In a class that's supposed to not be anywhere near as good. With either a middle of the round pick, which is how you get Mac Jones, or you draft someone too high. Or you have to pay a king's ransom to move up if someone does pop.
2024 Mock Drafts are more fun than this boring, awful Patriots Team
- Thread starter Rico Guapo
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Yeah, I mean the trade down is always going to look better because you're getting more talent. One of the best ways I find to compare is simple. I say... which of these looks better, this draft with Bailey Zappe as my starting QB again or the other draft with the QB. You need to think that way (and maybe still like the trade down) because otherwise you trick yourself into assuming you're getting good QB play elsewhere (probably not happening).
An interesting tidbit from Albert Breer's article this morning - "This year, only 58 underclassmen declared for the draft. That was the smallest number since 2011, and nearly 100 fewer than the 144 that declared for the ’19 draft."
This is likely due to the NIL wave hitting. Underclassmen looking at mid- to -later round picks can make enough in NIL money to play college ball another year and hopefully improve their draft stock next year. This is probably a one-year situation as the system transitions to many fewer underclassman leaving & more seeing out their eligibility.
This will make the end of this draft trickier. Maybe more teams look to bail on Day 3 this year and trade for 2025 picks? Might be more low-ceiling 5th (and COVID 6th) year seniors to sort through.
This is likely due to the NIL wave hitting. Underclassmen looking at mid- to -later round picks can make enough in NIL money to play college ball another year and hopefully improve their draft stock next year. This is probably a one-year situation as the system transitions to many fewer underclassman leaving & more seeing out their eligibility.
This will make the end of this draft trickier. Maybe more teams look to bail on Day 3 this year and trade for 2025 picks? Might be more low-ceiling 5th (and COVID 6th) year seniors to sort through.
Getting Joe Milton in the late rounds would be interesting. He has the classic measurables that you look for in a quarterback, and a rocket right arm. He also fires every pass and does not put a lot of touch on the ball, and it looked like this lead to some incompletions and interceptions.
He is also a bit older than most seniors at 24. From what I have read, he would be best served in a developmental role at first and isn't someone you would want to start in week 1. He has that "easy cheese" to use a Dennis Eckersley term. Quick, smooth action and the ball jumps out of his hand. There has to be an OC out there that saw his film and believes that he is only 1 or 2 adjustments away from being a good NFL QB.
He is also a bit older than most seniors at 24. From what I have read, he would be best served in a developmental role at first and isn't someone you would want to start in week 1. He has that "easy cheese" to use a Dennis Eckersley term. Quick, smooth action and the ball jumps out of his hand. There has to be an OC out there that saw his film and believes that he is only 1 or 2 adjustments away from being a good NFL QB.
The best description of him I heard was I believe Klassen....
He has no idea where the ball is going and he has no idea how to play football.
I am more assuming a free agent QB (like Cousins), + mid 1st round OT (trade back), + 2nd round WR, + an extra 1st next year and an extra 2nd this year (from a trade back) feels better to me over the 3rd QB in the draft, + 2nd round OT, plus a free agent WR and/or a free agent OT.
I just don’t feel like a great rookie QB fixes this offense if one of OT or WR goes unaddressed and I’m not sure that there are ways to address OT or WR through free agency. I do think we may be able to address QB through free agency and then supplement with OT and WR in the draft.
Yeah see that's not a reasonable assumption. Cousins isn't coming here, zero point zero percent chance. That's where these fall apart, you aren't getting a good starting QB in FA this year (or most years).
Who?
Here's the list:
Cousins: likely no interest in NE, coming off major injury, 36 years old.
Tannehill: no thanks, obvious stop gap, still need actual QB
Brissett: would love him as backup guy/guy starts a few weeks ahead of draft pick
Trubinsky
T. Taylor
Mariota
Darnold
Lock
Mayfield (likely back in TB)
Minshew
Bridgewater
Huntley
Nothing on that list strikes me as "addressing" the QB spot.
Is it really unreasonable to think we could sign Cousins? We have a ton of space in the salary cap.
Yes. He'll get paid wherever he wants, but he's also been unwilling to waive his no trade for family reasons, he ended up in MIN in part because he targeted a dome team, and all indications are his list in MIN, ATL and nothing else. There isn't any real reason he would at his age want to come to a full rebuild outdoors in a cold climate.
We have three big needs (QB, OT, WR) and three methods to address those needs (a major free agent signing, 1st round pick, and the 2nd round pick). I would consider secondary signings and later draft picks to be supplemental options. So, six options:
A major free agent signing at QB
1st round OT
2nd round WR
A major free agent signing at QB
1st round WR
2nd round OT
A major free agent signing at WR
1st round QB
2nd round OT
A major free agent signing at WR
1st round OT
2nd round QB
A major free agent signing at OT
1st round QB
2nd round WR
A major free agent signing at OT
1st round WR
2nd round QB
A major free agent signing at QB
1st round OT
2nd round WR
A major free agent signing at QB
1st round WR
2nd round OT
A major free agent signing at WR
1st round QB
2nd round OT
A major free agent signing at WR
1st round OT
2nd round QB
A major free agent signing at OT
1st round QB
2nd round WR
A major free agent signing at OT
1st round WR
2nd round QB
But if you trade down, in theory you could draft all three positions.
For instance, if you trade with Atlanta, you might pick up 8 and 43 (and a 2025 1st rounder).
Then you could take some combination of QB-WR-OT with those picks.
So I would note, WR is the only one of the 3 you can reasonably sign a "major free agent".
Though also... you're not going to get an elite guy at each of those 3 positions, it's not a reasonable expectation.
To me the question is a simple one.... which position do you want an elite guy at most, and where do you have some expectation you could get an elite guy next year?
Say you draft your QB at 3.... you might get an elite guy at 34 (maybe after a year), you can sign very good guys in FA at WR (maybe OT). Next year you should be in position to draft a WR or OT who has elite upside. I don't think the same about QB.
You can trade down in the second instead and still probably pick up another top-100 pick and your franchise QB at #3.
There looks to be some good WR talent all through the first 3 rounds. Also, if you're not picking a QB trading down to get multiple picks makes alot of sense. Finally you can address some of those needs next year, this is not a one year rebuild.
If the Patriots draft falls like this one did - I only ran the first five rounds - I will be thrilled. For this mock, I assumed they sign big $$$ defensive FAs - DL (Brian Burns) and CB (Snead from KC) and went all offense:
- 3. Jayden Daniels
QB LSU - 34. Kingsley Suamataia
OT BYU - 68. Roman Wilson
WR Michigan - 104. Cade Stover
TE Ohio State - 136. MarShawn Lloyd
RB USC
Traded back and got the Giants and Atlantas 2nd round picks. I really like the idea of pairing Odunze and Penix.
https://nfldraft.theringer.com/mock-draft?list=heifetz&_ga=2.26711485.1694486281.1708861244-1728798316.1650597918
Definitely would not be popular the day of; this would only work if they had a different (and very convincing) plan for QB.
Definitely would not be popular the day of; this would only work if they had a different (and very convincing) plan for QB.
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I mean.... trading out of 3 for not much if any premium so they can take a guard at 14 is.... something.
They would have the LV R1 picks in 25 and 26, which are likely to be premium/high, but I would hope they'd also get the 24 R2 pick or something for that big a drop. Would take a lot of confidence for a new regime to try this approach.
I mean, I’d believe it more if they took Latham or Guyton. But still, this is a new regime. We aren’t likely to see Belichick type deals in their very first draft.
I REALLY want Legette. I spent some of yesterday getting familiar with his YT tape, and it’s insane. Big, physical, fast, runs routes all over the field and just dusts the DB’s after the catch. If the first three rounds of the draft played out this way I’d cry myself to sleep. I prefer Maye, but would love this outcome more.
With that said, there’s no way Daniels drops to #8, but weirder things have happened.
With that said, there’s no way Daniels drops to #8, but weirder things have happened.
Part of the risk of trading down from 3 is that if that QB hits, not only have you missed out on a great QB, but those picks you’re getting back will lose a lot of value
If Daniels (or Maye) is even halfway decent, the Raiders won’t be drafting top 5/10 most likely
Look at Houston’s deal with Arizona last year.
Of course, it could be a Carolina/Chicago situation as well. But assuming you’re getting premium first round picks back in future years is misguided IMO.
yeah it's usually safest to just assume they'll be mid-round, that's how the trade charts usually do it
I was curious... that's the college guys not their normal NFL draft guys. Interesting insight, but I'd guess the Sikkema ones are probably more likely to be accurate.
It's going to be fucking fascinating to see what runs happen. If there's a run on WR, tackles will fall and vice versa. If it's more chalk, we'll have decent options at both positions at both 34 and 68 (and possibly at 104, although I might be alone in that belief). But it is conceivable that the league goes receiver-bonkers and tackles drop precipitously.
Where do people here fall on the Senior Bowl? IIRC, Legette had a particularly poor showing there, no? Does it not bother anyone? Are college game tape and testing significantly more telling? Genuinely asking.
Senior Bowl has value, especially for small school guys, get to see them compete against top athletes. Tape matters most, but SB can add context (for example people wanted to see Quinyon Mitchell play press, they played zone at his school almost all the time).
Legette had a rough week, but what hurt him most was that his measurements were a lie. People wanted to comp him to DK Metcalf, but it turned out he's 2+ inches shorter than listed so he's closer to Juju Smith Schuster sized than DK Metcalf.
I’m interested to see if the scarcity of tackle talent in the league and free agency (along with the bad contracts given to the big money tackles last year) prompts a run on tackles in round 1 and pushes some of the WR’s down the board
So I lied about no more mocks....
I was messing around with the Jeremiah hypo where they trade 34 for Fields then trade 3 for 6, 39, 47 and NYG 2025 2nd.
PFN
No tradeback after 6:
Tradeback from 6:
MDD
No trade back from 6
(plus NYG 2025 2nd round pick)
Tradeback from 6:
(Plus NYG 2025 2nd and CIN 2025 3rd)
Interesting exercise, I don't think I like Fields enough and I DO like the top 3 QBs enough to prefer them, but it does provide some real talent influx if you believe in Fields
I was messing around with the Jeremiah hypo where they trade 34 for Fields then trade 3 for 6, 39, 47 and NYG 2025 2nd.
PFN
No tradeback after 6:
Tradeback from 6:
MDD
No trade back from 6
(plus NYG 2025 2nd round pick)
Tradeback from 6:
(Plus NYG 2025 2nd and CIN 2025 3rd)
Interesting exercise, I don't think I like Fields enough and I DO like the top 3 QBs enough to prefer them, but it does provide some real talent influx if you believe in Fields
CB is another position where a run on the position seems likely - mid- to late-first round? - because the positional value keeps going up and the top tier of players are pretty clustered together at the moment - Arnold, Kool-Aid, Mitchell, DeJean, and Wiggins. Maybe they’ll sort out a bit after the combine and there will definitely be some beauty in the eye and all that. Even Rakestraw will have fans among the zone-heavy teams (as well as for his awesome name).
The double tradeback to 13 or 18 is too much for me. Maybe to 6 and then to 10 or something still gives you a chance to get Bowers or a better OT. Hopefully you can still get a 2025 R1 pick. I'd explore this but they better be sold on their QB plan. Otherwise we'll have the pea shooter weaponizing our offense.
That draft would be legitimately hilarious.Here's a wild one I just did. Trading out of the first round for a ton of second-round picks, plus what would likely be an absolutely insane first round next year. All three of those teams could be giving up a top-five pick next year—top ten would be an almost certainty. And I didn't have to give up a single Patriots draft pick next year for any of this.
Trading/ signing a Fields/ Murray/ Cousins/ Brissett to let Rattler develop for a year or two would also be happening with a draft like this.
If the Raiders were attaching their ‘24 second rounder as well as a future one on top of the future firsts it would be OK. But drafting a G would be a poor use of a mid first. If they traded down again after that sort of deal for more day 2/day 3 picks and grabbed a T I could live with it. Overall The Ringer’s proposed trades seem awfully light on return. The Minnesota/NE rumor said that three firsts were the starting point for a trade down to 11, not the end point. He’s got LV moving two spots further for just that.
Given that Minnesota is looking to move up for a QB and has rumors of a move to #3 and rumors that they’re looking to move JJ, if you could land JJ and a passel of picks, draft either Bowers or a T at #11, it might make New England an attractive landing spot for Wilson when he gets released. You can draft a QB prospect later, like Rattler, and still have enough picks to take more shots down the line.
I think Heifetz just used the chart. I think 13 and two future 1s is almost exactly chart value, actually a little more maybe? But he should have used the 2021 draft which was 12, two 1sts and a 3rd for 3. So probably about a 3rd short.
I think this is much more likely than a run on WRs. I know Mahomes is singular but we just saw them win their second SB since letting Tyreek go and investing in their line. (And the only SB they lost was because their line was decimated.) The intelligent teams will count on developing WR talent being much easier than coaching up lesser O-line prospects without the right measureables.
I think it can be extremely beneficial for players from small schools. The RB from UNH Dylan Laube really benefitted from playing at the Senior Bowl. It will be interesting to see how he tests at the Combine.There are many videos about his performance on X and this quote was from Fan Nation.
They're both expensive and critical positions on an NFL roster. I think that a run on either shouldn't be a surprise.
Luckily in this draft, it's so deep that either way benefits us, and so does chalk. If I had my way, it would be a run on WR because we need tackles so badly. But we benefit regardless.
If out biggest need was at cornerback, for example, I'd be concerned about the runs. Not that we won't be drafting one (I hope that we do), but we're not as desperate there as the other roles.
If Fields to ATL is a fait accompli and Washington doesn't blow Chicago out of the water with an offer for Williams, then we really are down to Maye/Daniels or a trade back to go with quantity and future assets over the high QB pick. Probably how it always was, but things are starting to get a bit more clear.
I think Daniels is probably more in line with what Washington is looking for with Kliff as their new OC.