College basketball is around the corner – we think. And so it’s time to check in on Ed Cooley & company, who have built a consistent winner down in Providence in the refashioned Big East.
Remember last season? You’d be forgiven not to, but I certainly do. We had high-high hopes with a talented roster and the prospect of graduate transfer Luwane Pipkins stabilizing the PG position. It started poorly with a disappointing but forgivable road loss to Northwestern in the first real test, got worse with an inexplicable home loss to Penn, and deteriorated further by losing 3 of the next 4, including losses to Long Beach St (!), Charleston (!!) and in-state rival Rhode Island. The team hardly had a chance to lick their wounds before getting blown out by 30 against Florida at Barclay’s Center. It was the ugliest stretch of basketball in recent memory, and left many wondering whether we might see a wave of transfers out of the program and a complete reset 7 seasons into a very competitive run. (You could practically hear it in bars downtown: It was good while it lasted!) The team was more than written off, it was a laughing stock of the early 2019-20 season.
Then something funny happened: Texas visited in an anticipated rematch of a game the Friars stole down in Austin the season before, and Providence prevailed easily – showing glimpses of the recent vintage Cooley teams that win through athleticism, smothering defense, and taking care of the ball without elite shooting. Then PC edged out Georgetown and DePaul to kick off conference play, before stealing an OT thriller at Marquette. The team wasn’t quite right, though – truthfully, senior forward (and 4-year starter / 2x all-conference) Alpha Diallo never got it going last season. So they sputtered to a 6-6 conference start and hopes to make the NCAA tournament were faint.
Then something incredible happened: A 6-game winning streak to finish out the conference schedule, including a gutty home win over ranked Seton Hall, an amazing road win over Villanova, and a knife fight against Xavier with both teams’ tournament hopes presumably on the line. The run was capped off with a beat-down of DePaul on March 7th – the Friars were riding high, playing the best basketball I’ve seen under Ed Cooley. Leaving the Dunkin’ Donuts Center that Saturday with a nice beer buzz, I thought to myself: This team is going to win the Big East tournament. A few days later, I thought: It sure would be a shame if I don’t get to see it in person. How naïve. The rest, as they say, is history. (Though please let the record show that Providence was in every bracket projection, usually as high as an 8 or 9 seed, when the 2019-20 season was interrupted.)
The Friars bid farewell to the aforementioned Pipkins and Diallo. If you played Diallo’s career in reverse, he would be remembered much more fondly – I can’t explain why he was better as a sophomore than as a senior, other than the talent around him was more complementary when the roster had shooters like Jalen Lindsey and Kyron Cartwright. Also moving on is 6th-year senior Emmitt Holt, who was an integral part of the team that spent much of Kris Dunn’s final year in the top-25 (remember that?), only to battle a life-threatening intestinal issue. His return to the floor was inspirational, after effectively missing two seasons. Rounding out the departures are Kalif Young, a beloved back-up center who was great on the defensive end, and combo-guard Maliek White, who had his moments as a bench scorer all four years.
So what do we have to look forward to? It really depends. It depends primarily on how much basketball we actually get to see. It also depends on how good heralded recruits David Duke and AJ Reeves are in their junior seasons. Further, it depends on how Ed Cooley integrates four transfers expected to play meaningful minutes.
Projected Starting 5: (1) Jared Bynum, So; (2) David Duke, Jr; (3) AJ Reeves, Jr; (4) Jimmy Nichols, So; (5) Nate Watson, Sr
Key Rotation Pieces: (4/5) Noah Horchler, Sr; (2/3) Brycen Goodine, So; (4/5) Ed Croswell, Jr; (3/4) Greg Gantt, So
Rounding Out the Roster: (3/4) Kris Monroe, Jr; (1/2) Andrew Fonts, Sr; (1) Jyare Davis, Fr; (1/2) Allyn Breed
*Note: Goodine (Syracuse) and Croswell (LaSalle) are incoming transfers approved to play this season
**Also note: Due to the depth of this year’s roster, this is one of Cooley’s lightest recruiting classes – I wouldn’t expect to see much from Davis or Breed until 2022-23.
Key Questions for the Season
(1) Will the real AJ Reeves please stand up? Arguably the best pro prospect on the team, Reeves is a knockdown shooter and dynamic playmaker when he’s healthy and right… but he hasn’t been healthy and right very often.
(2) David Duke – a star is born? If you told me David Duke improved his shot-making ability, won Big East POY and jumped to the NBA after this season, I wouldn’t be surprised. He’s a long, athletic guard with great poise and enough of a handle to play in the league. Seems like a great kid, too.
(3) Can the transfers play up? This team is banking on the fact that Jared Bynum’s very good freshman year in the A-10 will translate to above-average PG play in the ferocious Big East (he’s a transfer from St. Joe’s). It’s also banking on one of Horchler (No. Florida) or Crowswell being able to play meaningful minutes at the 4/5 positions.
(4) Wither Nate Watson? It’s hard to look at the stat line and say big Nate has been a disappointment over his first three years, but the fact that a much less talented player in Kalif Young ate into his minutes tells you all you need to know about how Cooley views Watson’s defense (hint: he thinks it’s a liability). Watson was voted preseason all-Big East 2nd team, and deservedly so for his offensive talent. But he needs to stay out of foul trouble and rebound better, or we’ll be seeing Croswell take some crunch time minutes at the 5.
(5) Do either Nichols or Gantt make a leap? Supremely athletic, talented guys who can’t shoot -- we've seen this before in Providence
(6) Speaking of shooting… who can? I’m not going to harp on this, because Cooley’s teams have somehow managed to win with below average shooting for years. But Reeves, Duke and Goodine all need to make a high volume of threes from the wing position for these Friars to keep up offensively.
Expectations? I have none… every game that’s played will be a treat. If you ask the AP/Coaches, the Friars are a borderline top-35 team. But if you ask KenPom, they’re #63. I’m a tad pessimistic, but all it would take is a healthy and productive Reeves to change my mind.
Non-Conference Look-Ahead
Remember last season? You’d be forgiven not to, but I certainly do. We had high-high hopes with a talented roster and the prospect of graduate transfer Luwane Pipkins stabilizing the PG position. It started poorly with a disappointing but forgivable road loss to Northwestern in the first real test, got worse with an inexplicable home loss to Penn, and deteriorated further by losing 3 of the next 4, including losses to Long Beach St (!), Charleston (!!) and in-state rival Rhode Island. The team hardly had a chance to lick their wounds before getting blown out by 30 against Florida at Barclay’s Center. It was the ugliest stretch of basketball in recent memory, and left many wondering whether we might see a wave of transfers out of the program and a complete reset 7 seasons into a very competitive run. (You could practically hear it in bars downtown: It was good while it lasted!) The team was more than written off, it was a laughing stock of the early 2019-20 season.
Then something funny happened: Texas visited in an anticipated rematch of a game the Friars stole down in Austin the season before, and Providence prevailed easily – showing glimpses of the recent vintage Cooley teams that win through athleticism, smothering defense, and taking care of the ball without elite shooting. Then PC edged out Georgetown and DePaul to kick off conference play, before stealing an OT thriller at Marquette. The team wasn’t quite right, though – truthfully, senior forward (and 4-year starter / 2x all-conference) Alpha Diallo never got it going last season. So they sputtered to a 6-6 conference start and hopes to make the NCAA tournament were faint.
Then something incredible happened: A 6-game winning streak to finish out the conference schedule, including a gutty home win over ranked Seton Hall, an amazing road win over Villanova, and a knife fight against Xavier with both teams’ tournament hopes presumably on the line. The run was capped off with a beat-down of DePaul on March 7th – the Friars were riding high, playing the best basketball I’ve seen under Ed Cooley. Leaving the Dunkin’ Donuts Center that Saturday with a nice beer buzz, I thought to myself: This team is going to win the Big East tournament. A few days later, I thought: It sure would be a shame if I don’t get to see it in person. How naïve. The rest, as they say, is history. (Though please let the record show that Providence was in every bracket projection, usually as high as an 8 or 9 seed, when the 2019-20 season was interrupted.)
The Friars bid farewell to the aforementioned Pipkins and Diallo. If you played Diallo’s career in reverse, he would be remembered much more fondly – I can’t explain why he was better as a sophomore than as a senior, other than the talent around him was more complementary when the roster had shooters like Jalen Lindsey and Kyron Cartwright. Also moving on is 6th-year senior Emmitt Holt, who was an integral part of the team that spent much of Kris Dunn’s final year in the top-25 (remember that?), only to battle a life-threatening intestinal issue. His return to the floor was inspirational, after effectively missing two seasons. Rounding out the departures are Kalif Young, a beloved back-up center who was great on the defensive end, and combo-guard Maliek White, who had his moments as a bench scorer all four years.
So what do we have to look forward to? It really depends. It depends primarily on how much basketball we actually get to see. It also depends on how good heralded recruits David Duke and AJ Reeves are in their junior seasons. Further, it depends on how Ed Cooley integrates four transfers expected to play meaningful minutes.
Projected Starting 5: (1) Jared Bynum, So; (2) David Duke, Jr; (3) AJ Reeves, Jr; (4) Jimmy Nichols, So; (5) Nate Watson, Sr
Key Rotation Pieces: (4/5) Noah Horchler, Sr; (2/3) Brycen Goodine, So; (4/5) Ed Croswell, Jr; (3/4) Greg Gantt, So
Rounding Out the Roster: (3/4) Kris Monroe, Jr; (1/2) Andrew Fonts, Sr; (1) Jyare Davis, Fr; (1/2) Allyn Breed
*Note: Goodine (Syracuse) and Croswell (LaSalle) are incoming transfers approved to play this season
**Also note: Due to the depth of this year’s roster, this is one of Cooley’s lightest recruiting classes – I wouldn’t expect to see much from Davis or Breed until 2022-23.
Key Questions for the Season
(1) Will the real AJ Reeves please stand up? Arguably the best pro prospect on the team, Reeves is a knockdown shooter and dynamic playmaker when he’s healthy and right… but he hasn’t been healthy and right very often.
(2) David Duke – a star is born? If you told me David Duke improved his shot-making ability, won Big East POY and jumped to the NBA after this season, I wouldn’t be surprised. He’s a long, athletic guard with great poise and enough of a handle to play in the league. Seems like a great kid, too.
(3) Can the transfers play up? This team is banking on the fact that Jared Bynum’s very good freshman year in the A-10 will translate to above-average PG play in the ferocious Big East (he’s a transfer from St. Joe’s). It’s also banking on one of Horchler (No. Florida) or Crowswell being able to play meaningful minutes at the 4/5 positions.
(4) Wither Nate Watson? It’s hard to look at the stat line and say big Nate has been a disappointment over his first three years, but the fact that a much less talented player in Kalif Young ate into his minutes tells you all you need to know about how Cooley views Watson’s defense (hint: he thinks it’s a liability). Watson was voted preseason all-Big East 2nd team, and deservedly so for his offensive talent. But he needs to stay out of foul trouble and rebound better, or we’ll be seeing Croswell take some crunch time minutes at the 5.
(5) Do either Nichols or Gantt make a leap? Supremely athletic, talented guys who can’t shoot -- we've seen this before in Providence
(6) Speaking of shooting… who can? I’m not going to harp on this, because Cooley’s teams have somehow managed to win with below average shooting for years. But Reeves, Duke and Goodine all need to make a high volume of threes from the wing position for these Friars to keep up offensively.
Expectations? I have none… every game that’s played will be a treat. If you ask the AP/Coaches, the Friars are a borderline top-35 team. But if you ask KenPom, they’re #63. I’m a tad pessimistic, but all it would take is a healthy and productive Reeves to change my mind.
Non-Conference Look-Ahead
- Wed, 11/25 vs. Fairfield
- Mon, 11/30 vs. Indiana (neutral site – Maui Invitational in Ashville, NC)
- Tue, 12/1 & Wed, 12/2 TBD
- Sat, 12/5 vs. Farleigh Dickinson
- Wed, 12/9 @ TCU
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