2023 Patriots Pass Catchers/Offense Discussion

[Dr. Gonzo]

The discussion regarding this group is in multiple threads but I'm curious what happens after the Dallas game when Thornton is eligible to return. Focusing only on WRs, the target leaders through three weeks are:

• Bourne - 25 targets
• JuJu - 16 targets
• Douglas - 12 targets
• Parker - 11 targets
• Boutte - 4 targets

Boutte, like yesterday, will be an inactive most games. When Parker is healthy, he is not coming off the field very much. Is Thornton strictly a boundary receiver and where do his snaps come from when he is back?

A lot of others here provide great analysis. With the offensive line stabilizing, what is the best group of pass catchers to have on the field and where should they be lining up to play to those player's strengths?

 

[BaseballJones]

Mac is averaging 250 yards passing a game so far (249.3 technically) and 1.7 TD. That projects to 4,238 yards and 28 TD over a 17-game season, which would be career highs for him.

Personally I'd like to see more Parker, Bourne, and Douglas. But I also want to really see what Thornton can do. He doesn't have to catch many passes AS LONG AS he can be a legit deep threat that forces defenses to adjust, which will open up other areas of the field for the other guys. He just needs to be a legit threat is all.

 

[Cellar-Door]

So looking at some other stats:

Success%
Parker 54.5
Douglas 50
Juju- 50
Bourne 40
Boutte 0

Catch %
Parker 72.7
Juju 62.5
DOuglas 58.3
Bourne 56
Boutte 0

Average Depth of Target
Boutte 21
Bourne 14.9
Douglas 12.9
Parker 9.1
Juju 5.5

Yards before catch per reception
Douglas 6.9
Bourne 6.9
Parker 5.1
Juju 3.7


Yards After Catch per reception
Parker 4.4
Douglas 3.7
Bourne 3.0
Juju 2.9


My big takeaway is Bourne is getting far too shitty results for his target share (though skewed a bit by Parker missing game 1), and also they are using him as a bit of the deep threat which he isn't.
If Thornton comes back ready to go I would guess he'll take some snaps from just about everyone, but in particular he'll take those deep shot routes from Bourne and hopefully be less terrible (some of it is Mac's throws too, lot of stuff he's been better on this year, deep shots I don't think are one of them).

Boutte is also interesting, he caught nothing, but they went to him 4 times and down the field a good ways in limited snaps. I think both will add some dynamism.

Juju.... woof. They are just throwing him nothing but short stuff, and he's not doing enough YAC work for that to make sense.

Edit- also, only looked at WRs since despite the post title the OP only had WRs. The TEs have both been good and probably better than any of the WRs.. the RBs have been trash out of the backfield generally.

 

[Saints Rest]

It seems like BOB wants to keep two TE's on the field a lot of the time and at least one RB. Combine that with Pharaoh's increased usage last week, as well as the frequency of having Rham and Zeke on the field at the same time, and there seems to be fewer snaps available for WRs. That is going to eat into the usage quite a bit.

 

[Cellar-Door]

It seems like BOB wants to keep two TE's on the field a lot of the time and at least one RB. Combine that with Pharaoh's increased usage last week, as well as the frequency of having Rham and Zeke on the field at the same time, and there seems to be fewer snaps available for WRs. That is going to eat into the usage quite a bit.

yep, though one question will be.... did they keep extra TEs in because:
1. they want to
2. They need the help for the O-line
3. The TEs are good and the WRs have not been.

If it's 3, then Thornton might change that some if he shows a different dynamic (or if Boutte/Douglas improve).

I think part of the 2 TE thing is honestly that Mike Gesicki is a better receiver than most of our WRs.

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

It seems like BOB wants to keep two TE's on the field a lot of the time and at least one RB. Combine that with Pharaoh's increased usage last week, as well as the frequency of having Rham and Zeke on the field at the same time, and there seems to be fewer snaps available for WRs. That is going to eat into the usage quite a bit.

Pharaoh Brown had some snaps yesterday at FB as well. With the FB phased out recently when Jakob Johnson departed, curious to see if this is just a one game shift or we see more of it going forward.

 

[Saints Rest]

yep, though one question will be.... did they keep extra TEs in because:
1. they want to
2. They need the help for the O-line
3. The TEs are good and the WRs have not been.

If it's 3, then Thornton might change that some if he shows a different dynamic (or if Boutte/Douglas improve).

I think part of the 2 TE thing is honestly that Mike Gesicki is a better receiver than most of our WRs.

I think that BOB and BB both like a 12 alignment so that they can run or pass from that alignment. And that may be exactly why they signed Gesicki.

 

[Saints Rest]

Pharaoh Brown had some snaps yesterday at FB as well. With the FB phased out recently when Jakob Johnson departed, curious to see if this is just a one game shift or we see more of it going forward.

Exactly what I was referencing in terms of his increased usage. IOW, there were a few 3 TE snaps, further limiting snaps for WRs.

 

[Saints Rest]

Looking at snap counts yesterday, there were 72 offensive snaps, so that's 360 snaps available for skill players. TE's and RB's combined for 195, and WR's for 165, split up among just 4 players.

 

[Jungleland]

My expectations are low, but I'm anxious to see what Thornton can provide. They desperately need a credible deep threat to keep the defense honest, and I think the presence of one is going to help Bourne be utilized in a way more beneficial for what he's good at. Watching yesterday I almost felt like they missed Agholor, which is saying a lot.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

This thread might be a better place for this post:

Maybe I just hadn't noticed them the last two weeks, or maybe the Patriots have gotten away from them for other reasons (gameplan specific, saving for later in the season, etc), but...

In week one, Mac was successful on a handful of plays designed to stress one individual player on defense. That idea - stressing one player to choose between 2 options - is obviously common. But the Patriots were doing it the same way consistently, and I found it interesting enough to make a mental note whenever I noticed it. I was actually going to bring it up after the game, but things got away from me and I figured we'd see it more, as they had success with it.

The Patriots were isolating defensive players by having receivers run the same route next to each other. This is common for layer routes - ie, a WR or TE runs a 5 yard in, the receiver next to him runs an 8 yard in - and I did notice them run a few of these layer routes throughout the game. But they also had success on other routes using the same concept. For example, on one of Bourne's TDs, they ran a double post with Bourne and Gesecki:

View: https://youtu.be/th4-GRqkBD4?si=mePt0jV9LqRVMEFk


During this drive and the one that preceeded it - both long drives ending in TDs - I noticed this concept at least three or four times.

As I said earlier, maybe it was game specific. Maybe they're still running them but teams have gameplanned them away. Maybe I'm just not noticing them during the last few games live. But it was so succesful that I went from pointing it out to my BIL live, to not noticing it at all over the last 2 weeks.

Not sure what my point is. Anyone who spends time breaking their plays down this year notice this or know what's up?

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

This thread might be a better place for this post:

Maybe I just hadn't noticed them the last two weeks, or maybe the Patriots have gotten away from them for other reasons (gameplan specific, saving for later in the season, etc), but...

In week one, Mac was successful on a handful of plays designed to stress one individual player on defense. That idea - stressing one player to choose between 2 options - is obviously common. But the Patriots were doing it the same way consistently, and I found it interesting enough to make a mental note whenever I noticed it. I was actually going to bring it up after the game, but things got away from me and I figured we'd see it more, as they had success with it.

The Patriots were isolating defensive players by having receivers run the same route next to each other. This is common for layer routes - ie, a WR or TE runs a 5 yard in, the receiver next to him runs an 8 yard in - and I did notice them run a few of these layer routes throughout the game. But they also had success on other routes using the same concept. For example, on one of Bourne's TDs, they ran a double post with Bourne and Gesecki:

View: https://youtu.be/th4-GRqkBD4?si=mePt0jV9LqRVMEFk


During this drive and the one that preceeded it - both long drives ending in TDs - I noticed this concept at least three or four times.

As I said earlier, maybe it was game specific. Maybe they're still running them but teams have gameplanned them away. Maybe I'm just not noticing them during the last few games live. But it was so succesful that I went from pointing it out to my BIL live, to not noticing it at all over the last 2 weeks.

Not sure what my point is. Anyone who spends time breaking their plays down this year notice this or know what's up?

The TD to Henry also seemed to be that concept.

Yesterday, on a couple of successful plays over the middle, they ran some shallow crosses, with a deeper cross (I think those are the terms). But basically pull the MLB one way, and then it opens something 10 yards deeper. I think it was a Bourne catch that Mac rifled the ball in as an example.

Or I could be totally airballing your point. That is likely for me.

 

[smokin joe wood]

New England offensive ranks through three games:

Win Probability Added on Passes (incl. sacks): 32nd (of 32)
% of 20+ yard plays: 32nd
Time per play: 1st in NFL (fastest offense in the league! ha.)

 

[SMU_Sox]

A lot of their concepts are clear-outs followed by the real target. So like when they run two digs or two posts or levels (multiple in-breakers) or dagger (go and a dig) there is the one guy who clears someone, usually the safety, and the other man has the right leverage against his target to be open. It depends on what the defense is but a lot of these result in the safety having to choose between taking a high route or a low route.

I think you saw that against the Fins but against the Jets not as much. They still run a lot of the staples like Smash, Stick, hoss-y-juke, etc. Against the Jets I think you're right that there were fewer high-lows and more designed shots but that's based on two guys I know looking at the tape. I haven't had a lot of time to digest it. Probably Wednesday night for me.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Evan Lazar commented that looking at this offense, you either think that the system is working and one the guys get used to it they will start making plays... or that they system is working and the team's poor record on offense shows that they just don't have the personnel even with a good system.

After 3 games, the offense is a +43. They have scored 50 points and given up one TD (the Slay interception of Mac).

The defenses they have played against:

• Jets defense allowed 16 points to the Bills, 30 to the Cowboys, and 13 to the Pats, average 20.
• Miami defense allowed 34 to the Chargers, 17 to the Pats, 13 to the Broncos, average 21.
• Philly defense allowed 20 to the Pats (but scored 7), 28 to the Vikings, and 11 to Tampa (but scored 2). That's avg 20, or 17 if you factor in the defensive points.

These defenses have been pretty good overall, but the Pats have fared worse than most of their other opponents.

Dallas' defense is better: They had a shutout where they scored a defensive TD, allowed 10 points in a win, and allowed 28 points in a loss. Average 13, or 10 if you factor in their own points.

Can't be optimistic about this game if you are NE.

 

[KingChre]

Evan Lazar commented that looking at this offense, you either think that the system is working and one the guys get used to it they will start making plays... or that they system is working and the team's poor record on offense shows that they just don't have the personnel even with a good system.

After 3 games, the offense is a +43. They have scored 50 points and given up one TD (the Slay interception of Mac).

The defenses they have played against:

• Jets defense allowed 16 points to the Bills, 30 to the Cowboys, and 13 to the Pats, average 20.
• Miami defense allowed 34 to the Chargers, 17 to the Pats, 13 to the Broncos, average 21.
• Philly defense allowed 20 to the Pats (but scored 7), 28 to the Vikings, and 11 to Tampa (but scored 2). That's avg 20, or 17 if you factor in the defensive points.

These defenses have been pretty good overall, but the Pats have fared worse than most of their other opponents.

Dallas' defense is better: They had a shutout where they scored a defensive TD, allowed 10 points in a win, and allowed 28 points in a loss. Average 13, or 10 if you factor in their own points.

Can't be optimistic about this game if you are NE.

I actually am sort of optimistic about this week for a few reasons. First and foremost, the Cowboys offensive line is also banged up. I think the Patriots are going to make Dak's life miserable. Additionally, I think the Philly game in a way was good preparation for the Cowboys D as they also thrive on getting pressure up front and generating mistakes.

I think Mac is going to throw for about 350 yards on about 60 attempts, and they can have some success running the ball against the Cowboys front out of spread formations. Trevon Diggs injury is a big deal as well.

Barring any unanticipated injury news, I am definitely taking the Patriots in this one. I'm not typically one for score prognostication but let's say something like 20-17.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Wasn't sire sure the thread for it, but interesting pull quote from Bourne about last year and some of the change off the field that have lead to him playing more and better this season

View: https://twitter.com/LosTalksPats/status/1718286557118136595?t=y8Qmzcjjwe5lt1Aiql_OtQ&s=19

 

[tims4wins]

Could post this in multiple places, but with Thornton inactive today, I think we can officially call him a bust.

 

[IdiotKicker]

Let’s not put him in Canton yet.

 

[riboflav]

Wasn't sire sure the thread for it, but interesting pull quote from Bourne about last year and some of the change off the field that have lead to him playing more and better this season

View: https://twitter.com/LosTalksPats/status/1718286557118136595?t=y8Qmzcjjwe5lt1Aiql_OtQ&s=19

This is an illustrative example of why when posters trash the coaching staff from the outside (not playing Bourne is fireable!), some of us push back that you are not in the locker and meeting rooms and have next to no idea what's going on.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

On Mac's TD pass to Bourne, Miami actually doubled Pop Douglas.

View: https://twitter.com/_AndrewCallahan/status/1718738120043045171?s=20

The Dolphins doubled Pop Douglas on that 3rd down. Bourne beat his man, ran into open space and scored. Pop Douglas on getting double-teamed: "I was shocked. I didn't think I would get doubled this early. ... That's crazy."

Miami's clearly came into the game with an effective plan for Douglas. He was targeted 7 times and had 5 catches for 25 yards (long of 13) and he also ran a jet sweep 4 yards. His first catch was a 5 yard loss. When the threw it to him in the flat, Miami was ready for it. I think Douglas is one of those "more quick than fast" guys.

But, in any case, it is just good to have an offensive player that teams think they have to plan for.

 

[8slim]

Could post this in multiple places, but with Thornton inactive today, I think we can officially call him a bust.

Total bust. There should be a Pats all time WR bust thread.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Hopkins had three TD’s today. He is now over 500 yards, which is more than 5x greater than JuJu.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Hopkins had three TD’s today. He is now over 500 yards, which is more than 5x greater than JuJu.

But people assured me this offseason that he was cooked. I just don’t get it.

 

[8slim]

But people assured me this offseason that he was cooked. I just don’t get it.

Juju is a YAC machine!

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Juju is a YAC machine!

Haha. I don’t know how many are after the catch, but it can’t be many since he’s averaging 5.9 yards per reception. Which is hard to do for a WR!

 

[8slim]

Haha. I don’t know how many are after the catch, but it can’t be many since he’s averaging 5.9 yards per reception. Which is hard to do for a WR!

I was just exaggerating what was said about him this past off-season.

This season he’s been a YUCK machine.

I’ll be here all week, be sure to tip your waitress.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I was just exaggerating what was said about him this past off-season.

This season he’s been a YUCK machine.

I’ll be here all week, be sure to tip your waitress.

Oh, I’m with you. I totally get it.

 

[Old Fart Tree]

Haha. I don’t know how many are after the catch, but it can’t be many since he’s averaging 5.9 yards per reception. Which is hard to do for a WR!

It’d be great, provided that he’s catching each ball approximately where the punter stands pre snap.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I found it amusing in a "outside of superstars WRs are situation dependent" way, but a bunch of clued in people were talking about how the Chiefs should make a WR trade because they haven't been able to find anyone who could replace what Juju gave them last year. Guy was a key part of the SB winning team's offense and now he's on the verge of falling out of the WR rotation on a team that is 1-6 and has one of the bottom 5-7 WR corps in the league.

 

[rodderick]

I found it amusing in a "outside of superstars WRs are situation dependent" way, but a bunch of clued in people were talking about how the Chiefs should make a WR trade because they haven't been able to find anyone who could replace what Juju gave them last year. Guy was a key part of the SB winning team's offense and now he's on the verge of falling out of the WR rotation on a team that is 1-6 and has one of the bottom 5-7 WR corps in the league.

I think the knee injury he suffered in the AFCCG destroyed any remaining burst he had. I didn't find him impressive with the Chiefs last year, thought he struggled mightily to get open vs. man and most of his best plays came late in the down after finding soft spots in zones with Mahomes buying time, but he was significantly more explosive and more physical with the ball in his hands. Now he doesn't seem to have even that.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I found it amusing in a "outside of superstars WRs are situation dependent" way, but a bunch of clued in people were talking about how the Chiefs should make a WR trade because they haven't been able to find anyone who could replace what Juju gave them last year. Guy was a key part of the SB winning team's offense and now he's on the verge of falling out of the WR rotation on a team that is 1-6 and has one of the bottom 5-7 WR corps in the league.

Hey, 2-6!

 

[streeter88]

Hey, 2-6!

Honest mistake…

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

These numbers seem about right, unfortunately. These build off the Orlovsky tweet below. The numbers are Next Gen Stats, it appears.

Is this talent, scheme, or both? Good luck to whoever the QB is next year. While the cap space is nice, you still need to overhaul almost the entire OL and you have one talented pass catcher who, so far, has been dinged up every few games.

View: https://twitter.com/ezlazar/status/1725549009392095596?s=20


Lazar:

#Patriots offense ranks this season:

Open receiver rate - 30th (41%)
Wide open receiver rate - 31st (17.5%)
Tight-window throw rate - 30th (18.9%)
Pass-blocking win rate - 32nd (44%)



View: https://twitter.com/danorlovsky7/status/1725485628878397669?s=20


Orlovsky:

By numbers

Patriots pass pro: worst of any team in last 4 seasons

Patriots target separation: worst of any team in last 3 seasons

Not hyperbole—ONE OF THE WORST QB SITUATIONS OVER THE LAST DECADE

Player development is impossible in this situation

 

[BaseballJones]

I am not sure if that's true. But if it is (and let's assume it is), then no matter who the QB is in 2024, these things need to get fixed in a MAJOR way.

Is it play design? Guys not able to get open or pass block because of the scheme?

Or is it just dreadful players?

JuJu, yards of separation:
- 2022: 3.3 (with an average cushion of 5.7 yards) - 7.4 average air yards per target
- 2023: 2.7 (with an average cushion of 7.5 yards) - 5.5 average air yards per target

So playing with KC, JuJu had an average cushion of 5.7 yards, ran an average pattern 7.4 yards downfield, and still managed 3.3 yards of separation. And this year with NE, JuJu has had an average fusion of 7.5 yards, ran an average pattern of 5.5 yards downfield, and has only managed 2.7 yards of separation.

So is this scheme? Or is this JuJu falling off a cliff physically?

 

[rodderick]

NGS separation is so useless, Juju's 2.7 is exactly the same as Stefon Diggs' and Justin Jefferson's.

 

[Cellar-Door]

NGS separation is so useless, Juju's 2.7 is exactly the same as Stefon Diggs' and Justin Jefferson's.

Because they only look at routes where you get targeted.
Their passblock stats are straight garbage too.
A couple people pointed it out in the replies, but the better stats (PFF among them) have the Patriots better in all categories than that.

Orlovsky is just doing PR for his guy. The Patriots situation is not good, but it isn't close to the worst in the league the last 4 years, or even this year.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

Does Orlovsky have a personal connection to Mac, is it reflexive defense of a fellow QB, or is he just zagging?

 

[Cellar-Door]

Does Orlovsky have a personal connection to Mac, is it reflexive defense of a fellow QB, or is he just zagging?

Orlovsky has worked with Jones in the past, they have a personal connection. Though also Orlovsky is notorious for blaming any and everyone other than the QB.

 

[BaseballJones]

NGS separation is so useless, Juju's 2.7 is exactly the same as Stefon Diggs' and Justin Jefferson's.

That's fair, but there HAS to be a way to know (and even quantify) how good a job receivers do at actually getting open, right? Since that's an important part of their job.

If this doesn't quantify it, what's a better metric, and/or how should we be able to determine this other than the old eye test (when in all honesty, we really don't know)?

 

[rodderick]

That's fair, but there HAS to be a way to know (and even quantify) how good a job receivers do at actually getting open, right? Since that's an important part of their job.

If this doesn't quantify it, what's a better metric, and/or how should we be able to determine this other than the old eye test (when in all honesty, we really don't know)?

Why do we need to quantify it with anything other than the eye test? Can you recall many cases of a guy that was paid as a great route runner who couldn't actually get open? Measuring separation by distance to the closest defender when the ball arrives as NGS does is meaningless. At least my eyes tell me Justin Jefferson runs better routes and has better short area quickness than Juju.

 

[johnmd20]

At least my eyes tell me Justin Jefferson runs better routes and has better short area quickness than Juju.

I mean, obviously.

Jefferson can also fight for the ball and make contested catches. Juju cannot. In fact, every Patriots WR cannot make contested catches. Most of them bounce off their hands for INTs.

In the end, Mac sucks (deer in headlights, scared, can't run, is as quick as a turtle, weak arm, terrible anticipation) and the WRs suck (bad hands, bad body control, inability to make sideline catches, inability to get open) and the line sucks (sieves are more repellant) that is why this team is one of the worst in the NFL. The problems run the gamut.