2023-24 Yankees Offseason Discussion

jon abbey

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I'm starting this early but it's because I want to get a sense of what NY actually will have on the roster already, and where if anywhere, they might try to spend big.

C: Wells, Trevino (40 man; Rortvedt, Ramirez)

Wells has vaulted himself onto the opening day roster next year with this weekend's performance, it's his spot to lose. Higgy was drafted by NY and has been in the organization that entire time, but I think that comes to an end after the season.

1B: Rizzo

2B: Torres, Peraza

SS: Volpe

3B: LeMahieu, Cabrera

LF: Pereira, Florial

CF: Dominguez

RF: Judge

DH: Stanton

No space for McKinney or Bauers on this roster, sorry. Also they move on from the beloved yet pretty awful IKF.

SP:

Cole
Rodon
Cortes
Schmidt
King

(German)

Beeter
Gomez

That is just the guys on the 40 man, Hampton and Thorpe in AA should be options too.

RP:

Vasquez
Brito
Kahnle
Hamilton
Effross
Trivino
Loaisiga
Holmes

That's assuming all of those guys are healthy, but also NY might try to bring back Wandy since they have no other lefties there.

(40 man: Gil, Marinaccio, Weissert, Cordero, Abreu, Barclay)

============================================

That's only 36 guys on the 40 man, so plenty of flexibility there. I'm not sure NY goes after any big money guys this winter, there will be a lot of money chasing the top guys. They have more possible internal solutions coming, Spencer Jones in the OF, Trey Sweeney maybe at 3B, and a handful of guys pushing for a shot in the rotation. In 2-3 years they have Roderick Arias, George Lombard Jr and Brando Mayea hopefully pushing like Dominguez did this year, all three of them are just 17-18 now.

TL/DR: If they believe a lot of these young guys will fill spots, they can take a few more swings at big money FAs, but maybe not this winter. Japanese 1B Munetaka Murakami will be posted after 2025, he will be 26 in the 2026 season and his lefty power would fit very nicely in NY. I wonder how much Blake Snell will get, or if NY would go after him with two lefties already in the rotation (Rodon/Cortes).
 

Apisith

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How much would a Volpe extension cost? Is there a plan to reset the tax level in the next few years?
 

jon abbey

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I didn’t get into cap numbers because it’s too confusing/unclear, but I’m pretty sure they could reset this winter if they wanted.
 

SemperFidelisSox

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Does Gleyber Torres have any future in New York? He could bring back a decent starting pitcher in a trade if packaged with 1-2 low level prospects.
 

jon abbey

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Does Gleyber Torres have any future in New York? He could bring back a decent starting pitcher in a trade if packaged with 1-2 low level prospects.
He has one year left on his deal, it's hard to see NY resigning him long-term but I would have traded him years ago if it was my decision. He is adequate at 2B but can't play any other positions and his baserunning is often awful, it reminds me slightly of when NY had Starlin Castro and he was quietly more part of the problem than the solution.
 

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Torres has insurance value to the Yankees in 2024 as the new kids take over. None of them have adjusted to big league pitching yet. They might all be .220 hitters next year. The Yankees need Gleyber’s bat as a threat and protection for Judge. Put him in left field if you must. Hope he keeps hitting bombs. Gleyber is swinging from his hips. Seems to have closed up a couple holes in his strike zone.
 

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I didn’t get into cap numbers because it’s too confusing/unclear, but I’m pretty sure they could reset this winter if they wanted.
Under contract is around $190-200m last I checked before arbitration. I don’t see any way they get under the first threshold.

It would take offloading Gleyber, Stanton, and DJ.
 

ThePrideofShiner

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I just had a long conversation with the Seattle Times Mariners beat writer and he had interesting things to say about the state of the Yankees.

He doesn't think Boone or Cashman are going anywhere. Also, was very critical of Girardi.

And, much like Jon has guessed in the past, managers have very little say these days. Most power is in the GM's hands and the health guys.
 

jon abbey

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And, much like Jon has guessed in the past, managers have very little say these days. Most power is in the GM's hands and the health guys.
And some of the coaches I'm sure, Cashman isn't the one making mid-game pitching decisions as situations change rapidly, that must be one or more of their pitching coaches. I have posited in the past that Boone's role there now is likely being kept in the loop, maybe an occasional veto, and of course the press secretary who never gets angry no matter how dumb the questions he is asked.

So given that I have been assuming Boone's job is safe as long as Cashman is there pretty much, as long as he doesn't go off on a reporter, but his overdoing the yelling at the umps which has the entirety of umpdom a bit pissed at him is possibly not something a manager can fully come back from.
 

ThePrideofShiner

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He also told me that Girardi was fired by the Yankees and Phillies because he refused to work with the SABR-minded folks and tried to keep his power. Said that is why he still doesn't have a job.
 

jon abbey

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He also told me that Girardi was fired by the Yankees and Phillies because he refused to work with the SABR-minded folks and tried to keep his power. Said that is why he still doesn't have a job.
Well he did have the Phillies for a few seasons, fired in June 2022, and the Phillies went on an immediate 14-2 run and eventually to the World Series, led by career hitting coach/our old pal Rob Thomson. That's probably not helping him get another job either. :)
 

jon abbey

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The facial hair rules really is the most obvious initial fix, that is something Judge and Cole can and should be pushing for. 29 teams do it better, get it fixed.
 

jon abbey

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NY looks in so much better shape overall than they did August 1, Dominguez and Wells are starters and King looks like a major rotation addition and we had no idea of any of that two months ago, that is three major pieces. King has been a top 5-10 SP in MLB for the last month or so, I don't think anyone saw that coming. King's emergence as well as the wave of guys pushing up from the minors I think means Clarke Schmidt can be moved as a pretty valuable trade chip this winter for lefty hitting, Schmidt is controlled through 2027.

Plus NY's top 5-6 SP prospects all went nuts down the stretch and most of them don't even have to be on the 40 man yet, things look decidedly more hopeful overall for NY now than they did after they did nothing at the deadline. NY just sent Matt Sauer to the Arizona league, yet another promising arm who might need protecting or trading before the rule 5.
 

jon abbey

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(For the record, I posted that before I saw Austin Wells' game winning HR tonight, amazing how quickly things can turn around sometimes in MLB.)
 

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I don't know if Judge cares about the facial hair rule or not, though I sort of doubt it, but I do think having a racist asshole like Josh Donaldson on the team bothered him. Obviously that problem was solved a while ago, but I wonder if there are some douchebro types still in the clubhouse.

Maybe not.

But at a minimum, I expect a story or three in the papers when the season is over and after the Yankees move some guys out of the organization following up on the lack of professionalism that Judge implies. Could be some light scapegoating on the way.

Of course whatever happened or failed to happen was Boone's responsibility. I guess how much he gets blamed in the local media depends on if he is retained or not. Beat guys who want to keep access will probably go gentle on that sort of thing. Gloves off if he gets fired though.
 

jon abbey

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See, I think it is much more front office problems, what I have been talking about for years in terms of not correctly utilizing the talent that they have. For instance, both Volpe and Cabrera seem to have had their swing sidetracked this year by official Yankee instruction only to regain it when listening to others (Volpe-Austin Wells, Cabrera-the AAA hitting coach).

Anyway I am quite certain that Judge is at least as much of a bad ass behind the scenes as he is on the field, so I am glad he is on the case. I love those quotes, go Aaron.
 

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If Volpe is +14 DRS at SS and we know Peraza is even better, I wonder how good Volpe can be at 2B?

Up-the-middle defense could be truly spectacular.

So yeah, I've said it before, but I agree. I'd really like to see that. I kind of doubt we will, but I guess I'd settle for Peraza as the super utility IF guy getting solid playing time with a chance to force his way into more.

Time to thank Gleyber for his service and find him a new home. Glad he had a bit of a rebound this year.
 

jon abbey

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jon abbey

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It’s hard to not think that Cole is talking about the facial hair rules here first and foremost, no question in my mind that is the most obvious and easiest fix.

“But Cole said the talks did not get too deep into some of the more “philosophical” conversations that are set to take place this offseason — with Judge, who became more outspoken once the team was eliminated from playoff contention, recently referring to “some bigger-picture ideas and philosophies that maybe need to change.”“

https://nypost.com/2023/10/04/gerrit-cole-aaron-judge-and-i-will-have-input-on-fixing-yankees/
 

EvilEmpire

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After such a lousy season I would be shocked and disappointed if much of Cole's mental energy was spent on Yankees facial hair rules.

I'm sure it bugs some guys and I'll be happy enough if the Yankees get rid of it, but I just can't believe that angst over such an issue contributes to on-field problems. I mean, I spent 20 years working in a professional environment with even stricter grooming standards. It's annoying, but it really isn't that big a deal and I knew what I was signing up for. So do these guys.
 

jon abbey

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After such a lousy season I would be shocked and disappointed if much of Cole's mental energy was spent on Yankees facial hair rules.

I'm sure it bugs some guys and I'll be happy enough if the Yankees get rid of it, but I just can't believe that angst over such an issue contributes to on-field problems. I mean, I spent 20 years working in a professional environment with even stricter grooming standards. It's annoying, but it really isn't that big a deal and I knew what I was signing up for. So do these guys.
29 out of 30 teams do things differently, and players who are traded to NY have no real choice. It’s absurd, infuriating and IMO a reason why so many guys in recent years have performed better after leaving NY. Get it fixed.
 

EvilEmpire

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Yeah. Like I said, disappointing if elite professional athletes let something like that affect their performance.

I think the overwhelming reason that so many guys have underperformed in NY and then played better elsewhere just comes down to spotlight and pressure. Not sure I would put grooming standards on a top ten list.

Edit: but I sincerely hope the Yankees get rid of the rule and you post here after they win the world series next season and point to it as the reason why. :)
 
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jon abbey

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Edit: but I sincerely home the Yankees get rid of the rule and you post here after they win the world series next season and point to it as the reason why. :)
Heh, just seeing this edit now, I don't think it would miraculously change things but it's a game of tiny edges that can make all the difference, and having a more restrictive policy than the other 29 teams just seems like a self-inflicted wound.
 

EvilEmpire

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Heh, just seeing this edit now, I don't think it would miraculously change things but it's a game of tiny edges that can make all the difference, and having a more restrictive policy than the other 29 teams just seems like a self-inflicted wound.
I agree. Tiny edges is a good way to phrase it.

But now, more importantly:

Gleyber has had a few cryptic Twitter posts the last few days.
Seems clear that at a minimum, Cashman told Gleyber or his agent that he's going to get traded. I'd love to know if Cashman is close to a deal or already has one queued up and I'm genuinely curious what Gleyber could bring back after a solid bounce back season.
 

jon abbey

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NY has Peraza ready to get an everyday shot, and just as importantly they have Roderick Arias 1-2 years away and so they absolutely should not commit 6/120 or whatever it will take to keep Gleyber around. Yes, he's their second best hitter currently but he has a bunch of underlying issues:

1) He is much worse against RHP, which is NY's biggest lineup issue, .773 OPS this year against RHP and .921 against LHP.

2) His positional flexibility is nil, he is solely a 2B now.

3) His defense at 2B is weak, moving Volpe to 2B and Peraza to SS would be an instant upgrade at both positions. Volpe was pretty good at SS this year but everyone thinks Peraza is a notch better.

4) His baserunning is blatantly bad quite often, although somehow Statcast rates him as an average baserunner.

Cashman has overvalued Gleyber in past years in trade discussions, so also very curious what he can get for one year of Gleyber at around $15M (estimated arb). I think it will be addition by subtraction, possibly not right away, but it's something they need to do at some point and like many NY moves, it should have happened a year or two ago but better late than never.
 

EvilEmpire

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29 out of 30 teams do things differently, and players who are traded to NY have no real choice. It’s absurd, infuriating and IMO a reason why so many guys in recent years have performed better after leaving NY. Get it fixed.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/38632831/yankees-make-some-change-23-struggles-owner-says

"I want you to challenge everything, all of our philosophies, all of our practices, but more importantly, in a respectful way, I want you to challenge each other. I want you to critique each other. Check your egos at the door," he recalled.

"At times it got a little dicey, but it was respectful the entire time," Steinbrenner added. "And there wasn't one stone we left unturned, from health of the team, what we're doing in the clubhouse, clubhouse culture, what we do in the weight room, analytics, pro scouting, biomechanics, is there enough communication between everybody."
72361
 

ThePrideofShiner

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Every time Bryce Harper homers in the postseason, I'm reminded of how he was a lifelong Yankees fan who desperately wanted to sign in the Bronx. Instead, Cashman and company traded for Stanton and we are left with a broken, over-priced slugger who can't really play in the field.

Anyway, a big offseason awaits and I have no confidence in this front office or ownership group anymore.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Every time Bryce Harper homers in the postseason, I'm reminded of how he was a lifelong Yankees fan who desperately wanted to sign in the Bronx. Instead, Cashman and company traded for Stanton and we are left with a broken, over-priced slugger who can't really play in the field.

Anyway, a big offseason awaits and I have no confidence in this front office or ownership group anymore.
Don't forget the added bonus that Cashman said part of his reason was he could never see Harper as a 1b.
 

jon abbey

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Every time Bryce Harper homers in the postseason, I'm reminded of how he was a lifelong Yankees fan who desperately wanted to sign in the Bronx. Instead, Cashman and company traded for Stanton and we are left with a broken, over-priced slugger who can't really play in the field.

Anyway, a big offseason awaits and I have no confidence in this front office or ownership group anymore.
Honestly I think this is the worst kind of second-guessing. Harper at that point was a bad defensive outfielder and NY already had Judge and you can't really get away with a bad defensive LF in Yankee Stadium. Boras was Harper's agent and wanted to break all contract records, and Cashman saw a way to lock in cost certainty with what looked like a better player on a better contract than Harper would be getting, Stanton was coming off a 59 HR season and was a good defensive OF.

People forget that basically no one else wanted Harper and he ended up taking a much smaller AAV (just over $25M per year) to get a total amount that wouldn't be embarrassing after Boras had talked him up like that.
 

jon abbey

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Also Stanton was a full year before Harper hit FA, NY traded for him in Dec 2017 and Harper signed with the Phillies in March 2019. That is how dry his market was at the contract level he and Boras wanted, he didn't sign anywhere until March and PHI outbid themselves to finally sign him.
 

jon abbey

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Every time Bryce Harper homers in the postseason, I'm reminded of how he was a lifelong Yankees fan who desperately wanted to sign in the Bronx. Instead, Cashman and company traded for Stanton and we are left with a broken, over-priced slugger who can't really play in the field.

Anyway, a big offseason awaits and I have no confidence in this front office or ownership group anymore.
Just for curiosity's sake, I looked up the original Stanton trade thread from Dec 2017. I didn't hunt for your posts specifically, I did find this one from me immediately after the deal was finalized:

https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/giancarlo-stanton-traded-to-yankees.21792/page-4#post-2574654

"I think this was NY's thinking until a few days ago also, but the Stanton deal looks like it will be around 10/260, the prospects are still not specifically reported but seem to be guys who are years away, plus they got rid of Castro's 2/24 deal. Harper's deal could be close to double that."

So that was the thinking at the time, that Harper, similar to Soto now, would get maybe $450-500M the following offseason, and no guarantees that even in that range that NY would be the highest bidder.
 

ThePrideofShiner

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Maybe the better way to look at it for me is that the Yankees went for it and it didn't work out.

I still don't know if I trust Cashman anymore.

In other news, I keep seeing scuttlebutt about Soto being available. I'd do that depending on the package.
 
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EvilEmpire

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If the Yankees could have gotten the Philly deal with Harper early in the process I think I would have been pretty happy. Things just didn't line up. I don't blame Cashman for it. Stanton was a reasonable plan B on paper.

Seems like that could be said with quite a few Cashman moves. Looks good on paper, but too many of them don't work out.
 

jon abbey

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The Yankees definitely have some major problems they need to improve, but there's also a lot of good in there still. The wave of prospects on the way (already started with Volpe and Dominguez and Wells) is the most exciting one for NY in a long time, plus they have not traded any of the best ones. Just as impressively, NY traded 10 pitchers at the August 2022 deadline and has done an incredible job of restocking with 2021 and 2022 draft picks, guys who already seem ready to contribute if needed, but don't yet need to be added to the 40 man, the best of both worlds.

The problems are on the major league level, ideally utilizing the in-house talent, as I've been saying for a few years now. There are a lot of sub-discussions here, I'll bump some ongoing threads as the offseason progresses and get more into them.
 

EvilEmpire

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In other news, I keep seeing scuttlebutt about Soto being available. I'd do that depending on the package.
Coming back around to this. Assuming the price is affordable, and it probably won't be, what does Soto look like on this roster?

I love the lefty bat and the plate discipline, but his fielding isn't good. He seems to be a little better in RF than LF, and we all know LF at the stadium is challenging.

Would the Yankees move Judge to CF for next season and put Soto in right? Bader is gone and The Martian is injured. I guess that could work for a year, but I'd hate to see Judge in center too much and maybe break down more or faster.

Everyone here has probably been thinking plenty about the OF already, but the Soto question drives it home to me. The OF has some question marks unless the Yankees want to double down on the youth movement beyond what they already seem to doing with the infield.

Cashman has a lot of work to do.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, Bellinger makes more sense positionally, as he can cover CF while Dominguez is out, move to LF until Spencer Jones is ready and then replace Rizzo at 1B in 2025. He is solid to good defensively at all of those.
 

jon abbey

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This is a semi-big deal if true, Mike Axisa tried to figure out the arcane rules about players getting a 4th option year depending on injured time etc:

""Luis Gil reportedly has a fourth option and it looks like Yoendrys Gómez and Ben Rortvedt do as well, so they can all be sent to Triple-A next year without requiring waivers."

That is major for all of them, it means that NY can keep Wells and one of Trevino/Higgy (probably Trevino, sorry Higgy) and Rortvedt can be the 3rd catcher in AAA (although NY has some other options here and still might move him too). Gil is probably a reliever at this point, Gomez can stay in AAA and stretch out, a big boost to all three of them in terms of their futures in NY.
 

Yo La Tengo

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Honestly I think this is the worst kind of second-guessing. Harper at that point was a bad defensive outfielder and NY already had Judge and you can't really get away with a bad defensive LF in Yankee Stadium. Boras was Harper's agent and wanted to break all contract records, and Cashman saw a way to lock in cost certainty with what looked like a better player on a better contract than Harper would be getting, Stanton was coming off a 59 HR season and was a good defensive OF.

People forget that basically no one else wanted Harper and he ended up taking a much smaller AAV (just over $25M per year) to get a total amount that wouldn't be embarrassing after Boras had talked him up like that.
Curious why you think this is the worst kind of second guessing? At the time, it seemed that the Yankees chose Stanton rather than pursuing Harper or Machado, and my immediate reaction was that the Sox dodged a bullet.

Stanton missed, on average, 40 games a year over his 8 years before the trade and it seemed almost certain he was going to age very poorly. As for his defense as compared to Harper, my memory was that Harper had been exposed as a poor centerfielder but was roughly comparable to Stanton in right field, and, being 3 years older, Stanton was going to decline much faster. Harper's transition to first base changes that comparison moving forward.

Stanton has four more years on his deal, through age 37 (pretty sure NYY won't trigger that club option) while Harper has 8 more years, through age 38, so there is still time for Harper to fall apart, but, to date, those two deals have played out as predicted (I thought we'd see a couple more seasons like 2021 for Stanton rather than this very sharp decline, but I can imagine one more big year for him).

As for interest in Harper, the Nationals offered $300 million (very backloaded), the Giants offered something more than $300 million, the Dodgers offered something like $45 million a year for 5 years.
 

Yo La Tengo

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Also, I saw this tweet come up recently, which does invite criticism/second-guessing of Cashman when judging the Ellsbury-Stanton-Hicks timeline:

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jon abbey

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Curious why you think this is the worst kind of second guessing?
It just doesn't make much sense to me, you could do it with literally every team in baseball. For instance, if PHI wins tonight, the two shortstops in the World Series will be Trae Turner and Corey Seager, the Dodgers' shortstops for the previous seven seasons combined, who had over 10 regular season bWAR between them this season. And who did the Dodgers, the consensus current smartest organization in MLB, play the most at SS this year? Correct, Miguel Rojas and his .612 OPS.

Anyway, Boras' big contract talk with Harper scared off Cashman, he didn't want to spend $500M on Harper and a year before his FA, it looked like that's what it might take. So he went for the already locked in $23M AAV of Stanton (also as protection against potentially losing Judge in FA a few years later) and it has turned out pretty badly, although it's funny that people get so excited about what an incredible postseason hitter Bryce Harper is (and he is, 1.018 career OPS in 211 PAs) and forget entirely that Stanton has looked like this week's version of Adolis Garcia at times in the postseason himself (11 HRs in 96 career playoff ABs, .963 OPS in 110 career PAs).

But yes, having Stanton under contract through 2027 looks terrible now, as do a pretty large percentage of big money MLB deals. I think figuring out which guys to give big money to might be the hardest part of a GM/PBO's job, and in a way smaller market teams are lucky they don't have to deal with those decisions very often.

As a side note, Boras definitely hurts his clients sometimes by throwing around outlandish numbers early on in the process and scaring teams off.
 

Yo La Tengo

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I think deciding who to pay is the most important job for each team's top executive, and they definitely deserve criticism when they screw it up, including the Dodgers for their handling of the SS position (although they can't really be held responsible for the injury to Lux).

Look at the teams still playing: great decisions by management put them on the cusp of the World Series. I was skeptical of TX signing Seager and Semien, but they have been great. Houston made the right call in letting Correa walk. Dombrowski has put PHI a game away from the WS with his typical aggressive approach (the bullpen might again be his undoing) and Arizona has taken a very different route, including walking away from Bumgarner, their big free agent signing, and having Marte and Carrol pacing the team.

Anyway, I think that criticizing management for bad free agent signings is EXACTLY what we should be doing.
 

jon abbey

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Look at the teams still playing: great decisions by management put them on the cusp of the World Series. I was skeptical of TX signing Seager and Semien, but they have been great. Houston made the right call in letting Correa walk. Dombrowski has put PHI a game away from the WS with his typical aggressive approach (the bullpen might again be his undoing) and Arizona has taken a very different route, including walking away from Bumgarner, their big free agent signing, and having Marte and Carrol pacing the team.
Hmm, the flip side to this is none of them even made the playoffs by more than a couple of games, none of them won more than 90 games in the regular season, TEX spent huge money on deGrom only to have him instantly go down, HOU let Verlander walk and then had to send their two best prospects to get him back from NYM mid-season, Dombrowski got lucky that Rhys Hoskins has been hurt all season as it allowed them to drastically upgrade the defense, and ARI went 84-78.

Anyway, I think that criticizing management for bad free agent signings is EXACTLY what we should be doing.
I prefer first-guessing, if something seems dumb when it happens and then it ends up dumb, that's the time to be critical IMO. That's maybe just me though (not trying to be obnoxious).