The GOAT, two other sure HoF'ers, and the MVP.
Has there ever been a better final four for QBs? Anything close?
Has there ever been a better final four for QBs? Anything close?
Best final four QBs ever?
- Thread starter tims4wins
- Start date
93 Montana was past prime. Still very good but not prime
I think Aikman was a bit overrated historically - great player but his OL and skill talent was insane.
But those are excellent comps since all those guys are in the HoF
I think Aikman was a bit overrated historically - great player but his OL and skill talent was insane.
But those are excellent comps since all those guys are in the HoF
I was going to post this same basic idea this morning, but you beat me to it.
And then this reply was worthy:
That's four hall of famers, and one of them is in the top 2 QB of all time conversation (Montana, obviously). But this group this weekend....well...there are three sure-fire hall of famers (Brady, Ben, Rodgers), and Ryan could easily be an MVP this year and if he keeps it up, could possibly be a HOFer.
Let's look at their respective resumés, with the understanding that the current group's respective careers aren't over yet.
1993 Group
Montana: 4 SB titles, 4 Conf. Championships, 2 MVPs, 3 all-pro, 8 pro bowl, HOF
Aikman: 3 SB titles, 3 Conf. Championships, 6 pro bowl, HOF
Young: 1 SB title, 1 Conf. Championship, 2 MVPs, 3 all-pro, 7 pro bowl, HOF
Kelly: 0 SB titles, 4 Conf. Championships, 1 all-pro, 5 pro bowl, HOF
2016 Group (well, 2017 I guess)
Brady: 4 SB titles, 6 Conf. Championships, 2 MVPs, 2 all-pro, 12 pro bowl
Roethlisberger: 2 SB titles, 3 Conf. Championships, 5 pro bowl
Rodgers: 1 SB title, 1 Conf. Championship, 2 MVPs, 2 all-pro, 6 pro bowl
Ryan: 1 all-pro, 4 pro bowl
Tallying them all up:
- SB titles: 1993 (8); 2016 (7)
- Conf. Championships: 1993 (12); 2016 (10)
- MVPs: 1993 (4); 2016 (4) - with a 5th one almost certain this year
- All-pro: 1993 (7); 2016 (5)
- Pro bowl: 1993 (26); 2016 (27)
Given that there are still a lot more years left for the 2016 crew, in which there will be many more pro bowls, all-pro awards, MVPs, and team accolades, and there's a real chance that the 2016 group will end up with better careers than the 1993 group. Especially if Ryan gets to the HOF - then you'll have four HOFers in each group.
Just incredible.
What's interesting is that I believe these four quarterbacks were the four best quarterbacks heading into this year's NFL playoffs. I'd include Russell Wilson as a 5th guy in that group, but these four are the best. And here we are, with these four as the only four left standing.
You need to add 2 conf championships and one SB title to the current group just to account for what'll happen the next three weeks.
Why is Ben a sure-fire hall of famer? Because of his 2 Super Bowls?
He's never been MVP (I can't even find if he's received a vote, but admittedly couldn't find a good source on this). He's never been Offensive Player of the year. He's never been First Team All Pro. Only once has he even been second team.
I thought maybe there would be a contender among the four times Brady and Manning met in the AFCCG, but the NFC had trouble holding up their end of the deal:
2003: Brady, Manning, McNabb, Delhomme (nope)
2006: Brady, Manning, Brees, Grossman (so close!)
2013: Brady, Manning, Wilson, Kaepernick (nope)
2015: Brady, Manning, Newton, Palmer (nope)
2003: Brady, Manning, McNabb, Delhomme (nope)
2006: Brady, Manning, Brees, Grossman (so close!)
2013: Brady, Manning, Wilson, Kaepernick (nope)
2015: Brady, Manning, Newton, Palmer (nope)
He's going to end up with huge career numbers, is widely regarded as being one of the best QBs in football (and has been basically his whole career), and has two (maybe will have more) Super Bowl championships.
That's a helluva resumé.
Jim Kelly is in the HOF with far less.
He's been better than I tend to remember. His 13 years with PIT are actually strangely similar to Manning's 13 years with IND, esp w/r/t rate stats— similar passer rating, TD%, INT%, comp %, etc. Manning racked up yardage at a higher volume, but Ben has the two titles. As for First Team All Pro votes and such: he's pretty clearly the third-best player of his generation at his position (depending, I suppose, on how you define 'generation*')— there's room for that in the HOF, esp. when the career will span 15 or so seasons.
*Edit: If you define 'generation' semi-arbitrarily as 'QB's born in the 1970s', then you have Brady, Manning, Roethlisberger, and Brees as the top 4. So, I guess third- or fourth-best, depending on how you feel about Brees.
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1972: Griese, Bradshaw, Staubach, and Kilmer, who was a two-time All-Pro is arguable.
Note that since 2001, only 2 QBs not named Roethlisberger, Brady, or Manning have represented the AFC in the SB. That's insane.
Note that since 2001, only 2 QBs not named Roethlisberger, Brady, or Manning have represented the AFC in the SB. That's insane.
1973 was another year with four HoF QBs in the final four: Griese, Stabler, Tarkenton, and Staubach.
But it is hard to match the guys from that era with the current guys. Here's Griese's lines from his playoff games that year:
First round 34-16 win over the Bengals: 11-18, 159 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
AFC Championship 27-10 win over the Raiders: 3-6, 34 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT
Super Bowl VIII 24-7 win over the Vikings: 6-7, 73 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs.
But it is hard to match the guys from that era with the current guys. Here's Griese's lines from his playoff games that year:
First round 34-16 win over the Bengals: 11-18, 159 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
AFC Championship 27-10 win over the Raiders: 3-6, 34 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT
Super Bowl VIII 24-7 win over the Vikings: 6-7, 73 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs.
This one is mostly on spec when it comes to HoF credentials for some, but if you're talking about guys in their primes:
2014: Brady, Luck, Wilson, Rodgers. (I think all four will make the HoF, and probably three would go right now if they were to hang it up now.)
2014: Brady, Luck, Wilson, Rodgers. (I think all four will make the HoF, and probably three would go right now if they were to hang it up now.)
You think Wilson is a hall of famer, right NOW? That is a ballsy statement, one that I just can't believe can be backed up.
Those were the days when a little different philosophy was at work. Back then, there was the view that when you pass, three things can happen and two of them are bad (incomplete or interception). Clearly that wasn't really true, but that's how people thought about the game.
If he got the Gale Sayers treatment, definitely. If he got the Terrell Davis treatment, definitely not.
But I think he goes in on his current pace--and I think Terrell should be a HoF as well.
Well, saying that he is on pace is a hell of difference from saying he goes in if he retires tomorrow.
I think Wilson's peak will carry him even if he never makes another SB.
Look, if I really wanted to rile people up:
2007-Brady, Rivers, ELI MANNING, Favre.
The only question mark there may be Rivers, because Eli is going to be a Hall of Famer. Two SB wins, one historic, two SB MVPs, and as high as he will be on the passing leader boards as he will be by the time he's done, he's a lock.
(And Rivers may be too if you look at his career stats.)
Look, if I really wanted to rile people up:
2007-Brady, Rivers, ELI MANNING, Favre.
The only question mark there may be Rivers, because Eli is going to be a Hall of Famer. Two SB wins, one historic, two SB MVPs, and as high as he will be on the passing leader boards as he will be by the time he's done, he's a lock.
(And Rivers may be too if you look at his career stats.)
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For some meat on those bones.....
Miami passed 256 times in 14 games in 1973. They ran 507 times (for a 5.0 ypc). Their opponents passed a few more times per game (322/511), but only ran for 3.9 ypc. Griese had a 84.3 QBR (Morrall was dismal 27.5 in 38 passes); Dolphins opponents had a 39.9(!!!!) QBR.
Those Dolphins played some serious defense. 15 TDs in 14 games.
2 shutouts, 7 games in single digits. In the year OJ ran for 2003 yards, he was held to 14/55 in one of their games. In the other, OJ ran for 120 (& Jim Braxton for 119) but QB Ferguson went 6-19-68 and Bills got shut out.
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I think there's a very large gap between Brady, Manning, Brees and Roethlisberger. If we're talking about Roethlisberger as a Sure Fire, then we're saying that Eli and Phillip Rivers are also already on the border. Eli has similar Yardage and TDs with slightly worse completion % and Interception rate, but has the 2 rings as well. Rivers is slightly better in all of the rate stats, but obviously lacks the postseason results.
So now we're talking about 6 QBs from this generation being Hall of Famers?
Yeah, that overrated asshole Brees* really mucks that up.
*Because some foolish opinions of others must be repeated
Definitely. Barring injury, Eli (48,214), who is currently eighth, is passing Elway (51,475) and Moon (49,325) to go to sixth on the all-time career passing leader board behind Peyton, Favre, Brees, Brady, and Marino.
That and two rings and two SB MVPs, he is already a lock.
Rivers is currently 12th, but should go into the top ten at ninth assuming a routine season next year behind the Rapist, who is currently tenth but should pass Moon for the eighth spot if he stays healthy for at least 75% of the Steelers games next season. Moon is in the Hall and he has a similar lack of playoff credentials as Rivers.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_yds_career.htm
Should Big Ben get dinged for one of his rings since he posted a QB rating less than half of what Peyton put up last year in the SB? 9/23 with 2 INTs and no TDs vs SEA in 2005 SB is one of, if not the all time worst stat line for a winning QB.
Eric Gagne probably deserves more credit for his 2007 WS ring than Ben does for 2005 since Gagne did far less to hurt his team.
Eric Gagne probably deserves more credit for his 2007 WS ring than Ben does for 2005 since Gagne did far less to hurt his team.
I'd still say this year may better a better 4 though. In 1992 none of those 4 outside of Young as Montana's backup had even won a Super Bowl yet. And we know Kelly and Marino never won one.
I hate The Rapist for many reasons, among them claiming that the Pats should forfeit their 2004 rings to the Steelers because of all the Spygate crap when his 2005 ring is tainted by the fact that the Steelers were awarded a TD on a play in which HE NEVER CROSSED THE GOAL LINE.
But for better or worse, unless the NFL adopts a morals clause like MLB, the Rapist is going to be a Hall of Famer.
For the sake of your blood pressure, don't read the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette today. Pats won two AFCCGs in Pittsburgh because they cheated.
Edit: regarding the QBs, there were six who stood above the crowd this year. These four, Prescott and Carr. And I pretty much believe that as impressive a rookie season as that was, Prescott was a pretty clear sixth, and of course Carr was unfortunately hurt.
So we are left with the final and best possible four. And we saw some other guys (Eli, Rivers, Flacco, Luck, Newton, Brees) fall back to the pack a bit this year, so the gap is pretty pronounced. Edit2: I think you can add Wilson to the fall back towards the pack group; those seven QBs all took a step back this year for one reason or another.
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That's reaaally arbitrary. But anyway, Roethlisberger was born in 1982. Rodgers entered the league in 2005, one year after Roethlisberger, and was born in 1983. I don't see any basis to conclude that they're from different generations.
Roethlisberger is a borderline HOFer, a very good player who has benefitted immensely from playing with strong defenses and a solid organization. He's much better than Eli (who shouldn't sniff the HoF, but that's another story), but he's not really any better than Rivers or Romo, who probably won't come close to getting in. He's never been a top-4 QB in the league (Brady, Manning, Brees, and Rodgers have always been better). So is being consistently in the 5-10 range of QBs for a decade+ good enough for the HOF? Depends on your POV. Personally, given the restricted ballot, I'd rather put in a dominant offensive lineman or defensive player than a guy who was rarely even top-5 at his position.
A question is whether the benchmark for passing yards (and/or TDs?) will go up with voters in the future since this is such a passer-heavy era, similar to HR in baseball during the steroid era.
Eli, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Palmer, Ryan, Rodgers are all likely to be in top 10 in passing yards if not there already (Eli and Ben), with top-10 being comfortably above 50K+ yards. And that's not including QBs who have played fewer years but might also get there: Newton, Luck, Wilson, Stafford (?), Flacco (??).
Taking the last ten years as an arbitrary benchmark, prior to 2006 the threshold for top 10 was around 40K+ yards (Montana/Unitas).
To compare volume with value/rate stats (and please, I know nothing about whether these stats are total crap—I'm using them because they're standard ones Football-Reference gives):
—Brady, Brees, Rivers, Roethlisberger are also top 10 in passer rating (Rodgers, Wilson, Romo, also there, Ryan close). Eli is
40th.
—Brady, Brees are in top 10 in AV (weighted). Rivers, Rodgers are 22-25th; Roethlisberger, Ryan, Manning are 55-67th.
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I disagree, this is not analogous to the steroid era in baseball. The passing rules started to be relaxed in the late 70's. It's part of the season why the Steelers won SB XIII and XIV on Bradshaw's arm more than Franco's legs. (Bradshaw also had a big hand in winning X, but the MVP went to Swann, and it is hard to argue that if you saw his four catches in the game.)
But passing really took off in the late 80's/early 90's with the advent of the run and shoot (red gun, K gun, sliver stretch) offenses. Moon and Elway were part of that era, so passing their career yardage totals is a lot different than passing guys like Tarkenton or Staubach, or even Fouts, who played only a part of his career after the defensive rules were relaxed.
Eli is going into the Hall of Fame. Accept it, because it is a stone cold fact. That he's been a good citizen of the league, comes from a well-regarded family, and played for one of the most-respected franchises all will play a part in his eventual election, but so will his accomplishments on the field.
Thanks for this context. My question was really that, a question, and this is helpful.
I went back and looked at when QBs entered the top 10 in passing yards, for frequency and how much the threshold for top-10 status went up by year. If we conservatively project 4000+ yards/year* for those who are close, here are dates for entering the top 10 and the 10th-highest total yards as of that year: (projections in italics)
2022 Stafford 54,303
2020 Rodgers [Elway 51,475]
2019 Ryan 49,701
2017 Rivers, Palmer [Moon 49,325]
2016 E Manning, Roethlisberger 46,814
2012 Brees, Brady [10th Bledsoe 44,611]
2007 P Manning [10th Montana 40,551]
2004 Bledsoe 39, 808
2001 Favre [10th Krieg 38,147]
1999 Testaverde [10th Kelly 35,467]
1996 Kelly 35,467
1995 Esiason 34,149
1993 Moon, Elway [10th Hadl 33,503]
1991 Marino [10th Jurgensen 32,224]
1989 Montana 31,054
1983 Anderson, Fouts 30,114
1979 Hart [10th Dawson 28,711]
1976 Namath 27,057
In 28 years from 1983 to 2011, 12 players entered the top 10, with the lowest total going up by 10,000 yards.
In 10 years from 2012 to 2022, 9 players will likely enter the top 10, with the lowest total going up by 14,000 yards.
So it does seem like the pace has accelerated for career yardage milestones in this decade.
*none of these QBs have had non-injury seasons with fewer than 4K yards since 2011 except Rodgers [3821 yds in 2015], and all are usually well over that.
Edit: Of course, the other way to look at this is by season: 19 of the top 25 passing seasons have taken place in the last 5 years; 23 of 25 in the last 9 years (the others: Dan Marino 1984, Kurt Warner 2001).
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Historically, and with the benefit of hindsight, this discussion may turn on where Ryan goes from here. If he winds up in Canton, it may be said someday that to date no other year featured 4 HOF QBs playing pretty much at the top of their games.
True, although the same could be said of 2014 (Brady, Luck, Wilson, Rodgers) if Wilson and Luck have the careers expected of them.
To Moog's point, the other change that's impacting QB's career totals is how QBs are protected now. I watch a number of old games on YouTube, and while players were not as big or fast as they are now, defenders got away with a lot of things that would be flagged today.
Larry Cole was not flagged for this savage hit on Bradshaw in Super Bowl X (starts at 16:48):
To Moog's point, the other change that's impacting QB's career totals is how QBs are protected now. I watch a number of old games on YouTube, and while players were not as big or fast as they are now, defenders got away with a lot of things that would be flagged today.
Larry Cole was not flagged for this savage hit on Bradshaw in Super Bowl X (starts at 16:48):
I'm not sure I still expect the career from Luck that I did even a couple years ago. That very well may end being by no fault of his own, but he's not trending up, so to speak.
This is true, but the Polian rule change and the shift in coaching strategy has had a huge effect on passing.
Here are passing yards/team by year since 1990:
Still, the point of all this is the question of Eli Manning's Hall of Fame credentials, which I believe has been settled--he's getting in.
By the time he's eligible, he'll likely only be behind only Peyton, Favre, Brees, Brady, and Marino in career passing yards. (As stated before, he's currently eighth and will pass Elway and Moon for the sixth spot with an average year next season.)
He'll likely only be behind only Peyton, Favre, Brees, Brady, and Marino in career passing TDs. (He's currently seventh (320) and will pass Tarkenton (342) for the sixth spot next season.)
He's tied for seventh with The Rapist (both have 39) in game winning drives, behind Brees (42), Favre (45), Elway (46), Brady (49), Marino (51), and Peyton (56). He'll wind up sixth or seventh by the time he's done.
He tied for sixth in career fourth quarter comebacks with Tarkenton and Favre (30), behind Peyton (45), Brady (38), Marino (36), Elway (35), and Montana (31). Given how tightly the Giants play games, it's possible he'll be third in this category by the time he's done. (He had 3 in 2016; Stafford led the league with 8 this season.)
All that and two SB rings, two SB MVPs, one historic upset, his family ties, and the team he plays for will ensure he gets in.
It's possible he'll be surpassed in some of these categories by some of his contemporaries given all that has been posted here about how passing rates continue to rise, but for that to happen, those QBs will have to match Eli in this attribute--the ability to stay on the field. Here's how many starts he's missed since he assumed the starting role for the Giants in 2004: 0.
You can mock him as goofy, and say he's no Brady or his brother Peyton, but when you look at someone's career stats on a leader table and the only people around him who are not in the Hall of Fame are those who are not yet eligible, the guy's going into the Hall of Fame.
By the time he's eligible, he'll likely only be behind only Peyton, Favre, Brees, Brady, and Marino in career passing yards. (As stated before, he's currently eighth and will pass Elway and Moon for the sixth spot with an average year next season.)
He'll likely only be behind only Peyton, Favre, Brees, Brady, and Marino in career passing TDs. (He's currently seventh (320) and will pass Tarkenton (342) for the sixth spot next season.)
He's tied for seventh with The Rapist (both have 39) in game winning drives, behind Brees (42), Favre (45), Elway (46), Brady (49), Marino (51), and Peyton (56). He'll wind up sixth or seventh by the time he's done.
He tied for sixth in career fourth quarter comebacks with Tarkenton and Favre (30), behind Peyton (45), Brady (38), Marino (36), Elway (35), and Montana (31). Given how tightly the Giants play games, it's possible he'll be third in this category by the time he's done. (He had 3 in 2016; Stafford led the league with 8 this season.)
All that and two SB rings, two SB MVPs, one historic upset, his family ties, and the team he plays for will ensure he gets in.
It's possible he'll be surpassed in some of these categories by some of his contemporaries given all that has been posted here about how passing rates continue to rise, but for that to happen, those QBs will have to match Eli in this attribute--the ability to stay on the field. Here's how many starts he's missed since he assumed the starting role for the Giants in 2004: 0.
You can mock him as goofy, and say he's no Brady or his brother Peyton, but when you look at someone's career stats on a leader table and the only people around him who are not in the Hall of Fame are those who are not yet eligible, the guy's going into the Hall of Fame.
Sadly, I agree. (I hate the Colts, but I really like Luck.)
Saw a tweet from Schefter that the 7 SB titles among the 4 QBs playing this weekend is the most ever for a championship weekend since the merger.
Agree Eli is in, but this class has it all over 2007.
Brady is Brady; Rodgers beats Favre, easily by the time Rodgers is done; Ben over Eli; and Ryan perhaps over Rivers by the time both are done, or at least a wash.
(And Ben IS in -- the rings work for them both, and Steeler bloodlines are just as good as Giant ones for Canton).
Brady is Brady; Rodgers beats Favre, easily by the time Rodgers is done; Ben over Eli; and Ryan perhaps over Rivers by the time both are done, or at least a wash.
(And Ben IS in -- the rings work for them both, and Steeler bloodlines are just as good as Giant ones for Canton).
Eli will get in because of the two rings and the name and the Mannings' media connections, but it will be incredibly dumb when it happens.
He'll end up with great counting stats because a) era, and b) his best quality is durability -- he hasn't missed a start since his rookie season, which has given him lots of opportunities to rack up the counting stats. But he's never been close to being the best QB in the league, has had exactly one season where he was even a Top-5 QB (2011, when he was probably 4th best), and only 2-3 more where he was maybe a Top-10 QB. And he's had a few years that were real stinkers (he's led the league in INTs three times). For most of his career, he's been about average (as evidenced by his career ANY/A+ of 102). The only time he should sniff the HoF is when he visits for his brother's induction.
Hmm, smells like wholesale "borrowing"
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/18496185/is-best-qb-final-four-nfl-history-2016-nfl-playoffs-conference-championships
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/18496185/is-best-qb-final-four-nfl-history-2016-nfl-playoffs-conference-championships
You realize that these stats don't help his case unless you think that like 20% of QBs should be in the HOF. This is saying "He'll be at best 5th among his contemporaries among those who had extended careers, and maybe further back when you account for people with shortened careers due to injury or whatever."
If he gets in, it'll be on the strength of the name and the 2 Super Bowls for NYC.
This was effectively my point with all the long-winded numbers above. When he's certain to be behind 3 of his contemporaries (Peyton, Brees, Brady, not counting Favre as a contemporary exactly) and likely in the mix with up to 5 other contemporaries who have played fewer seasons and/or are younger than him (Roethlisberger + Rivers who are within 2-3K yards and 1-2 years younger, Ryan/Rodgers/Stafford who are 3-8 years younger), it's unclear what top-10 status will really mean for his (or other) candidacies going forward.
This isn't a refusal to accept that he'll get in to the HOF—I agree he probably will for the rings, the family, and the city he played in—it's a legitimate question about how to judge passing and TD stats when the top 10 will effectively be reset by this generation of QBs.
On what basis are you saying he was a Top 5 QB in 2011? He was 7th in passer rating, 9th in DVR, 16th in QBR, outside the top 10 in completion percentage, INT percentage, and approximate value, 6th in TD, had only a 29:16 TD:INT ratio...
He was 4h in ANY/A among starters who played the whole season. QB rating underrates Eli that year because Eli was a low %/high YPC guy and QB rating overweights completion %. Eli also was good at avoiding sacks that year, esp. since he was throwing deep a lot. There was a clear big 3 that year (Rodgers/Brady/Brees), and then there were 4-5 guys who were bunched up -- Eli, Romo, Ryan, Stafford, Rivers. Eli had as good a claim as any of them to be the best of that bunch.
