Celtics in 18-19

[HomeRunBaker]

Why would open looks preclude them from being in rhythm? Do you have any sort of data or any evidence to explain why we shouldn’t expect them to hit open shots at their historical averages?

I don't know of any data such as this. The only way I can explain it is that if your historical average is under one set of more optimal conditions and you are now shooting in another set of conditions you shouldn't expect to make shots at those historical averages until your shots are taken under those other conditions.

It is at least appearing to me that Tatum, Rozier, and Jaylen are the 3 players who aren't getting their offense in the same rhythm as last year regardless if they are open or not.

 

[Light-Tower-Power]

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/celtics/2018/11/22/celtics-are-angry-and-trust-major-issue/NCseBiUXwNMYNK0F2HOkSL/story.html

Maybe a little hot takey but it seems like this team has some locker room problems.

 

[amarshal2]

I don't know of any data such as this. The only way I can explain it is that if your historical average is under one set of more optimal conditions and you are now shooting in another set of conditions you shouldn't expect to make shots at those historical averages until your shots are taken under those other conditions.

It is at least appearing to me that Tatum, Rozier, and Jaylen are the 3 players who aren't getting their offense in the same rhythm as last year regardless if they are open or not.

What if we compared their 2017 and 2018 shooting under a variety of conditions including things like minutes, usage, distance of shot, and shots/min and then tried to see if it could explain FG%?

(I haven’t run any regression analysis but I have looked at these things and done some basic algebra and my conclusion was they’re just missing.)

 

[lovegtm]

It really is that simple.


https://www.barstoolsports.com/boston/when-it-rains-it-sure-does-pour?_referrer=twitter&_branch_match_id=484619048251847244/

This analysis is overly simplistic. It doesn't account for the other 50 odd possessions in a game. The Celtics are atrocious at getting to the rim and the line, which likely caps their offensive potential at a lower level than teams that generate 2-4 fewer open looks per game, but do those things better.

Will the offense look better if/when open looks fall? Absolutely - - the starters, in particular can't really get worse. But they won't fix their offensive issues until they either start getting to the paint and getting free throws, or find a way to launch 3s at an historically unprecedented level.

HRB's rhythm concept is interesting, but it's hard to test in a quickly implementable way, and still wouldn't solve the issue of shot profile.

 

[amarshal2]

[

This analysis is overly simplistic. It doesn't account for the other 50 odd possessions in a game. The Celtics are atrocious at getting to the rim and the line, which likely caps their offensive potential at a lower level than teams that generate 2-4 fewer open looks per game, but do those things better.

They’re performing about the same as last year within 3 feet both in terms of opportunities per game and FG% on those opportunities. They’re taking a similar number of free throws per game.

 

[lovegtm]

[

They’re performing about the same as last year within 3 feet both in terms of opportunities per game and FG% on those opportunities. They’re taking a similar number of free throws per game.

Wasn't last year's offense 18th or so? I agree that if they made their open shots, they'd probably look a lot like last year's team in point differential. That wasn't a championship-caliber team though, and simply hitting these looks with the same shot profile still likely leaves the Celtics in a tier below the elites.

 

[amarshal2]

Wasn't last year's offense 18th or so? I agree that if they made their open shots, they'd probably look a lot like last year's team in point differential. That wasn't a championship-caliber team though, and simply hitting these looks with the same shot profile still likely leaves the Celtics in a tier below the elites.

Ultimately I agree. I was expecting them to be better offensively than last season not 28th in the league or whatever. However, the data doesn’t exactly support the “not being in rhythm” theory of missed open shots, which is what the post you quoted was responding to.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Ultimately I agree. I was expecting them to be better offensively than last season not 28th in the league or whatever. However, the data doesn’t exactly support the “not being in rhythm” theory of missed open shots, which is what the post you quoted was responding to.

What if data does not exist to support something that is unquantifiable? That doesn't mean that this something isn't occurring. Marcus Smart also believes there is more to the problem than simply making shots...….as does Brad.

“It’s the same old song,” he said in a quiet, matter-of-fact tone. “You know, it gets annoying. I don’t even know what to say at this point. You’ve already done heard it. I’m tired of talking about it. I don’t know.”

“I am,” he said, “but we’ve got to stop sugarcoating things. That’s the problem. We’ve got to stop sugarcoating it. We’ve just got to call it what it is. We’re playing like punks; that’s just what it is.

“It’s not everybody. You’ve got guys out there that are playing and playing hard. That’s some, but we don’t have all five guys at the same time. So teams are going to continue to whup us.”

“It’s us not playing hard,” he said. “It has nothing to do with being tentative, because obviously you see guys jacking up shots, so it can’t be us being tentative.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/celtics/2018/11/marcus_smart_on_celtics_we_re_playing_like_punks

"We're not playing with the same personality that we did last year, and that's the easy way to describe it, and the 50,000 issues are below that," Stevens said.

“This is a lot of things,” Stevens said. “We have a myriad of issues we have to fix.”

http://www.espn.com/nba/recap?gameId=401070936

https://hoopshype.com/rumor/1220357/

We're on to Atlanta...…..​

 

[amarshal2]

What if data does not exist to support something that is unquantifiable? That doesn't mean that this something isn't occurring. Marcus Smart also believes there is more to the problem than simply making shots...….as does Brad.









http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/celtics/2018/11/marcus_smart_on_celtics_we_re_playing_like_punks





https://hoopshype.com/rumor/1220357/

We're on to Atlanta...…..​

This is sorta shifting the goal posts from rhythm to effort. It’s definitely difficult to quantify effort and so it’s mostly a matter of opinion.

Do I think effort has been the biggest problem or even a big problem this year? Do I think consistent effort was a big problem against the Knicks?

I do not.

Re: knicks game - they won every hustle category and generally out played the Knicks on the floor. I think they lacked focus at times but they won the turnover battle 17-8. I thought they were trying to defend the three point line and probably could’ve done better, but mostly the Knicks made difficult shots. Effort really wasn’t the problem IMO. Shooting was the problem.

Re: this season — their level of effort to me has typically at least matched their opponents. It would be real nice if every game was like the Raptors game. They’d win more for sure. But that’s not the NBA and it’s not like they’re JR Smith out there. Nobody leads the nba in scoring defense with sub-par effort.

Re: smart/Brad - I think it’s revisionist history to say they won last year by playing like the raptors game every night. It was just like this year, lapses followed by an intense period of focus in the second half or 4th quarter. Their lapses this year are mostly on the offensive end and mostly about shot selection, working as a team, and about making shots, not effort.

I think it’s pretty rare to see a team give a true 100% effort game from wire to wire in the nba. I don’t think I saw the Celtics do it once last year and I thought the raptors game this year was about as good as any I’ve seen.

The only time I can really recall any team putting in 100% for a full game recently is the Rockets throughout the WCF last year. They had next level intensity throughout several games you just don’t see in the nba, and that’s how they almost unseated GSW.

Finally I think the effort narrative has the risk of poisoning the locker room. Jaylen and TRo have looked straight up dejected lately. If the focus was on why they’re not making shots instead of questioning their heart everybody would be better off.

Onto Atlanta...

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

I’m in violent agreement with the last post.

The whole discussion reminds me a ton of JBJ’s early-season struggles. Results-wise, he was awful. But we looked at the batted ball profiles, Cora looked at the batted ball profiles and effort behind the scenes, and everyone counseled, “stay the course.”

And, lo and behold, babip evened out and JBJ became a very useful player in the second half.

While there were definitely pockets of “he’ll just never hit consistently in MLB,” etc, we had leadership in the locker room and management counseling patience and showing support. That kept the vultures at bay.

Here, I think it’s a similar case of the analytics showing success is just around the corner. This team is not going to go 1-13 on 3s to start every game. They’re too good. We’ve seen them be good. They have past stats that say they’re too good.

Patience.

But we also can’t have Brad and team leaders subtweeting everyone about hustle and grind at the same time. That’s toxic and can turn that bad luck into bad attitude and self-fulfilling prophecy.

Brad has to pull a Cora and trust the system and the talent to win out.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

There is no "moving of the goalposts"......the team has had chemistry issues with too many chiefs and not enough Indians from Day One. Rhythm, cohesion, effort, chemistry......call it what you will. When the glue player, the normally reserved head coach, and now also Marcus Morris are speaking out about this I take it as confirmation of what I've been witnessing (even if I didn't really need confirmation to acknowledge it).


“Sometimes it’s a little frustrating to see them getting down on themselves as hard as they are, and for their moods to be as bad as it is,” Morris said. “But at the same time, they’re young, man, and that’s what happens. You learn from it. And I was the same when I was younger. You learn from it just like anything else. So my biggest thing is hopefully down the road they figure it out. And like I said, it’s not just the young guys. We have guys that aren’t playing as well as they want and their moods haven’t been the best. Down the road I just hope that we get it better. But we just have to focus on our energy around the team and focus on our next-play mentality, our next-game mentality, and just having better energy.
– via The Athletic
Marcus Morris, Boston Celtics

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

This is sorta shifting the goal posts from rhythm to effort. It’s definitely difficult to quantify effort and so it’s mostly a matter of opinion.

Do I think effort has been the biggest problem or even a big problem this year? Do I think consistent effort was a big problem against the Knicks?

I do not.

Re: knicks game - they won every hustle category and generally out played the Knicks on the floor. I think they lacked focus at times but they won the turnover battle 17-8. I thought they were trying to defend the three point line and probably could’ve done better, but mostly the Knicks made difficult shots. Effort really wasn’t the problem IMO. Shooting was the problem.

Re: this season — their level of effort to me has typically at least matched their opponents. It would be real nice if every game was like the Raptors game. They’d win more for sure. But that’s not the NBA and it’s not like they’re JR Smith out there. Nobody leads the nba in scoring defense with sub-par effort.

Re: smart/Brad - I think it’s revisionist history to say they won last year by playing like the raptors game every night. It was just like this year, lapses followed by an intense period of focus in the second half or 4th quarter. Their lapses this year are mostly on the offensive end and mostly about shot selection, working as a team, and about making shots, not effort.

I think it’s pretty rare to see a team give a true 100% effort game from wire to wire in the nba. I don’t think I saw the Celtics do it once last year and I thought the raptors game this year was about as good as any I’ve seen.

The only time I can really recall any team putting in 100% for a full game recently is the Rockets throughout the WCF last year. They had next level intensity throughout several games you just don’t see in the nba, and that’s how they almost unseated GSW.

Finally I think the effort narrative has the risk of poisoning the locker room. Jaylen and TRo have looked straight up dejected lately. If the focus was on why they’re not making shots instead of questioning their heart everybody would be better off.

Onto Atlanta...

I've said pretty much the same thing but you've said it much better. One thing though.

I agree that for the most part they are getting good shots on the offensive end. I mean off the top of my head against NYK I can remember two wide-open alley oops that they missed in the first half and two wide open GH threes that he is going to start burying (and ironically the one did bury before the 4Q being called off because of a NYK penalty). Those buckets certainly would have changed the narrative.

However, I've also noticed that in key moments, it seems like everyone wants the ball in their hands to jack up that critical shot, and more often that not, they've missed those shots. KI has earned the right to take these hero ball shots but I seem to recall that in various spots JT and MM and MS and JB and even Al have opted to take these shots, and they've not made them consistently.

In other words, it seems like everyone is trying to do a little too much. They also don't seem to be having much fun out there (though they'd surely be having more fun if they hit a few more shots).

They desperately need a 20-point blowout of a good team right now.

 

[lovegtm]

I’m in violent agreement with the last post.

The whole discussion reminds me a ton of JBJ’s early-season struggles. Results-wise, he was awful. But we looked at the batted ball profiles, Cora looked at the batted ball profiles and effort behind the scenes, and everyone counseled, “stay the course.”

And, lo and behold, babip evened out and JBJ became a very useful player in the second half.

While there were definitely pockets of “he’ll just never hit consistently in MLB,” etc, we had leadership in the locker room and management counseling patience and showing support. That kept the vultures at bay.

Here, I think it’s a similar case of the analytics showing success is just around the corner. This team is not going to go 1-13 on 3s to start every game. They’re too good. We’ve seen them be good. They have past stats that say they’re too good.

Patience.

But we also can’t have Brad and team leaders subtweeting everyone about hustle and grind at the same time. That’s toxic and can turn that bad luck into bad attitude and self-fulfilling prophecy.

Brad has to pull a Cora and trust the system and the talent to win out.

The team's shot profile is horrible. A close-ish baseball analogy would be a guy who had a poor BABIP, but also didn't ever walk (free throws) , and didn't hit for much power (shots at the rim) . Sure, he'll improve once his BABIP regresses, but the max potential would be capped.

If their 3s had dropped a bit more this year, we'd probably be looking at a 12-6ish team, and no one would be freaking out. But the offense would still be lower half in the league, and that's not good enough to be a championship contender.

Different note: how much are the new rules affecting their ability to make the other team's elite scorers uncomfortable? The Celtics last year were pretty brutally physical, and having that taken away can't be helping.

 

[DJnVa]

I’m in violent agreement with the last post.

The whole discussion reminds me a ton of JBJ’s early-season struggles. Results-wise, he was awful. But we looked at the batted ball profiles, Cora looked at the batted ball profiles and effort behind the scenes, and everyone counseled, “stay the course.”

And, lo and behold, babip evened out and JBJ became a very useful player in the second half.

While there were definitely pockets of “he’ll just never hit consistently in MLB,” etc, we had leadership in the locker room and management counseling patience and showing support. That kept the vultures at bay.

Here, I think it’s a similar case of the analytics showing success is just around the corner. This team is not going to go 1-13 on 3s to start every game. They’re too good. We’ve seen them be good. They have past stats that say they’re too good.

Patience.

But we also can’t have Brad and team leaders subtweeting everyone about hustle and grind at the same time. That’s toxic and can turn that bad luck into bad attitude and self-fulfilling prophecy.

Brad has to pull a Cora and trust the system and the talent to win out.

Isn't the difference here that with JBJ Cora and the team had no problems with things and here we have teammates and coaches saying it's not just SSS?

 

[DJnVa]

If their 3s had dropped a bit more this year, we'd probably be looking at a 12-6ish team, and no one would be freaking out. But the offense would still be lower half in the league, and that's not good enough to be a championship contender..

Wouldn't more shots falling lead to better defense?

 

[benhogan]

There is no "moving of the goalposts"......the team has had chemistry issues with too many chiefs and not enough Indians from Day One. Rhythm, cohesion, effort, chemistry......call it what you will. When the glue player, the normally reserved head coach, and now also Marcus Morris are speaking out about this I take it as confirmation of what I've been witnessing (even if I didn't really need confirmation to acknowledge it).

I agree. We do have too many Chiefs playing. Sounds like a change in player rotations is necessary. Which Indians do you propose to play more?

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I agree. We do have too many Chiefs playing. Sounds like a change in player rotations is necessary. Which Indians do you propose to play more?

I've been consistent in saying that Ainge's roster construction to begin the season was awful and that this is what needs to be addressed before you'll begin to see change since those "Indian-types" aren't currently on the roster or are not able to play since you cannot give DNP-CD's to Rozier, Jaylen, or whoever else needs to be moved. Contrary to what some are saying...…..18 games is not a small sample size to begin seeing positive change. Not only haven't we see positive change but we are now hearing from at least 3 players and one head coach about how things have actually deteriorated over that time.

I've said pretty much the same thing but you've said it much better. One thing though.

I agree that for the most part they are getting good shots on the offensive end. I mean off the top of my head against NYK I can remember two wide-open alley oops that they missed in the first half and two wide open GH threes that he is going to start burying (and ironically the one did bury before the 4Q being called off because of a NYK penalty). Those buckets certainly would have changed the narrative.

However, I've also noticed that in key moments, it seems like everyone wants the ball in their hands to jack up that critical shot, and more often that not, they've missed those shots. KI has earned the right to take these hero ball shots but I seem to recall that in various spots JT and MM and MS and JB and even Al have opted to take these shots, and they've not made them consistently.

In other words, it seems like everyone is trying to do a little too much. They also don't seem to be having much fun out there (though they'd surely be having more fun if they hit a few more shots).

They desperately need a 20-point blowout of a good team right now.

As much as I've mocked the "Brad HOF coach" angle I will defend him here as I did in the preseason calling this a nearly impossible situation for a head coach to handle with so much money on the table for so many players leading to horrible chemistry/offensive rhythm. I'm sure Ainge was viewing this regular season up until the trade deadline as an evaluation period as all that truly matters right now are the playoff results...….but this is quickly turning into his worse case scenario sans major injury. We are more likely to be down 20 to Atlanta tonight then we are beating a good team in a blowout. ​

 

[lovegtm]

As much as I've mocked the "Brad HOF coach" angle I will defend him here as I did in the preseason calling this a nearly impossible situation for a head coach to handle with so much money on the table for so many players leading to horrible chemistry/offensive rhythm. I'm sure Ainge was viewing this regular season up until the trade deadline as an evaluation period as all that truly matters right now are the playoff results...….but this is quickly turning into his worse case scenario sans major injury. We are more likely to be down 20 to Atlanta tonight then we are beating a good team in a blowout. ​

I thought you were too negative in the preseason, but I'm ready at this point to say that you were definitely right re roster construction, and I'm interested to see what Ainge does now. He hates selling assets low (even the Bradley trade, which looked like that, was a big win), but he's in serious danger of losing the most important piece, motivated Kyrie, if he doesn't fix things soon.

 

[JCizzle]

At this point I don't care about Rozier and his value. The sole focus of this team needs to be getting Tatum, Brown, and Hayward back to normal. Feed them at the expense of everyone else. Especially Brown and Hayward.

I'd also like to see some more '2018 playoff' lineups out there. Start the game like normal, but then use a lineup of Rozier, Brown, Tatum, Baynes and Smart/Morris/Semi. Let Tatum play some point forward in that unit. Kyrie, Hayward and Horford can work on focusing on their chemistry.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

I thought you were too negative in the preseason, but I'm ready at this point to say that you were definitely right re roster construction, and I'm interested to see what Ainge does now. He hates selling assets low (even the Bradley trade, which looked like that, was a big win), but he's in serious danger of losing the most important piece, motivated Kyrie, if he doesn't fix things soon.

The talk of losing Kyrie is premature at best. We are collectively suffering through a rough start and I get that people are concerned. However a win streak or even just .600 ball fixes a lot. I know there is a lot of debate about rotations and how Brad is managing this type of squad but ultimately, you either trust Stevens, Ainge et al to figure this out or you don't. And if you think they are incapable of ironing out the kinks, the Celtics have much larger problems than retaining Kyrie Irving.

 

[lovegtm]

The talk of losing Kyrie is premature at best. We are collectively suffering through a rough start and I get that people are concerned. However a win streak or even just .600 ball fixes a lot. I know there is a lot of debate about rotations and how Brad is managing this type of squad but ultimately, you either trust Stevens, Ainge et al to figure this out or you don't. And if you think they are incapable of ironing out the kinks, the Celtics have much larger problems than retaining Kyrie Irving.

I trust them to figure it out on the floor, and I trust them to get Kyrie to stay. However, given how bad the issues have been to this point, I'm interested to see what the moves are, since I think some of them could be quite drastic.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

At this point I don't care about Rozier and his value. The sole focus of this team needs to be getting Tatum, Brown, and Hayward back to normal. Feed them at the expense of everyone else. Especially Brown and Hayward.

I'd also like to see some more '2018 playoff' lineups out there. Start the game like normal, but then use a lineup of Rozier, Brown, Tatum, Baynes and Smart/Morris/Semi. Let Tatum play some point forward in that unit. Kyrie, Hayward and Horford can work on focusing on working their chemistry.

As an expiring contract due a huge deal I question whether there was much of a market above a 2nd round pick for Rozier. His greatest value to the Celtics wasn't in trade but in production in this his final season as a Celtic either as a scoring guard off the bench or as Kyrie injury insurance. He still provides the latter however would need to get his head straight to provide the former which isn't likely due to his contract situation. Either way this trade deadline is going to be busy with this team a prime candidate to peak at the right time once these issues are ironed out between Dec 15th (many players becoming eligible to be traded) to after February 8th (trade deadline).

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Kyrie has Indian heritage in him as his mother was a member of a tribe. Can't really hate on Kyrie for feeling this way at all.

 

[benhogan]

I've been consistent in saying that Ainge's roster construction to begin the season was awful and that this is what needs to be addressed before you'll begin to see change since those "Indian-types" aren't currently on the roster or are not able to play since you cannot give DNP-CD's to Rozier, Jaylen, or whoever else needs to be moved. Contrary to what some are saying...…..18 games is not a small sample size to begin seeing positive change. Not only haven't we see positive change but we are now hearing from at least 3 players and one head coach about how things have actually deteriorated over that time.

Disagree. There are "Indian-type" or lunchpail players on this team. They are Baynes, Smart, Theis and Semi. Brad has started mixing in those lunchpail players a bit more beginning with Baynes in the starting lineup.

Hopefully, you caught last nights game and got to watch one the greatest scoring first quarters (45pts) in Celtic history. Led by none other than Baynes, a completely dominant performance by Aron.

 

[lovegtm]

Disagree. There are "Indian-type" or lunchpail players on this team. They are Baynes, Smart, Theis and Semi. Brad has started mixing in those lunchpail players a bit more beginning with Baynes in the starting lineup.

Hopefully, you caught last nights game and got to watch one the greatest scoring first quarters (45pts) in Celtic history. Led by none other than Baynes, a completely dominant performance by Aron.

The issue is that none of those lunchpail guys are reliable shooters. I think HRB means that the team needs more Morris types, guys who slot comfortably into a role, who are willing and capable shooters, but don't think their primary contribution is shot creation. Those types cost less than Brown or good Rozier, and also help create a more decisive, less turn-taking offense.

I saw the first quarter last night. It's nice when all 3s go in, and the team was playing decisively. I also saw the 2nd and 3rd quarters, when they scored 16 & 17 points, and the decisiveness also went away.

I'm comfortable saying, 19 games into the season, that the team's offense would look a lot better if its creators were surrounded by role players who could shoot. I think Baynes in the starting lineup works well because he is one of those types when his shot is on, but that just makes the logjam even worse when (for example) Rozier, Brown, and Hayward have to share the floor later in games.

tldr; the redundancy is a real issue currently, and I think they'll look to fix it sooner than later.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Disagree. There are "Indian-type" or lunchpail players on this team. They are Baynes, Smart, Theis and Semi. Brad has started mixing in those lunchpail players a bit more beginning with Baynes in the starting lineup.

Hopefully, you caught last nights game and got to watch one the greatest scoring first quarters (45pts) in Celtic history. Led by none other than Baynes, a completely dominant performance by Aron.

Don't misrepresent my points which have been consistent.

You can't play those guys in their roles when those positions are filled with Chiefs (I misspoke in post above damn dyslexia). Last year we had success when multiple Chiefs were out which allows the team and the Indians to thrive. Until injuries or trades occur I don't see this happening as you have to play the Chiefs.

Baynes was fine and was not in the lineup with Horford last night so I don't know how this is relevant to my objections to playing Baynes and Horford together. I don't mind Baynes playing the Amir role if Horford is going to then come off the bench but starting them together isn't optimal the way teams are playing the game now.

I saw the first quarter last night. It's nice when all 3s go in, and the team was playing decisively. I also saw the 2nd and 3rd quarters, when they scored 16 & 17 points, and the decisiveness also went away.

Yes, for one of the few times this season we were out there reacting and just balling without thinking. It looked so natural.......maybe this was the affect of playing the Hawks I don't know. Then later in the game we went back to hesitancy and uncertainty.

 

[benhogan]

Don't misrepresent my points which have been consistent.

You can't play those guys in their roles when those positions are filled with Chiefs (I misspoke in post above damn dyslexia). Last year we had success when multiple Chiefs were out which allows the team and the Indians to thrive. Until injuries or trades occur I don't see this happening as you have to play the Chiefs.

Baynes was fine and was not in the lineup with Horford last night so I don't know how this is relevant to my objections to playing Baynes and Horford together. I don't mind Baynes playing the Amir role if Horford is going to then come off the bench but starting them together isn't optimal the way teams are playing the game now.




Yes, for one of the few times this season we were out there reacting and just balling without thinking. It looked so natural.......maybe this was the affect of playing the Hawks I don't know. Then later in the game we went back to hesitancy and uncertainty.

Come on, you've been anti-Baynes long enough, calling him one of the worst rotation players on this team and an offensive liability. I haven't misrepresented your stance on him at all. Al can easily play the 4 with Aron, like he did last season (one of Al's better seasons). Its high time you jumped on that Baynes train.

Shooting and scoring isn't the only thing that happens on the offensive side of the floor. Physical screens, solid picks, passes, rebounds, drawing fouls make a big difference.

Just watch the first 10 minutes of the game last night, he walked off the floor +20 with 2:33 left in Q1. Baynes either (1) set a screen which freed up a shot, (2) handed the ball off to Kyrie and set a pick to open up a shot, (3) drew a foul down low, (4) grabbed an offensive board or tipped a ball out on the offensive glass, (5) hit a shot and scored, (6) changed multiple shots at the rim on defense.

If you don't believe me go to the Hustle Stats page on NBA.com.
Aron Baynes ranks:
1. #3 in the NBA for Screen Assists per 36 (7.4)
2. #2 in the NBA for Charges Drawn per 36 (.79)
3. #3 in the NBA in Box Outs per 36 (16.5)

https://stats.nba.com/players/hustle-leaders/

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Come on, you've been anti-Baynes long enough, calling him one of the worst rotation players on this team and an offensive liability.

I'll call you out on finding a post by me calling Baynes an offensive liability and this entire thing began with you wanting him starting with Horford which I had laid out my position on why this was an awful idea...….one that Brad agrees with as he announced this morning that Horford will be coming off the bench to mix up the rotation as he has few other options. Baynes is fine in a limited role......with none of those minutes being paired with Horford.

He is our worst individual regular rotation player per Brad at 14 mpg with nobody else under 23 mpg and by the league as by next summer he'll be the only one not on a rookie deal earning less than Smart's $12.5m. He does hustle though I give you that.

 

[DJnVa]

I saw the first quarter last night. It's nice when all 3s go in, and the team was playing decisively. I also saw the 2nd and 3rd quarters, when they scored 16 & 17 points, and the decisiveness also went away.

They scored 21 in the 3rd quarter, not 17.

And, it's basketball--when teams score 45 in the 1st and lead by 22 it's just a different game from then on. Despite scoring just 37 across the 2nd and 3rd quarter they allowed just 41.

 

[benhogan]

I'm trying to not go down the HRB rabbit hole here, since I agree with 95% of your takes. BUT you've been consistently anti-Baynes playing any significant minutes or starting. McPickl, Sam Ray Not and others have also offered the Baynes case and you have gone out of your way to shoot them down as well. Just offer your mea culpa, your allegiance to All of Australia and we'll be done with it.


posts from the last week:

Stevens uses Baynes to buy minutes against 2nd units.....I don't see where he is nasty against any particular type player. Playing an inferior guy more minutes against better players does not sound like optimal strategy to me.

This one is DVR'd and no idea when I'll get to it. Who is checking Trey Burke and Is anyone contesting his 3's or keeping him out of the lane?

So have we cooled on this Aron Baynes thing being a fix? The problem with this team isn't rotations......the problem is an awful personnel fit with redundancy on spots on the floor along with too much redundancy in skillsets.

Which are all characteristics of a bad personnel fit. The team is a mental trainwreck right now. Jaylen's play at the end is a microcosm of this Celtics team right now. Hey at least Aron Baynes is starting in the Amir "one rotation and sit for the night" role.

Ok, which one of you guys is Janos.
Of course it isn't. It has never been the problem just as it was never the solution. The only positive is that our worst rotation player now gets fewer minutes in the old Amir role with Theis taking those 2nd unit big minutes.

 

[mcpickl]

I'll call you out on finding a post by me calling Baynes an offensive liability and this entire thing began with you wanting him starting with Horford which I had laid out my position on why this was an awful idea...….one that Brad agrees with as he announced this morning that Horford will be coming off the bench to mix up the rotation as he has few other options. Baynes is fine in a limited role......with none of those minutes being paired with Horford.

Where did he announce this? I can't find it. Was it a sound bite?

Figured you'd be raising holy hell about Horford coming off the bench in favor of Baynes starting.

 

[benhogan]

Where did he announce this? I can't find it. Was it a sound bite?

Figured you'd be raising holy hell about Horford coming off the bench in favor of Baynes starting.

https://celticswire.usatoday.com/2018/11/24/gordon-hayward-out-as-al-horford-returns-to-celtics-lineup-vs-mavs/

says Horford is starting with Hayward and Rozier out

 

[mcpickl]

https://celticswire.usatoday.com/2018/11/24/gordon-hayward-out-as-al-horford-returns-to-celtics-lineup-vs-mavs/

says Horford is starting with Hayward and Rozier out

This article doesn't say anything about Brad Stevens announcing Horford will be coming off the bench.

 

[DJnVa]

Yeah, I think he's providing evidence that the "Horford to the bench thing" isn't happening. At least tonight.

 

[benhogan]

This article doesn't say anything about Brad Stevens announcing Horford will be coming off the bench.

The notion that Horford and Baynes can't coexist together on the floor is beyond absurd. They played great together last season. In fact, they were one of the most efficient pairings on the team.

https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/?Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612738&GroupQuantity=2

https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/?Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612738&GroupQuantity=3

 

[HomeRunBaker]

This article doesn't say anything about Brad Stevens announcing Horford will be coming off the bench.

Someone reliable tweeted it this morning. He has since taken it down and I don't recall who it was. Stein, Woj, or Shams I'm guessing.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

The notion that Horford and Baynes can't coexist together on the floor is beyond absurd. They played great together last season. In fact, they were one of the most efficient pairings on the team.

https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/?Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612738&GroupQuantity=2

https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/?Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612738&GroupQuantity=3

Last season the game was played MUCH differently than this season. We've been over this. For all the love you guys give Brad, forget my opinion......can't you trust HIM on this one?

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I'm trying to not go down the HRB rabbit hole here, since I agree with 95% of your takes. BUT you've been consistently anti-Baynes playing any significant minutes or starting. McPickl, Sam Ray Not and others have also offered the Baynes case and you have gone out of your way to shoot them down as well. Just offer your mea culpa, your allegiance to All of Australia and we'll be done with it.


posts from the last week:

Again.....where did I ever state Baynes was an offensive liability? He's a short minute big who I don't feel Brad will use in tandem with Horford except maybe in rare situations.

 

[JCizzle]

Terry Rozier is the biggest problem facing the Celtics right now. When JJ Barrea is ripping easy layups at will...

 

[mcpickl]

Last season the game was played MUCH differently than this season. We've been over this. For all the love you guys give Brad, forget my opinion......can't you trust HIM on this one?

Cool argument.

So since Danny and Brad are both great at their jobs, should we just not talk about Celtics issues?

Just shut down the forum?

Good grief.

And no, the game isn't being played MUCH differently this year. The Celtics are playing at a pace about three possessions faster than last year. So Baynes playing about a third of the minutes would see an extra possession from each team more than he would've in those minutes last year. I think he'll be OK. He's not Jahlil Okafor. He's not struggling to get up and down. He rarely gets beat down the floor. Teams are playing about as big as they did last year, especially at the beginning of games. It's a non-issue (if I'm allowed to talk about it, maybe that's off the table too?)

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Cool argument.

So since Danny and Brad are both great at their jobs, should we just not talk about Celtics issues?

Just shut down the forum?

Good grief.

And no, the game isn't being played MUCH differently this year. The Celtics are playing at a pace about three possessions faster than last year. So Baynes playing about a third of the minutes would see an extra possession from each team more than he would've in those minutes last year. I think he'll be OK. He's not Jahlil Okafor. He's not struggling to get up and down. He rarely gets beat down the floor. Teams are playing about as big as they did last year, especially at the beginning of games. It's a non-issue (if I'm allowed to talk about it, maybe that's off the table too?)

Sure come in and discuss it if you want jist don't expect anything to change because yes, the game is being played far differently this season and Brad recognizes that so playing two bigs against faster, more perimeter oriented offenses is only going to create mismatches. Many teams don't even use a 4 anymore......Dallas for instance plays Barnes, a natural 2/3, at this position. Is this the matchup the "2 big" supporters really want to see for Horford (or Baynes)?

I read through the game thread and people were saying that Horford is too slow to play the 5.......so we want to play him at the 4 so he's exclusively defending the 3-point line while having to use his lateral quickness against quicker/faster offensive players?

I love discussing different fixes but man don't they have to make some type of fundamental sense to improve the team for it to warrant discussion?

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Terry Rozier is the biggest problem facing the Celtics right now. When JJ Barrea is ripping easy layups at will...

I'm starting to wonder now if the move to make is Rozier for a Shane Larkin type player and a pick. They seem to miss Larkin's ablity to defend small, quick guards while not really having a need for Rozier at all. One would think Rozier could do that defensive job, but either he's not into his role this year or he can't.

 

[amarshal2]

I'm starting to wonder now if the move to make is Rozier for a Shane Larkin type player and a pick. They seem to miss Larkin's ablity to defend small, quick guards while not really having a need for Rozier at all. One would think Rozier could do that defensive job, but either he's not into his role this year or he can't.

Rozier’s lateral quickness is not the problem. He is an explosive athlete. I don’t think trading Rozier for Larkin makes any kind of sense. Either coach up Rozier or trade him for a guy who is actually a good defender.

 

[benhogan]

Sure come in and discuss it if you want jist don't expect anything to change because yes, the game is being played far differently this season and Brad recognizes that so playing two bigs against faster, more perimeter oriented offenses is only going to create mismatches. Many teams don't even use a 4 anymore......Dallas for instance plays Barnes, a natural 2/3, at this position. Is this the matchup the "2 big" supporters really want to see for Horford (or Baynes)?
I read through the game thread and people were saying that Horford is too slow to play the 5.......so we want to play him at the 4 so he's exclusively defending the 3-point line while having to use his lateral quickness against quicker/faster offensive players?

I love discussing different fixes but man don't they have to make some type of fundamental sense to improve the team for it to warrant discussion?

Past statistics and results show Baynes/Horford can play together. Seems like the concept of small ball was taken to literal and anyone that has height/size is not capable of playing hoops together. When in fact small ball should be called 3pt ball where outside shooting is the prerequisite in today's NBA. Baynes and Theis can adequately hit open 3s (as our 4th or 5th options on offense) for the boost we get from their screens/picks, help on defense, rebounds, tip outs, etc

So now the stance is playing Horford and Baynes together would be a defensive liability? where's the proof? My eyes tell me they are both + defenders that can move their feet and block the shots of smaller guys going to the hoop.
It's not like anyone was covering Barnes all that well last night, right? OR Horford could cover Finney-Smith (career 32% 3pt shooter) who killed us on the offensive boards.

Last nights rotations were head-scratching (Brad deserves some of the blame for this seasons underperformance):
1. The Celtics come off a historic offensive 1st quarter the night before (albeit Atlanta) and then the starting lineup gets changed the next night?
2. We start 5 offensive alphas and then bring in Rozier, Smart, Baynes, and Semi to play together. That's an awful rotation of defense-first players, you can not mesh those four together. Terrible rotational balance.
3. MaMo doesn't need to start, he is thriving as our offensive alpha 6th man. Let him be the #1 option on offense with the 2nd unit. He is playing starters minutes, but in a better situation that utilizes his strengths.
4. Where was Theis? Kleber played 23 minutes, Theis is capable of covering that guy.
5. Playing Rozier with Kyrie is, was and will continue to be a disaster. Yet we continue to see that pairing. Rozier should strictly be used for Kyrie injury insurance at this point, he is not thriving w/ his bench role. Which you astutely pointed out in pre-season and foresaw this problem before Danny/Brad did.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

Rozier needs to catch some DNPs. He honestly looks like he's throwing games. Brad standing on the side court looking stunned while Barrea moseys by Rozier over and over getting easy hoops is seriously aggravating. I recall one good rhythm shot he took last night, the rest of his looks were utter trash. At one point he played 8-9 straight minutes last night where he brought absolutely nothing to the table- only negative play.

 

[Fishy1]

Smart now has a better shooting percentage than Rozier and a better three point shooting percentage than Brown and Hayward. This isn't to say that Smart's offense has been impressive at all but only to speak to the shooting woes of the supporting cast. Tatum and Morris are the only volume 3 shooters above 40%, and Rozier is the next closest at 35% -- but he's been so horrible around the rim whatever value he's adding there is obviously shot.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Last nights rotations were head-scratching (Brad deserves some of the blame for this seasons underperformance):
1. The Celtics come off a historic offensive 1st quarter the night before (albeit Atlanta) and then the starting lineup gets changed the next night?
2. We start 5 offensive alphas and then bring in Rozier, Smart, Baynes, and Semi to play together. That's an awful rotation of defense-first players, you can not mesh those four together. Terrible rotational balance.
* * * *
5. Playing Rozier with Kyrie is, was and will continue to be a disaster. Yet we continue to see that pairing. Rozier should strictly be used for Kyrie injury insurance at this point, he is not thriving w/ his bench role. Which you astutely pointed out in pre-season and foresaw this problem before Danny/Brad did.

With respect to (1), Al didn't play against ATL. Are you really keeping him out of the starting lineup because of one good quarter?

With respect to (2), I wasn't fond of the rotation but TRox is not a "defense-first" player. I wonder if Brad did this to try to get TRoz going.

Also, I didn't know before today that TRoz was questionable yesterday with a knee injury but opted to play.

With respect to #5, if KI is going to get 30+ minutes a night and TRoz 20+ minutes a night, it's going to be difficult not to play them together. And benching TRoz is not going to be the answer. I don't know what is, other than him playing better basketball.

Brad has always been very good at putting guys in positions where they can use their strengths to succeed. Hopefully they start rewarding his trust this season.

 

[TripleOT]

Rozier needs to catch some DNPs. He honestly looks like he's throwing games. Brad standing on the side court looking stunned while Barrea moseys by Rozier over and over getting easy hoops is seriously aggravating. I recall one good rhythm shot he took last night, the rest of his looks were utter trash. At one point he played 8-9 straight minutes last night where he brought absolutely nothing to the table- only negative play.

Does Rozier think he can get out of Boston by blatantly not trying? I know he is an Ainge favorite, but WTF? If the Celtics didn't play him against Dallas, they probably win. He was truly non-competitive on defense, and Dallas went at him almost every possession he was on the floor.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Or maybe Rozier just isn't that good and had a decent 2 month stretch at the perfect time?

 

[BigSoxFan]

Or maybe Rozier just isn't that good and had a decent 2 month stretch at the perfect time?

I wish we knew what we were offered for Rozier. Probably should have pulled the trigger on one of those deals.