The 2022 version of the Royals comes into the season with low expectations but, at least in my novice opinion, some pretty high upside. I think the addition of a 6th playoff team really brings basically any team in the AL not named Orioles or Athletics into contention, and if some things (most things? everything?) break right for the Royals, it could be an interesting season. The team went 74-88 last season, but showed signs of life last, going 15-14 from Sept 3rd onward, and they are a young-ish team with a lot of pieces that will hopefully take a step forward this season.
With that said, there's a fine line here where if just a few things break poorly for them, it could be another disappointing season very early on. While I am not as bullish on the White Sox being a dominant team as others, I think they are a clear favorite in the NL Central, and the Twins, by virtue of getting Buxton back healthy and adding Correa have gotten significantly better this offseason. I think the Guardians are likely to not be very good, and I don't think the Tigers did quite enough to get themselves out of mediocrity, but those are for someone else, in a different thread to put more thought into.
Projected Lineup:
Catchers
Salvador Perez: One of the best offensive catchers in the game, the seven time All Star took his skills to another level in 2021, with 48 home runs (a new record for players who "primarily started at catcher"), a .273/.316/.544/.859 slash line and 121 RBI's. He also stole the 6th base of his career. Oh, and by the way, he's pretty good defensively as well, leading the league with a 44% CS rate, and only one passed ball. He's 32 years old, so I don't believe he will quite match those numbers offensively, but I would put him pretty firmly in the top 3 of catchers I would want on my MLB team this season.
Cam Gallagher: Gallagher is a solid enough backup catcher that he would likely start on many MLB teams, but has had only one truly above average season for KC, and that was 2020, so take it for what it's worth. He will likely see playing time in something like 25% of the games early as Perez takes the lion's share of work behind the dish, and continue to be a capable backup.
Sebastian Rivero: Rivero received a few cups of coffee in 2021, and failed to impress, and the 23 year old has a mixed bag of a track record throughout his minor league career, with not much power and not great on base skills. I would not expect to see him much in the big leagues, if at all, because......
On the way:
MJ Melendez: Melendez would likely start, right now, on a majority of Major League teams. He led all of the minor leagues in home runs last season, and has easy, easy power to all fields, great bat to ball skills, and throws out 30+% of runners. He does need some refining defensively (errors are an issue), but I would not be at all surprised to see him break camp with the Royals as their DH/3rd catcher option. He's 23, and having seen him in person 12 or so times last season before his callup to AAA, I am confident in saying that I think he is going to be a top 10 catcher in the league within a couple seasons. He is awesome.
First Base
Carlos Santana: He's old, but you can expect 20 or so home runs from him depending on playing time.
Ryan O'Hearn: 28 years old, and this is probably close to his last chance to prove himself in this organization. He has an impressive minor league track record, but his on base and power skills have never really translated to the Major League Level across four seasons and 275 games at this point. I think he likely "is what he is".
Both of these players are place holders because....
On the way:
Nick Pratto: Pratto is currently having a good enough spring that I could see him breaking camp with the team. He does have some pretty significant strikeout concerns, but much like Melendez the power is there and it is easy power, with 36 across AA and AAA last season. I don't expect him to drop in and put up a 1.000+ OPS like he did in AAA last season, especially since strikeouts are such an issue (repeated for emphasis), but I think he will eventually be an .850 OPS player with 30+ home runs, maybe as soon as this season.
Vinnie Pasquantino: Vinnie is also putting up solid spring numbers, and while he has less power than Pratto, he also has far less strikeout concerns. 24 home runs, with a nearly .400 OBP across two minor league levels, I still expect him to start the season in AAA since he never got to that level last season and likely needs a little more work before getting the callup.
Infielders:
Nicky Lopez: Lopez had a huge breakout in 2021, playing most of his games at shortstop for the injured Adalberto Mondesi. Assuming Mondesi is healthy, I expect Lopez to see most of the playing time at second base. He slashed his K rate from 21% to 13% in 2021, which translated to a .365 OBP and a .744 OPS. He may not repeat these numbers, but I see no reason the believe there will be a steep decline. Defensively, he was capable enough at SS that I think his skills will translate well to 2B this season.
Adalberto Mondesi: Everything I am reading makes it seem like Mondesi is a lock to start at short, but I’m not convinced that he is a huge upgrade over some of the other options, unless he has a 26 year old breakout season like Nicky Lopez just did. A career .249 hitter, with sub .300 OBP, he appears to be only adequate defensively, and I would not be at all surprised to see him end up the odd man out among this crew.
Whit Merrifield: The elder statesman of the infield crew at 33, Merrifield has started every game at second base for the Royals for three straight seasons. A career .291 hitter, with some pop to go along with it, he is a slightly below average defensive second baseman who will likely also see time in the outfield, and provides the team a ton of versatility along with…
Hunter Dozier: Dozier will likely see playing time at every non-catcher position at some point this season, besides maybe shortstop. Last year was a rough year for him, but he was dealing with a thumb injury all year, and I think he will bounce back close to a .340 OBP and a .750-.800 OPS, which is useful for a utility player, especially in the AL Central.
And finally:
Bobby Witt Jr: I can’t possibly fit enough good things into this thread about what I think about this kid. I got to chat with him briefly last spring before he moved from AA to AAA, and he is just a spectacular human being (I also had to “scold” him for signing autographs when the players weren’t supposed to be…but I’m just an usher so nobody really listens to me anyway). His talent on the field is just an extension of that. I think he is going to win multiple MVP awards, and will be stunned if he isn’t in the top 2 for RotY this season. I fully expect something close to a .290/.350/.550/.900 line from him this year, with 25+ home runs and steals. Anyone who hasn’t seen him play yet is in for an absolute treat.
I will drop the OF and pitching tomorrow, but I think this team will be a lot more fun than some people realize.
With that said, there's a fine line here where if just a few things break poorly for them, it could be another disappointing season very early on. While I am not as bullish on the White Sox being a dominant team as others, I think they are a clear favorite in the NL Central, and the Twins, by virtue of getting Buxton back healthy and adding Correa have gotten significantly better this offseason. I think the Guardians are likely to not be very good, and I don't think the Tigers did quite enough to get themselves out of mediocrity, but those are for someone else, in a different thread to put more thought into.
Projected Lineup:
Catchers
Salvador Perez: One of the best offensive catchers in the game, the seven time All Star took his skills to another level in 2021, with 48 home runs (a new record for players who "primarily started at catcher"), a .273/.316/.544/.859 slash line and 121 RBI's. He also stole the 6th base of his career. Oh, and by the way, he's pretty good defensively as well, leading the league with a 44% CS rate, and only one passed ball. He's 32 years old, so I don't believe he will quite match those numbers offensively, but I would put him pretty firmly in the top 3 of catchers I would want on my MLB team this season.
Cam Gallagher: Gallagher is a solid enough backup catcher that he would likely start on many MLB teams, but has had only one truly above average season for KC, and that was 2020, so take it for what it's worth. He will likely see playing time in something like 25% of the games early as Perez takes the lion's share of work behind the dish, and continue to be a capable backup.
Sebastian Rivero: Rivero received a few cups of coffee in 2021, and failed to impress, and the 23 year old has a mixed bag of a track record throughout his minor league career, with not much power and not great on base skills. I would not expect to see him much in the big leagues, if at all, because......
On the way:
MJ Melendez: Melendez would likely start, right now, on a majority of Major League teams. He led all of the minor leagues in home runs last season, and has easy, easy power to all fields, great bat to ball skills, and throws out 30+% of runners. He does need some refining defensively (errors are an issue), but I would not be at all surprised to see him break camp with the Royals as their DH/3rd catcher option. He's 23, and having seen him in person 12 or so times last season before his callup to AAA, I am confident in saying that I think he is going to be a top 10 catcher in the league within a couple seasons. He is awesome.
First Base
Carlos Santana: He's old, but you can expect 20 or so home runs from him depending on playing time.
Ryan O'Hearn: 28 years old, and this is probably close to his last chance to prove himself in this organization. He has an impressive minor league track record, but his on base and power skills have never really translated to the Major League Level across four seasons and 275 games at this point. I think he likely "is what he is".
Both of these players are place holders because....
On the way:
Nick Pratto: Pratto is currently having a good enough spring that I could see him breaking camp with the team. He does have some pretty significant strikeout concerns, but much like Melendez the power is there and it is easy power, with 36 across AA and AAA last season. I don't expect him to drop in and put up a 1.000+ OPS like he did in AAA last season, especially since strikeouts are such an issue (repeated for emphasis), but I think he will eventually be an .850 OPS player with 30+ home runs, maybe as soon as this season.
Vinnie Pasquantino: Vinnie is also putting up solid spring numbers, and while he has less power than Pratto, he also has far less strikeout concerns. 24 home runs, with a nearly .400 OBP across two minor league levels, I still expect him to start the season in AAA since he never got to that level last season and likely needs a little more work before getting the callup.
Infielders:
Nicky Lopez: Lopez had a huge breakout in 2021, playing most of his games at shortstop for the injured Adalberto Mondesi. Assuming Mondesi is healthy, I expect Lopez to see most of the playing time at second base. He slashed his K rate from 21% to 13% in 2021, which translated to a .365 OBP and a .744 OPS. He may not repeat these numbers, but I see no reason the believe there will be a steep decline. Defensively, he was capable enough at SS that I think his skills will translate well to 2B this season.
Adalberto Mondesi: Everything I am reading makes it seem like Mondesi is a lock to start at short, but I’m not convinced that he is a huge upgrade over some of the other options, unless he has a 26 year old breakout season like Nicky Lopez just did. A career .249 hitter, with sub .300 OBP, he appears to be only adequate defensively, and I would not be at all surprised to see him end up the odd man out among this crew.
Whit Merrifield: The elder statesman of the infield crew at 33, Merrifield has started every game at second base for the Royals for three straight seasons. A career .291 hitter, with some pop to go along with it, he is a slightly below average defensive second baseman who will likely also see time in the outfield, and provides the team a ton of versatility along with…
Hunter Dozier: Dozier will likely see playing time at every non-catcher position at some point this season, besides maybe shortstop. Last year was a rough year for him, but he was dealing with a thumb injury all year, and I think he will bounce back close to a .340 OBP and a .750-.800 OPS, which is useful for a utility player, especially in the AL Central.
And finally:
Bobby Witt Jr: I can’t possibly fit enough good things into this thread about what I think about this kid. I got to chat with him briefly last spring before he moved from AA to AAA, and he is just a spectacular human being (I also had to “scold” him for signing autographs when the players weren’t supposed to be…but I’m just an usher so nobody really listens to me anyway). His talent on the field is just an extension of that. I think he is going to win multiple MVP awards, and will be stunned if he isn’t in the top 2 for RotY this season. I fully expect something close to a .290/.350/.550/.900 line from him this year, with 25+ home runs and steals. Anyone who hasn’t seen him play yet is in for an absolute treat.
I will drop the OF and pitching tomorrow, but I think this team will be a lot more fun than some people realize.