It’s the bye week so it gives us time to reflect on the state of the current roster into next year. Next year they have 43 guys on the roster and about 20.66 million in cap space. 3/4 (Excluding Gilmore who is worth every penny imo) of their top cap hits in 2019 are Brady 27M (12Dead/15Savings), McCourty 13.4M (3.9Dead/9.5Savings), and Gronk 12M (2dead/10savings). Who do you extend if any? Cut anyone? You might be stuck there. Some easy cut targets are Dwayne Allen 7.4M of savings and no dead money. Depending on the overhaul of special teams Slater 3M (0.5D/2.5S) and Ebner 2.8M (0.6D/2.2S) might be potential surprise cuts. Even with cuts and restructuring you are talking about 40M tops in cap space and you’d need 10-15 people. They have lots of draft picks which will inevitably fill up spots but they need veterans for immediate production. They also have some younger guys on the roster who could see more playing time next year.
Let’s look at some of the key free agents and if any are worth pursuing.
Ghost, K. He was 5M this year. Even if he is losing something he’s a good kicker and I would expect him to get another contract here.
Hogan, Patterson, Gordon (RFA), Dorsett (Cody Hollister too if you want to be thorough). Edelman, and Berrios are the only receivers for next year if they let Gordon go. I like Patterson as a gadget player and returner but only if it’s a low deal. I think they keep Gordon. They need bodies here. I would pass on Hogan and Dorsett at this point.
None of the TEs are FAs next year but with what’s they are getting out of Hollister right now, Gronk’s health and long term availability, Dwayne Allen looking like a cut, and Izzo projecting to be a blocker this is an area of uncertainty.
Trent Brown, LaAdrian Waddle, (Tobin, Ulrich, and Schwenke depth) OL. Another offseason in a row with questions about left tackle. Brown has played better than Solder this year so we might end up getting that third round compensatory pick back.
Malcom Brown, Danny Shelton, DTs. Lawrence Guy has been solid but Adam Butler is more of a rusher. Patriots will need DTs. No need to overpay for run stuffers.
Trey Flowers, DL weapon. He is a stud. He is elite. He is all the superlatives. If there is one guy I want them to keep it is him. I think he might take the Hightower route. Test free agency and come back to the Patriots at a fair (in this case large) market deal.
Jason McCourty, Eric Rowe, and Jonathan Jones CB. I’d bring back JMC on a team friendly short deal. I’m not sold on Jonathan Jones or Rowe.
Part of where they spend will depend on the performance of the younger talent under contract for multiple years. We have a lot of incompletes.
On IR: Berrios, Wynn, Izzo, Bentley, Sam.
Have seen playing time this year: J Hollister, Michel, Rivers, Crossen, Jackson, Wise
Could see action soon: Melinfonwu, Dawson
Offensively Wynn might solve LT but he’s missed a year and he is coming off of an injury. Berrios could help as a slot option but I have low expectations for him (loved the pick). Hollister could be a good depth receiving TE but he’s no replacement the unicorn that is Gronk. Not much is in the pipeline as a solid bet to alleviate the FA holes at LT and WR.
Defensively I’d like to see Rivers do something. I’m hoping that his lack of contributions are because he is one year coming off an ACL and essentially is a rookie but he will be going into year 3. I also am not sure why Wise isn’t being used more. He’s been solid and even flashed.
Dawson has the potential to be a good slot defender who would be good against the run. Slot defenders are important in today’s NFL. Obi is another piece who could turn out to be nothing or maybe the versatile Swiss Army knife box safety TE assassin upgrade over Chung. In baseball we’d say he’s a lottery ticket at this point in his career. Jackson has had his ups and downs in somewhat limited time but I am encouraged by his performance in year one. Incomplete on Crossen. Having guys like Dawson, Obi, and Jackson hit though alleviates problems when they don’t generate a pass rush. Perhaps more importantly though is the more BB sees out of all of these guys (and a ton of that is behind the scenes) the less they have to dedicate their 2019 FA dollars to fill holes.
What are your thoughts on impending FAs? Anyone you want to keep based on what we have seen so far? Thoughts on the year 1 and 2 players on the roster?