The Eagles vs Raiders game was one of the most painful, agonizing, terrible games that I've watched them play over my 36 years of being a fan. As in, I was just disgusted any time the offense had the ball. Then the offense laid a complete egg with most of the starters in vs Dallas. Again, painful.
That said, I think they've got a really good shot to come out of the NFC on top.
Positive things:
- Their defense is really good. Yes, there was a bumpy three game stretch as noted above, but overall they are a very strong unit that can pressure the QB on the edges and up the middle with their front four. They are relentless. And they can shut down the run. If you can do those two things consistently you've got a fairly good shot at winning the game.
- Their offense may have been playing some rope-a-dope. A little. Maybe. Yes, they looked putrid vs Oakland and no better vs Dallas, but there's a reasonable chance that Pederson dialed back the playbook in both games. Perhaps he has a different, run-heavy game plan dialed up for the playoffs. Maybe they'll be more like they were vs NYG than OAK or DAL.
- They definitely have a chip on their shoulder. They're probably one of the least feared #1 seeds of all time, and they know it. I think they feel like they have something to prove.
- As badly as Foles looked outside in the freezing, windy cold, so did the other QBs he faced in Dak & Carr. So maybe it stands to reason that the January-in-Philly weather may be a bit of an equalizer when it comes to the QB position, and if so then you're talking about an Eagle team that was #3 in rushing on offense and #1 against the run on defense.
- Home cookin' - the games will obviously be in Philly, and Philly has been home for their last two games, home during the bye and home for their 1st and potentially 2nd game. That's a long time with no travel. And the week before all of that they had a quick trip to the Meadowlands.
Negative things:
- Carson Wentz and his athletic ability masked some very real problems for the Eagles, and he's not playing. I read at some point that only the Browns had face more 3rd & 8+ plays than the Eagles, yet the Eagles were the 2nd best 3rd down team in the league. That happened because Wentz was tough as nails hanging in the pocket (the anti-Foles) and he was very mobile within and outside the pocket (also anti-Foles). The Eagles do not seem to do well on 1st & 2nd down, and that's not going to work with Foles at all.
- Foles is just slow at everything. Seemingly. Slow at making reads. Slow at releasing the ball. Slow in general.
Some quick & dirty thoughts on potential Round 1 opponents:
- Atlanta - I doubt this happens because Atlanta is not very good. Should it be them then we'll have a dome team outside in Philly in January. I'm a little bit irrationally afraid of the Falcons and quick-hitting slants though.
- Carolina - Philly beat Carolina in Carolina on a short Thursday Night Football week earlier this year. No, that doesn't matter too much but still. I feel like the Eagles D could contain Cam reasonably well so far as his running game goes and if so then Carolina would struggle to put points on the board. The Carolina defense seems pretty nasty though. If it ends up being Carolina it would be their third straight road game, and teams have a very poor record when playing their third straight road game.
- New Orleans - oddly enough I think I want the Saints above the other two. Saints have the worst road record of any playoff team at 4-4. They can run the ball really well, but that plays in to Philly's strength. And they're below average at stopping the run, which again plays in to Philly's strength given the QB and the weather. Still, Brees is still Brees albeit with some reduced arm strength, and he's still nasty.
I realize that I'm likely just talking myself in to believing, but I do think Philly is getting dismissed a little too easily. Time will tell...