This makes sense and I'm not disappointed in the least. We can get 80% of the production for 50% of the cost in the next wave.
Calvin Ridley, you in?
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How much better does 80% of Ridley really make the Pats? That’s not a huge upgrade over what they have already (Bourne, Douglas, JJSS)
At that point, they’re probably better off throwing money at tackle and just drafting receivers
Spending another 8M-10M on another #2 or high end #3 receiver seems like a waste
What this team needs is an impact WR and 80% of a low end #1 doesn’t seem to fit that bill.
Mike Williams is being released by the Chargers. I would be fine with copy pasting that Ridley offer and sending it over to Williams' agent.
I don't know—a guy like Jakobi Meyers is roughly 80% of Ridley (different role, but production-wise) and he seems like he'd be a pretty huge upgrade. Bourne is coming off surgery, Douglas is a little guy, JuJu and Thornton are just out there getting their cardio in before the next injury. If we enter the season with a group of Douglas/Bourne/Thornton/JuJu/Raegor/Draft pick/Draft pick while there is cap space to burn, we would be doing a huge disservice to the rookie QB that we expect to carry us forward. Unless they absolutely NAIL the draft picks but hard to bank on that.
Even if we don't get a game breaker it is worth upgrading the position group from "a couple nice flowers in a heaping pile of garbage." If you want to run 3 receiver sets you need to have 3 guys you'd actually want on the field trying to catch passes.
I mean, I think the 80% was referring to Marquise Brown, he's certainly an impact player, arguably more of an explosive threat than Ridley, just less well rounded.
The thing about guys like Ridley is.... they aren't really good enough to just line up and beat #1 CBs (and he's declined a lot in beating press man), so you still need to scheme them up. If Ridley were... Tee Higgins? Different story, but for WRs if they aren't "can win consistently against the other team's #1 CB without schemed help" then it's really about what skillset you need. Ridley is nice because he can do a lot of things, but at a certain price the versatility is less valuable than just getting a combination of skills elsewhere.
I think Hollywood Brown is an upgrade over those guys, for instance, and he's likely to be significantly less expensive than Ridley. (Probably not 50% less, but still less.) The reason I would advocate for a vet wideout is that it will help a rookie QB to know his guys will be in the right places, understand coverage, etc. If he's out there throwing to multiple rookies trying to figure things out as well, that's probably dysfunctional. And I think they can address both WR and OT with their remaining cap.
I wouldn't. I'd give Mike Williams an incentive-laden deal b/c he's coming back from an ACL. But I'd def explore bringing him in.
I still have no idea why people think Jonah Williams should be getting "big money".
big is relative, he's a 26 year old tackle who can start at a solid average to above average level on both sides in the NFL and has no recent injury history... that's really quite valuable.
Mike Williams literally can not stay healthy the last few years and is now 30. I'd pass.
PFF estimates 4/64 with 40 guaranteed for Williams? That seems low in this market. He apparently wants to play LT but as you say can play both sides. If it's for that money or close, I would do it. Lock one of the OT spots down. You could even roll with Williams, Owenu and Orakefor and not look completely ridiculous if the draft didn't break your way in R2/R3 for an OT.
Durable, young, fairly high floor, premium position of extreme scarcity league wide
He’s gonna get paid good money by someone. He’s not great but even serviceable guys who are 26 and reliable get big bucks these days
PFF has struggled with projections this year, might have done them before the cap jump they had Onwenu at 14.5M per for example, missed by about 3M a year (and a year) on Hunt. SO I'd guess you're looking more at 18-20 AAV.
He's 26 and has no recent injuries. I'm not convinced on the rest.
He lead the league in sacks last year and had the 6th most this year. I can't find a single metric that says he's even an average run blocker, let alone "above average". He lost his job at LT and forced the Bengals to splurge on Orland Brown Jr because he had such a terrible season. Most Cinci fan/reddit boards I read were clamoring for an upgrade over Williams and aren't all that disappointed he's leaving.
Feels like throwing money away if you're signing him to be your RT...and quite the risk to consider letting him protect your rookie QBs blindside.
Brown wouldn't be coming in here to upgrade over Bourne/Douglas/JJSS (although he would most certainly be an upgrade over each of them, IMO), he'd be here to play with them. The signing of Brown wouldn't result in the benching of Bourne.
That said, I wouldn't pay Brown 3/4ths of what Darnell Mooney just signed for, and I think he's going to get at least that.
Sacks are not a OL stat would be my answer. THorn has him as a league average OT, PFF had him down this year, but as average in 2022, very good in 2021. He's a solid dependable starter.
Ok, so "sacks aren't an OL stat" (disagree, but whatever...). Fine.
You cited PFF as having him as "average in 2022". PFF graded his passblocking as 49th our of 58 qualified tackles last season. NextGen stats graded his pass blocking as 55th out of 58 qualified tackles. His blocking was so bad that, despite having a very good 2021, the team couldn't trust him to man the LT spot so they grabbed Orlando Brown Jr in free agency and slid Williams to RT.
This year he needed to prove that last season was an anomaly, but you got more of the same from him.
Maybe he turns it around or ends up as an OK bet, but he's been BAD the last two seasons. The numbers say it (whether they're "OL stats" or not), the circumstances say it (being bumped from LT and now being allowed to hit the market), and the eye test says it.
The best thing about his play is that it leads to reddit threads like these: I am once again asking the Bengals to get rid of Jonah Williams.
Sure... and there are tons of posts on this forum all the time about how bad Trent Brown is. Reddit is where idiots go to whine, none of those people know anything or even see what he does on 90% of snaps where he's not on screen. I trust pros like Thorn a lot more than "BengalsArethebest69420"
Have to say, it would be pretty hilarious if after all the "Patriots or Jaguars" stuff he signs with the Titans
Seems like he doesn't really want to come here but the Pats are offering the most money and he's hoping the Jags or the vaunted mystery team up their offer. I'd pull the offer.
I have a complex method. I check OTC for who has the most cap space. Then I look at whether their WRs suck....
Glad we didn't make that mistake. Tenn still "fighting the last war" based on the AJ Brown move. No thanks!
Overpaying WRs over 30 who the Patriots are interested in is the new market inefficiency.
I am far from a contract expert and we don't have all the details yet but it seems pretty not that far off what they could have just paid* to Brown, whose contract was 4 for $100 and $57 guaranteed. (Yes I know it is a different regime now.)
*I do not know what their cap situation was at the time but assume that was a factor. But to trade AJ for what was ostensibly his replacement and then have to sign a different and far inferior player for a similar contract anyway a couple years later? Woof. The kind of thing that happens when you think you are smarter than you are as a GM.
They’re like the guy in a fantasy auction draft who bids 30% higher than is necessary.
They can Williams/Smith and probably still get Brown or Boyd for vets, assuming this did not destroy the WR market.
That list of contracts for WR changing teams is pretty terrifying. Perfectly happy seeing Ridley go elsewhere at those numbers…
View: https://twitter.com/ihartitz/status/1768025888212332575?s=46
View: https://twitter.com/ihartitz/status/1768025888212332575?s=46
Athletic piece says Ridley was the Pats top priority, and that their options now are to sign a LT in FA and draft a WR in the 2nd, trade for Aiyuk or Higgins (which will cost at least their 2nd and then big extension) or pivot and sign a lesser WR, and acknowledge that the team is rebuilding and won’t have a #1 WR.
https://theathletic.com/5338714/2024/03/13/patriots-calvin-ridley-wr-free-agency/?source=user_shared_articlePatriots fail to land Calvin Ridley, so what are their WR options now?
https://theathletic.com/5338714/2024/03/13/patriots-calvin-ridley-wr-free-agency/?source=user_shared_articlePatriots fail to land Calvin Ridley, so what are their WR options now?
