Going to be interesting to see who closes games for us.
Rigth now I would guess: Kemba, Smart, Tatum, Hayward, and VP
Rigth now I would guess: Kemba, Smart, Tatum, Hayward, and VP
Coming off the defections of Kyrie and Horford, this is a pretty good roster, all things considered. Danny has made some nice saves the past few days. It's not NBA championship material, barring something amazing happening, but it's a pretty good roster. And if the locker room issues were a huge part of their problem last year, and if those are now gone, then this team could be even better.So the roster is basically set, might sign a 16th like last year and have a battle for the last spot, but currently at 15.
Ballhandlers: Kemba, Smart, Edwards, Wanamaker
Wings: Brown, Hayward, Tatum, Langford, Ojeleye
Bigs: Poirier, Theis, Williams, Williams, Yabu, Kanter
6 bigs, 5 wings/swings and 4 ball handlers
Depending on the opponent, I think you’ll see Tatum or Hayward at “center” a decent amount at the end so that they can get their best 5 out there.Going to be interesting to see who closes games for us.
Rigth now I would guess: Kemba, Smart, Tatum, Hayward, and VP
I'd want to make Charlotte take Yabusele in the Charlotte deal and use his roster spot for a decent veteran who'll be looking for a minimum at this point.I’m comfortable putting Yabu to 3rd string. The guy just sucks. Second unit could use more scoring, especially if Hayward starts. Figure that one of Tatum/Brown/Hayward will be on the court in most non-blowout situations.
Top 6 are talented, but Brad will have to get quality minutes our of one of the rookies or TL/Yabu/Semi if this team is going to hit 50+ wins in a newly competitive East.1st string:
Kemba, Brown, Tatum, Kanter, Smart/Hayward
2nd string:
Smart/Hayward, Langford, Semi, Yabu/Gwill, TL/Theis
3rd string:
Wanamaker, Edwards, Yabu/Gwill, Poirier, TL/Theis
No player you can get for the minimum right now is worth more to this team than being able to package Yabu's salary with Kanter or Theis in a trade down the lineI'd want to make Charlotte take Yabusele in the Charlotte deal and use his roster spot for a decent veteran who'll be looking for a minimum at this point.
well it's 1.2M since you get 150%, but... yes it's pretty important. Markieff Morris is probably not coming here he and Marcus are waiting on Kawhi before deciding where they go, and even if he did come here, he's not going to be one of our 10 best players, so I'd rather have more ability to get a player who'll matter.I don't know. If I could get say, Markieff Morris if his market crashes, I'd rather him at 2.3M than Yabusele at 3.1M.
Would having 800K less to package in a trade be that devastating?
I'm kinda crazy, but I'm still thinking of players as players and not ballast before the season starts.
Wild stuff, I know.
I think there are quite a few players out there that could crack our rotation over say Semi or Grant Williams.well it's 1.2M since you get 150%, but... yes it's pretty important. Markieff Morris is probably not coming here he and Marcus are waiting on Kawhi before deciding where they go, and even if he did come here, he's not going to be one of our 10 best players, so I'd rather have more ability to get a player who'll matter.
Edit- to make it clear it isn't just Markieff, I doubt anyone out there for the minimum who would come here is going to crack our rotation, and an extra million + in trade flexibility could be big. And that assumes you take Yabu as completely useless, which I think he won't be in our rotation, but he was better than Markieff Morris last year, and at least he's 23 and could maybe improve.
Isn't this what people are saying though? Ainge is likely only valuing Yabu, Theis, Wannamaker as bricks with $ signs on them to balance the salary cap scales on a future deal. Carry Yabu and the gang so he doesn't have to give up a Smart as cap ballast if an interesting player pops up at the deadline or whatever. You seem to be advocating moving Yabu for something better - but is there anything meaningfully better for that sized $ slot which also preserves flexibility for Ainge?I think there are quite a few players out there that could crack our rotation over say Semi or Grant Williams.
I'd rather have an actual NBA player at a little less salary than Yabusele, when we have no idea whether the difference between that veterans minimum salary and Yabuseles would make any difference in a hypothetical trade at all. The odds of that small a difference in money being a deal breaker seems really small.
And yes, you can make the assumption that I take Yabu as completely useless.
What do you put the odds of this at though? 10%? 1%? Like if it came down to cutting it this close, like you needed 8M to match up to a guy rather than 7M? That's a real thin hypothetical to worry about to not take the opportunity to improve your roster now, no? And if it somehow happened to hit that tiny chance of having to have that extra 500K, why the heck would Smart be the next piece added? It couldn't be Semi Ojeleye? Or Brad Wanamaker if he was willing to go? It has to jump right to Marcus Smart?Isn't this what people are saying though? Ainge is likely only valuing Yabu, Theis, Wannamaker as bricks with $ signs on them to balance the salary cap scales on a future deal. Carry Yabu and the gang so he doesn't have to give up a Smart as cap ballast if an interesting player pops up at the deadline or whatever. You seem to be advocating moving Yabu for something better - but is there anything meaningfully better for that sized $ slot which also preserves flexibility for Ainge?
Maybe I'm missing your point. Edit: I can say that I'd be ticked if player X becomes available and we lose Smart because we got a 10th or 11th slot player because he was 5% better than Yabu and 1 million cheaper.
Remember when he was going to be French Draymond? Ah the good daysWhen the dancing bear awkwardly barrels into Jaylen's knee going for a loose ball in the lane we're all going to be sorry.
Yabu is an injury waiting to happen for the other 9 on the floor.
Those guys probably aren't really in the rotation either.I think there are quite a few players out there that could crack our rotation over say Semi or Grant Williams.
I'd rather have an actual NBA player at a little less salary than Yabusele, when we have no idea whether the difference between that veterans minimum salary and Yabuseles would make any difference in a hypothetical trade at all. The odds of that small a difference in money being a deal breaker seems really small.
And yes, you can make the assumption that I take Yabu as completely useless.
That strikes me as a pretty reasonable list - and I'm betting that one other guy comes from this years set of draftees - versus say one of last years holdovers.I'm hoping the top 10 are: Kemba, Smart, Brown, Tatum, Hayward, GWill, Time Lord, Poirier, Kanter, and one other guy.
Well. Wilson chandler just agreed with Brooklyn for the minimum, which for him is 2.5M, only 600K less ballast guys!, I would've taken him to be more impactful(don't know why it needs to be significantly more) than Yabu and probably is in their top 9.Those guys probably aren't really in the rotation either.
Our rotation is probably going to be:
Kemba, Smart, Brown, Tatum, Hayward, Theis, Kanter, 1 other big (Williams or Poirier), Langford, maybe Edwards? (this is the level Williams and/or Semi are at)
Maybe someone out there can sneak into the 8/9/10 slot on some nights, but that isn't a position that makes a significant impact on your record, so you'd rather it be a rookie deal guy getting those minutes to develop than getting a 10 year vet to play 5 minutes in every 4th game.
The odds someone we pick up to be the 15th man now being...
1. Significantly more impactful than Yabu
2. Significantly more impactful than the other guys 9-14 on the roster
3. Being better than the guys who hit the buyout market later in the year
are honestly probably lower than the odds that we need an extra couple million in matching. The upside is essentially nothing, the downside is losing a player you like (whether having to include someone you wouldn't want to in a trade, or missing out on a trade.) or having to pay with picks to bring in a 3rd team.
To make this more clear.... name someone available at the minimum right now, that you think would come here and would make a significant impact? Your example so far was a 30 year old who amazingly was worse than Yabu last year.
,
You missed Theis here, which makes this top ten ultra heavy in centers.I'm hoping the top 10 are: Kemba, Smart, Brown, Tatum, Hayward, GWill, Time Lord, Poirier, Kanter, and one other guy.
He could be the one other guy. The thing is, the centers are all short minutes guys for one reason or another and the points/wings are all the guys we want to get minutes.You missed Theis here, which makes this top ten ultra heavy in centers.
Agree he’s going to get a bunch of run with the second unit. If he can consistently knock down the 3 he’ll be a pretty valuable 3 and D guy.I think Semi is likely going to get a decent chance at a regular bench spot this year. I think they really like him.
I mean, Morris is beyond trash, and you have a bunch of 2-3s on there who would really struggle to find minutes, I mean Thabo? RHJ? When do they play and why do we want to give the limited 9th-11th man minutes to one of those guys over Langford? Chandler is pretty good, I don't see him fitting on this team, and I certainly don't think we were on his list before Brooklyn.Well. Wilson chandler just agreed with Brooklyn for the minimum, which for him is 2.5M, only 600K less ballast guys!, I would've taken him to be more impactful(don't know why it needs to be significantly more) than Yabu and probably is in their top 9.
A quick look through available FAs that could end up at the minimum I'd take
Markieff Morris
Rondae Hollis Jefferson
Thabo Sefolosha
Old friend Jonas Jerebko
then less likely to help, but I'd still take over having Yabu
Kenneth Faried
Luol Deng
Jarell Martin
Iman Shumpert
Justin Holiday
Jamychal Green is still out there, but I'm guessing he gets paid by an LA team eventually
Probably missing some but that's just a quick look at available guys
Except this is not how I'm thinking about this at all, as I explained a few posts above this.I mean, Morris is beyond trash, and you have a bunch of 2-3s on there who would really struggle to find minutes, I mean Thabo? RHJ? When do they play and why do we want to give the limited 9th-11th man minutes to one of those guys over Langford? Chandler is pretty good, I don't see him fitting on this team, and I certainly don't think we were on his list before Brooklyn.
The problem is you are thinking about this like Yabu's spot is a spot that plays... it isn't, every team has guys who play almost no minutes (250 or less in 82 games, last year we had 4, the year before 7) and 2 that this is some title contender squeezing out every last minute of time with aged vets to ensure the 1 seed, which it isn't. There is no value in any of those guys you mentioned being on this team. Not a drop of value. They are all bad players none of whom have any future potential with this team. Yabu, is honestly better than half of them, and probably won't play, but at least he's 23 and we have team control. And.... $1M is worth more than any of those guys.
Honestly if Danny thought anyone left out there was any good he would have added him instead of bringing back Wanamaker, or he could just add them right now as a 16th player and let them duke it out with Wanamaker for the last spot.
I get that you have this weird hate for Yabu (honestly... he was bad last year but plenty of vets were worse) but the idea of cutting him loose to add a vet minimum guy makes no sense unless that guy has a clearly defined role and minutes.... even then you're probably better off cutting loose Wanamaker.
A lot of the Board views Hayward, Brown and Tatum as interchangeable wings that can play the 4 this season. Some even suggested the 3 of them as the Celtic frontline at the end of games. So, they don't see the need to add a power forward.Except this is not how I'm thinking about this at all, as I explained a few posts above this.
I think they are short two forwards in their top nine.
I believe that Semi or Grant Williams could earn the 9th man spot, but I think it's unlikely they both earn top 9 spots
Therefore I would like to dump Yabusele, a zero for me, for a veteran forward who could take the 8th man spot that one of Semi/Grant Williams don't earn.
Honestly, this argument is wild to me. I didn't expect such push back on having to keep Yabusele over adding a veteran to a bench that looks to be maybe Smart, Theis, Semi, Grant Williams and Poirier as the top 5 options. That really looks like a bench that could use an upgrade to me. At a minimum, just a veteran who knows what he's doing at a forward spot.
I'm not holding one terrible year against Morris when he was banged up for a significant part of it. The dude was a passable starter for five straight seasons before last years lost season. If I'm betting on which guy is more likely to be a good player this season, that's an easy bet on Morris over Yabusele for me.
2 of those 3 teams played predominately with PFs the same size as Gordon Hayward, so I'm not sure that proves the point you seem to think it does.A lot of the Board views Hayward, Brown and Tatum as interchangeable wings that can play the 4 this season. Some even suggested the 3 of them as the Celtic frontline at the end of games. So, they don't see the need to add a power forward.
Needless to say, I don't agree.
Hopefully, Brad watched the playoffs and noticed the frontcourts for Milwaukee, Toronto, and Philadelphia.
Gordon Hayward (6' 8" 225lbs) with a bad wheel isn't a PF IMO, but a lot of the board feels differently.2 of those 3 teams played predominately with PFs the same size as Gordon Hayward, so I'm not sure that proves the point you seem to think it does.
Gordon Hayward (6' 8" 225lbs) with a bad wheel isn't a PF IMO, but a lot of the board feels differently.
Phil started 3 guys bigger than that.
Toronto started 2 guys bigger than that and a beast in Kawhi Leonard at the 3
Milwaukee started 3 guys bigger than that against the Celtics and Middleton at SG who is basically the same size.
He'll be much better this upcoming season. He had surgery last Summer, that screwed up his rehab timeline. So he'll continue to heal.Do you think Gordon’s wheel is still going to be shit 10 months from now. People heal.
Well, if Hayward is back to his Utah form, it will be interesting to watch Horford trying to guard him when the Celtics play the Sixers. Playing an undersized but quick 4 cuts both ways. The biggest issue will be on the glass. They will have to scramble for every rebound, including the guards. I'm guessing they will miss Rozier's rebounding more than they will miss any other facet of his game.He'll be much better this upcoming season. He had surgery last Summer, that screwed up his rehab timeline. So he'll continue to heal.
But even Utah Hayward isn't a PF or at least he wasn't with them. IMO he can be a dominant 2 or 3, why force him to pick up much bigger players?
I literally had to look at our roster to see who VP was. Some strange things would have to happen for Poirier to be getting regular rotations minutes over Kanter and Theis much less closing out games for us.Going to be interesting to see who closes games for us.
Rigth now I would guess: Kemba, Smart, Tatum, Hayward, and VP
Doesn’t that describe Theis pre-Celtics as well, except in the Bundesliga, which is a step down from La Liga?I literally had to look at our roster to see who VP was. Some strange things would have to happen for Poirier to be getting regular rotations minutes over Kanter and Theis much less closing out games for us.
He played in Liga ACB League last year while competing against a whole bunch of bigs who couldn’t cut it in the league. Gustavo Ayon, Walter Tavares, and old friends Colton Iverson and Luke Harangody.
Yeah pretty much. Theis is also a guy that you don’t want getting regular playoff rotation minutes on your team. He’s a fringe 9-10th man which is what I’d expect Poirier to be as well. Would you ever name Theis as a guy you’d expect to close out games?Doesn’t that describe Theis pre-Celtics as well, except in the Bundesliga, which is a step down from La Liga?
And against a team like Milwaukee, you can probably tell Kanter to just go chill and stand next to Lopez. The East is going to be kind of fun in terms of matchups and diversity of offensive ecosystems.I'd expect a series of matchup plays to close out games. Theis is probably the best all-around center on the team, but Poirier or even Kanter could be useful in certain situations. If you're playing the Sixers, I'd expect more Poirier for instance.
With the roster apparently complete, the whole Celtics season hinges on Gordon Hayward returning healthy and to form IMO.Well, if Hayward is back to his Utah form, it will be interesting to watch Horford trying to guard him when the Celtics play the Sixers. Playing an undersized but quick 4 cuts both ways. The biggest issue will be on the glass. They will have to scramble for every rebound, including the guards. I'm guessing they will miss Rozier's rebounding more than they will miss any other facet of his game.
It's fine to think Hayward can't play PF (I disagree in the modern game) but the point was that PHI's primary 4s for most of last year were Chandler and Harris who are both 6'8"-6'9" and weight 225 and 235. Toronto gave the most minutes at the 4 to Saikam who is 6'9" 230. Even out west, GS's PF is 6'7" 230, Portland 6'9" 220, Houston 6'6" 240. Not a lot of teams are going "big" or "heavy" at the 4, this year's Philly will be a bit of an outlier. If Hayward doesn't work at the 4, it will be more about the player than the size he has.Gordon Hayward (6' 8" 225lbs) with a bad wheel isn't a PF IMO, but a lot of the board feels differently.
Phil started 3 guys bigger than that.
Toronto started 2 guys bigger than that and a beast in Kawhi Leonard at the 3
Milwaukee started 3 guys bigger than that against the Celtics and Middleton at SG who is basically the same size.
He was also one of the best bigs in Euroleague, and plenty of guys come over from there (and ACB honestly) and become impact contributors in the NBA: Bogdanovic, Ingles, Rubio, Nurkic, Saric, Zubac, Satoransky, Hernangomez, Ibaka, Mirotic, and many moreI literally had to look at our roster to see who VP was. Some strange things would have to happen for Poirier to be getting regular rotations minutes over Kanter and Theis much less closing out games for us.
He played in Liga ACB League last year while competing against a whole bunch of bigs who couldn’t cut it in the league. Gustavo Ayon, Walter Tavares, and old friends Colton Iverson and Luke Harangody.
This seems about right. They don't really have a choice but to wait and see if Hayward is back. If he is, Hayward+Kemba+solid is the basis of a really good offense. If he's not, they're a bit screwed near-term anyway.With the roster apparently complete, the whole Celtics season hinges on Gordon Hayward returning healthy and to form IMO.
I think you'll get Kemba picking up Kyrie's scoring slack. And the J's will grow physically and improve with the added responsibility. We now have enough different bodies to throw at the 5, plus Brad is adept at getting the most out of flawed players (like a Kanter) and hiding their warts. Rozier sucked as a bench piece so he won't be missed. MaMo while a skilled shooter didn't move the ball and was abysmal on defense. Terry/Mamo minutes will be absorbed by others as competent.
The real pivot, IMO, is Gordon Hayward. He will have to fill a lot of Al Horford's role. Initiator on offense, promote ball movement, hit big 3pt shots, and help on the defensive rotations. This is the crux of my biggest concern with this team. Al was that glue guy on defense, who positioned himself not only to guard his man but cut off the lane, alter shots at the rim and help others. A plus plus defensive 5 would have really aided this team. Nerlens Noel was that last, cheap piece, but Klutch seems to have him in their web and they are the Celtics biggest nemesis at the moment.
We'll see how it plays out, tough to predict. BUT the team has enough filler, draft picks, and payroll flexibility to make a major move on Dec 15th to improve whatever flaws appear.
Who are the guys that we think might end up being available? There's not a lot of talent on expiring, but we are set up if someone with a year or 2 left on their deal decides they want out from somewhere.We'll see how it plays out, tough to predict. BUT the team has enough filler, draft picks, and payroll flexibility to make a major move on Dec 15th to improve whatever flaws appear.
For buyouts, hard to guess now, but guys making good money on the last year of a deal with a team likely to be bad include:Who are the guys that we think might end up being available? There's not a lot of talent on expiring, but we are set up if someone with a year or 2 left on their deal decides they want out from somewhere.
I think the Rockets will take a step back and Capela will be available. I know there are varying opinions on the board about his fit though.For buyouts, hard to guess now, but guys making good money on the last year of a deal with a team likely to be bad include:
Mozgov
Biyombo
Henson
Mahinmi
Howard
Trades are harder to guess, but basically everyone the Knicks just signed will be available, and if a team disappoints early their vets will likely be for sale.
Yeah, I could see something like Capela playing great, but Houston being screwed by depth and Paul's aging. And after December 15 (I think?), the Celtics could easily trade for him without giving up Smart.For buyouts, hard to guess now, but guys making good money on the last year of a deal with a team likely to be bad include:
Mozgov
Biyombo
Henson
Mahinmi
Howard
Trades are harder to guess, but basically everyone the Knicks just signed will be available, and if a team disappoints early their vets will likely be for sale.
So much time between now and then, 6 months seems like a lifetime in today's NBA. The most important thing is Danny has all the pieces necessary to strike. I think he'll be more aggressive going forward. He has probably felt like his hands were tied with Kyrie's contract last season.Who are the guys that we think might end up being available? There's not a lot of talent on expiring, but we are set up if someone with a year or 2 left on their deal decides they want out from somewhere.