Isn't it such an eye opening viewpoint to watch a game live? When I was at the Pats game in Vegas recently I knew our receivers had trouble gaining separation but to see average-at-best corners consistently beat receivers to their spot and sometimes even to their cut was something to behold. Sounds like you had similar with Jrue.
I don't know what to tell you guys, there's no way Jaylen gets by Gobert (or anyone else) here. Not enough time to threaten a pass.
That lineup and Pritchard/Holiday/Jaylen/Hauser/Kornet are the two that really drag it down.
What stood out is that the defense has been okay when Tatum sits, but the offense has been a disaster. Fourth percentile in points per 100 possessions, and third percentile in eFG. I checked nba.com, and it’s the same thing.
Yeah I get that in a vacuum, if you only need one point then a 3 pointer isn't the ideal look, but 1v1 against a good defender with <8 seconds, any reasonable open look is a good one. What's the best case of a drive? Either he goes left into 3 waiting defenders, or he goes right into Gobert. If there was another 2-3 seconds I'd say driving at Gobert and kicking it to Horford for a wide open corner 3 is the play (I doubt McDaniels rotates in time), but there just wasn't time for that. If he drives past McDaniels, the best you're getting is a contested pull up 2. Not better than a good look at an open 3, and certainly not worth kicking JB over.
To be fair, it wasn't anyone's plan to have Jaylen initiate the play. Jaylen happened to be the one who got the defensive rebound on the other end on the Edwards miss, and he pushed it up court as time was winding down. Once he cleared half court, it looked like everyone assumed a timeout was coming, everyone stopped and he was out there with the ball in his hands and the clock winding down. He grabbed the rebound with about 11 seconds left, and took the shot with about 3 seconds left.
I think Joe's ideal usage that he's trying to work with is to have both Jaylen and Tatum play about 8-9 minutes each in the 1st and 2nd quarters. Jaylen usually plays until the 3:00 minute mark or so of the 1st quarter, and then Tatum comes out at the 6:00 minute mark, and then back in for the last couple of minutes. Tatum starts the 2nd quarter, then Brown will come in with about 8 minutes to go, Tatum gets a breather and then back in with about 6 minutes to go.
Have you had a chance to listen to Joe on JJ Redick's podcast this offseason? Anyone who hasn't really should as he goes into specifics of the non-TO's. In short....don't expect to see many of them in similar situations.
I did listen to the episode and I came away from it thinking that there will be more timeouts in these types of scenarios? It seemed like he still believes in the overall idea of letting the players play but he also acknowledged that he was probably too stubborn with his belief in the concept last year.
He's still very young and if not for Ime would still be an Asst Coach here so I try to keep this in mind when evaluating him. My takeaway of the interview was different than yours in that one of his core beliefs is to attack a defense without allowing them to be best prepared....but that last year he failed in having HIS team well prepared to identify the holes to attack in the defense and that they would be better prepared this year to do so.
Walked the ball up the court? He corralled the rebound with 11 seconds left. He crossed half court with 8.7 seconds left, BEFORE ANY OTHER CELTIC EVEN CROSSED HALF COURT. By the time everyone was across half court, there was under 7 seconds left, and nobody was open. Literally, not one Celtic moves from that point forward. The only option he has is to throw it over to a covered Tatum at any point during the play.
I thought I insinuated this wasn’t an anti JB thing, but a team thing, I guess I should have been more direct. I will admit I for some reason couldn’t find a replay, but I definitely remember watching thinking why is the whole team just jogging up the court, giving into the idea immediately the ball is sticking to JB. I would have thought the same if it were JT. If the team pushed, 8 or 9 seconds is plenty of time to make something happen instead of pigeonholing into a three. It’s more than enough time for a drive and kick.
Yeah I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here. Not only does he take less than 3 seconds to go from rebound to crossing half court, as you note he's the first Celtic AND there are four Twolves already in the backcourt (including Gobert) waiting for him if he tries to drive past McDaniels. He's not about to go one on four, so he has wait for the rest of the team. Tatum wasn't exactly screaming for the ball, he was hanging around just out of the play (far away enough that Edwards couldn't double, close enough to help if need be). Given the time left, it was as good a look as you can hope for without a timeout.
1000%
It's hard to view that post as not blaming JB when it starts with "Regardless if you think Joe should have called a timeout or not, the issue I have is what JB did. He walked the ball up the court, giving himself no time to do anything but take the three."
Yup, 100% my bad on that, not the intention at all. I typed it out, then added a line about it would be the same if it was JT, then felt I was over explaining and deleted it. Should have left it
100%, that's the reason you don't call timeout in those cases, but that defense was set, the C's had nobody down the court on offense, and 8 seconds left on the clock. IMO, Joe has to see that and call the timeout. When he didn't, I think JB probably got the best look they reasonably could have expected in the situation, which like you, I don't think was the best look they could have gotten or should have gotten, but it was out of JB's hands at that point.
We go over this every year as to why motion and ball movement is suboptimal (generous term as it's essentially negligent ) on final possessions. It's basically two things...
(quoted from the game thread)
He has been basically league average thus far. 18/51 for .353. League average is .361. You’d obviously like to see more from the highest paid player in the association, and maybe a bit less streakiness, but he’s been fine from three overall.
Obv all small samples but JB's 8-13 vs that thing the Wizards call defense skews his overall shooting numbers this year. He's 10-38 aside from that night of shooting in an open gym. I don't like how he fits w Porzingis, I never really liked how he fit w Tatum but he got plenty of rhythm touches when it was only the two of them. He was my biggest concern staring the year and remains so.
It’s not just a this season thing. These are his C&S numbers from three since 20-21. It’s a bizarre trend, but it’s very clearly a trend.
Broke down this game late night. Hauser is a good positional defender for sure and that has always been the case but he's actually improving in this area. There were multiple occasions last night however where his lack of physicals affected the team defense allowing the Sixers uncontested shots off the dribble in the lane without any threat to contest. Something to watch in future games for sure.
I don't know if this is a specific part of the strategy but the typical defense would be something like:
Yea that's a good summation of what I'm seeing with "Jrue guarding Alpha BIGs" while KP plays free safety.
Including garbage time, their net rating without Tatum is -5.3. There’s a gap of 7.3 until you get to the next closest player, in White.
Tatum seems to have 10-12 low floor games a season where he can’t throw it in the ocean that top 5 players generally don’t have. When his shot isn’t falling he seems to press and let it spiral.
Those aren't "best nights" though...Jaylen and Pritchard had shot horrifically against everyone except the two teams who play shootaround level defense in the Wizards and Pacers. Both are so far outside of their comfort zones against normal defenses it is legitimately eye opening.
They arent their best nights? What does that mean?
At least it's not the Lakers and Lebron. LA is +29 in 278 minutes with him on the court (+5 per 48) and -87 in 116 minutes with him on the bench (-36 per 48 minutes). That's the difference between a 53 win team and by far the worst team of all time.
It means that those aren't evaluation games with the level of resistance that those teams present. I discussed this in the Pritchard thread last week after his big game in that they carry close to zero future predictive value.
Well, Jaylen only took 1 three against the Pacers and missed it. Against the 3 worst teams they've played, Indy/Brooklyn/Wash, he's 10/24 from deep. Against the Knicks, Miami, Minnesota and Philly, he's 8/26. Jaylen has 13 turnovers. 12 assists in those four games.
this is nonsense. saying something has zero predictive value has an actual meaning
