2023-24 Celtics

wade boggs chicken dinner

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If Boston can play defense like this in the playoffs, they will be difficult to beat
Just to repeat myself, I think BOS is going to be better on defense in a 7 game series than during the regular season. Their physicality will wear teams down and they certainly have another gear defensively. There's just so much defensive talent on this team.

JB said at the beginning of the season that he wanted all five guys to get votes for All-Defense. Seemed like a dream back then - but wouldn't it be wild if JT was the only guy who didn't?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Just to repeat myself, I think BOS is going to be better on defense in a 7 game series than during the regular season. Their physicality will wear teams down and they certainly have another gear defensively. There's just so much defensive talent on this team.
Especially in those games that aren’t circled down the stretch. I posted that list a few weeks ago and the Pels were on it (even moreso coming off 2 losses) the Hawks, not so much, and it showed in the effort level different against each team as to be expected. We have 3-4 games left where we will see efforts like last with the rest being played like glorified exhibition games like tonight in Charlotte. Like, aside from some bench guys, do any of our top 6 really want to be in Charlotte today?
 

InstaFace

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New Orleans was clearly "circled down the stretch", think they said first time in a month when they had the full Big 6 available.

I'm guessing they don't take Charlotte that seriously tonight, but will get up for OKC on Weds, and it'll be awesome. Their first game against the Thunder earlier this year was among the most fun I've had watching a loss.
 

Koufax

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I agree about OKC. In fact, I hope that they meet in the finals, for a couple of reasons:

1. OKC is a lot of fun to watch
2. OKC does not have Jokic.
 

InstaFace

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Jesus, am I going to have to watch that video? I've managed to avoid him up to now.
That video is the exception that tests the rule. It's the only one where he's actually positive and praising what a player is doing instead of calling everybody shit. And to the extent he's yelling it's because he's excited, not, well, exasperated. He is outright adoring of what KP is doing on defense.

I don't have any problem with someone deciding that most of his videos just stress you out and they're unwatchable because the guy's obnoxious. I'm just saying, this one's different, and most people here will probably enjoy it. I make no representations about any other video by him aside from this one.

 

Euclis20

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JT's game (not sure why this tweet or whatever it's called these days isn't embedding but it's the video where JT talks about playing on a Monday night in Charlotte on League Pass).

View: https://twitter.com/NikeEYB/status/1683886978784276499
The remarkable thing about this quote is that it came several weeks before the NBA announced the 2024 schedule, and Boston has not one but two Monday games @ Charlotte this year. That seems impossible to have happened organically.
 

128

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Apologies if this has been mentioned elsewhere in this thread, but what it is magic number for clinching the No. 1 overall seed?
 

GreenMonster49

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I believe it's 2 and a win tomorrow would clinch it.
Right now, the Celtics are 6.5 games ahead of the Thunder with 7 to play for the Celtics and 8 for the Thunder. Winning tomorrow clinches the #1 seed. If the Celtics lose tomorrow, the magic number remains at 2 (OKC would have the head-to-head tiebreaker so the Celtics would need more wins than OKC at the end of the season).
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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#1 team in the NBA gets a bonus? I did not know that. Scal and House just said that's one of the things they loved about 2008 - extra bread with the #1 overall seed.
 

TomRicardo

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#1 team in the NBA gets a bonus? I did not know that. Scal and House just said that's one of the things they loved about 2008 - extra bread with the #1 overall seed.
The numbers are from last year:

Best Record gets 777,840 in addition to
Best Record in the Conference gets 680603

So the Celtics are getting ~1.5 million in the playoff pool for finishing first.
 

TripleOT

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I wonder if that money is disbursed in some prescribed formula or if the players decide, like MLB playoff shares.
I wonder it the players making $20 million and up decide to let the lesser paid players divide up that money.
 

TomRicardo

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I wonder if that money is disbursed in some prescribed formula or if the players decide, like MLB playoff shares.
Up to the players. They also can vote to share with staff. The only rule is a player can only take from one team's playoff share (in the case of a trade).
 

bakahump

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I wonder if Dalano is calling up the boys and being like “hey guys best record! That’s a helluva accomplishment we did”
 

GB5

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Let’s do this. What is their playoff Achilles heel? What teams are in the best position to expose this deficiency,

The obvious two are catching the Celts on a night when they shoot poorly from 3, or keeping the Celts close all game, getting them into a one possession game in the last 2-3 minutes and watching their offense grind to a halt and malfunction.

To me, a few times when I have seen it go bad is when they have struggled on the defensive glass. Their defensive set up is so good, but like most all teams they lose structure on second and third shots per possession. Wide open 3’s often are the result.
 

slamminsammya

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Let’s do this. What is their playoff Achilles heel? What teams are in the best position to expose this deficiency,

The obvious two are catching the Celts on a night when they shoot poorly from 3, or keeping the Celts close all game, getting them into a one possession game in the last 2-3 minutes and watching their offense grind to a halt and malfunction.

To me, a few times when I have seen it go bad is when they have struggled on the defensive glass. Their defensive set up is so good, but like most all teams they lose structure on second and third shots per possession. Wide open 3’s often are the result.
It is frustrating to see games where they struggle on the glass, but stepping back they are 8th in the league in defensive rebounding. Bad shooting and a fluky rebounding night are things that can hurt every team. I think the risks that are particular to this team as far as playing worse in the playoffs than they did during the regular season are

1) The officiating: Porzingis is hampered the most by the extra physicality they are allowing, but Tatum is also more prone to going on tilt due to refereeing than most other stars.

2) Fewer bench minutes. The Celtics top 5 is the most stacked in the league, but I do think the playoffs tend to weigh more towards the best player rather than the best 5, and a lot of their success has been the bench destroying other teams' benches, because they all know their roles and play them at above average levels. This won't be such an advantage with tighter rotations.

To add to point #2 - the lineup ratings at the DARKO app actually have the Celtics top 5 lower in net rating than the Bucks best 5 or the Nuggets. The Sixers have the best 5 man combo but that is probably useless due to Embiid being a huge question mark.

KCP - Gordon - Murray - MPJ - Jokic is just a destroyer. And Lopez - Giannis - Dame - Beasely - Middleton is excellent as well, despite their struggles as a team this year.

Meanwhile Holiday - Kornet - Hauser - Prichard - Tatum is a +6.3, which is fantastic, but also not something that is happening during the playoffs. And that has been their 4th most used lineup this year!
 
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teddykgb

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It is hardly surprising that such a deep team racked up regular season wins. Celtics could rest stars like Porzingis regularly and had plenty of depth to still dominate teams.

It’s the same questions we have had the last few seasons. I still have my doubts about this group and their approach but if they lose it’ll be some combination of shooting, physicality, and coaching adjustments made or not made. If teams have a guy who can commit to really bodying Tatum then you can really wreck a lot of what the Celtics do on offense and we are far more likely to see that both allowed and schemed for in a 7 game series.

And of course there’s always injuries.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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Here's an article with the details regarding prize money for season finishing position and playoff advancement:
Link
I can't believe I got this far in my NBA fandom without knowing all of this. Fascinating.

On a tangent but along similar lines, I wonder why there isn't a tradition of celebrating a clinch like there is in other sports. In football, there are "hats and t-shirt games"; in baseball, champagne comes out with certain clinches and playoff advancements. But in the NBA, they clinch the number one overall seed and it's just like, hey, we deserve it, moving on.
 

HomeRunBaker

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It's the opposite with just 6 games left. Time to start ramping up minutes and tightening the rotation
Yup I’m in this camp. Rotate full days off. There will be plenty of rest in week prior to playoffs starting. I don’t want them losing their edge by resting too much as these guys are wired to be playing a game every other night.
 

InstaFace

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The prize pool numbers above are from 2016, btw.

https://www.nbcsportsbayarea.com/nba/golden-state-warriors/millions-in-playoff-share-awaiting-nba-champions/1356915/

It's been echoed around the internet in at least dozens of other articles I've seen (sometimes copied verbatim) in the 8 years since, so who knows what the ratios are today - it seems like the NBA gives the NBPA the total pool amount and they decide how it gets divided between teams, perhaps tweaking the formulas a bit.

This article says teams "usually" distribute the team's playoff share in unequal fashion, whether weighting it based on minutes played, games played, or other factors. I don't know what he's basing that on, or even if he just made it up. But we're generally talking around $200k per player (on average, across all teams participating in the playoffs), so you would think that Tatum insisting on getting $400k (which is basically irrelevant to him) and leaving the Quetas of the roster with scraps would not go over well, even if it's justifiable on the merits.

I personally like the MLB system where all playoff shares are equal between players by default, but the 25 rostered players on the final playoff series that they participate in get to vote on who gets a share (or half-share), beyond those 25. Seems like that would keep people pretty happy, preserves some control over who is "deserving" but lets them reward low-paid staff who meant something to them during the year, or players who were injured or otherwise not part of the final squad.

I wonder if Dalano is calling up the boys and being like “hey guys best record! That’s a helluva accomplishment we did”
Hysterical. Maybe he'll mention it on Sunday! "hey guys lemme take you out to dinner after the game. For old times' sake."
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Here's an article with the details regarding prize money for season finishing position and playoff advancement:
Link
Nice find! I knew that all playoff teams received money for participating in each round but didn’t know so much was divvied up between the regular season winners.
 

Auger34

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Let’s do this. What is their playoff Achilles heel? What teams are in the best position to expose this deficiency,

The obvious two are catching the Celts on a night when they shoot poorly from 3, or keeping the Celts close all game, getting them into a one possession game in the last 2-3 minutes and watching their offense grind to a halt and malfunction.

To me, a few times when I have seen it go bad is when they have struggled on the defensive glass. Their defensive set up is so good, but like most all teams they lose structure on second and third shots per possession. Wide open 3’s often are the result.
The only team that I would consider putting money on to beat the Celtics is the Nuggets. Jokic is the best player in the world, the teams are fairly even and the Nuggets biggest weakness (depth) is less exposed in the playoffs. The flip side of this is that the Nuggets rely heavily on their top 5 and if any of them get nicked up, even KCP who isn't considered a world beater, it could cause some big issues

The Bucks could beat them if Giannis goes supernova and gets every foul call known to man but I really don't see it.

TBH, those are the only teams that I think have any realistic hope of beating the Celtics in a 7 game series.

I would like to avoid the Heat and Knicks as long as possible (or altogether)...not because I think they can win 4 out of 7 but because they are so physical (some might say dirty and cheap in the case of the Heat) that it will cause greater wear and tear
 

GreenMonster49

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I would hope this would be the case. And to expand the pie to include the staff, especially the locker room types, many of whom surely make peanuts where a $10k bonus would be significant.
The CBA (at https://nbpa.com/cba) limits how much can be given to team personnel:
(3) The players on a Team that receive amounts from the Player Playoff Pool in respect of a Salary Cap Year shall not be permitted to share with Team personnel amounts that, in the aggregate, exceed five percent (5%) of the total amount received by the players on that Team, collectively, from the Player Playoff Pool in respect of such Salary Cap Year.
 

InstaFace

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Let’s do this. What is their playoff Achilles heel? What teams are in the best position to expose this deficiency,

The obvious two are catching the Celts on a night when they shoot poorly from 3, or keeping the Celts close all game, getting them into a one possession game in the last 2-3 minutes and watching their offense grind to a halt and malfunction.

To me, a few times when I have seen it go bad is when they have struggled on the defensive glass. Their defensive set up is so good, but like most all teams they lose structure on second and third shots per possession. Wide open 3’s often are the result.
Jablo's article above made a solid answer about this. Specifically, that it's Porzingis's 1v1 defense vs other offensively skilled bigs, where he can't just sag off the weakest offensive player to be the help guy at the rim (which is our default stance until the guy in question makes them pay). And if we don't help when he's 1v1 with the likes of Jokic or Embiid or AD, they tend to run him over, because his center of gravity is too high and he doesn't have enough strength to hold those guys back. Jokic, of course, has an even-more-deadly toolkit to work with.

https://lowmanhelp.substack.com/p/the-boston-celtics-are-the-death

They also noted how he's been attacked by the other elite teams, beyond just Denver, particularly Milwaukee, Minnesota and Oklahoma City. I think we saw last night that Chet Holmgren isn't going to exactly dominate vs Porzingis 1v1, especially with how often we'll send help because he won't find the open man as readily (he did get a few over on KP, including that reverse dunk, but to my eyes KP largely won the matchup). Minnesota and Milwaukee have bigs who are great 3-point shooters that you can't sag off of (Towns and Lopez), but in practice we don't put Porzingis on them in a half-court set defense, we have Horford or a wing on them, with KP on whoever the weakest outside shooter is. So to attack this weak point, you really need to have a combination of:

1) A big who is a massive threat in the post and will run Porzingis over without help
2) ...who can preferably also shoot from outside or at least be a great passer when the help comes
3) A starting 5 of all-shooters so you can punish our default positioning with Porzingis as the #1 help defender
4) ...who then aren't giving up even more on the defensive end (Dame, arguably Porter)

I think Minnesota fails 2 and 3 (Gobert is only a paint player on offense, and if we help on his post possessions, any of McDaniels, NAW and Kyle Anderson are options to leave open for a moment). Milwaukee can't exploit #1 because we won't usually have Porzingis on Giannis (and Lopez can't run him over), and probably fails 3 if Middleton can't rediscover a higher gear (or if Pat Bev or even Crowder are on the floor), with defensive issues also accompanying it for #4 (Dame, however...*). The Clippers basically don't have #1 (Zubac is not winning that matchup), though they present a very different problems in terms of how you help. The Lakers and Pelicans aren't winning the West. Myles Turner has a lot of agility advantage on us, but we have edges in many other places on the floor. So it's really just Denver that has what it takes to exploit that advantage.


* For all the crap we give Doc Rivers on here, the defensive metrics for the Bucks' starting lineup have trended upwards for just about everyone since he took over. And I'm sure Giannis can crank it up a bit, too.

80488

Meanwhile, there's been a bit of a slide among the Clippers, if we're looking just at their defense this season:

80489

Harden did indeed pick it up since the trade, but he's flagged a bit as the season dragged on. So has Mann, and so has George. Kawhi is level, with Zubac showing a slight improvement throughout the year.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Jablo's article above made a solid answer about this. Specifically, that it's Porzingis's 1v1 defense vs other offensively skilled bigs, where he can't just sag off the weakest offensive player to be the help guy at the rim (which is our default stance until the guy in question makes them pay). And if we don't help when he's 1v1 with the likes of Jokic or Embiid or AD, they tend to run him over, because his center of gravity is too high and he doesn't have enough strength to hold those guys back. Jokic, of course, has an even-more-deadly toolkit to work with.

https://lowmanhelp.substack.com/p/the-boston-celtics-are-the-death

They also noted how he's been attacked by the other elite teams, beyond just Denver, particularly Milwaukee, Minnesota and Oklahoma City. I think we saw last night that Chet Holmgren isn't going to exactly dominate vs Porzingis 1v1, especially with how often we'll send help because he won't find the open man as readily (he did get a few over on KP, including that reverse dunk, but to my eyes KP largely won the matchup). Minnesota and Milwaukee have bigs who are great 3-point shooters that you can't sag off of (Towns and Lopez), but in practice we don't put Porzingis on them in a half-court set defense, we have Horford or a wing on them, with KP on whoever the weakest outside shooter is. So to attack this weak point, you really need to have a combination of:

1) A big who is a massive threat in the post and will run Porzingis over without help
2) ...who can preferably also shoot from outside or at least be a great passer when the help comes
3) A starting 5 of all-shooters so you can punish our default positioning with Porzingis as the #1 help defender
4) ...who then aren't giving up even more on the defensive end (Dame, arguably Porter)

I think Minnesota fails 2 and 3 (Gobert is only a paint player on offense, and if we help on his post possessions, any of McDaniels, NAW and Kyle Anderson are options to leave open for a moment). Milwaukee can't exploit #1 because we won't usually have Porzingis on Giannis (and Lopez can't run him over), and probably fails 3 if Middleton can't rediscover a higher gear (or if Pat Bev or even Crowder are on the floor), with defensive issues also accompanying it for #4 (Dame, however...*). The Clippers basically don't have #1 (Zubac is not winning that matchup), though they present a very different problems in terms of how you help. The Lakers and Pelicans aren't winning the West. Myles Turner has a lot of agility advantage on us, but we have edges in many other places on the floor. So it's really just Denver that has what it takes to exploit that advantage.
I've been banging the drum since before the trade deadline about number one above---that to me is far and away the biggest threat. Fortunately, there's only a couple guys in the league who fit that description and one of them (Embiid) both struggles against Cetlics/Horford and is highly likely to be well below 100% this playoffs. It's really Jokic and Giannis here.

I don't think 5 shooters is speifically a risk, or related to Porzingis. Obviously, if someone is hitting 40-50% of threes at volume that's an issue but I do not think Porzingis' defenisvely is any weak point against that (I get he's limited on perimeter, but there isn't a team that can realistically put five out there with this thread and also defend him at other end). So that one, to me, isn't a real threat.

I think the other big risk is related but distinct---rebounding/bullyball. We've seen Celtics have problems with physicality - the Minnesota game, and to a degree (not in terms of rebouding, but in terms of physiicality on drives) the first OKC game. Tillman helps some here, but is only going to play so much. They are solid rebounding wise everywhere, but there's no great rebounder on the team - they gang-rebound well, Tatum is sneakily good as is Jrue, but they don't have a beast. Teams that play two bigs and/or a big and a widebody can get enough offensive rebounds to be an issue. We saw this a bit with Atlanta. I don't think there's an obvious team save possibly Minnesota who can do this in their natural rotation, but someone might try to go bigger to win the possession game. Celtics aren't huge physically---though they are solid-average. Miami scares me just a little on physicality. The challenge of a bigger team defending the other way is the Celtics reponse.

Other than those two - a big post player blwoing up the defense, and bigs on the boards or physically giving them trouble - the Celtics losses are in four categories that are all kind of flukey/unlikely: they shoot 25% or less on threes (will happen a couple times in playoffs for sure, but not super likely to happen 4-5 times in a series); the other team shoots a Martin-like +50% on threes (will happen, unlikely to happen 4-5 times); they don't play focused (possibly, but a lot less likely in playoffs than in Atlanta in March); and someone out-switches them...which I think only Clippers have the guys to do.
 

Devizier

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The weakness is Jokic. There are other bad outcomes that could happen, but Jokic should be expected to dominate against the Celtics if that’s the matchup. They can still win though.
 

Ed Hillel

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Denver might be the toughest matchup, but they should absolutely still be expected to beat them in a 7-game series with home court.