And fortunately neither this season nor next season are contract years so there's plenty of time to move him before anything blows up.
2017 Celtics Offseason: News and General Discussion
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Yes, but his trade value is highest now so it will be interesting to see how the timing plays out. The Celtics will always be able to find a taker for Jae so that's not the concern.
If Hayward can guard 1's (Brad has indicated he thinks he can, but let's see it all play out) then there is plenty of time for Crowder.
I mean, look, I hope JB plays in such a way that denying him 30 minutes a game is a mistake. I hope Tatum is a guy who gets the NBA immediately and doesn't have a ho hum rookie season. And I hope Odeljeye can be the next Jae Crowder. But those are all hopes and there isn't a lot of indication that they will become reality. And since there is no need to force the issue now, I'm not seeing the Celtics getting involved in a "dump Crowder because he's surplus" trade quite yet.
I mean, look, I hope JB plays in such a way that denying him 30 minutes a game is a mistake. I hope Tatum is a guy who gets the NBA immediately and doesn't have a ho hum rookie season. And I hope Odeljeye can be the next Jae Crowder. But those are all hopes and there isn't a lot of indication that they will become reality. And since there is no need to force the issue now, I'm not seeing the Celtics getting involved in a "dump Crowder because he's surplus" trade quite yet.
This is where I guess I'll have to disagree, they just added a full time player at his position and then a guy that's going to getting considerable burn at the PF spot. And they've already indicated that they're going to be expanding Brown's minutes at the SG spot.
My guess is that Smart slots into Bradley's playing time while Brown starts moving into Smart's. Crowder is going to be the one that feels the pinch due to his physical limitations and the reality that Hayward will be playing 30+ minutes a night at his old spot.
So my guess is that Boston is going to get out in front of the situation and look to horn themselves in on the Irving action to extract a pound of flesh.
I agree with Finn. I think that Hayward and Crowder start at two wing spots (IT and Horford locked into two more starting slots. The 5th starter will likely have a lot of different people filling it over the year.
I'm still confused by that decision to be honest. He sure wasn't going to win any jump balls, didn't play much, and wasn't very effective when he did. I was thinking it was some kind of strategy/chess move to see how the Cavs would react to one thing or another. Do you think Amir was started for chemistry?
This team is most likely a better team with Jae Crowder on it than without Jae Crowder on it. I am not sure we should give a shit if Crowder is unhappy with only playin 25 minutes a game and not starting. Nearly every non-starter in the league probably thinks they should be starting. That drive is necessary.
I agree with Chad here as well. I think they start IT, Hayward at the 2, Crowder at the 3, with Horford starting at the 4 with Baynes/Zizic at the 5, or less likely Morris at the 4 and Horford at 5.
Either way, I'd be really surprised if Jae doesn't start and play a similar role/minutes as last year.
I'm happy to have people agree with me, but in the interest of full disclosure, i am not in fact chad finn (he posts here under his full name).
Whoops, my bad. Didn't pay enough attention to who was quoted, just saw Finn.
I agree with finnVT!
Not necessarily, Crowder strikes me as the kind of guy who moves at the deadline. Both his skill set and his contract make him most valuable to a cap constrained team with playoff aspirations. The ideal trade partner would be a team on the cusp desperate to make the playoffs.
However, you only make such a deal if Tatum and Brown exceed expectations and look like they can handle significant (non-garbage time) playoff minutes.
Last year's Boston Celtics had 5 players average 30+ mpg. Those were IT, Bradley, Crowder, Horford, and Smart. They added Hayward and dropped Bradley. The logical assumption is that the other guys more or less continue to play the same number of minutes since there isn't anyone else on the roster who seems to be in a clear position to take playing time from any of those 5. Of the 5, Smart is probably the most vulnerable from a playing time standpoint, not someone who is likely to see a greater than 10% bump in his minutes (unless his shooting changes). Morris and Baynes will take over the Amir/Olynyk 40 mpg. Brown can earn his extra minutes out of the 15 mpg Jerebko was getting, although there is definitely going to be a real battle between he, Rozier, and Tatum because there's only 40-50 mpg to share among the three of them. None of those guys is close to good enough to take minutes from any of our core 5 players and none of them have the size to take the minutes that will be going to Morris/Baynes. If Zivic or Yabusele end up earning minutes, it'll come from those two vets. That's certainly possible, but doesn't really alter the rest of the picture much.
In short, it is a mistake to see Hayward "replacing" Crowder. Wing positions are fungible and Hayward is far more likely to be "replacing" Bradley. There's a reason we sent out Bradley to make room for Hayward and kept Crowder.
While this an accurate statement what nighthob and myself are guessing is that Crowder and his agent came forward and asked to be traded which is why we currently have 16 guaranteed contracts for a 15-man roster.
If I'm Jae and the Celtics just signed one guy who was a crowd favorite while still playing on another team to play my position and drafted another guy 3rd to play my smallball 2nd unit minutes I'm going to see the writing on the wall as to how the organization (rightly) feels about me as a starting 3 for a team with championship aspirations.
There's also this.
In short, Crowder's role in the offense last year was as a spot up shooter and as a cutter. He does those things well - last year, he was slightly better than Hayward in those roles. What he isn't is a creator, for himself or for others.
Hayward can create for himself or others and, unlike Crowder, has incredible offensive versatility. And despite the height difference, there is a lot of role similiarity between Heyward and Bradley:
Rather than being the guy who drives Crowder out of town, Hayward is going to be the guy who gets Crowder a lot of open looks from behind the arc.
According to the internets, Crowder's agent represents Dennis Smith and exactly zero other than NBA players (which might explain Crowder's current contract). So even if Jae and his agent have made a trade demand, Danny can take his sweet time pondering that request.
The team, or at the very least its coach, feels that the term "3" is an anachronism. Stevens has divided players into three groups -- ballhandlers, wings, and bigs -- where the division between 2's, 3's, and 4's has essentially been erased. Look at the questions he fielded when Tatum was drafted. What position will he play? Doesn't matter. Who will he cover? Whoever. Regardless of Gordon Hayward, Jae Crowder will start and finish games for the Celtics this year because he is one of the four best players on the roster. He's not going to be moved to clear space for Shane Larkin and certainly not for a second round pick.
While I'm on your side in the Crowder assessment, HRB isn't basing his opinion off of strict positions. I think his point (and nighthob's since they are carrying each other's water on this one) is that much of the time Crowder is on the floor the Celtics already have someone better than him sitting on the bench to do whatever job he's doing on a particular possession, not strictly that he's a 3 on both ends of the floor. I personally still think because of the constant swtiches and defending the PnR in the modern NBA his versatility is worth a lot. Obviously I'm also well above the median SoSH poster on my opinion of him as a player. Personally I think in all but the times where Brad wants the most length on the court he fits into the rotation.
While it is easy to drum up situations where Crowder is overmatched, the reality is that these situations didn't come to fruition very often, based on the actual results of NBA games - yes including playoff games. Because of his role his bad shooting nights make him look useless on that end. I get it. I think it's kind of dumb and flies in the face of the thinking of the coach, but I get it.
While it is easy to drum up situations where Crowder is overmatched, the reality is that these situations didn't come to fruition very often, based on the actual results of NBA games - yes including playoff games. Because of his role his bad shooting nights make him look useless on that end. I get it. I think it's kind of dumb and flies in the face of the thinking of the coach, but I get it.
Crowder is a terrific role player. Like Smart, he has tremendous versatility on the defensive end (I seem to recall him being tasked with covering Wall a bit in that series).
However, as with any team, in any sport, role players have to embrace their roles to be a net positive to the team. When a role player feels like he should be more than just that supporting role, he can become a distraction or a negative and as such his value can quickly plummet.
With all the changes in the roster, can/will JC (and MS for that matter) continue to be the dirt dogs of this team without complaint? I think we won't know that until mid-season so I think that neither one gets moved this off-season
However, as with any team, in any sport, role players have to embrace their roles to be a net positive to the team. When a role player feels like he should be more than just that supporting role, he can become a distraction or a negative and as such his value can quickly plummet.
With all the changes in the roster, can/will JC (and MS for that matter) continue to be the dirt dogs of this team without complaint? I think we won't know that until mid-season so I think that neither one gets moved this off-season
Crowder is the logical guy to be moved based on redundancy and his potential unhappiness about his role. But that's gotta be weighed against his current value to the team as well his significantly below market rate contract.
Honestly my hunch is that Ainge would be happy to move him if another team valued Crowder in the same range as the Celtics do. But the problem is that the Celtics value him very highly, and probably higher than a significant majority of the teams in the league.
Unless another team steps up and offers a trade based on what Ainge things Crowder is worth, I would be surprised if anything happens. Ange isn't going to dump Crowder for a useless package just to trade him unless something really drastic happens to team chemistry during the season.
Honestly my hunch is that Ainge would be happy to move him if another team valued Crowder in the same range as the Celtics do. But the problem is that the Celtics value him very highly, and probably higher than a significant majority of the teams in the league.
Unless another team steps up and offers a trade based on what Ainge things Crowder is worth, I would be surprised if anything happens. Ange isn't going to dump Crowder for a useless package just to trade him unless something really drastic happens to team chemistry during the season.
I don't think the team thinks of it as redundancy. The brain trust thinks of this as maximal versatility. And frankly, Brown and Tatum are redundant only in theory to Crowder right now. I sincerely doubt either of them cuts into Crowder's minutes next year, because I'd be surprised if either of them are anywhere close to as good of a defender or shooter as Crowder next year.
I think it remains an open question if Crowder starts, but I wouldn't be surprised if he did. The Celtics have shown time and again that they care more about spreading the floor and versatile defenders than they do rebounding -- and as bad as Thomas-Smart-Hayward-Crowder-Horford would be on the boards, it would fit the bill.
This team is going to play small a ton. And that means Crowder is going to play a ton. Morris may start -- hell, both of them might start -- depending on match-ups, but Crowder will certainly be on the floor in crunch time.
Agree with your post but I'd be shocked if Marcus starts on opening night, even if he has improved his shooting. Not because he's not starter quality but because he brings so much cohesion to the second unit.
My prediction is IT, Hayward, Jae, Morris, and Horford.
I don't mean to imply Crowder isn't versatile or that Crowder can be entirely replaced by someone on the roster right now. He makes the team better and I don't expect him to be traded at a discount.
But if you look at the best players on the team (I include Crowder in there), the team has other versatile players who may be able to pick up a decent chunk of the slack if Crowder is gone (Hayward, Morris, Tatum, Brown, Nader, Ojeleye). Of course the rookie/2nd year guys are wild cards to different degrees, but at least the team has 2 established young vets and other promising players to compete for minutes there. If the team traded IT or Horford for example, I don't think we could say the same thing.
Being more redundant than some of the other good players on the team doesn't mean he is useless (or anything close to that). But if Danny can turn Crowder into someone equivalently valuable with a different skill set (i.e. rebounding), I think he would consider it. Unfortunately I'm skeptical that trade will present itself.
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I'll hazard that Crowder is a Celtic until the 2019 trading deadline. He's almost a prototypical 3-and-D guy: high-efficiency, low-usage, great on team defense (as reflected in his RPMs), can guard anybody between 6'2" and 6'10", and has the Charles Oakley Team Enforcer glare to him. He's a guy you want on your side in a rumble.
And besides, Brown is barely 21 and Tatum is barely 20. They've got a long way to grow. Crowder might be around until the 2020 trading deadline.
The wild card is chemistry, to be sure. He could force his way out of town, but if he does so, I don't think it will be for lack of minutes. He'll be getting as many minutes as his not-infrequently-sprained ankles can support.
And besides, Brown is barely 21 and Tatum is barely 20. They've got a long way to grow. Crowder might be around until the 2020 trading deadline.
The wild card is chemistry, to be sure. He could force his way out of town, but if he does so, I don't think it will be for lack of minutes. He'll be getting as many minutes as his not-infrequently-sprained ankles can support.
I think you're right on this, unless Rozier makes a leap as a ball-handler and defender.
I think our valuations of Crowder are more different than you think. And that's fine! Reasonable minds can disagree. But I think this new iteration of Crowder that can shoot is one of the better forwards in the league. And I understand in some minds that makes me unreasonably high on him, but I don't think people would disagree when I say that I don't think Tatum, Brown, Nader or Ojeleye could step in and take most of his minutes, and have the team be as succesfull, because none of them play team defense, or generate steals/TOV, anywhere nearly as effectively as Crowder does. Like Sprowl said, he's a glue guy in the best way.
IT, Hayward, Horford, and Crowder will start. The 5th will be Smart, Brown, or Baynes (in an Amir type 15-20 minute role).
It's certainly possible you are higher on Crowder than I am, but that would be tough. I'm a bigger fan than 90% of SoSH I have a feeling, and value his skill set a ton. I don't think he is an All-Star (so if you think that then yes, you like him more), but I think he is a really good player and on a very team friendly contract.
My point is that we have accumulated a lot of wing talent. That doesn't make Crowder useless or expendable, but it makes him not necessarily the best use of a player of his value. We don't need the young guys to step right in and replace him, but with Hayward and Morris in the fold, I think some of those young guys can be helpful complementing what we already have.
Put another way, if you looked at the roster minus Crowder, what position and skill set would be most lacking? To me, not a good versatile wing who can shoot 3s and defend multiple positions. Therefore, if you could turn Crowder into a player of equal value at a different spot I would try to do that. But I think we (and the team) value Crowder higher than some around the league so that kind of swap may be challenging.
Every team's fans overvalue their own role players. Role players are really hard to judge as well. Any role player is going to look better on GSW than on the Lakers.
I'm with you on IT, Horford, Crowder and Hayward and think the 5th will be Brown or Smart because someone has to defend the point.
I think the test of Steven's 'position-less' basketball will present on the defensive end. I find it much easier to imagine all our 6'7"+ wings slashing and kicking and shooting threes than it is to imagine Hayward staying in front of a quick 2 while also helping out on whichever point guard is giving IT fits.
Would it cause people to light torches and grab pitchforks if I ask about a Smart/Hayward/Crowder/Horford/Baynes starting lineup with IT and JB first off the bench? Probably it would.
In any case I can't wait for this season to start, and that was even before the grenade went off in the Cav's locker-room...
I will be interested to see how this guy does against actual NBA players. Physically the guy is not impressive, yet he seemed crafty enough to be effective at times. His bent over handles appeared, at least to me, to be of a kind that would lend itself to opposing NBA-level defenders getting lots of steals off of him.
Right, and this is what gives him a lot of value. If you're Cleveland, would you rather have Crowder or Korver as your 3&D guy?
This is what I expect Boston's calls to Cleveland have been about, not acquiring Irving, but looking to extract a pound of flesh by facilitating a trade. Most teams in the Irving Hunt would be offering more nebulous assets in a trade scenario. And the Cavs would probably clearly prefer Crowder (especially as the extra F would make it easier for them to see what they can get for K-Love).
It's an interesting thought. The Cavs are over cap, but if they do it all in one deal, they could get Bledsoe + Crowder for Irving, with the PHO 1st going to BOS (or the 1-7 protected MIA pick they own). I have a hard time seeing PHO getting out of the lottery even with Irving in the West right now. That would be great value for the C's, but pretty counterproductive to their chances this year.
What is this other spot? Unless you're suggesting they could trade Crowder for an equal value 5, there really isn't another spot because Jae is in the Celtics bunch with Hayward/Morris/Brown/Tatum (with some Horford and Smart minutes) that will fill the 2-4 spots. They're set at the 1 with Isaiah/Smart. Unless you're trading Jae for a 5, you're not filling a different spot, you're just adding a different name into the five guys in the 2-4 mix.
I don't understand the fascination with shoving Jae off the team just because they acquired another wing. Wings are like starting pitchers now, you can't have enough of them. It's one thing if you're packaging Jae with other assets to acquire a borderline star player, that I get. Moving him because you're worried there's a logjam at his spot doesn't make sense to me.
That's just the thing -- the Warriors and Spurs have been showing us year after year how important it is to spread the floor and to play switchy, athletic team defense on the other end, and now we want to sell off Crowder for some rebounding (which Danny and co have outright told us they don't care much for) so Tatum and Brown can get lost on defensive rotations, bite on pump-fakes, and shoot 33% from 3.
I think Crowder and Hayward and Morris can all play at the level of the bolded right now, and if you have all 3 of those guys, perfect -- but I don't believe Tatum or Brown are there yet.
I hope Tatum and Brown have bright futures in the NBA, but I'm not willing to bet it will be next year.
To make it simple, I'd look at it as 3 "positions" as has been alluded to before; ball-handler, wing, big. Wing may be the most important of the 3 in Brad's system, but they all matter.
If you look at a Crowder-less roster, I don't see how you can conclude a wing is the position of most need. Our best ball handler was knocked out of the playoffs with a chronic hip condition. Our best big is 31 years old. Unless the team has a super high opinion of Smart/Rozier and Baynes/Zizic, in my opinion Crowder's value could be better used elsewhere for the upcoming year.
Again, that doesn't mean I think they have to deal him or should make an uneven trade to even out the roster. But I do think it's worth keeping up on the Crowder trade market in case something useful develops.
Celtics are in a very good spot here. Ainge can basically go fishing every time a big trade surfaces and see what he can get for Jae. I'm doubtful that he'll find enough value to pull the trigger on anything but Crowder can basically fit into almost every deal so the possibilities are endless.
I look at it this way too. And I believe they are set at ball-handler, AKA the 1. So, unless the trade is for a big, AKA a 5, you're just trading Jae for another wing.
Wing isn't just the most important, it's the most important by a lot. I think his most common lineup will be big-wing-wing-wing-ball-handler. Seems like having a lot of the type that fills three spots on the floor is better than having an extra of a type that fills one spot on the floor.
Except IT has a serious hip injury we know little about and his contract is up. Smart isn't a starting PG and Rozier looks promising but probably isn't either.
There's not an obvious 1-1 deal for a 5, but there could be a creative solution to find one.
Well I'd be nervous about ITs hip (even if he doesn't miss long chunks of the year he has a chronic condition that could flare at any time) and am not that high on Smart or Rozier being the best ball handlers on the team.
I agree wing is the position you want the most depth at, but I think we are potentially pretty thin at ball handler and big if anything goes wrong with IT or Horford (the 2 most likely players to get hurt IMO). I'd also be a little nervous about playing only 1 big for the majority of the season, especially if that 1 big a mediocre rebounder like Horford.
If you're gonna overflow anywhere, wing is definitely the place to do it. And if Hayward gets hurt or Brown/Tatum stink you would be certainly be sad not to have Crowder in the mix. But like I said before, if another team values Crowder as much as we do, I think there might be a worthy trade out there. We shall see.
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Can't imagine any scenario where Isaiah currently nursing a hip injury has to do with trading Crowder. Are you suggesting trading him for a future point guard? If you for some reason wanted to do that, now certainly doesn't seem like the time. Pretty clear they're going with Isaiah at point, and since they've ruled out surgery I'm not that worried he's going to miss significant time. Seems wasteful to trade a starter for a future point guard that may never be needed.
And if for some reason people feel the need to move a wing for a center, seems to me the guy that would be the odd man out in that scenario is Morris, not Crowder. Can't see too many lineups that make sense with newfound shiny big-Horford-Morris. Certainly less than newfound shiny big-Horford-Crowder.
I'm not worried about ball-handler at all. If anything happened to IT, Hayward acted as point guard for Utah a lot. Between him and Smart, I think they'd be fine bringing the ball up, and those two and Horford can initiate the offense. If Horford gets hurt, they're screwed whether they trade Jae for a big or not. You're not going to find anyone available for Jae that can come close to what Horford gives them.
Either way, I wouldn't trade a starter at wing for insurance in case of injury at big or ball-handler.
I'm suggesting they aren't "set" at ball handler when their primary piece there has a serious injury (btw, radsoxfan is actually, like, a doctor, so maybe if he's worried, we all should be), is one of the worst defenders in the league, has been exposed as being able to be bullied because he's tiny and is looking for a max contract he doesn't deserve.
Also, to extrapolate, that this team's window hasn't arrived yet as they aren't getting by Cleveland (even if they move Irving) until Lebron leaves in a year or GS for at least a few years until they break up, which rides us out of the contract period that Crowder is under. So, while he is a nice piece, he's not making much of a difference for Boston and while he is a nominal starter, he's a complimentary piece that is best used as an asset. Whether that be for draft picks, young players or to fill a more thin position than wing, the best option is most likely to move him, even before we get into talking about him being a malcontent or not.
Also, ruling out surgery =/= not missing significant time. It doesn't even mean it's the right decision or one the team made. Heading into a contract year for your one big pay day doesn't exactly inspire one with best long term decisions.
I think you are part right, part wrong. When you have only 3 ballhandlers, one of whom is coming back from a hip injury, that's cause for concern. Even if IT is ready to go, they are one injury away from a problem. There are PG-type things that Smart and Rozier haven't done yet (at least not in the NBA).
That said, you are right about part of it - a lot of the offense will run through Horford and Hayward no matter who they play at PG.
FWIW, IT has an abnormal shape of his hip that leads to progressive tearing of his labrum and progressive cartilage loss (early arthritis basically). Just because he isn't getting surgery, that doesn't mean that he is fine. It just means the surgical options are honestly not that great either and we don't have very good treatments at this point. Without seeing his X-rays /MRI I won't pretend to know how severe the issue is, but in a general sense it's hard to not be at least moderately worried considering the issue knocked him out for the playoffs.
On the big man front, if another team valued Crowder as much as we probably both do, (above average NBA starter I'm guessing?) turning that player into an equivalent big would probably be a good idea. In that case, a Horford injury would still suck, but might not sink the team.
Crowder is under team control as long as anyone on the team outside of the rookies. If you are looking to move anyone because you're afraid of Golden State, then you're moving everyone, not just Crowder.
And couldn't disagree more that he's more valuable as an asset to flip for futures rather than a starter now. Last year was pretty fun. This year should be pretty fun. There's no shame in being like the sixth best team in the league and giving it your best shot. You can't keep running and hiding. It's not like Boston is a veteran team nearing the end of their run. They're good now, and with the Brooklyn/Lakers/Kings shadow tank, they have young assets now and more on the way.
There's no reason to trade a starter for futures right now. And again, if you're worried about IT in the future, you can still trade Crowder for your theoretical point guard of the future later. You got plenty of time with Crowder. Whatever young guy you want to flip Crowder for will play less than Crowder will.
I'm not even an Isaiah fan, I've wanted the Celtics to trade him. But I wouldn't ever trade Crowder for a guy I hope can replace IT down the line someday. If that's the plan, rather than trade Crowder, why wouldn't you wait for Isaiah to show he's healthy then trade IT for an IT replacement?
Kinds of related to this (as far as what positions to bolster) - who would you least like to lose for the whole year due to injury? For me Horford is easily #1. GH may even be 2 over last year's MVP candidate...