The game isn't over yet, but I'm getting a strong Couglin's Giants vibe from the Jaguars right now. Pressure the QB with four and clamp down the corners. It's eerie how much their D reminds me of those Giants teams.
It should be eerie. Tom Coughlin works for them as the head of football operations. I'm surprised by the general/unusual overconfidence here, which also typically predates a Patriots loss. Be scared.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/12/sports/football/tom-coughlin-jacksonville-jaguars-playoffs.html
It is an interesting comparison. I think the Pats are more likely to beat the Jags, but the variance is also higher. The game is more likely to go sideways against them than it is the Steelers. Brady-led Pats are 21-1 in the playoffs when scoring more than 21 points. Does anyone think they score 21 or fewer points against this Steelers defense?
But I believe they're still undefeated against teams in the playoffs when they're facing them for the first time that season, right? Yes, the Pats have lost to some bad QBs in the playoffs, but Bortles would have to be the worst of the bunch. And this Jags D, as I've said before, is more a unit that thrives on turnovers and sacks than it is a true shutdown defense that makes you earn every inch. You can move the ball against them. You just have to avoid the negative plays.
I'm kind of indifferent. They both have different strengths and challenges. At home, Pats should beat either of these teams.
I like your concluding sentence, which is spot on. On paper, the patriots should be favored for many reasons, most of all that they are playing at home. The current NFL, generally speaking, favors passing offenses over everything else. Furthermore, there's good reason to suspect that most of the AFC is weak this year -- the Jaguars do play six games against the titans, colts, and houston.
Nevertheless, I do take issue with the idea that the Jags D thrives on turnovers and sacks. It's a true shutdown defense that usually tires by the second half. The passing defense gives up 0.5 ANYA more in the second half of games.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/opp.htm
As a passing defense, this unit has few weaknesses. They are fifth in opposing TD%, 1st in unadjusted yards per attempt, 2nd in sacks sack rate and sack yards, 4th in opposing attempts, 1st in completions and completion rate, 1st in yards per game, and yes, 1st in INT%. They're adjusted net yards per attempt is more than 2 lower than the league median, and 0.2 lower than the vaunted 2000 ravens defense.
One may suspect that the Jags weakness is in the running game, where they allow a muscular 4.4 YPA. However, running defenses have a lot less variance than passing defenses. The Jags are the only team to prevent scores on more than 75 percent of drives. They perform better than the patriots in red zone defense (39.3 percent of scoring), and are 4th in 3rd down conversion rate (33.6%). The average opposing drive lasts 2 minutes and 17 seconds, and averages 1.19 points a drive.
The real weakness is likely in special teams, where the Jaguars are mediocre, allowing teams to start on the 28 on average. Nevertheless, it is hard to argue that this passing defense is smoke and mirrors.