I'm not sure what you mean by a great player.I do not understand why so many Celtics fans have a hard time believing that Crowder is a great player.
If this isn't your signature within 48 hours, I think you should be banned."Simulation is like masturbation, it serves an important purpose and is basically harmless, just never confuse it for the real thing."
Agree that Kyrie/Hayward are both really strong pick and roll ball handlers, and that Horford's a solid roll/pop guy.One of the things I love about the additions of Hayward and Irving is just how much trouble they're going to give teams with the pick and roll.
The team now has two guys starting (rather than just IT) who can not only effectively run the pick and roll, but who you can't even think about going under a on-ball screen on. Horford is a huge advantage in this respect, too: there's no doubt that Gobert and Thompson are both good screeners (and Irving had Love, of course), but there's little they can do post-screen. Horford's toolbox is full, in comparison: he can pop, and if he rolls, he's as good a passer as they come.
I'm maybe harping on this a little too much, but the addition of Morris is also hugely useful: Morris will be a much more versatile guy to kick it out to than Amir, or even Crowder for that matter. Last year seems like it was a blip in terms of 3pt shooting. He can score in isolation, hit tough triples. He takes a lot of really tough fallaways (what the fuck else was Detroit going to do?) but he's very good at hitting them. Though I hope there's less of those in his future, Danny's talked so much about how important it is too have guys you can go to when the shotclock is low, and if Irving or Hayward is off the floor, Morris is another option.
Thanks for correcting me: when I said "little Gobert can do post screen," I was thinking in terms of *number of things* he can do. Which might not be, as you point out, the relevant point: I should've looked up those numbers . Obviously, being able to slam home just about anything is a hugely valuable skill.Agree that Kyrie/Hayward are both really strong pick and roll ball handlers, and that Horford's a solid roll/pop guy.
But Gobert was second in the league in PPP as the roll guy. He's really good at that.
As for Thompson, one of the legitimate critiques of Irving's game is that while he's a strong scorer in the PNR, he hasn't shown the ability to consistently create for others as the PNR ballhandler. He improved on it last year, but it's not something he's done consistently. In fact, I wouldn't at all be surprised if Horford's PPP as the roll guy declines this year even if Kyrie has very good PPP numbers himself.
Sent from my Pixel using SoSH mobile app
I would expect to see some weirder things, too. They ran a couple of Horford handling/IT screening pick and rolls in the playoffs last year. I'd expect to some interesting plays with various combinations of IT, Hayward, and Horford. They will also run Hayward off screens the way they did with Bradley, but where Bradley really only shot off of those looks, Hayward will be more multifaceted. Also, On Bill Simmons' podcast yesterday, Kevin O'Connor noted that since LBJ's return to Cleveland, Kyrie has shot 44% on spot up threes. With plenty of secondary facilitators in this offense (mainly Horford, Hayward, and Smart), they are going to have plenty of plays designed to get Kyrie spot up looks. (This will be very similar to what they did with IT).Last year's team had this advantage, at times, too, but they didn't have enough guys who could keep the defense on their heels -- Thomas would penetrate, and then they'd pass around the perimeter, hoping that someone would have an open shot. Hayward can drive and further break down the defense if the ball is kicked out to him, something we didn't see Jae, with his running-back-bum-rushes, or Bradley, or Amir (duh) do very much of effectively. Morris will be better than Amir at this, obviously, though I was surprised to see how much he stinks around the rim (50.8% last year). Jaylen could add a lot in this respect too if he'd stop dribbling the ball of his fucking foot.
Lowe also talked about times when Irving wanted a pick and no one came out to set one for him (those would show up like isos or 7+ dribble possessions on the stat sheet). That won't happen in Boston. He's not an IT clone (though they share some skills), but in a general sense Stevens will work with him the same way he worked with IT - tailoring the offense to his strengths. Keeping the middle open, using him off ball for spot up 3s, have him take more 3s than he usually takes, etc.I'm also interested to see how Irving operates in a system that asks him to run so many pick and rolls. I think Zach Lowe was talking about how Irving was the only guy willing to find Thompson in those situations; still, as you've said, he's good, not great at it. We'll see what kind of influence Brad has on him in that respect.
I think the guy whose development will benefit the most from this is Tatum; getting the ball with the option to shoot, and the defense off-balance, really plays into his strengths.Last year's team had this advantage, at times, too, but they didn't have enough guys who could keep the defense on their heels -- Thomas would penetrate, and then they'd pass around the perimeter, hoping that someone would have an open shot. Hayward can drive and further break down the defense if the ball is kicked out to him, something we didn't see Jae, with his running-back-bum-rushes, or Bradley, or Amir (duh) do very much of effectively. Morris will be better than Amir at this, obviously, though I was surprised to see how much he stinks around the rim (50.8% last year). Jaylen could add a lot in this respect too if he'd stop dribbling the ball of his fucking foot.
For a guy as smart as he is, who seems to care a lot about getting better, playing in Cleveland's "system" must have been really frustrating, even with all the winning.Lowe also talked about times when Irving wanted a pick and no one came out to set one for him (those would show up like isos or 7+ dribble possessions on the stat sheet)..
As KOC also said on the BS podcast, one of the threads that ran through Kyries initial list was the teams had strong and seasoned coaches. Also the Knickerbockers, not sure how that fits.For a guy as smart as he is, who seems to care a lot about getting better, playing in Cleveland's "system" must have been really frustrating, even with all the winning.
A lot of this was system but I feel a lot was skillset too. This was LeBron's team and when he wasn't running the PNR he was getting a rest on an offensive set because it really wasn't necessary with Kyrie being such a lethal iso scorer. Kyrie is also a good screener/PPP and can do many things offensively that Isaiah simply could not but his Iso/PNR numbers were largely a function of what he does best along with how Lue managed LeBron's activity during the course of a game.Agree that Kyrie/Hayward are both really strong pick and roll ball handlers, and that Horford's a solid roll/pop guy.
But Gobert was second in the league in PPP as the roll guy. He's really good at that.
As for Thompson, one of the legitimate critiques of Irving's game is that while he's a strong scorer in the PNR, he hasn't shown the ability to consistently create for others as the PNR ballhandler. He improved on it last year, but it's not something he's done consistently. In fact, I wouldn't at all be surprised if Horford's PPP as the roll guy declines this year even if Kyrie has very good PPP numbers himself.
My guess is that his preference was to play for a good coach OR next door to home. Not that crazy.As KOC also said on the BS podcast, one of the threads that ran through Kyries initial list was the teams had strong and seasoned coaches. Also the Knickerbockers, not sure how that fits.
Terrible defender.Milwaukee just stretched Spencer Hawes. He's nothing great, but does bring some size and floor spacing (career 35% from three). Is he worth a look as a vet minimum guy for the last roster spot?
Fwiw, I like JaMychal Green much, much more than Marcus Morris: he's younger, significantly longer, a much better rebounder, better shooter, and a more versatile defender. Did I leave anything out?I'm guessing that Ainge has his sights on RFA JaMychal Green, but I'm not sure how the Celtics can get him.
Wow, that'd be even better. I confess I've lost all sense of what players are "worth" these days, with (on the one hand) guys like Mozgov, Noah and 37 y.o. Pau Gasol on multi-year deals at $16-18M per, and (on the other hand) guys like Noel, JaMychal Green, David Lee, Bogut, Monta Ellis, Ian Clark et al. either taking vet mins, qualifying offers, or still looking for jobs.I'd be looking to get him at Morris money and add him to Morris.
Morris' RebRate suffered from playing next to a human vacuum cleaner (Drummond), his RebRate should return to its normal 10%-11% here. that being said in his brief NBA career Green has been a RebRate 14-15 guy, and Boston could use that.Wow, that'd be even better. I confess I've lost all sense of what players are "worth" these days, with (on the one hand) guys like Mozgov, Noah and 37 y.o. Pau Gasol on multi-year deals at $16-18M per, and (on the other hand) guys like Noel, JaMychal Green, David Lee, Bogut, Monta Ellis, Ian Clark et al. either taking vet mins, qualifying offers, or still looking for jobs.
To me, JaMychal Green checks all the boxes of a 3/$36M type player in today's NBA: 27 years old, 6'-9" with a 7'-2" wingspan, strong enough to guard 4 but quick enough to guard 3, winning pedigree / playoff experience, highly efficient scorer at low volume (.601 true shooting last season), hits threes (38% last season), excellent rebounder for a combo forward (13.4 boards per 100 possessions career, compared to Marcus Morris's paltry 8.1).
Or the Grizz just don't want to pay market rates given their cap/tax situation, which is just as likely true.The Cs can't get Green so people should get that out of their mind. The Grizz can match whatever the Cs can offer since the Cs can't offer much and they aren't going to trade him for non-assets. I would guess that the Grizz has offered him multiple years at $5MM to $7MM a year so that Green has two choices since he didn't get his big offer in free agency: (1) accept the below-market contract, make sure he's financially set, but also play at below market salary for a few years, or (2) accept the $2.8MM qualifying offer and hope that the market is better next year and also hope that an injury doesn't occur.
I guess no team wants to screw with the Grizz's salary cap like New Jersey did with Otto Porter.
Whether or not the Grizz want to pay market rates, the point is that they don't have to the way the offseason worked out. I'm sure the Grizz are ecstatic at the possibility of locking up someone like Green at a way below market contract, just the way DA did with Jae.Or the Grizz just don't want to pay market rates given their cap/tax situation, which is just as likely true.
Ryan Bernardoni wrote a really good post here about how the new Celtics might fit together together with statistics on how the various players are or are not efficient. To no one's surprise, Brad is going to have some work to do getting spacing down for this team, although we all wonder what new wrinkles he is going to come up with to get Kyrie, GH, Morris, etc. to play to their strengths.
I thought the piece was good, highlighted some real issues and possible problems, but suffered a bit from what Kevin O'Connor, on Simmons' podcast, called a tendency to evaluate the deal by looking backward instead of ahead (ie, focusing on what a player has done vs what he will do).I really enjoyed the piece for the most part but I didn't find his analysis on Morris very illuminating. He seemed to apply old numbers and say this is the type of player Morris is without accounting for situation
He talked about how Morris was more of a "creator" and liked to dribble versus a straight catch and shoot. I think that is almost entirely due to the fact that he had to be a creator because of the team he was playing on, which never really offered him any open 3s due to subpar PG play.
Bernardoni also seems to write as if the act of taking (just taking it, not making it) a wide open 3 is a skill and I think that's pretty ridiculous. I find it hard to believe that if Hayward/Kyrie whips the ball to Morris in the corner and he has a wide open 3 he's going to dribble around a bit before shooting because thats what he did in a completely different situation
I am not really sure what the alternative is, though. Unless you expect analysts to invent a time machine, future projections have to be based on extrapolations from past data.I thought the piece was good, highlighted some real issues and possible problems, but suffered a bit from what Kevin O'Connor, on Simmons' podcast, called a tendency to evaluate the deal by looking backward instead of ahead (ie, focusing on what a player has done vs what he will do).
I agree with a lot of what you said but with regards to the bolded, being able to stand in the corner for 20 seconds and then accurately shoot a 3Per when the ball rotates is definitely a skill, particularly if the player only gets a few chances a game. That's one of the biggest problems with volume scorers in college - the conventional wisdom is that guys shoot better when they get 15 shots than when they get 5, and some volume scorers have a hard time adjusting to not having the ball in their hands on the pro level because there are better options.I really enjoyed the piece for the most part but I didn't find his analysis on Morris very illuminating. He seemed to apply old numbers and say this is the type of player Morris is without accounting for situation
He talked about how Morris was more of a "creator" and liked to dribble versus a straight catch and shoot. I think that is almost entirely due to the fact that he had to be a creator because of the team he was playing on, which never really offered him any open 3s due to subpar PG play.
Bernardoni also seems to write as if the act of taking (just taking it, not making it) a wide open 3 is a skill and I think that's pretty ridiculous. I find it hard to believe that if Hayward/Kyrie whips the ball to Morris in the corner and he has a wide open 3 he's going to dribble around a bit before shooting because thats what he did in a completely different situation
The point is to keep that in mind and realize that projections aren't the end all, be all. They are useful to help inform, not to answer. They are one data point in a set of data points used to evaluate a game that is still played by humans and, thus, inherently not predictable. God forbid some qualitative analysis is brought to the table that isn't 100% borne out by stats.I am not really sure what the alternative is, though. Unless you expect analysts to invent a time machine, future projections have to be based on extrapolations from past data.
I agree with this. I tried to make it clear in my original post but I don't think I did a very good job of it. I think making an open corner three in the flow of the game is a skill. I don't think taking it is. Maybe I am misreading his blog post and his point is that Morris hasn't had the opportunity to take many open catch and shoot 3's so it could take some time for him to get used to the shot and make it. That I agree with. However, and this is the way I interpreted it, I don't think Morris is going to catch the ball and see that he has an open shot, then panic and dribble into a contested shot.I agree with a lot of what you said but with regards to the bolded, being able to stand in the corner for 20 seconds and then accurately shoot a 3Per when the ball rotates is definitely a skill, particularly if the player only gets a few chances a game. That's one of the biggest problems with volume scorers in college - the conventional wisdom is that guys shoot better when they get 15 shots than when they get 5, and some volume scorers have a hard time adjusting to not having the ball in their hands on the pro level because there are better options.
This particularly makes a difference if a guy's shooting mechanics are funky. I have no idea about Morris' mechanics but it will be interesting to see whether he can hit a few more open 3Pers.
If Jamychal Green signs his QO, besides needing to approve any trade which would wipe out his Bird rights, he wouldn't be able to be traded under any circumstance until December 15th.If he signs the QO they've lost him already. He and his agent probably prefer a long term deal now, but if he signs the QO then he's a UFA at year's end and the Grizzlies need his approval for a trade. As a C's fan I prefer that he sign the QO because I'm sure that he and his agent would love to play out that string on a contender and the price gets lower for the loss of Bird Rights.
I think what nighthob meant is that if Green signs the QO, there is roughly a 0% chance he re-signs with Memphis in 2018.If Jamychal Green signs his QO, besides needing to approve any trade which would wipe out his Bird rights, he wouldn't be able to be traded under any circumstance until December 15th.
That may be true, I don't know if I'd agree, but it doesn't help the Celtics acquire him this year. That's what was being discussed.I think what nighthob meant is that if Green signs the QO, there is roughly a 0% chance he re-signs with Memphis in 2018.
+1The point is to keep that in mind and realize that projections aren't the end all, be all. They are useful to help inform, not to answer. They are one data point in a set of data points used to evaluate a game that is still played by humans and, thus, inherently not predictable. God forbid some qualitative analysis is brought to the table that isn't 100% borne out by stats.
+1
It also happens way too much in SoSH baseball analysis. Any monkey with a spreadsheet can look at past results, add an age curve and project out. Zero added value.
The trick is to take past results, put the player in a different situation with new variables and try to figure out predictive results.
Morris is the perfect example of a guy that could surprise to the upside playing under Stevens ball movement system with Irving/Hayward/Horford.
Is he even better than Baynes at this point (and Baynes is limited himself)? I wasn't sure he was better than Ezeli two years ago before his latest major injury. Added depth up front in the playoffs can never hurt and we are now a ring chaser destination but I wouldn't expect much out of him. Why would he sign in Boston to be the backup 5 to the backup 5? Can't hurt to have Bogut as your 3rd center at the minimum but he surely would seem have better opportunities to contribute elsewhere.Rumor central has Bogut as a possible signing?
He argues that Kyrie running plays (hand offs and pick and roll/pop) with Horford instead of Tristan Thompson will open up some stuff.46.3 percent of Irving’s total offense came off of pull-up jumpers and 35 percent of his offense came after seven or more dribbles. Whether he was bringing the ball up the floor or trying to beat a defender somehow, the bulk of Irving’s offense involved dribbling, often a lot, and then pulling up for a jump shot.
Thomas, by contrast, pulled up 36 percent of the time. Most of his offense came within 10 feet of the basket (42.3 percent). The highest percentage of his offense (26 percent) came with zero dribbles at all, followed closely by three-to-six dribbles (25.1 percent). He dribbled the ball seven times or more before a shot 24.7 percent of the time.
He notes that Horford is more of threat with the ball in his hands, and a better screener, than Thompson, so he is a more ideal person to run those plays.Irving took 76 shots off hand-off plays in Cleveland. They were very often run with Tristan Thompson, who is not very good at them. The result was an effective field goal percentage of just 43.4.
By contrast, Isaiah Thomas took nearly twice as many of those shots (151) with an effective field goal percentage of 51.7. The difference with Isaiah and other Celtics guards is they ran the DHO with Al Horford.
Smilar deal with the pick and roll. Thompson took more than 75% of his shots from within 5 feet. After setting a pick for Kyrie, he was no threat to do anything but roll. Horford, on the other hand, can (and did) pop, often leaving the middle open for IT.Thomas and Irving averaged 6.6 and 6.7 field goal attempts respectively off the pick and roll last season. Thomas was the more efficient of the two, scoring 1.04 points per possession versus Irving’s 0.96. Thomas drew free throws 14.9 percent of the time compared to Irving’s 7.2 percent.
One reason Thomas was more efficient in pick and rolls was because of his partner, which means we’re again looking at the difference between Horford and Thompson.
Having that pop option opens up the world for Irving. Don’t be surprised if these pick and roll numbers switch and it’s Irving who ends up at the line more this season.
The potency a Hayward and Al Horford pick and roll could have is enough to make Stevens drool. Last year Hayward finished in the 87th percentile as a pick-and-roll ball handler, per Synergy, and he could be even better in the coming years. Running the pick and roll with Horford as opposed to guys like Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors will open up a new set of options for Hayward. He can hit Horford rolling to the rim, kick it back out to him spotting up behind the three-point line or even pass off to Horford, re-position himself, and spot up for a jumper of his own.
He’ll also have more opportunities to drive to the basket with Horford setting screens for him, especially when Horford pops out for a jumper. In Utah, defenses didn’t have to worry about Hayward kicking the ball back over his shoulder to Gobert or Favors because they weren’t a threat to shoot the ball from medium to long range. In turn, that allowed teams to send both defenders at Hayward.
Hayward will most likely work with Irving in the pick and roll as well. The Cavaliers loved running a 1-3 pick and roll with Irving and LeBron James, where Irving acted as the screener and James handled the ball.
Irving shot 48.2% on spot-up threes last season, and while not all of those came out of the pick and roll, it’s a promising sign that he’ll be able to effectively pop on these plays to either free up Hayward’s lane to the basket or to knock down a catch-and-shoot triple.
any color on Morris's pick n roll/pop skills? His passing skills? Could Marcus be a Horford lite and play his role when Al goes to the bench?Poor Al is going to be setting 50 screens a game
He's a career 35.5% from three, FWIW.any color on Morris's pick n roll/pop skills? His passing skills? Could Marcus be a Horford lite and play his role when Al goes to the bench?
Morris is more of a natural scorer and shooter than he is a passer.....he knows how to put the ball in the basket but doesn't force a lot of shots. We haven't had this complete of a role player in our forward rotation since I can remember. While he isn't great in any one area he's a solid defender, very good shooter as a stretch-4, and is a good mid-range scorer.any color on Morris's pick n roll/pop skills? His passing skills? Could Marcus be a Horford lite and play his role when Al goes to the bench?