2023-24 Celtics

[Euclis20]

On paper Brogdon was perfect, but whether it was injury or otherwise, he really didn't do much to move the needle in May.

It was the injury. Against Atlanta and Philly, he averaged 15/4/4 and shot .446 from the field and .435 from 3. He scored 19 points on 50% shooting from the floor and from 3 in game 1 against Miami, but that's the game he got hurt. He scored just 15 points the rest of the series, on 25 shots. It was 100% the injury that changed him from sixth man of the year and exactly what Boston had been missing in 2022, to a totally ineffective reserve that couldn't even get off the bench and played just 15 total minutes in games 5-7.

It was terrible timing, but that was always part of the package with Brogdon. This is always in the back of my head with KP, just gotta hope and pray.

 

[lovegtm]

It was the injury. Against Atlanta and Philly, he averaged 15/4/4 and shot .446 from the field and .435 from 3. He scored 19 points on 50% shooting from the floor and from 3 in game 1 against Miami, but that's the game he got hurt. He scored just 15 points the rest of the series, on 25 shots. It was 100% the injury that changed him from sixth man of the year and exactly what Boston had been missing in 2022, to a totally ineffective reserve that couldn't even get off the bench and played just 15 total minutes in games 5-7.

It was terrible timing, but that was always part of the package with Brogdon. This is always in the back of my head with KP, just gotta hope and pray.

Tbf, arm injury is pretty flukey, even for Brogdon.

 

[tims4wins]

It was the injury. Against Atlanta and Philly, he averaged 15/4/4 and shot .446 from the field and .435 from 3. He scored 19 points on 50% shooting from the floor and from 3 in game 1 against Miami, but that's the game he got hurt. He scored just 15 points the rest of the series, on 25 shots. It was 100% the injury that changed him from sixth man of the year and exactly what Boston had been missing in 2022, to a totally ineffective reserve that couldn't even get off the bench and played just 15 total minutes in games 5-7.

It was terrible timing, but that was always part of the package with Brogdon. This is always in the back of my head with KP, just gotta hope and pray.

Thanks for the refresher!

 

[Jimbodandy]

On paper Brogdon was perfect, but whether it was injury or otherwise, he really didn't do much to move the needle in May.

They had one guy leave who could create good shots, Malcolm. Marcus could create shots, but not good ones. Grant, TL, not even. They brought in Jrue and Kristaps, who both can create good shots.

The whole "bench is better/worse" debate is silly, because you go 8 deep when it counts, tops. Sometimes really just 7 or even pretty much 6 guys getting real minutes in game 7 scenarios. They moved one quality shot creator and got two back. Jrue is every bit of Marcus defensively. Both the defense and offense are significantly better 1-8.

edit: Folks who aren't watching the games don't see this, and that's fine. But their opinions should be discounted for this.

 

[tims4wins]

They had one guy leave who could create good shots, Malcolm. Marcus could create shots, but not good ones. Grant, TL, not even. They brought in Jrue and Kristaps, who both can create good shots.

The whole "bench is better/worse" debate is silly, because you go 8 deep when it counts, tops. Sometimes really just 7 or even pretty much 6 guys getting real minutes in game 7 scenarios. They moved one quality shot creator and got two back. Jrue is every bit of Marcus defensively. Both the defense and offense are significantly better 1-8.

edit: Folks who aren't watching the games don't see this, and that's fine. But their opinions should be discounted for this.

Completely and totally agree. Again, I'm relaying my BIL's concerns (aka Simmons' concerns)

 

[Euclis20]

Tbf, arm injury is pretty flukey, even for Brogdon.

It definitely is, I believe his entire history before that had been legs (quad in 2018, foot in 2019, achilles in 2021). That's the thing about injury prone guys though, they seem to get hit hard by the fluky injuries. My go to example in this regard is Embiid breaking his face in the closing minutes of a series win against Toronto a few years ago.

 

[Van Everyman]

And despite that he got to game 7 of the ECF where his best player sprained his ankle minutes into the game and his sixth man was so injured he couldn’t shoot..

At some point the circumstances/context matters.

Seconds.

That game was over like 12-15 seconds in. Maybe with a healthy Brogdon or a Jaylen without the turnovers (that was the mysterious hand injury before the playoffs, right?) they stay in it. But given the unbelievable hype going in to that game after White’s heroics in game 6, the ankle injury combined with these factors doomed them, and Coach Red Auerbach couldn't change that.

 

[Auger34]

They had one guy leave who could create good shots, Malcolm. Marcus could create shots, but not good ones. Grant, TL, not even. They brought in Jrue and Kristaps, who both can create good shots.

The whole "bench is better/worse" debate is silly, because you go 8 deep when it counts, tops. Sometimes really just 7 or even pretty much 6 guys getting real minutes in game 7 scenarios. They moved one quality shot creator and got two back. Jrue is every bit of Marcus defensively. Both the defense and offense are significantly better 1-8.

edit: Folks who aren't watching the games don't see this, and that's fine. But their opinions should be discounted for this.

Malcolm could create good shots for sure, but he also was allergic to passing the ball most of the time.

He's definitely a good player and a top 7 rotation piece on any team but, overall, I was underwhelmed with the Malcolm Brogdon experience. Almost all of that was due to the expectations I had for him and the type of player I thought we were getting from reading scouting reports, which touted really sound defense and more of a "pure" PG than Smart. He's a very good shooter and an efficient scorer but he was much more of a Jamal Crawford type than I thought. Very little defense and passing last year

 

[tims4wins]

Malcolm could create good shots for sure, but he also was allergic to passing the ball most of the time.

He's definitely a good player and a top 7 rotation piece on any team but, overall, I was underwhelmed with the Malcolm Brogdon experience. Almost all of that was due to the expectations I had for him and the type of player I thought we were getting from reading scouting reports, which touted really sound defense and more of a "pure" PG than Smart. He's a very good shooter and an efficient scorer but he was much more of a Jamal Crawford type than I thought. Very little defense and passing last year

Could not agree more on Brogdon. Totally different player than I thought.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

The bench is definitely worse, but that's fine because the starting (and closing) 5 is significantly stronger. It was a quantity for quality swap that undoubtedly raised the team's ceiling, because only 5 guys can be on the floor when it really matters.

Even though the bench has been downgraded, it's worth noting that it's more reliable - Hauser/Pritchard are significantly more available than the likes of Brogdon and TL.

I don't really agree that the bench is worse, now that Horford is coming off of it. This years versions of Hauser/PP with Horford, IMO, is better suited for their roles coming off the bench than Brogdon/Grant/TL last season.

Brogdon created shots and could score, but the dude was coming into lineups and replacing Smart or White, and was terrible defensively (and then he had the nerve to come out publicly ripping the team's defense at one point). The game threads pointed this out over and over again. Then once he got hurt, the C's were basically playing 4 on 5 out there on both ends when he was on the court. Grant was fine in his role, but is he better than Hauser in that role? I don't think so, at all.

There's certainly room for argument, but when you add KP and Jrue to Tatum/Brown/White, and then slide Horford to the bench to replace an often-replaced TL and have Hauser/PP taking Brogdon/Grant's minutes, you're not really giving up a lot offensively if anything, and you aren't giving up much defensively when those guys come in, IMO.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Malcolm could create good shots for sure, but he also was allergic to passing the ball most of the time.

He's definitely a good player and a top 7 rotation piece on any team but, overall, I was underwhelmed with the Malcolm Brogdon experience. Almost all of that was due to the expectations I had for him and the type of player I thought we were getting from reading scouting reports, which touted really sound defense and more of a "pure" PG than Smart. He's a very good shooter and an efficient scorer but he was much more of a Jamal Crawford type than I thought. Very little defense and passing last year

Malcolm was a shooting guard in college and the league tried to turn him into more of a distributor. He learned to spread the ball around somewhat, but he's a shoot-first guy for sure. On the right teams that's fine.

Crawford is probably a bit unfair, but he's more of the Mitchell/Booker prototype. Guys who can pass the ball, but do you want them to? Just because you're shorter doesn't mean that you're a passer.

 

[Euclis20]

Per TNT Tatum is starting in the all-star game, no great surprise there. What was interesting to note, they specifically mentioned that JB finished 4th among EC front court players. I don't know if that automatically means he starts if one of Tatum/Embiid/Giannis can't play, but it's something.

 

[JakeRae]

Perhaps a coach can have a contingency plan for when a team or players cant hit the ocean from a rowboat. Maybe try driving to the hoop, move the ball, use your superior skill and depth to create opportunities to suceed. CJM was in way over his head last year. And it was sort of obvious early on.
I can only hope he's a quick study. I like what I see so far, but some of the same problems vex this team.

I’m going back to the start here because I think the problem in this premise that HRB and others responded to got lost in the follow-up.

First, coaches and teams should undeniably have flexible and multiple approaches. If one approach isn’t generating good looks because the other team is defending it well, you need to change to something that does work against their scheme/personnel. To be clear, I think there is absolutely no disagreement here on that point.

But your post wasn’t framed that way. It was framed as a coach should have a schematic answer for players missing good looks. And others are right to criticize that. You shouldn’t fix things that aren’t broken. If you are generating good shots, the offense is not broken. Cold shooting over a given stretch isn’t predictive of future stretches, so if the offense is working but the shots aren’t falling the solution is to keep running the offense. Now, human psychology ultimately does play a role and if the players are getting frustrated and it’s breaking the offense, you might then need to shift schemes, but as a general matter, offensive schemes should be judged by shot quality, not shot outcomes. Adjusting based on the latter would be bad coaching.

 

[bankshot1]

I’m going back to the start here because I think the problem in this premise that HRB and others responded to got lost in the follow-up.

First, coaches and teams should undeniably have flexible and multiple approaches. If one approach isn’t generating good looks because the other team is defending it well, you need to change to something that does work against their scheme/personnel. To be clear, I think there is absolutely no disagreement here on that point.

But your post wasn’t framed that way. It was framed as a coach should have a schematic answer for players missing good looks. And others are right to criticize that. You shouldn’t fix things that aren’t broken. If you are generating good shots, the offense is not broken. Cold shooting over a given stretch isn’t predictive of future stretches, so if the offense is working but the shots aren’t falling the solution is to keep running the offense. Now, human psychology ultimately does play a role and if the players are getting frustrated and it’s breaking the offense, you might then need to shift schemes, but as a general matter, offensive schemes should be judged by shot quality, not shot outcomes. Adjusting based on the latter would be bad coaching.

I don't know what you were watching last year, but the Celts far too often were not generating good looks, they stagnated on offense and took bad 3s far too often. There was a reason they lost so many 4th qtr big leads, they were too predictable on offense. And good coaches took advantage of that..Adjustments such as ball movement, attacking and becoming more aggressive were too often ignored. I thought CJM too dogmatic last year unwilling to deviate what the model called for. He has improved this year, but I still have concerns about his ability to coach series where adjustments must be made intra-game and game to game.

Edit small world. Charles addressed this issue (celts poor shot selection last year and the losses) in his post game comments and how adjustments are needed when the 3s arent falling. And he was right.

 

[DGreenwood]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2sonHLnoTrc&ab_channel=NBA

 

[RorschachsMask]

Team is a fucking machine, and Brad is the mad scientist.

 

[saintnick912]

Really fun Kornet run there towards the end of the third.

 

[chilidawg]

[QUOTE="bankshot1, post: 5959107, member: 9"

Edit small world. Charles addressed this issue (celts poor shot selection last year and the losses) in his post game comments and how adjustments are needed when the 3s arent falling. And he was right.
[/QUOTE]
Hah, I was thinking that if Chuck thinks that then there's no way it's right.

 

[slamminsammya]

did I hear during the game at some point Horford hit what was his 13th straight three?

 

[RorschachsMask]

did I hear during the game at some point Horford hit what was his 13th straight three?

You heard right, and the announcer was wrong lol.

 

[jmcc5400]

You heard right, and the announcer was wrong lol.

I think it was thirteenth consecutive game with a made three.

 

[joe dokes]

I know their roles are different, but in the historical team comparison, Porzingis, with his unique game and history, is almost more like Walton, and Horford Parish, with his consistency, longevity and dependability.

 

[joe dokes]

I think it was thirteenth consecutive game with a made three.

16th?

 

[RorschachsMask]

I think it was thirteenth consecutive game with a made three.

They were fumbling stuff all night. Tonight was Al’s seventeenth straight game with a made three.

 

[DavidTai]

Hah, I was thinking that if Chuck thinks that then there's no way it's right.

Yeah, if Chuck's saying it, it's about as well thought out as Chuck's weight-watcher diet.

The biggest problem with Chuck's analysis is that he doesn't know, or care, that the -entire- coaching staff is involved in planning. Two years ago, Ime Udoka's coaching setup had Joe Mazzula in charge of X and O's, and Will Hardy as the assistant in charge of in-game adjustment, in addition to the rest of the staff that helped coach the players as to what the plan was, and then helped sort out in-game adjustments to the players.

So, -why- is that Joe's understaffed staff being populated by Ime's assistants who are immersed in Ime's philosophy (which, circling back to two years ago, had a coach WHO IS NOT THERE ANYMORE INVOLVED IN IN-GAME adjustment), not relevant at all to Chuck's shoddy, superficial analysis?

Answer: Because Chuck is a crappy, superficial analyst. He starts with a conclusion, and skips all the actual analysis that would examine -why- the Celtics didn't have said- adjustments, and whether this is, and can be, adjusted, and how.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Home until Super Bowl Sunday now. There is 4 games in 6 days coming up so I can see a clunker or two, but they've earned a couple of those (and will likely still win those games).

 

[chilidawg]

Seems like it's taking a long time for the easy part of the schedule to show up. I guess Memphis/Atlanta/Washington is it.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Seems like it's taking a long time for the easy part of the schedule to show up. I guess Memphis/Atlanta/Washington is it.

The last 15-20 games or so is pretty weak overall, despite a few games with elite competition. The East is pretty stacked this year, honestly.

 

[benhogan]

16th?

Al Horford has made at least 1 3-pointer in 17 straight games.

Credit to Joe for reducing Horford's MPG this season & dovetailing Luke/Queta into some rotational minutes.

 

[DavidTai]

Al Horford has made at least 1 3-pointer in 17 straight games.

Credit to Joe for reducing Horford's MPG this season & dovetailing Luke/Queta into some rotational minutes.

Speaking of which, did they also use Kornet and his cut to the baskets to break up attempts to zone the Celtics without Porzingis? It felt like they could not defend Kornet without Adebayo, and when they DID use Adebayo on Kornet, the rest of the Heat defense quickly got chewed on.

 

[m0ckduck]

After shooting 55% from 3 last night, the Celts are up to 5th overall in team 3PT% at 38.1. This is a big climb from early in the season when they were concerningly middle-of-the-pack. The home-road split is stubbornly persistent: #1 in Home % at 40.5%, #13 in Road % at 36.1%.

 

[lovegtm]

People are going to forget that Miami shot really well from 3 in the first 3 quarters of this game. I thought the Celtics were playing much better defense than the score showed, and then once Miami missed a few of the tough looks they had been making, it was over fast.

Obviously Boston shot well from 3, but they were working Miami pretty easily at all levels of the court.

 

[Devizier]

I thought the Celtics were playing much better defense than the score showed, and then once Miami missed a few of the tough looks they had been making, it was over fast.

With the game on TNT, the app had mosaic view which is such a good way to follow the plays as they develop. The Heat weren’t able to free up shots with their PNR, the Celtics did a great job on switches, fighting through screens, etc,

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

I know he kind of got over his skis with the lobs to KP early, but JB running PnR with Kornet late was pretty sweet. Yeah, cool for Kornet, but also more evidence of JB have a much better feel for the flow of the offense. He’s been tremendous lately. Incredibly fun to watch.

 

[NomarsFool]

Last night was like watching a Globetrotters game

 

[lexrageorge]

Seems like the team has found its chemistry, and is now in the fine tuning stage. Post-game comments indicate the team felt they could have played better defense.

Of the 10 losses:

1 w/o White
1 w/o Jrue
2 w/o KP
1 w/o Tatum
1 w/o Horford (2nd night of B2B in Milwaukee)
1 w/o White & Horford
3 close losses @ full strength (Philly, OKC on the road, Denver at home)

Of course, some of their wins were against teams not at full strength or playing in 2nd half of B2B. And while those 3 losses to the league's better teams get a lot of attention, probably should note the 2008 Celtics lost some games to the Cavs, Jazz, Denver, Suns, and Magic, all whom were playoff teams that season. And no other team has 20 wins against winning opponents (Wolves have 19).

Give KP the time he needs to recuperate, and keep working on establishing good habits on offense and defense. Tatum is 14th in the league in total minutes, and 9th in minutes per game. Last season he was 7th and 3rd, so point to Mazzulla.

 

[NomarsFool]

Is CJM really managing Tatum’s minutes more, or have the Celtics just had more blowouts where they could pull the starters?

 

[lovegtm]

Seems like the team has found its chemistry, and is now in the fine tuning stage. Post-game comments indicate the team felt they could have played better defense.

Of the 10 losses:

1 w/o White
1 w/o Jrue
2 w/o KP
1 w/o Tatum
1 w/o Horford (2nd night of B2B in Milwaukee)
1 w/o White & Horford
3 close losses @ full strength (Philly, OKC on the road, Denver at home)

Of course, some of their wins were against teams not at full strength or playing in 2nd half of B2B. And while those 3 losses to the league's better teams get a lot of attention, probably should note the 2008 Celtics lost some games to the Cavs, Jazz, Denver, Suns, and Magic, all whom were playoff teams that season. And no other team has 20 wins against winning opponents (Wolves have 19).

Give KP the time he needs to recuperate, and keep working on establishing good habits on offense and defense. Tatum is 14th in the league in total minutes, and 9th in minutes per game. Last season he was 7th and 3rd, so point to Mazzulla.

Wrt losing a few close games to good teams: you can lose 43% of your playoff games to good teams and still win the Finals. (The 2008 Celtics lost 39% of their playoff games.)

NBA basketball has significant variance, and the sport is set up to let some of that even out on the biggest stage. The Celtics are well set up for exactly that environment.

 

[slamminsammya]

Wrt losing a few close games to good teams: you can lose 43% of your playoff games to good teams and still win the Finals. (The 2008 Celtics lost 39% of their playoff games.)

NBA basketball has significant variance, and the sport is set up to let some of that even out on the biggest stage. The Celtics are well set up for exactly that environment.

the 08 team didn't win a road playoff game until game 6 of the conference finals, if memory serves

 

[TomRicardo]

People are going to forget that Miami shot really well from 3 in the first 3 quarters of this game. I thought the Celtics were playing much better defense than the score showed, and then once Miami missed a few of the tough looks they had been making, it was over fast.

Obviously Boston shot well from 3, but they were working Miami pretty easily at all levels of the court.

It is really really tough to hide Herro on D with Rozier on the court. As bad as Lowry was on the court he helped hide Herro's sins.

 

[lovegtm]

It is really really tough to hide Herro on D with Rozier on the court. As bad as Lowry was on the court he helped hide Herro's sins.

Cs did a great job of moving the ball dynamically before setting up their mismatches, and then attacking them decisively once the ball arrived. Miami has a few weak links, but you can't just iso them. Cs' approach was great.

 

[tims4wins]

the 08 team didn't win a road playoff game until game 6 of the conference finals, if memory serves

I think they won games 4 and 6 in Detroit. They had dropped a home game early in that series.

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

Seems like the team has found its chemistry, and is now in the fine tuning stage. Post-game comments indicate the team felt they could have played better defense.

Of the 10 losses:

1 w/o White
1 w/o Jrue
2 w/o KP
1 w/o Tatum
1 w/o Horford (2nd night of B2B in Milwaukee)
1 w/o White & Horford
3 close losses @ full strength (Philly, OKC on the road, Denver at home)

Of course, some of their wins were against teams not at full strength or playing in 2nd half of B2B. And while those 3 losses to the league's better teams get a lot of attention, probably should note the 2008 Celtics lost some games to the Cavs, Jazz, Denver, Suns, and Magic, all whom were playoff teams that season. And no other team has 20 wins against winning opponents (Wolves have 19).

Give KP the time he needs to recuperate, and keep working on establishing good habits on offense and defense. Tatum is 14th in the league in total minutes, and 9th in minutes per game. Last season he was 7th and 3rd, so point to Mazzulla.

They're also just incredible on the road. I know people are like, "oh, they're just okay on the road at 15-9," and it's just insane the standard the Cs are held to right now.

In the east:
MIL - 11-9
PHI - 12-8
NYK - 13-12
CLE - 11-8

In the west:
MIN - 15-9 (they're 21-7 in conference, too; really good team that's still a little under the radar, I think)
OKC - 14-8
DEN - 14-11
LAC - 9-10
PHO - 12-7

The home-away effect in the NBA is huge, and the Cs are the best at home, best away, best in conference, best in Ortg, best in Nrtg (by two full points). They've already scored 459 points more than their opponents in 45 games. And I think there's a good argument they're not peaking yet! It's incredible.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I don't know what you were watching last year, but the Celts far too often were not generating good looks, they stagnated on offense and took bad 3s far too often. There was a reason they lost so many 4th qtr big leads, they were too predictable on offense. And good coaches took advantage of that..Adjustments such as ball movement, attacking and becoming more aggressive were too often ignored. I thought CJM too dogmatic last year unwilling to deviate what the model called for. He has improved this year, but I still have concerns about his ability to coach series where adjustments must be made intra-game and game to game.

W/r/t last year, was it that the Cs weren't generating good looks or was it the turnovers that really killed them last year?

I remember in the 2022 finals run, they were basically unbeatable when they had fewer than (something like) 12 turnovers (can't remember the exact number).

I think teams now have tracking data on the probability of shots being made - so they have some idea what is a good shot and what is not a good shot. If the Cs weren't generating good shots in the half-court, I'm sure they'd try to change that up. But one big difference between this team and last year's team (as we've discussed many other times) is that this team has multiple options how to attack defenses. Last year's team - with Al and Marcus on the floor during crunch time - did not have nearly the same options.

Hah, I was thinking that if Chuck thinks that then there's no way it's right.

Does anyone ever track whether Chuck's betting picks ever pan out? IIRC, he took the Heat last night (in the segment right before the game).

 

[tims4wins]

Confirmed that two of Jrue’s turnovers were passes that went right through his hands in the third quarter. A turnover is a turnover but they weren’t reckless passes or poor dribbling.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

CsBlog article on why MIA can't even play zone against BOS anymore, and (trigger warning!) some video from last year's series that shows the difference.

https://www.celticsblog.com/2024/1/26/24051400/boston-celtics-kristaps-porzingis-miami-heat-offensive-valve-jaylen-brown-jayson-tatum-joe-mazzulla

 

[the moops]

Confirmed that two of Jrue’s turnovers were passes that went right through his hands in the third quarter. A turnover is a turnover but they weren’t reckless passes or poor dribbling.

Looks like one of those was given to Horford for the bad pass

 

[tims4wins]

Looks like one of those was given to Horford for the bad pass

Ah good catch.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Is CJM really managing Tatum’s minutes more, or have the Celtics just had more blowouts where they could pull the starters?

I’m sure it’s an easy search but I can’t recall a close game when Tatum played less than 38-40 minutes.

 

[bankshot1]

W/r/t last year, was it that the Cs weren't generating good looks or was it the turnovers that really killed them last year?

I remember in the 2022 finals run, they were basically unbeatable when they had fewer than (something like) 12 turnovers (can't remember the exact number).

I think teams now have tracking data on the probability of shots being made - so they have some idea what is a good shot and what is not a good shot. If the Cs weren't generating good shots in the half-court, I'm sure they'd try to change that up. But one big difference between this team and last year's team (as we've discussed many other times) is that this team has multiple options how to attack defenses. Last year's team - with Al and Marcus on the floor during crunch time - did not have nearly the same options.


Does anyone ever track whether Chuck's betting picks ever pan out? IIRC, he took the Heat last night (in the segment right before the game).

While TO suck, my recollections from last year are when the Celts stopped moving the ball and became less aggressive, or slowed the pace, and settled for end of possession 3s, the offense typically suffered as they became one dimensional and predictable and easier to defend. The Celts huge advantage is their ball movement and guys who can hit from all over the floor. If they find the open guy consistently, they are very hard to beat.