I agree with your first point, but not the second. Bradley had his strengths and limitations on D, and the Celtics are, overall, a longer and more athletic team than they were last year, which should help on defense.47-35. This squad is going to take a while to gel and they are likely to see a decline in their defense, especially with Bradley gone. That said, I would love to be wrong and have Stevens coach these guys to 53-54 wins.
That's awesome.I think 50 wins and still not good enough to beat Lebron. If IT is healthy and 80% of the player he was in Boston, we are going to be badly outmatched. IT/Smith/Lebron/Crowder/Love is better than our starting five at every position except possibly the point.
You really think JR Smith is better than Marcus Smart or Jaylen Brown? Maybe the latter if you assume no improvement over last year.I think 50 wins and still not good enough to beat Lebron. If IT is healthy and 80% of the player he was in Boston, we are going to be badly outmatched. IT/Smith/Lebron/Crowder/Love is better than our starting five at every position except possibly the point.
I'd take him over Al Horford but I don't think the difference is that big. Love is the superior offensive player and better rebounder but Horford is better on the defensive end. Love was also a pretty good distributor in Minnesota, but he doesn't use that skill set in Cleveland, a la Irving so I'm not really sure Horford has an edge there either. At least in a system that would use the skill set.Love @ the 5 is a layup line.
I really think he is most likely better than Brown. I think Smart is the best of the three and could be by a lot if his improved shooting is real. I cheated a little bit by comparing the Cavs best lineup to our starting lineup.You really think JR Smith is better than Marcus Smart or Jaylen Brown? Maybe the latter if you assume no improvement over last year.
And while I think Jae Crowder will be better than Morris, I doubt it's by that much. At least assuming Morris reverts back to form on 3's and Jae Crowder isn't really a 40% 3 point shooter. Really the first year Jae was any good at it was last season. You really love Jae Crowder though and I'm not very high on him.
If Smart's shooting is for real, do you think that tips the scales in favor of Boston? Thing with Smart, there is a lot of room for improvement. If he reverts to his rookie year and shoots .335 from 3, he's highly valuable. If he shoots .380-.390, he's closer to LeBron James than JR Smith. That's a slight exaggeration, but Smart would move into another stratosphere of player with an actual 3 point shot.I really think he is most likely better than Brown. I think Smart is the best of the three and could be by a lot if his improved shooting is real. I cheated a little bit by comparing the Cavs best lineup to our starting lineup.
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Unless you match up with Morris with LBJ and realize that Smith isn't starting; then 80% of IT is not better than Kyrie; Crowder is not better than Hayward; Wade is not better than JB; and Love is not better at the 5 than Al.If IT is healthy and 80% of the player he was in Boston, we are going to be badly outmatched. IT/Smith/Lebron/Crowder/Love is better than our starting five at every position except possibly the point.
You are arguing for something that wasn't going to happen once Crowder made it known he wanted to be traded. Once the Cleveland deal was completed he called it a great day for his basketball career. Jae had a limited role here this season, didn't want to be here and now both parties are happy. Let it go.I really think he is most likely better than Brown. I think Smart is the best of the three and could be by a lot if his improved shooting is real. I cheated a little bit by comparing the Cavs best lineup to our starting lineup.
Jae is an all around better player than Marcus Morris and it's not particularly close. There is basically no aspect of the game he doesn't perform better at. His career TS% is .037 higher. His career rebound rate is 0.2% higher. Morris leads in assists by 0.2% but turns the ball over at a 0.9% higher rate. His defensive stats are much better with a 2.2% and 1.1% steal and block rate compared to 1.4% and 0.7%. All of this adds up to a career BPM difference of 1.3 v. -0.4, which is a very significant gap. As we all now, RPM also agrees that the gap is quite large between the two.
Just as a note, I use career stats to avoid any concerns about overweighting Crowder's great shooting year and to balance out any impact Drummond had on Morris's rebounding. The gap has been bigger the last 2 years as Crowder has gotten better and Morris has basically stayed the same.
No he isn't. He's arguing Jae Crowder is better than Marcus Morris, not that Jae Crowder should still be on the team.You are arguing for something that wasn't going to happen once Crowder made it known he wanted to be traded. Once the Cleveland deal was completed he called it a great day for his basketball career. Jae had a limited role here this season, didn't want to be here and now both parties are happy. Let it go.
Sure, he's marginally better and the role available in Boston this year for either is minimal and not likely to be noticeable at all.No he isn't. He's arguing Jae Crowder is better than Marcus Morris, not that Jae Crowder should still be on the team.
And that was my argument. I could see a scenario where Morris is actually a better fit than Jae since he is going from a good rebounding team to a poor one and from a team where Al Horford would qualify as their best 3 point shooter to a team with Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving. His rebounding rates should 'rebound' as well as his 3 point %. Some of that is also because he jumped from 22 minutes to 34, but he should be used in a more limited role this year. Credit to Jae Crowder there, where he didn't miss a step with an increase in minutes.Sure, he's marginally better and the role available in Boston this year for either is minimal and not likely to be noticeable at all.
I know it's only highlights and I haven't seen full games, but their passing in the preseason with Horford, Irving and Hayward on the floor seemed to be pretty in sync. Are you more worried about the bench players? Or just the team in general?47-35. This squad is going to take a while to gel and they are likely to see a decline in their defense, especially with Bradley gone. That said, I would love to be wrong and have Stevens coach these guys to 53-54 wins.
I'm not rehashing the debate as to Crowder's value to the Celtics. I'm arguing the Cavs are still better and that a not insignificant part of that is how much better Crowder is than Morris.Sure, he's marginally better and the role available in Boston this year for either is minimal and not likely to be noticeable at all.
Not as a 4, though. That was a problem for Boston. Crowder's value was replaced when they signed Hayward, and he struggles guarding longer players. Morris does not.I'm not rehashing the debate as to Crowder's value to the Celtics. I'm arguing the Cavs are still better and that a not insignificant part of that is how much better Crowder is than Morris.
It can be both too. We can be a worse regular season team yet a better playoff team. The Isaiah subtraction in the regular season coupled with Kyrie's upgrade come post-season can account for this in itself.For reference, Last year's Celtics finished 53-29 with the number 1 seed in the East.I can't determine whether this team is any better or worse than last year's, so I' go with 53-29 and a ECF loss.
Pythag record is a typically a more predictive baseline, so if you think this team is about the same level as last year's, they should end up around 49-33.For reference, Last year's Celtics finished 53-29 with the number 1 seed in the East.I can't determine whether this team is any better or worse than last year's, so I' go with 53-29 and a ECF loss.
With 7:24 left in the second the Celts led 34-31 and Kyrie and Al came back into the game for Hayward and Yabu. From that point the run was 22-7 and honestly I had to look up most of the points the Hornets scored. I for one am going to enjoy some of the beatings this team administers between first unit scoring binges and 2nd unit defensive clamp downs.
I wanted to pull these two quotes in from the last game of the preseason. I've been surprised at how "together" this team looks already. I think with good health this team is a legit 1 seed in the East that will absolutely wax some teams in the regular season. Jump out with the first unit and then put the clamps on with the second then push the lead out further with the first unit. I think, unlike last season when it seemed every game was a life and death struggle to the end, we will put teams away early and get Geno time on a regular basis at home and the equivalent (resting the starters I guess) on the road.Also I can't wait to see teams fall behind and their best players change over to "get mine" mode when they realize that they aren't winning tonight. I think I just saw Kemba's light switch on a bit early but it is the preseason so I won't fault him on it too much.
I am not worried per se. I simply think chemistry takes time to build and the Cs have all new rotations too. Perhaps a lot of these mid 50 win forecasts are correct and Stevens will get the team firing on all cylinders in short order.I know it's only highlights and I haven't seen full games, but their passing in the preseason with Horford, Irving and Hayward on the floor seemed to be pretty in sync. Are you more worried about the bench players? Or just the team in general?