedule is pretty bad though. Regarding the next 5 games, it looks easy but there's a lot of travel. This week is in London, then a bye and home game against Wash. Then to NE, then to Oakland.
 
If the Jets come into NE at 4-1, does the NFL flex that to 8:30? The Sunday night game is Arizona / Baltimore which is no longer a prime game. It'd be pretty rough to flex it to 8:30, then force a team to fly across the country to play next week.

Does CBS still get to protect a game? If so, I would imagine they would really want to preserve that as the 4:30 game.

 

[Dan Murfman]

CBS gets to protect a game so I would be very surprised if they don't protect Pats/Jets.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

What i didn't realize is the NFL set almost all east coast games @ 1pm with the plan to flex what they want every week to the 4:15/25 time slot. So there's probably 100% chance that game goes to 4:30 if things break like they look like they will.

 

[Stitch01]

So through 3 games against not the best defenses, Fitz is at 62.1%, 6.09 YPA, 6 TD, 5 INT, 78.4 rating.
 
Pretty much in line with his career of 60.3%, 6.60, 129 TD to 106 INT, 79.4 rating. His completion % is a little up and his YPA is a little down - maybe playing slightly more conservative with that defense.
 
So basically he is who we thought he was, to paraphrase Denny Green.
 
The question is, what ceiling does that give this team with their defense?
 
Remaining schedule:
@ Miami
vs. Washington
@ NE
@ Oak
vs. Jax
vs. Buff
@ Houston
vs. Miami
@ NYG
vs. Tenn
@ Dallas
vs. NE
@ Buffalo
 
That is quite favorable. The Miami game looks pretty good right now. Aside from the Pats game, the next 5 looks like an easy stretch. Not inconceivable they could win 4 out of 5 and get to 6-2. This week in Miami and the game at Oakland are going to be big ones - win those two and this could be a playoff team.

9-7 ceiling. Schedule isnt hard, but the quarterback just turns the ball over too much even in conservative game plans to do any better.  I bet they lose to Miami in London next week.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

9-7 ceiling. Schedule isnt hard, but the quarterback just turns the ball over too much even in conservative game plans to do any better.  I bet they lose to Miami in London next week.

 
Miami looks dreadful. I would be surprised if they beat the Jets.

 

[nothumb]

9-7 ceiling. Schedule isnt hard, but the quarterback just turns the ball over too much even in conservative game plans to do any better.  I bet they lose to Miami in London next week.

Looking ahead, I think it's very possible the Jets have 8 or 9 wins going into the Dallas game. But those last 3 games are brutal, and each opponent is likely to be motivated / still playing for something.

Their secondary is old and already banged up. They really need to be perfect in their non divisional games and have some good fortune around health. If I had to guess today, I'd say they drop their last three games to go 8-8 and miss the playoffs.

 

[jsinger121]

Mike Garafolo ‏@MikeGarafolo  22s23 seconds ago
Jets claimed S Dion Bailey from the Seahawks, source says. Bailey was waived to make room for Kam Chancellor.

 

[Section30]

The Jets are preparing for the London game by, among other things, shipping 350 rolls of 2-ply toilet paper.
 
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/10/01/jets-bringing-their-own-to-toilet-paper-to-london-because-why-not/#comment-4573705
 
The article is from NBC, the comments are pretty good, esp. "Sounds redundant, they're already bringing their playbooks. Right?"
 
 
It actually sounds like a well thought out process. More good preparation from the Jets, arrow up.

 

[5dice]

The Jets are preparing for the London game by, among other things, shipping 350 rolls of 2-ply toilet paper.
 
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/10/01/jets-bringing-their-own-to-toilet-paper-to-london-because-why-not/#comment-4573705
 
The article is from NBC, the comments are pretty good, esp. "Sounds redundant, they're already bringing their playbooks. Right?"
 
 
It actually sounds like a well thought out process. More good preparation from the Jets, arrow up.

Prevention of butt fumbles.

 

[Leather]

Prevention of butt fumbles.

 
No, no, it's a shout out to #1 fan Sean "dingle" Berry.
 
I'm here all night!

 

[jon abbey]

The offense is obviously totally different with Ivory and Decker in there (both missed the Philly game). Decker clearly isn't a hundred percent but made a big one-handed catch early on, and Ivory had the best game of his career. Fitzpatrick is still Fitzpatrick, but he made some big throws and ran for some key first downs.
 
Now they get a bye, and seemingly they get Sheldon Richardson back. It's hard to believe the NFL isn't going to suspend him again for that crazy car incident, but that seems to be the case from what I'm reading. 

 

[luckiestman]

The offense is obviously totally different with Ivory and Decker in there (both missed the Philly game). Decker clearly isn't a hundred percent but made a big one-handed catch early on, and Ivory had the best game of his career. Fitzpatrick is still Fitzpatrick, but he made some big throws and ran for some key first downs.
 
Now they get a bye, and seemingly they get Sheldon Richardson back. It's hard to believe the NFL isn't going to suspend him again for that crazy car incident, but that seems to be the case from what I'm reading. 

I don't know what scheme they will run with Wilkerson Williams and Richardson but I'm pretty excited to see what happens. Bowles is already my favorite coach since Parcells and that isn't record dependent. The QB is clearly the weak link but it should be an interesting season and I'm not angry watching the games because of Rex so this has been maybe the best year since "you play to win the games, hello"

 

[GeorgeCostanza]

I'm not angry watching the games because of Rex so this has been maybe the best year since "you play to win the games, hello"

Coming from a pats fans perspective I agree. I don't know if it was just the joy of being able to watch a game as soon as I rolled out of bed, or if it's simply Rex being gone, but I enjoyed watching the Jets play. I feel dirty writing that. The defense is legit good. They would scare me a bit in a playoff game if they had someone better at QB.

Also the dolphins are atrocious.

 

[k-factory]

Coming from a pats fans perspective I agree. I don't know if it was just the joy of being able to watch a game as soon as I rolled out of bed, or if it's simply Rex being gone, but I enjoyed watching the Jets play. I feel dirty writing that. The defense is legit good. They would scare me a bit in a playoff game if they had someone better at QB.

Also the dolphins are atrocious.

 
Amazingly the AFC East stands the best chance of producing the two non-division winning wild card teams.

 

[RedOctober3829]

The Jets get Sheldon Richardson back this week after his 4-game suspension.  With Leonard Williams hurting and his status unknown for Week 6(bye this week), this is an opportune time for him to come back.

 

[mwonow]

The Jets get Sheldon Richardson back this week after his 4-game suspension.  With Leonard Williams hurting and his status unknown for Week 6(bye this week), this is an opportune time for him to come back.

I still can't believe the NFL is overlooking the "driving 150 in a car reeking of pot with a 12 year old in the back seat and a semi-automatic in the front" thing. What do you have to do to get suspended in this league? 

 

[Super Nomario]

I still can't believe the NFL is overlooking the "driving 150 in a car reeking of pot with a 12 year old in the back seat and a semi-automatic in the front" thing. What do you have to do to get suspended in this league? 

Don't worry, the league will probably suspend him for the first two games in 2017 a la T.J. Ward's one-game suspension this year for something that happened 18 months ago. Nothing says "protect the shield" like punishing a player for something that happened over a year ago and everyone forgot about.

 

[amarshal2]

Don't worry, the league will probably suspend him for the first two games in 2017 a la T.J. Ward's one-game suspension this year for something that happened 18 months ago. Nothing says "protect the shield" like punishing a player for something that happened over a year ago and everyone forgot about.

At this point I'm not going to begrudge the NFL for letting the legal process play itself out. This is what they should do 90% of the time with the Hardy and Big Ben cases as examples of reasonable exceptions.

 

[soxhop411]

http://twitter.com/NEPD_Loyko/status/655960873882660864

 

[RedOctober3829]

John Geiger, Revis' boy or was, went off in the last hour about him lying on 60 minutes. Says he's not anything without him and his team kept him on the field while Revis was in the club drinking and doing drugs.

 

[soxhop411]

 

[Ed Hillel]

Revis had a fall guy?

 

[GeorgeCostanza]

I'm assuming Geiger is pretty lit himself during this tirade judging by the insane amount of typos?

 

[luckiestman]

^do people really care about any of that noise with bragging rights in the AFC Beast on the line?

I like and respect Brady but he better get his Oline together cause the Jets are coming for him.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Now claiming account was hacked.

 

[Ed Hillel]

^do people really care about any of that noise with bragging rights in the AFC Beast on the line?

I like and respect Brady but he better get his Oline together cause the Jets are coming for him.

It's week 7, there are no bragging rights on the line for teams with serious goals. It should be a challenge, though. I would expect a 7 point game or so.

 

[soxhop411]

Now claiming account was hacked.

I call bull

 

[luckiestman]

1,2. Sheldon's coming for you

3,4 better block some more

5, 6 there's Revis with a pick six

7, 8 Better watch film late

9, 10 Brady sacked again


Edit: the proper response for this (for 80s horror fans) would be "in your dreams"

My job is to not get banned this week

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

1,2. Sheldon's coming for you

3,4 better block some more

5, 6 there's Revis with a pick six

7, 8 Better watch film late

9, 10 Brady sacked again

Just quoting this in case you delete it before morning.

 

[riboflav]

1,2. Sheldon's coming for you

3,4 better block some more

5, 6 there's Revis with a pick six

7, 8 Better watch film late

9, 10 Brady sacked again

 
Only a Jets fan would think this game is "super" important. 

 

[luckiestman]

Just quoting this in case you delete it before morning.

Put it on your fridge

 

[luckiestman]

 
Only a Jets fan would think this game is "super" important. 

If it ain't important, Bill better start Jimmy G and save Tom from what's coming.

 

[luckiestman]

Now claiming account was hacked.

Yeah, I'm gonna say that too if things get ugly on Sunday

 

[jon abbey]

Brandon Marshall has been very impressive so far, apart from a lost fumble today and that ridiculous lateral against the Eagles. He's the first Jet to have 4 100+ yard receiving games in a row since Don Maynard in 68-69.