So the Pats are 2-2, tied for second place in the AFC East with the surprising Jets, one game behind the also surprising Bills.
Parcells once famously said that you are what your record says you are. So at this point, the Patriots are a .500 team, an average team. Let's look at where they stand.
Offense
* Averaging 32.5 points per game, after having faced three very good defenses (KC, Hou, and Car). In their games against non-Pats opponents, the Chiefs have allowed 30 points (15.0/g), the Texans have allowed 52 points (17.3/g), and the Panthers have allowed 40 points (13.3/g). Even the Saints have allowed 63 in their non-Patriots games (21.0/g).
- KC: 15.0 vs non-Pats, gave up 27 vs NE. (NE +12.0)
- NO: 21.0 vs non-Pats, gave up 36 vs NE. (NE +15.0)
- Hou: 17.3 vs non-Pats, gave up 36 vs NE. (NE +18.7)
- Car: 13.3 vs non-Pats, gave up 30 vs NE. (NE +16.7)
That's pretty impressive right there from a scoring standpoint. They've put a beating on every team far beyond what they have given up to other teams.
* They are producing prodigious amounts of yards as well. 371, 555, 396, and 373, for an average of 424 per game. Stellar. Presently, they are #1 in the NFL in points per game and yards per game. Also #1 in first downs and they've only committed one turnover. Against 3 of the better defenses in the league.
* Brady has been otherworldly. So far, his stat line is: 103-155 (66.5%), 1,399 yds, 9.0 ypa, 10 td, 0 int, 116.6 rating. Best player in football so far this year, other than maybe Hunt from KC, who has been sick.
* The one downside to the passing game is that Brady has been hit a lot. Too much for a 40-year old guy, IMO.
* The running game, however, has been mediocre. Not terrible, but not great. 124, 119, 59, and 80 rushing yards. Against, again, three of the better defenses in the league. And much of it in shootouts trying to come back. As a team they're averaging just 3.6 yards per carry, which isn't good at all. And their short yardage running game has really struggled.
Defense
* Where to begin? Well, just as the Patriots really have decimated defenses so far when they've had the ball, other teams are doing the same to New England. Their opponents have scored 42, 20, 33, and 33 points. Here's what those opponents have done to non-Patriots opposition:
- KC: 25.5 vs non-Pats, scored 42 vs NE (+16.5)
- NO: 24.3 vs non-Pats, scored 20 vs NE (-4.3)
- Hou: 25.7 vs non-Pats, scored 33 vs NE (+7.3)
- Car: 15.0 vs non-Pats, scored 33 vs NE (+18.0)
* Now, a few comments. Kansas City has looked solid all season so far, but they were spectacular against the Patriots. New Orleans scored less against NE than they did against their other opponents. And Houston...well...that's a separate, special case. Prior to the Patriots game, they had Savage at QB, and Savage is awful. Their second game they played Watson, and that was his first game as a pro. Then with Watson having a tiny bit of NFL experience under his belt, they scored 33 against NE and then 57 against Jacksonville. That's 90 points in two games, or 45.0 per game. So maybe their offense is legitimately terrific with Watson at QB. The Carolina game was really the eye-opener for me. They came in being legitimately bad on offense, and they carved up the Patriots like a Christmas turkey. In Foxboro.
* They're ranked 31st in points allowed and 32nd in yards allowed. This massive negative transformation from a year ago, when they had the top scoring defense in the NFL, has been shocking. Most of the guys are the same: Flowers, Branch, Brown, Hightower, Van Noy, Rowe, M.Butler, McCourty, Chung, Harmon. The changes (out: Nink, Sheard, Long, Ryan; in: Guy, Butler, Wise, Gilmore, Patricia, Belichick) are not enough to turn the best defense into the worst overnight. Are they?????
* The run defense has been bad. They've allowed 531 yards (133 a game) at a rate of 5.1 yards per carry. That's just unacceptable. Running QBs have given them problems (Newton with 44 yards and 1 td on 8 carries (5.5 per), and Watson with 41 yards on 8 carries (5.1 per)), but RBs have had success against them as well. Missing Hightower for two games wasn't helpful, as he's a key member of the defense against the run.
* The real problem has been the pass defense. Opposing QBs - only one of which is a guy that teams really fear throwing the ball (Brees) - have lit up the Patriots. Here are the ghastly numbers:
- Smith: 28-35, 368 yds, 4 td, 0 int
- Brees: 27-45, 356 yds, 2 td, 0 int
- Watson: 22-33, 301 yds, 2 td, 2 int
- Newton: 22-29, 316 yds, 3 td, 1 int
- TOTAL: 99-142 (69.7%), 1,341 yds, 9.4 ypa, 11 td, 3 int, 116.5 rating
* That is just horrendous. They've gotten shredded by opposing QBs up and down the field. Ironically, their best day was probably against Brees, as a bunch of those yards were in garbage time.
* They are middle of the pack in takeaways (tied with several teams for 12th with 5 takeaways). Not great, but not bad either. Combined with their incredibly low giveaways, the Pats are tied for 4th in +/- with a +4 number. So turnovers aren't killing them. They're just allowing tons of yards and tons of points.
Special Teams
* Gostkowski has been terrific, outside of one clanked PAT. He's 8-8 on field goals and hit a great 58-yarder yesterday. And he's 13-14 on PATs. His kickoffs have been solid, and the kickoff coverage unit has been one of the best in the NFL, allowing just 19.3 per return (3rd best in the league).
* Allen has not been good at punting. His average net of 38.3 is 2nd worst in the NFL, and that's not just due to bad coverage (his kicking average is 42.2, third-worst in the NFL, and the Pats are middle of the pack in allowing 7.1 yards per punt return), nor is it due to too many short punts placed inside the 20 - the Pats are 20th in the NFL at that. Allen simply hasn't been very good this year. That doesn't necessarily translate into huge points, but consider it from an expected points standpoint. Every 5 yards of field position is equivalent to roughly 0.25 expected points. Allen has punted 18 times. Let's say Allen improved to middle-of-the-pack in net yards per punt. That would be an improvement of about 5 yards per punt, net. 18 punts over four games = 4.5 punts per game. That's a net of about 23 yards per game. At 0.25 expected points per 5 yards, he's costing them more than a point a game minimum. That 1.25 point per game, given that the Patriots have played two very close games recently, could be huge.
* The kickoff return game has been poor. The Pats have averaged just 18.7 per return, placing them 27th in the NFL. They've been equally poor at returning punts, averaging just 6.9 per return, placing them 25th in the NFL.
The problems with this team are fairly straightforward, at least from a numbers standpoint:
1. Pass defense in the secondary
2. Punting
3. Lack of a pass rush (which we knew would be there but we hoped that stellar secondary play would mask it somewhat; it hasn't)
On the bright side, the GOAT is playing his ass off. And the Patriots do tend to get better as the season goes on (unless injuries kill them). And unless some strange things have happened, the Patriots' coaching staff remains one of the, if not THE, very best in the NFL. And there is still a lot of talent there - remember, the vast majority of defensive players were there last year when they were the #1 scoring defense in the league, and it's not like they lost pro bowl players. So the problems SHOULD be fixable.
Also, we've seen other really good teams have bad losses: Atlanta at home to the Bills (no I don't believe in Buffalo), Dallas getting shredded in Denver and losing to the Rams, Pittsburgh getting beat by the Bears, Denver losing to the Bills (hmmmm...Buffalo has beaten Denver AND Atlanta...maybe I should pay attention to the Bills), Oakland has lost twice, GB barely beat Cincy and got killed by Atlanta, Seattle is just 2-2. It's not just New England that has struggled.
Parcells once famously said that you are what your record says you are. So at this point, the Patriots are a .500 team, an average team. Let's look at where they stand.
Offense
* Averaging 32.5 points per game, after having faced three very good defenses (KC, Hou, and Car). In their games against non-Pats opponents, the Chiefs have allowed 30 points (15.0/g), the Texans have allowed 52 points (17.3/g), and the Panthers have allowed 40 points (13.3/g). Even the Saints have allowed 63 in their non-Patriots games (21.0/g).
- KC: 15.0 vs non-Pats, gave up 27 vs NE. (NE +12.0)
- NO: 21.0 vs non-Pats, gave up 36 vs NE. (NE +15.0)
- Hou: 17.3 vs non-Pats, gave up 36 vs NE. (NE +18.7)
- Car: 13.3 vs non-Pats, gave up 30 vs NE. (NE +16.7)
That's pretty impressive right there from a scoring standpoint. They've put a beating on every team far beyond what they have given up to other teams.
* They are producing prodigious amounts of yards as well. 371, 555, 396, and 373, for an average of 424 per game. Stellar. Presently, they are #1 in the NFL in points per game and yards per game. Also #1 in first downs and they've only committed one turnover. Against 3 of the better defenses in the league.
* Brady has been otherworldly. So far, his stat line is: 103-155 (66.5%), 1,399 yds, 9.0 ypa, 10 td, 0 int, 116.6 rating. Best player in football so far this year, other than maybe Hunt from KC, who has been sick.
* The one downside to the passing game is that Brady has been hit a lot. Too much for a 40-year old guy, IMO.
* The running game, however, has been mediocre. Not terrible, but not great. 124, 119, 59, and 80 rushing yards. Against, again, three of the better defenses in the league. And much of it in shootouts trying to come back. As a team they're averaging just 3.6 yards per carry, which isn't good at all. And their short yardage running game has really struggled.
Defense
* Where to begin? Well, just as the Patriots really have decimated defenses so far when they've had the ball, other teams are doing the same to New England. Their opponents have scored 42, 20, 33, and 33 points. Here's what those opponents have done to non-Patriots opposition:
- KC: 25.5 vs non-Pats, scored 42 vs NE (+16.5)
- NO: 24.3 vs non-Pats, scored 20 vs NE (-4.3)
- Hou: 25.7 vs non-Pats, scored 33 vs NE (+7.3)
- Car: 15.0 vs non-Pats, scored 33 vs NE (+18.0)
* Now, a few comments. Kansas City has looked solid all season so far, but they were spectacular against the Patriots. New Orleans scored less against NE than they did against their other opponents. And Houston...well...that's a separate, special case. Prior to the Patriots game, they had Savage at QB, and Savage is awful. Their second game they played Watson, and that was his first game as a pro. Then with Watson having a tiny bit of NFL experience under his belt, they scored 33 against NE and then 57 against Jacksonville. That's 90 points in two games, or 45.0 per game. So maybe their offense is legitimately terrific with Watson at QB. The Carolina game was really the eye-opener for me. They came in being legitimately bad on offense, and they carved up the Patriots like a Christmas turkey. In Foxboro.
* They're ranked 31st in points allowed and 32nd in yards allowed. This massive negative transformation from a year ago, when they had the top scoring defense in the NFL, has been shocking. Most of the guys are the same: Flowers, Branch, Brown, Hightower, Van Noy, Rowe, M.Butler, McCourty, Chung, Harmon. The changes (out: Nink, Sheard, Long, Ryan; in: Guy, Butler, Wise, Gilmore, Patricia, Belichick) are not enough to turn the best defense into the worst overnight. Are they?????
* The run defense has been bad. They've allowed 531 yards (133 a game) at a rate of 5.1 yards per carry. That's just unacceptable. Running QBs have given them problems (Newton with 44 yards and 1 td on 8 carries (5.5 per), and Watson with 41 yards on 8 carries (5.1 per)), but RBs have had success against them as well. Missing Hightower for two games wasn't helpful, as he's a key member of the defense against the run.
* The real problem has been the pass defense. Opposing QBs - only one of which is a guy that teams really fear throwing the ball (Brees) - have lit up the Patriots. Here are the ghastly numbers:
- Smith: 28-35, 368 yds, 4 td, 0 int
- Brees: 27-45, 356 yds, 2 td, 0 int
- Watson: 22-33, 301 yds, 2 td, 2 int
- Newton: 22-29, 316 yds, 3 td, 1 int
- TOTAL: 99-142 (69.7%), 1,341 yds, 9.4 ypa, 11 td, 3 int, 116.5 rating
* That is just horrendous. They've gotten shredded by opposing QBs up and down the field. Ironically, their best day was probably against Brees, as a bunch of those yards were in garbage time.
* They are middle of the pack in takeaways (tied with several teams for 12th with 5 takeaways). Not great, but not bad either. Combined with their incredibly low giveaways, the Pats are tied for 4th in +/- with a +4 number. So turnovers aren't killing them. They're just allowing tons of yards and tons of points.
Special Teams
* Gostkowski has been terrific, outside of one clanked PAT. He's 8-8 on field goals and hit a great 58-yarder yesterday. And he's 13-14 on PATs. His kickoffs have been solid, and the kickoff coverage unit has been one of the best in the NFL, allowing just 19.3 per return (3rd best in the league).
* Allen has not been good at punting. His average net of 38.3 is 2nd worst in the NFL, and that's not just due to bad coverage (his kicking average is 42.2, third-worst in the NFL, and the Pats are middle of the pack in allowing 7.1 yards per punt return), nor is it due to too many short punts placed inside the 20 - the Pats are 20th in the NFL at that. Allen simply hasn't been very good this year. That doesn't necessarily translate into huge points, but consider it from an expected points standpoint. Every 5 yards of field position is equivalent to roughly 0.25 expected points. Allen has punted 18 times. Let's say Allen improved to middle-of-the-pack in net yards per punt. That would be an improvement of about 5 yards per punt, net. 18 punts over four games = 4.5 punts per game. That's a net of about 23 yards per game. At 0.25 expected points per 5 yards, he's costing them more than a point a game minimum. That 1.25 point per game, given that the Patriots have played two very close games recently, could be huge.
* The kickoff return game has been poor. The Pats have averaged just 18.7 per return, placing them 27th in the NFL. They've been equally poor at returning punts, averaging just 6.9 per return, placing them 25th in the NFL.
The problems with this team are fairly straightforward, at least from a numbers standpoint:
1. Pass defense in the secondary
2. Punting
3. Lack of a pass rush (which we knew would be there but we hoped that stellar secondary play would mask it somewhat; it hasn't)
On the bright side, the GOAT is playing his ass off. And the Patriots do tend to get better as the season goes on (unless injuries kill them). And unless some strange things have happened, the Patriots' coaching staff remains one of the, if not THE, very best in the NFL. And there is still a lot of talent there - remember, the vast majority of defensive players were there last year when they were the #1 scoring defense in the league, and it's not like they lost pro bowl players. So the problems SHOULD be fixable.
Also, we've seen other really good teams have bad losses: Atlanta at home to the Bills (no I don't believe in Buffalo), Dallas getting shredded in Denver and losing to the Rams, Pittsburgh getting beat by the Bears, Denver losing to the Bills (hmmmm...Buffalo has beaten Denver AND Atlanta...maybe I should pay attention to the Bills), Oakland has lost twice, GB barely beat Cincy and got killed by Atlanta, Seattle is just 2-2. It's not just New England that has struggled.
