So I wanted to compare where the analytics say teams should be seeded based on the season they had vs where they actually were seeded. Anything within 1 seed is fine IMO, because the committee has to move teams around based on various reasons that have nothing to do with basketball resume. Using ESPN's BPI to determine how challenging it was for each team to accumulate the record they did..
ESPN 1 seeds (and actual seed):
Houston (1)
UConn (1)
Purdue (1)
Iowa State (2)
ESPN 2 seeds (and actual seed):
UNC (1)
Marquette (2)
Tennessee (2)
Illinois (3)
ESPN 3 seeds (and actual seed):
Baylor (3)
Auburn (4)
South Carolina (6)
Kansas (4)
Comment: South Carolina shows as underseeded here. I can see the argument, they have the same SEC record as Kentucky, a better overall record, and beat UK head-to-head, but UK got the 3 seed instead.
ESPN 4 seeds (and actual seed):
Arizona (2)
Creighton (3)
Alabama (4)
Duke (4)
Comment: Arizons shows as overseeded.
ESPN 5 seeds (and actual seed):
Texas Tech (6)
Florida (7)
Wisconsin (5)
Kentucky (3)
Comment: Florida underseeded, UK overseeded. Not sure why
ESPN 6 seeds (and actual seed):
BYU (6)
Gonzaga (5)
Utah State (8)
Nebraska (8)
Comment: Utah St and Nebraska overseeded
ESPN 7 seeds (and actual seed):
Dayton (7)
TCU (9)
Northwestern (9)
Oklahoma (OUT)
Comment: TCU and Northwestern underseeded. In general the metrics really like the Big-12. Thinks Oklahoma should have gotten in even with a losing conference record.
ESPN 8 seeds (and actual seed):
Virginia (10)
San Diego St (5)
Nevada (10)
Texas (7)
Comment: San Diego St. way overseeded, probably based on last year. Virginia and Nevada a little underseeded.
ESPN 9 seeds (and actual seed):
James Madison (12)
Washington St (7)
Clemson (6)
Colorado (10)
Comment: This grouping is a mess.
ESPN 10 seeds (and actual seed):
Seton Hall (OUT)
Mississippi St (8)
Indiana State (OUT)
Florida Atlantic (8)
Princeton (OUT)
Drake (10)
Comment: FAU, like SDSU, carries over some benefits from last year.
ESPN 11 seeds (and actual seed):
Oregon (11)
Saint Mary's (5)
Grand Canyon (12)
NC State (11)
Comment: Saint Mary's hilariously overseeded.
ESPN 12 seeds (and actual seed):
New Mexico (11)
McNeese (12)
Vermont (13)
Samford (13)
ESPN 13 seeds (and actual seed):
Duquesne (11)
Charleston (13)
Yale (13)
UAB (12)
ESPN 14 seeds (and actual seed):
Oakland (14)
Akron (14)
Morehead St (14)
Colgate (14)
ESPN 15 seeds (and actual seed):
Western Kentucky (15)
Stetson (16)
South Dakota St (15)
Long Beach St (15)
ESPN 16 seeds (and actual seed):
Longwood (16)
St Peters (15)
Grambling (16)
Howard (16)
Montana St (16)
Wagner (16)
SHOULD BE IN by metrics: Oklahoma, Seton Hall, Indiana St, Princeton
SHOULD BE OUT by metrics: CSU, Michigan St, Boise St, Texas A&M