I know people poo poo 2018 right now because of the prospect hype machine but I am bullish on 2018 having at least one true stud in the draft. 2018 looks way better than 2017 to me because the top prospects have the requisite size and athletic ability.
Maybe they all flame out but I reallyhope DA holds on to 2018.
I know this was discussed a while back, but looking at it, I think it was a bit overstated. The top-rated high school prospects typically
do end up being impact players in the NBA. I'd be curious to see how this compares to other major sports, but that would be a bit too time consuming, so, for what it's worth, here' the ESPN top 5 recruits (American H.S. seniors) since 2010, followed by other notable guys from that class and where they were ranked by ESPN as HS seniors:
2010: Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger, Kyrie, Brandon Knight, Josh Selby (weak class, a bunch of rotation players in the top 40, but no one particularly notable)
2011: Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond, Austin Rivers, Kidd-Gilchrist, Beal (Rodney Hood #31, Otto Porter #42, Brogdon #73, yeah he's old)
2012: Noel, Shabazz, Isiah Austin, Kaleb Tarcweski
, Kyle Anderson (Steven Adams #6, Smart #10, Gary Harris #11, Rozier #74, Valentine #98)
2013: Wiggins, Jabari, Julius Randle, Aaron Gordon, Andrew Harrison (Embiid #6, James Young #8, LaVine #50, Josh Hart#90)
2014: Okafor, Myles Turner, Cliff Alexander
, Tyus Jones, Mudiay (KAT #9, DAR #13, Winslow #15, Booker #18, Trippy McTedcruzface #21,
2015: Simmons, Labisierre, Ingram, Jaylen, Henry Ellenson (Mostly too early, but Chriss #60)
Out of the 30 top five guys, Tarcweski and Austin (due to Marfan Syndrome) are the only guys who went undrafted and never played in the NBA, and Selby and Harrison are the only guys who went in the second round. Four guys went #1 overall, and another 6 went 2nd or 3rd. Twenty out of the thirty went in the lottery. Only six are not currently rotation players in the NBA, one of those is Ben Simmons and another has Marfan Syndrome. So not a lot of false positives, and Otto Porter at #60 is looking like the biggest false negative out of this group. As far as I can see, Elfrid Payton's the only real impact guy who didn't crack his top 100.
Edit- going back as far as I can find, here's the rest of the top 5s:
2009- Avery Bradley, Derick Favors, Xavier Henry, DeMarcus Cousins, John Wall (Kawhi #56, Middleton, #82)
2008- Brandon Jennings, Samardo Samuels (?), Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holiday, BJ Mullens (Derozan #8, Kemba #14, Draymond #36, Terrelle Pryor, WR #39, Klay #53,
2007- Kevin Love, Eric Gordon, OJ Mayo, Kyle Singler, Derrick Rose (Blake Griffin #18, Harden #21, Evan Turner #49)
Going back further finds more false negatives, with Curry, Westbrook, Jimmy Butler, Isaiah and Gordon Hayward all failing to crack the composite top 100 in their classes.