2016 Broncos Thread: Elway or the Highway

Gunfighter 09 · Mar 7, 2016

soxhop411 said:
Mike Klis ‏@MikeKlis 8m8 minutes ago
Broncos offer to Osweiler: 3 years, more than $45 million http://www.9news.com/sports/broncos-offer-to-osweiler-3-years-more-than-45-million/69607526…

good lord thats ridiculous

What is ridiculous, that they only offered $15M in a world where Sam Bradford gets $18M per and Kurt Cousins gets almost $20M? Bill OBrien or Jeff Fischer will pay BrockO $16M per in half a heartbeat. You are misreading the QB market.

What are the Bronco's alternatives? I fucking love the idea of RG3 starting at QB for the Broncos next year. Are they going to outbid the Jets for Ryan Fitzpatrick? Are they going to trade half of their draft for Paxton Lynch, when they are losing 5-6 players to free agency and need to rebuild their depth? Osweiler has them over a barrel (complete with naked dude inside of it) and they have to pay him to beat the market. This is the cost of negotiating hard with Von Miller.

Super Nomario · Mar 7, 2016

Gunfighter 09 said:
What is ridiculous, that they only offered $15M in a world where Sam Bradford gets $18M per and Kurt Cousins gets almost $20M? Bill OBrien or Jeff Fischer will pay BrockO $16M per in half a heartbeat. You are misreading the QB market.

What are the Bronco's alternatives? I fucking love the idea of RG3 starting at QB for the Broncos next year. Are they going to outbid the Jets for Ryan Fitzpatrick? Are they going to trade half of their draft for Paxton Lynch, when they are losing 5-6 players to free agency and need to rebuild their depth? Osweiler has them over a barrel (complete with naked dude inside of it) and they have to pay him to beat the market. This is the cost of negotiating hard with Von Miller.

Exactly. I wrote about this for ITP last year: http://insidethepylon.com/nfl/long-form-editorial/2015/08/28/the-nfl-qb-merry-go-round/

Every time a mediocre / average QB gets a huge deal, there's a hue and cry that the guy is overpaid, but it's not like good quarterbacks grow on trees. What are the Broncos supposed to do, hand the keys to the fourth-best QB in this draft class, or a Nick Foles type?

jablo1312 · Mar 9, 2016

Donald Stephenson signs for 3 years 14 million (10 guaranteed).

Meanwhile, CJ Anderosn is apparently drawing a lot of free agent interest, and the Broncos's are ready to walk away from the Osweiler sweepstakes:

soxhop411 · Mar 9, 2016

Rand Getlin ‏@Rand_Getlin 3m3 minutes ago
I'm told QB Brock Osweiler has agreed to a deal in principle with the Houston #Texans.

Now who do they turn to?

tims4wins · Mar 9, 2016

Rumor has it Brock to Houston. If that is true Denver is going to join the Ravens as a recent champ to not even make the playoffs.

They should try to sign Fitz on a 1 or 2 year deal as a stopgap

soxhop411 · Mar 9, 2016

Adam Schefter ‏@AdamSchefter 1m1 minute ago
With Brock Osweiler off to Houston, RGIII is on Broncos' list of replacement quarterbacks, per source. Could be visiting Denver.

54thMA · Mar 9, 2016

soxhop411 said:
Rand Getlin ‏@Rand_Getlin 3m3 minutes ago
I'm told QB Brock Osweiler has agreed to a deal in principle with the Houston #Texans.

Now who do they turn to?

"And with the first pick in the 2017 NFL draft, the Denver Broncos select"....................

soxhop411 · Mar 9, 2016

James Palmer ‏@JamesPalmerTV 6m6 minutes ago
I'm told Osweiler was "very distant" during negotiations. showed Broncos he didn't want to come back. Elway refused to play top 10 QB money.

tims4wins · Mar 9, 2016

Smiling Joe Hesketh · Mar 9, 2016

Gunfighter 09 said:
What is ridiculous, that they only offered $15M in a world where Sam Bradford gets $18M per and Kurt Cousins gets almost $20M? Bill OBrien or Jeff Fischer will pay BrockO $16M per in half a heartbeat. You are misreading the QB market.

What are the Bronco's alternatives? I fucking love the idea of RG3 starting at QB for the Broncos next year. Are they going to outbid the Jets for Ryan Fitzpatrick? Are they going to trade half of their draft for Paxton Lynch, when they are losing 5-6 players to free agency and need to rebuild their depth? Osweiler has them over a barrel (complete with naked dude inside of it) and they have to pay him to beat the market. This is the cost of negotiating hard with Von Miller.

Nailed it. Brock got 4/$72 from Houston.

Smiling Joe Hesketh · Mar 9, 2016

soxhop411 said:
James Palmer ‏@JamesPalmerTV 6m6 minutes ago
I'm told Osweiler was "very distant" during negotiations. showed Broncos he didn't want to come back. Elway refused to play top 10 QB money.

Can you blame him (Osweiler)? He got benched after playing very well in favor of a dead guy. He sat for all those years getting no reps, and just when he did good work and played well down the stretch and into the playoffs, back to the bench he goes. He probably felt that Elway and the team didn't believe in his abilities.

jablo1312 · Mar 9, 2016

#7tormcoming

E5 Yaz · Mar 9, 2016

Along with everything SJH said, he also doesn't have to deal with the "the guy who followed Peyton" crap. He gets his money, gets to start, gets out oif the Manning 1 A.D. foolishness, and only has to worry about being better than Brian Hoyer

NortheasternPJ · Mar 9, 2016

If you're one of the two QB's on the market, why would he go back to Denver who benched him over a corpse?

There's a good chance he blows but fuck Denver if you're him.

It's sad the QB market is him and Fitzpatrick.

Slow Rheal · Mar 9, 2016

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
Can you blame him (Osweiler)? He got benched after playing very well in favor of a dead guy. He sat for all those years getting no reps, and just when he did good work and played well down the stretch and into the playoffs, back to the bench he goes. He probably felt that Elway and the team didn't believe in his abilities.

I agree with all of this except that he was not playing "very well". Compared to Manning he was out of this f-ing world, but to the rest of the league, he was maybe slightly above average (at best).

Smiling Joe Hesketh · Mar 9, 2016

Slow Rheal said:
I agree with all of this except that he was not playing "very well". Compared to Manning he was out of this f-ing world, but to the rest of the league, he was maybe slightly above average (at best).

For a guy getting his first real game action, and taking care of his team and getting them the number 1 seed in the playoffs, I'd say that's a tad more than "slightly above average." That's damn impressive.

Hey, maybe he's Scott Mitchell 2.0, but clearly Houston thinks he's better than that.

soxhop411 · Mar 9, 2016

Chris Harris ‏@ChrisHarrisJr 7m7 minutes ago
Shocked I thought Brock wanted to play with us lol

BigSoxFan · Mar 9, 2016

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
For a guy getting his first real game action, and taking care of his team and getting them the number 1 seed in the playoffs, I'd say that's a tad more than "slightly above average." That's damn impressive.

Hey, maybe he's Scott Mitchell 2.0, but clearly Houston thinks he's better than that.

Scott Mitchell 2.0 would probably be the best QB in Texans franchise history.

Sox and Rocks · Mar 9, 2016

Clearly, Elway has his work cut out for him. He's done a good job thus far as GM, but he also had the deck stacked in his favor when Manning fell in his lap, a once in a lifetime kind of QB acquisition given Manning's injury history and the Colts getting the #1 pick with a sure-thing QB coming out. It Manning isn't QB of the Broncos, do they land all of the free agents they acquired in recent years?

It will be interesting to see how he navigates this new situation.

Slow Rheal · Mar 9, 2016

SJH, I hear ya, and agree he did a good job. The league sucked for the most part QB-wise, and he was better than that for sure. Either way, I'm glad he's in HOU.

Gunfighter 09 · Mar 9, 2016

Flags fly forever, if you are a Bronco fan you take your 7 win season next year with a fucking smile. Elway built this team to peak in 2015/16 and nailed his objective.

soxhop411 said:
James Palmer ‏@JamesPalmerTV 6m6 minutes ago
I'm told Osweiler was "very distant" during negotiations. showed Broncos he didn't want to come back. Elway refused to play top 10 QB money.

The Red Sox really need to give Elway and the Bolens lessons on how to trash a guy on his way out the door.

The Broncos might get 3 compensatory 3rd round picks next year with Osweiler, Jackson and Travathian. Now that you can trade those, that is nice to have.

In terms of a starting QB, Kaepernick is going to cost a 3rd-5th round pick plus comes with a $12M cap number, though only one year of commitment. RG3 or Fitzpatrick cost no pick, but are still going to be expensive and Fitzpatrick will want 2-3 years of security, whereas RG3 will want an out back onto the market if he plays well. The Bengals will probably trade AJ McCarron, but not for anything less than something like a 2 and a 4. Unlike the other guys, McCarron is cheap and under contract through 2017.

There are four teams looking for a QB - St Louis, Denver, the Jets and Cleveland. Cleveland probably would want Fitzpatrick but not RGIII to caretake for Wentz/Goff. Of the other three teams, the Rams have a ton of cap room and the Jets and Broncos have little to none. All of this leads me to think that Cincy is going to get a surprisingly large price in picks for McCarron, and Denver seems like the best fit for me with their coming surplus of picks and limited salary cap room.

Super Nomario · Mar 9, 2016

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
For a guy getting his first real game action, and taking care of his team and getting them the number 1 seed in the playoffs, I'd say that's a tad more than "slightly above average." That's damn impressive.

Hey, maybe he's Scott Mitchell 2.0, but clearly Houston thinks he's better than that.

The Broncos got the #1 seed, but that was on their defense. The six complete games Osweiler started, they scored 123 points, and that includes two overtime games. Ultimately, the offense was just as bad at scoring as it was under Manning, though Osweiler turned the ball over less: http://insidethepylon.com/film-study/film-study-nfl/offense-film-study-nfl/2016/01/05/why-the-broncos-went-back-to-peyton-manning/

At the end of the day, there are guys who are so bad in their initial action that you know they will never be good, guys who are so good right away that you're pretty sure they will be good (though RGIII and Kaepernick suggest that even this may be a mirage), and guys in the middle, which is the vast majority. Osweiler's in the middle. He was below-average, but not so much so that he can't develop into something better.

Leather · Mar 9, 2016

Frankly, and not without some merit, Osweiler probably feels like he should have "Super Bowl Winning QB" on his resume right now, and it was taken from him for no good reason except the Broncos didn't give him a chance, even when one was warranted.

And who knows what kind of locker room situation he feels he'd be going back to. Even when he was starting QB, does anybody doubt that Manning was probably undermining him and running the show? Maybe he feels like any possibility of gaining the respect of the team (and now with a defense that will, perhaps rightfully, claim all the credit for success for the next year, at least), and emerging as a leader, has been shot to shit.

At the end of the day, there are guys who are so bad in their initial action that you know they will never be good, guys who are so good right away that you're pretty sure they will be good (though RGIII and Kaepernick suggest that even this may be a mirage), and guys in the middle, which is the vast majority. Osweiler's in the middle. He was below-average, but not so much so that he can't develop into something better.

True, but it goes beyond a few games last season. In 2014, when Manning was clearly starting his precipitous decline, Osweiler got to attempt a whopping 10 passes. He saw Manning's end coming, we all did, but they kept him on the bench instead of giving him some time to develop for the inevitable 2015 changing of the guard.

I mean, as GF09 says, the Broncos wouldn't change a thing. But I think Osweiler is justified, on a personal level, for feeling like he was set up to fail.

Super Nomario · Mar 9, 2016

drleather2001 said:
Frankly, and not without some merit, Osweiler probably feels like he should have "Super Bowl Winning QB" on his resume right now, and it was taken from him for no good reason except the Broncos didn't give him a chance, even when one was warranted.

And who knows what kind of locker room situation he feels he'd be going back to. Even when he was starting QB, does anybody doubt that Manning was probably undermining him and running the show? Maybe he feels like any possibility of gaining the respect of the team (and now with a defense that will, perhaps rightfully, claim all the credit for success for the next year, at least), and emerging as a leader, has been shot to shit.

True, but it goes beyond a few games last season. In 2014, when Manning was clearly starting his precipitous decline, Osweiler got to attempt a whopping 10 passes. He saw Manning's end coming, we all did, but they kept him on the bench instead of giving him some time to develop for the inevitable 2015 changing of the guard.

I mean, as GF09 says, the Broncos wouldn't change a thing. But I think Osweiler is justified, on a personal level, for feeling like he was set up to fail.

I see what you're saying, but I don't think Osweiler's leaving because he took it personally. The Broncos couldn't make him a serious offer until Manning retired, which only happened Sunday. At that point, why not wait a couple days and see what else is out there in a favorable market? The other major factor is that Elway couldn't hammer out a deal with Miller and had to franchise him. If he had worked something out, they could have kept the tag for Osweiler or Malik Jackson, or at least use it as leverage. Instead they lost both those guys.

Gunfighter 09 · Mar 9, 2016

If Olivier Vernon is worth more than $16M/per with over $52M guaranteed, Von Miller is going to be worth $20M per. I think he not only stays on the tag this year, but Denver tags him next year at the 20% increase. His $14M this year is 30% below his market value if not more. At this rate, Khalil Mack is going to get no less than $19 or 20M per next winter and Justin Houston's deal is going to look like a massive bargain.

E5 Yaz · Mar 9, 2016

Mike Klis ‏@MikeKlis 2h2 hours ago
Broncos figured Brock Osweiler didn't want to come back when he stopped returning phone calls to coaches/some teammates past 2 weeks.

Smiling Joe Hesketh · Mar 10, 2016

Fitzpatrick would probably fit the best for the next couple of years, but I can see them thinking they can get Kaepernick turned around.

Mooch · Mar 10, 2016

Losing Jackson and Travathan puts a major dent in this defense. Jackson was a key part of their interior line, getting a great push inside against the pass and Travathan is one of the best coverage linebackers in the league. Those are pretty valuable commodities in Wade's scheme and aren't easily replaced, especially against the Patriots with their quick passing game in the middle of the field.

steveluck7 · Mar 10, 2016

Mooch said:
Losing Jackson and Travathan puts a major dent in this defense. Jackson was a key part of their interior line, getting a great push inside against the pass and Travathan is one of the best coverage linebackers in the league. Those are pretty valuable commodities in Wade's scheme and aren't easily replaced, especially against the Patriots with their quick passing game in the middle of the field.

This is what I think a lot of the pundits are underestimating. the common refrain seems to be "They won the Superbowl with 2 below average QB's. Their defense won it before, why not again?" Even before the personnel losses, relying on a repeat of that defensive performance for another full season is risky.

Sox and Rocks · Mar 10, 2016

Denver was also incredibly lucky with injuries last year, especially on defense. IIRC, Ware missed 2-3 games, Ward missed one, and Talib missed 1-2. Otherwise, every other major contributor played every game. That is really amazing.

Now, they could get that kind of health again next year, but chances are their injuries will revert to the mean.

pappymojo · Mar 10, 2016

I feel like the Raiders continued improvement also adversely impacts the Broncos ability to repeat last years success. Of course, if they falter, ESPN will just point to their decline as further proof of Peyton's greatness.

soxhop411 · Mar 10, 2016

Michael Silver ‏@MikeSilver 16s16 seconds ago
Talks have intensified between the 49ers and Broncos re: Kaepernick. But Broncos are not the only suitor. More on @nflnetwork soon

Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheet 1m1 minute ago
To echo what @MikeSilver is saying, talks heating up. #Broncos are out front in trying to trade for Colin Kaepernick. 2 other teams involved

Mooch · Mar 10, 2016

Sounds like Miami is going to force the Broncos into a decision on matching CJ Anderson's offer. No word on $$/terms but this is shaping up to be a brutal offseason for the champs.

E5 Yaz · Mar 10, 2016

Hoodie Sleeves · Mar 10, 2016

Super Nomario said:
Every time a mediocre / average QB gets a huge deal, there's a hue and cry that the guy is overpaid, but it's not like good quarterbacks grow on trees. What are the Broncos supposed to do, hand the keys to the fourth-best QB in this draft class, or a Nick Foles type?

Right, but what's a better decision? Spending $15+ million a year on a guy who probably isn't much better than replacement level, or taking a risk on a guy who is probably replacement level (but might have a higher ceiling) and spending the $15m on improvements elsewhere?

If the Broncos can win with the shitshow that was Manning - they can win with anybody - so there's no sense in spending a ton of money for mediocrity. Take the current high performance floor your defense is giving you, and try to find somebody who might actually be good.

Edit: to clarify - my feeling is that the range of talent in the "isn't a franchise quarterback" market is significantly smaller than the range of contracts given out in the same market - I think the marked is decidedly non-linear in this segment, and some teams are paying drastically higher rates for performance than others.

In baseball you see guys in the 1 WAR range sign for anything from minor league deals, to getting $10M. Its a bit like that.

Super Nomario · Mar 10, 2016

Hoodie Sleeves said:
Right, but what's a better decision? Spending $15+ million a year on a guy who probably isn't much better than replacement level, or taking a risk on a guy who is probably replacement level (but might have a higher ceiling) and spending the $15m on improvements elsewhere?

I don't think there's a clear-cut answer to this question, to be honest. Every season, we see NFL teams have their seasons ruined by awful quarterback or backup quarterback play. One major difference is the amount of friction that comes with bringing in a new signal-caller - he's got to learn the playbook, his teammates, etc. It's not like baseball where if you don't get replacement-level performance you can just send your second baseman down to AAA and call up another one and plug him in the next day.

Hoodie Sleeves said:
If the Broncos can win with the shitshow that was Manning - they can win with anybody - so there's no sense in spending a ton of money for mediocrity. Take the current high performance floor your defense is giving you, and try to find somebody who might actually be good.

That works is you have a historically good defense like Denver had, but the smart money is on some regression in 2016. The 2001 Ravens were still a very good defense - fourth in points, second in yards - but that was a whopping 100 points worse than the 2000 squad. The Broncos will likely have a terrific D again, but they almost certainly won't be as successful unless they get more from the offense.

RedOctober3829 · Mar 10, 2016

86spike said:
I don't think Denver should pay CJ much, so if Miami wants to give him a poison pill deal that Elway will have trouble matching, they should let him go. He had some good games, but he struggled as well and had injury issues this year. I don't get too attached to RBs. So many can only produce for a few years at a top level. Moving on and drafting a new RB doesn't bother me much at all.

It's a 4 year/$18 million offer sheet with at least $10 million of it guaranteed. I wouldn't think Denver would match it.

Maximus · Mar 10, 2016

Elway won't match that.

tims4wins · Mar 10, 2016

Elway gets credit for all he did over the last four years, but it was relatively easy to just throw wads of cash at guys like Ware, Ward, Talib, Peyton, etc. Now he is experiencing the other side of the coin - guys are leaving to go play for losers like Jacksonville and Miami. If Denver is going to contend any time soon Elway will certainly earn it

NortheasternPJ · Mar 10, 2016

And he just had an asset that was worth $18 million a year under his control and got nothing for it. That's a bad deal.

Elway had one goal. Win with Manning and he did that. But the Brock thing is a mess.

j-man · Mar 10, 2016

my 02 cents denver got burned about oz but i think the week 17 beaching seal his fate he was never coming back here once he got beached

i hate to lose CJ but in kubiak sys most rb are interchangeable i ex to get A Foster or A Morris RB or a high rated rook

unless we panic and get kap i am going to throw something out there Jimmy G in 2018 but i wouild pass on most QB offer TJ Yates a 1 or 2 year deal

j-man · Mar 10, 2016

about the afc west it couild be a 4-team race where the winner is 9-7 and 4th place is 7-9

if NE does not win the AFC next year its only because brady gronk got hurt or brady plays like manning 2014 2nd haif

E5 Yaz · Mar 10, 2016

86spike said:
BTW, rumor mill is strong on Kaepernick to Denver.

What would be headed back to SF?

E5 Yaz · Mar 10, 2016

Michael Silver ‏@MikeSilver 2h2 hours ago
To clarify: No deal yet between 49ers and Broncos for Kaepernick. Browns still in it. Not likely to happen tonight but fluid situation.

2016 Broncos Thread: Elway or the Highway

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