With the calendar turning to October, it's time for a new thread. Providence College basketball returns in a few short weeks, and the future looks bright. The team recently moved into a gleaming state of the art practice facility, is fresh off 5 straight NCAA tournament appearances, and will introduce a top-25 recruiting class to fans this fall. Whether or not the program's momentum translates into deep tournament runs in the future, it's hard not to admire what Coach Ed Cooley and AD Bob Driscoll have accomplished.
A quick recap of last season, before we turn the page. The 2017-2018 team had high expectations, returning every meaningful contributor from the previous year's tournament squad. Those expectations were immediately called into question with a very shaky non-conference performance. But the team got better in January and February, as Cooley's teams usually do, including regular season wins over top-10 opponents in Xaiver and eventual national champion Villanova. Still, PC had work to do entering the Big East tournament to stamp their ticket to March Madness. Cooley and the senior class answered that call, producing OT wins against Creighton and Xavier, capped off by an OT loss to Villanova where the team battled back from a double-digit deficit. The Friars were tournament bound and arguably playing their best basketball under Cooley to date. Alas, as has been too often the case, they ran into a bad first round match-up, making their tournament stay a brief one. We'll remember the senior class of Kyron Cartwright, Rodney Bullock, Jalen Lindsey & Tom Planek fondly.
What are reasonable expectations for 2018-19? Who knows. The Big East is as wide open as it has been since the re-organization. Villanova is elite, Marquette should be good St. John's should be better (finally), and DePaul is bad. Finishing anywhere from 2nd to 9th would not surprise me. Here's what I think the squad will look like:
Projected Starters: Makai Ashton-Langford, Soph (PG); Maliek White, Jr (SG); Alpha Diallo, Jr (F); Isaiah Jackson, Sr (F); Nate Watson, Soph (C)
Key Contributors (ordered by projected role): Emmitt Holt, Sr (F/C); David Duke, Fr (G); AJ Reeves, Fr (G/F); Kalif Young, Jr (C); Drew Edwards, Jr (G/F)
Limited Role or Uncertain: Jimmy Nichols, Fr (F); Kris Monroe, Fr (F); Andrew Fonts, Soph (G)
One can quibble with my role forcast. In fact, Jon Rothstein notably tweeted that he expects Duke, Reeves, Diallo, Nichols and Watson to start after visiting campus in August. Three possibilities for that tweet, in my humble opinion (from most to least likely): A) Jon is off-base; B) Cooley planted the idea with Jon in hopes of lighting a fire under MAL, White & Jackson; C) The Freshman are really *that* good, and it's going to be party time in Friartown very soon. What's certain? Diallo and and Watson have all-conference upside and are rotation stalwarts, while Jackson provides versatility and experience that should keep him on the floor during crunch-time. Otherwise, the rotation could be fluid -- though Cooley famously shortens his bench by February.
Major questions heading into the season:
1) Where does the shooting come from?
Let's not sugarcoat this: The exhibited 3pt shooting talent of returning players can largely be categorized as non-existent or poor. The list of guys who have shot well at the college level begins and ends with White and Jackson. Now those fears could be assuaged with the insertion of Duke, Reeves and Nichols, who are all billed as plus shooters. But they're also Freshman. This team can't succeed without Diallo, Holt and at least one of the Freshman revealing themselves as 3pt threats.
2) Speaking of which... how good are the Freshman, really?
Duke and Reeves were major recruiting coups for Cooley as top-50 prospects in his back yard, and reports from practice suggest Nichols may not be far behind. These kids are legitimately talented, but that doesn't always translate in Year 1. In the out-of-conference, Cooley extends a lot of opportunity to young players, so they'll have their chances. Are they going to be on the floor against Villanova in February?
3) Do the Sophomores take "the leap"?
MAL and and Watson are both really talented young players. The former struggled as a Freshman, while the latter exceed expectations. Often, a player makes his biggest jump from Year 1 to Year 2, so I'm genuinely intrigued to see how they develop. I think MAL is an under-the-radar breakout candidate. While he shot poorly last year, I thought he was a surprisingly capable defender. Expect Cooley to give him the starting PG job out of the gate, but he should have a fire under him knowing that Duke, White and even Edwards could put a dent in his minutes.
4) Whither Emmitt Holt?
Arguably the best player on the 2016-17 tournament team, Holt is back following an abdominal surgery that forced a medical redshirt last season. When healthy, Holt is a long and versatile defender who blocks shots and rebounds well. He also has enough of an outside shot to stretch the floor and is a great finisher at the rim. If you told me the guy of two seasons' ago was returning, I would tell you he's both the Friars best offensive and best defensive player... but we just don't know.
5) What's the ceiling for Alpha Diallo?
Diallo propelled himself into the starting lineup midway through his Freshman year, and has been rock steady since. He's a deceptively smooth ball-handler who can drive to the rim and pass, while also contributing above average defense at multiple positions. The question is whether he can develop an outside shot (15-70 from 3pt last year), which would be enough to propel him from memorable 4-year starter to NBA prospect.
A quick recap of last season, before we turn the page. The 2017-2018 team had high expectations, returning every meaningful contributor from the previous year's tournament squad. Those expectations were immediately called into question with a very shaky non-conference performance. But the team got better in January and February, as Cooley's teams usually do, including regular season wins over top-10 opponents in Xaiver and eventual national champion Villanova. Still, PC had work to do entering the Big East tournament to stamp their ticket to March Madness. Cooley and the senior class answered that call, producing OT wins against Creighton and Xavier, capped off by an OT loss to Villanova where the team battled back from a double-digit deficit. The Friars were tournament bound and arguably playing their best basketball under Cooley to date. Alas, as has been too often the case, they ran into a bad first round match-up, making their tournament stay a brief one. We'll remember the senior class of Kyron Cartwright, Rodney Bullock, Jalen Lindsey & Tom Planek fondly.
What are reasonable expectations for 2018-19? Who knows. The Big East is as wide open as it has been since the re-organization. Villanova is elite, Marquette should be good St. John's should be better (finally), and DePaul is bad. Finishing anywhere from 2nd to 9th would not surprise me. Here's what I think the squad will look like:
Projected Starters: Makai Ashton-Langford, Soph (PG); Maliek White, Jr (SG); Alpha Diallo, Jr (F); Isaiah Jackson, Sr (F); Nate Watson, Soph (C)
Key Contributors (ordered by projected role): Emmitt Holt, Sr (F/C); David Duke, Fr (G); AJ Reeves, Fr (G/F); Kalif Young, Jr (C); Drew Edwards, Jr (G/F)
Limited Role or Uncertain: Jimmy Nichols, Fr (F); Kris Monroe, Fr (F); Andrew Fonts, Soph (G)
One can quibble with my role forcast. In fact, Jon Rothstein notably tweeted that he expects Duke, Reeves, Diallo, Nichols and Watson to start after visiting campus in August. Three possibilities for that tweet, in my humble opinion (from most to least likely): A) Jon is off-base; B) Cooley planted the idea with Jon in hopes of lighting a fire under MAL, White & Jackson; C) The Freshman are really *that* good, and it's going to be party time in Friartown very soon. What's certain? Diallo and and Watson have all-conference upside and are rotation stalwarts, while Jackson provides versatility and experience that should keep him on the floor during crunch-time. Otherwise, the rotation could be fluid -- though Cooley famously shortens his bench by February.
Major questions heading into the season:
1) Where does the shooting come from?
Let's not sugarcoat this: The exhibited 3pt shooting talent of returning players can largely be categorized as non-existent or poor. The list of guys who have shot well at the college level begins and ends with White and Jackson. Now those fears could be assuaged with the insertion of Duke, Reeves and Nichols, who are all billed as plus shooters. But they're also Freshman. This team can't succeed without Diallo, Holt and at least one of the Freshman revealing themselves as 3pt threats.
2) Speaking of which... how good are the Freshman, really?
Duke and Reeves were major recruiting coups for Cooley as top-50 prospects in his back yard, and reports from practice suggest Nichols may not be far behind. These kids are legitimately talented, but that doesn't always translate in Year 1. In the out-of-conference, Cooley extends a lot of opportunity to young players, so they'll have their chances. Are they going to be on the floor against Villanova in February?
3) Do the Sophomores take "the leap"?
MAL and and Watson are both really talented young players. The former struggled as a Freshman, while the latter exceed expectations. Often, a player makes his biggest jump from Year 1 to Year 2, so I'm genuinely intrigued to see how they develop. I think MAL is an under-the-radar breakout candidate. While he shot poorly last year, I thought he was a surprisingly capable defender. Expect Cooley to give him the starting PG job out of the gate, but he should have a fire under him knowing that Duke, White and even Edwards could put a dent in his minutes.
4) Whither Emmitt Holt?
Arguably the best player on the 2016-17 tournament team, Holt is back following an abdominal surgery that forced a medical redshirt last season. When healthy, Holt is a long and versatile defender who blocks shots and rebounds well. He also has enough of an outside shot to stretch the floor and is a great finisher at the rim. If you told me the guy of two seasons' ago was returning, I would tell you he's both the Friars best offensive and best defensive player... but we just don't know.
5) What's the ceiling for Alpha Diallo?
Diallo propelled himself into the starting lineup midway through his Freshman year, and has been rock steady since. He's a deceptively smooth ball-handler who can drive to the rim and pass, while also contributing above average defense at multiple positions. The question is whether he can develop an outside shot (15-70 from 3pt last year), which would be enough to propel him from memorable 4-year starter to NBA prospect.