All of this and more.
I have to say, even when we were flying high, I never for a second believed we were better than the Rays, whose opening day roster was so obviously a work in progress with all the impact talent they had in Durham. My preseason expectations were 88-ish wins and an outside — say 30% — chance at a wildcard spot, and Fangraphs has us projected at 91-71 and 72% to get a wildcard spot. So I'm pretty much delighted with where we stand in terms our performance this season, even as I get how the narrative of how it's played out (hot start followed by drop off) is more frustrating than if they had just held a steady 91-win pace.
That said, this COVID situation is going to make it very hard to maintain even an approximation of that pace. We always knew that was a risk, and as the Yankees showed us earlier in the season, it was a risk even for teams who met the vaccination threshold, which Boston — to their shame — did not.
If we do indeed land in a WC slot, we should be a pretty dangerous team if we can line up our pitching. Of course, you could say the same about the Yankees or the A's, who are also very good.
But I think the bigger picture is worth keeping in mind here. On one of the WEEI spring training broadcasts, I heard Chaim Bloom say that his goal for the season was to clarify the future core of this team, and I think that is indeed the right goal for where we are in the success cycle. The Red Sox window is opening, not closing. Contention this season was always ahead of schedule. We're building depth in the organization and trying to figure out what the 2023-5 teams will look like.
So where do we stand on that project? It's a mixed bag, but more positive than negative IMO. To be clear, for these purposes I am much more interested in the performance of players under the age of 27 or so, with a few exceptions.
- Pros
- Whitlock emerged as a potential SP or high-end relief weapon.
- Houck emerged as a potential SP or high-end relief weapon.
- Pivetta looks like a real major league SP, but not an especially great one.
- Devers needs an extension.
- We gave Dalbec a couple hundred PA, and he has a 99 OPS+ to show for it. Not great for a 1B. But! That masks the fact that he's been much better in August (25% K rate, 11% walk rate, 12 XBH) as the team has faltered. If he manages an .800+ OPS in September, I think I want him as our starting 1B until Casas is ready.
- Arroyo looks like a long term infield piece, probably in a utility-type role.
- Verdugo is on pace for a 2-3 WAR season, depending on whose numbers you look at. Pretty good.
- Kyle Schwarber, huh?
- Cons
- Franchy didn't exactly light the world on fire, but did well enough in AAA that I'm interested to see more from him.
- Vazquez had a rough year. I expect we'll pick up his option, but we likely need to make some investments into our catching depth.
- We extended Barnes, who then immediately scuffled. I'm not worried about him long term — I think he's been ridden pretty hard, given the innings jump from last year — but... yeah. It's been ugly for a few weeks.
- Duran came up and has not been good. But he's been bad in a normal sort of rookie way, and only in 100 PA or so. He seems to be getting the strikeouts under control in the last week or two, but the samples remain tiny. I would very much like to see him get a lot of PA in September if it can be done.
Big question marks outstanding:
- The future of Xander Bogaerts is a huge question. His defense has been a huge issue, his bat has remained excellent, and he has an opt out after next season. I suspect he's a future corner outfielder, but I don't know how he feels about that prospect. I don't envy Bloom trying to navigate this one.
- The future of Eduardo Rodriguez is likewise a huge question, for reasons we've been over (the peripherals of a good number 2 pitcher, the results of a so-so number 5). I similarly don't envy Bloom trying to navigate this one. If we can extend him inexpensively for a few seasons, that could be a real coup, but I'd be pretty scared to give him a big deal.
On the farm:
- Jeter Downs had a weird season. He was mostly really bad with the bat, although in a way that included 11 HR in 300ish PA. But he was reportedly pretty good at shortstop, which is good to see. I still see him as a legitimate prospect — he basically skipped AA, and at 22 is very young for AAA — but his floor isn't high enough that we're pencilling him into any future Boston rosters at this point.
- Young position players Marcelo Mayer, Nick Yorke, and Blaze Jordan are off to great starts to their pro careers and look like future middle of the order bats. Caribbean teenagers Miguel Bleis and Eddinson Paulino also emerged as standouts.
- Ryan Fitzgerald is an old dude who spent time in Indy ball, retooled his swing, and has been quietly amazing on both sides of the ball for Portland and Worcester. I wouldn't be surprised if he's up in September with all of the roster chaos.
- Young pitchers Brayan Bello, Josh Winckowski and Wilkelman Gonzalez emerged as potential starters. Seabold looks like he could be a respectable 4/5 starter for Boston right now. Groome is alive and pitching, perhaps well enough to resume his prospect status. On the down side, Bryan Mata and Thaddeus Ward had surgery.
- Overall, the farm has been much improved, as the 2020 and 2021 drafts look to have been impactful and we've had more breakouts than breakdowns.