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2017 AL Wild Card Chase

Discussion in 'MLB Discussion' started by E5 Yaz, Aug 6, 2017.

  1. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    It's such an odd chase this season. In the National League, the Brewers (who are keeping pace with the Cubs) are third in the hunt, 5.5 games out of a wild card spot spot behind the D'backs and Rockies.

    But that 5.5 games is how far the Tigers are out of a spot in the AL -- and Detroit is 10th in the race.

    As I type this, the Royals and Mariners are about to start an important second game of their doubleheader. If Seattle wins, they'll be ties with the Rays for the second spot behind the Yankees.

    So, our task at the moment is to determine who is a contender and who is a pretender for the WC game. As we start this thread, this by definition does not include the division-leading Red Sox, Indians and Astros.

    Front-runners
    Yankees 59-51

    Rays 58-55
    Royals 56-53

    Mariners 57-55

    What are these guys doing here?
    Orioles 55-56
    Angels 55-56

    Barely breathing
    Rangers 53-57
    Twins 52-56

    Reputation only
    Blue Jays 52-59
    Tigers 51-59

    If any of the bottom four teams here is capable of putting something together, I'd say it was the Blue Jays -- although losses like Sunday's 7-6 defeat in Houston, on a two-out, three-run rally by the Astros, don't help.

    The Twins are fading, the Tigers are showing their age and the Rangers just weren't able to put something together this year.

    The Orioles and Angels are just mysteries to me. Baltimore has been playing well, and they have guys who have been there before. But their pitching is a mess. And I have no idea what the Trouts are at this stage.

    I think the Rays are the thinnest team in the top tier. If luck goes their way, they could survive. The Royals have games in-hand over the others -- and play in the weakest division -- but Salvador Perez's injury could be a crushing blow if it lingers too long. That leaves the Mariners, who are flying under the radar. If I had to pick, I'd pick Seattle to survive this race.

    The Yankees/Red Sox division-loser is a lock.
     
  2. Buzzkill Pauley

    Buzzkill Pauley Member SoSH Member

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    Mariners have a tough row to hoe, especially with so many remaining games against Houston.

    8x OAK
    3x ATL
    9x TEX
    6x BAL
    10x LAA
    3x TBR
    3x MFY
    3x CLE
    6x HOU

    But if they beat the O's and Rays, and make hay against the A's and Rangers it's possible, even if they split the remaining games with the Trouts.


    But I think the Royals are still the most likely to sneak into the second Wild Card.

    9x CWS
    3x OAK
    6x DET
    3x TOR
    7x MIN
    4x STL
    3x TBR
    1x MFY
    10x CLE
    3x ARI
    3x COL

    There are some tough interleague schedule remaining, but importantly, all 10 of them are home games. So many games against Cleveland means those are make-or-break.
     
  3. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    That Royals schedule is saved by the 16 games against the White Sox and Twins.

    Reading between the lines shows that the Rays have 6 games remaining against the two teams they're battling with
     
  4. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    Yeah Royals getting 22 left vs CWS / DET / MIN gives them a chance to rack up some wins
     
  5. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    The Orioles got back to .500 mark Monday and have gained five games on KC over the past 10 games.
     
  6. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    Orioles remaining schedule I think:

    5 = LAA (2 away; 3 home)
    7 = OAK (4 away; 3 home)
    6 = SEA (3 away; 3 home)
    6 = BOS (3 away; 3 home)
    7 = TOR (3 away; 4 home)
    7 = NYY (4 away; 3 home)
    3 = CLE (3 away; 0 home)
    7 = TAM (3 away; 4 home)
    2 = PIT (2 away; 0 home)

    If I'm counting correctly, that's 50 games of which 27 are away and 23 and which 25 games are against LAA, SEA, NYY, and TAM, who are right now their most direct wild card competition.

    The way Duquette sees things is that the AL is pretty evenly matched (run differential notwithstanding) and the Os basically hold their fate in their hands. IF they can get some starting pitching - particularly Gausman keeps up his good pitching and one or more from Tillman, Ubaldo, and Miley are league average, they will hit their way into the wild card.

    I can understand if they are looking for a miracle as I'm sure Angelos would love to get into the World Series once in his life.
     
  7. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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  8. DeadlySplitter

    DeadlySplitter Member SoSH Member

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    Royals are set to be completely swept in a home & home series with the Cards and fall to .500. they are falling apart, yet the 2nd WC could really be a 82-84 win team this season, so there is time.

    SEA & LAA have a big 4 game series starting tonight as well.
     
  9. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    28,959
    James Paxton left tonight with a possible pec strain, but he seems to think it's not serious. Unless I'm forgetting someone, he seems like easily the best SP who NY could face in the wild card game (if they make it obv), definitely hoping that doesn't happen.
     
  10. Soxfan in Fla

    Soxfan in Fla Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah. Hopefully they collapse and don't even make the wild card game.
     
  11. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Seattle blows a 5-1 lead at home to the Angels and lose 6-5, which means the second wild card team is now....

    yes, the Minnesota Twins, the same team that traded their closer less than two weeks ago because they thought they were out of it.
     
  12. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Beyond the Yankees, the only other team with a positive run differential is the Rangers, who are three games behind the Twins and four games under .500
     
  13. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    The Twins come back from 5-0 down and go up 11-6, then give up 6 unanswered in the final three innings to lose 12-11 to Detroit. Coupled with the TB loss, that means that the winner of tonight's LAA/SEA game will be in the second wild card spot going into tomorrow.
     
  14. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    And, it's the Angels.

    How the heck ...?
     
  15. simplicio

    simplicio Well-Known Member Gold Supporter

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    Mike Trout's back, and Andrelton Simmons turned into a good hitter this year to go along with being the best fielder in baseball.
     
  16. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    FWIW Fangraphs projects 82 wins for the Angels and Rays, 81 for the Royals and Mariners, and 80 for the O's and Twins. The Angels also have the highest playoff odds with 27%, then TB with 25%, KC 22%, Twins 18%, Mariners 16%, O's 11%, and Rangers 9.5% .

    There is a shot at a playoff team being under .500 for the first time ever. The Padres won their division with a record of 82-80, in 2007 and the Mets were 82-79 in 1973.

    Though the 1994 Rangers led the AL West with a record of 52-62 when the strike hit.
     
  17. Delonte James Jr.

    Delonte James Jr. Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Granted, this qualifies with a bit of an asterisk, given the season split and wonky methodology overall, but the 1981 Royals would like a word with this statement since they finished an overall 50-53.

    Also, don't you mean the 2005 Padres with 82-80 (and were -42 in run differential)? The 2007 iteration finished with 89 wins, 1.5 games division leading Arizona, lost out in a crazy Game 163 with the Rockies for NL Wild Card rights.
     
  18. Sam Ray Not

    Sam Ray Not Member SoSH Member

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    Fwiw, Fangraphs gives the Yankees a 30.4% shot of missing the playoffs (and the Red Sox 0.9%).
     
  19. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    Oops - ya missed that.
     
  20. nvalvo

    nvalvo Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    I think that's about right, especially with 3 SP on the DL. Sonny Gray helps a lot, but that's hard for any team to overcome.
     
  21. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    It still means they have a 69.6% chance of making the playoffs
     
  22. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    I don't think Fangraphs actually factors in personnel changes, health and new guys traded for and promoted (which is a huge flaw obviously), but Tanaka and Sabathia are both supposed to be back pretty quickly.
     
  23. NobodyInteresting

    NobodyInteresting lurker

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    They do. Projections include expectations of playing time for the actual personnel at the club, updated daily(ish)
     
  24. shawnrbu

    shawnrbu Member SoSH Member

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    After a sweep of the Tigers, the Rangers get to host the White Sox for 4. Remarkably, the Rangers are only 1.5 games behind LAAA for the second wild card. Texas still has 10 games head to head with the Angels, including 4 at the Big A starting on Monday.
     

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