A situation to watch.....Kyle Lowry hurt the arch of his foot and needed an MRI.
View: https://twitter.com/BrianTRobb/status/1297712599560327173
View: https://twitter.com/BrianTRobb/status/1297712599560327173
Personally, I think it favors Boston. Toronto absolutely needs Lowry to beat the Celtics.If Lowry and Hayward are both out for the series who is the favored team?
Celtics pretty clearly imo.If Lowry and Hayward are both out for the series who is the favored team?
Boston in a big way. I think it's a pick em with Hayward out and Lowry in.If Lowry and Hayward are both out for the series who is the favored team?
I think Miami is going to give Milwaukee fits next series. Let's see if they make it beyond them.Celtics pretty clearly imo.
As it is, I'll say Celtics in 6. Healthy Kemba makes a way bigger difference than people think, and Brown will take away a lot of Siakam's mismatch advantage on offense.
This isn't a homer thing: I am going to pick Milwaukee in 5-6 if that series happens.
Yeah, I mean that's obviously the dream scenario. I'm picking Bucks in 5 there, however.I think Miami is going to give Milwaukee fits next series. Let's see if they make it beyond them.
That'd be nice, but this Raptors team (minus Lowry) has a lot more weapons than last year's Pacers team (minus Oladipo). The Pacers had just one player who averaged 15+ ppg (Bogdanovic at 18.0), the Raptors have four (Siakam at 22.9, VanVleet at 17.6, Powell at 16.0 and Ibaka at 15.4). Losing Lowry tips the scales in the Celtics favor without a doubt, but nowhere near the Indy series last year imo.Celtics in 5 if no Lowry. There’s just not any offense left there. This would be like Pacers-Celtics 2019.
Powell and Ibaka are PPG totals, not serious playoff offensive weapons.That'd be nice, but this Raptors team (minus Lowry) has a lot more weapons than last year's Pacers team (minus Oladipo). The Pacers had just one player who averaged 15+ ppg (Bogdanovic at 18.0), the Raptors have four (Siakam at 22.9, VanVleet at 17.6, Powell at 16.0 and Ibaka at 15.4). Losing Lowry tips the scales in the Celtics favor without a doubt, but nowhere near the Indy series last year imo.
I'm not sure what this means, although I agree they aren't serious playoff offensive weapons. However, both VanVleet and Siakam are definitely serious playoff offensive weapons, far more than Bogdanovic last year.Powell and Ibaka are PPG totals, not serious playoff offensive weapons.
If you keep Siakam from scoring in transition, he is a pretty poor scorer in the halfcourt. His numbers and efficiency has gotten worse as the season has gone on. Very good player, but absolutely not a real number one scorer.I'm not sure what this means, although I agree they aren't serious playoff offensive weapons. However, both VanVleet and Siakam are definitely serious playoff offensive weapons, far more than Bogdanovic last year.
Sure, but look at what the on-court matchups were if they had Lowry and if they don't. That's a huge loss.I'm not sure what this means, although I agree they aren't serious playoff offensive weapons. However, both VanVleet and Siakam are definitely serious playoff offensive weapons, far more than Bogdanovic last year.
All I meant is that PPG in the teens don’t tell you much about a guy’s ability to stress defenses.I'm not sure what this means, although I agree they aren't serious playoff offensive weapons. However, both VanVleet and Siakam are definitely serious playoff offensive weapons, far more than Bogdanovic last year.
Sure, but look at what the on-court matchups were if they had Lowry and if they don't. That's a huge loss.
Points well taken. I think my issue is that the inability of last year's Indy team to score without Oladipo is being underestimated here (as opposed to this year's Toronto team having good scorers without Lowry), but no argument from me on the above.All I meant is that PPG in the teens don’t tell you much about a guy’s ability to stress defenses.
They compete and Nurse is a great coach. However, they were mediocre/poor against good teams this year per Cleaning the Glass iirc, which I think is indicative of what to expect in a playoff series sans Lowry.Points well taken. I think my issue is that the inability of last year's Indy team to score without Oladipo is being underestimated here (as opposed to this year's Toronto team having good scorers without Lowry), but no argument from me on the above.
I will note that the Raptors still went 12-2 in games that Lowry missed (including 9-2 against eventual playoff teams), although nearly all of these were way November/December. The Raptors have been excellent all season long at covering when guys have missed time. Considering their success without Kawhi, succeeding without their best players may as well be the theme of the 2019-2020 Raptors.
You are seriously underrating VanVleet who is just as important to the Raptors as Lowry. He’s been the best player on the floor for the Raptors in so many of these bubble games. Powell took over two of the Nets games as well. Granted, the Celtics closeouts will be tighter and the pace slower but you can’t scoff at someone coming off a 76% eFG series.Celtics in 5 if no Lowry. There’s just not any offense left there. This would be like Pacers-Celtics 2019.
TL played 12 minutes in Game 1, was super hyped up and plus Embiid is a horrible match-up for him (still managed to have 6 rebounds). IIRC, his Game 2 minutes were limited to garbage time. He did not play in Game 3 and had a cameo appearance in Game 4.Time Lord took a huge step backward in the Philly series. Not sure the C's can beat Toronto without at least a modest contribution from him.
Agree with mauf 100%. The Celtics can still beat Toronto, but the depth is definitely an issue. I think Steven's will be able to mix and match better than most coaches would, but the truth is that he is going to have to give minutes to guys that shouldn't be playing in the NBA playoffs. Some teams don't have to do that.
Just to put some (albeit imperfect) regular season PER numbers to generally show what's going on.
Wanamaker 12.85
G Williams 7.91
Ojeleye 7.71
Langford 5.38
The rest of the rotation guys are all higher than that, some much higher of course. Every team has a declining slope as you get deeper and deeper into the bench. But there really is a HUGE cliff after Wanamaker, more severe than most teams have within the rotation. These guys are either developmental projects or scrubs at this point. You can mix and match all you want, but in the end they are just not good right now.
The major issues will come up with any foul trouble or god forbid another injury. At this point, I think the firepower is still there to win the series.
This sort of analysis is tough because on its surface, a stat like PER or even PIPM doesn't capture things like match-up efficiency etc nor do any of this seasons stats account for the fact that guys like Van Vleet or Brown and many other younger players appear to have improved their play since the season stopped.And just for comparison, the lowest regular season PER of any of the Toronto players getting legit minutes in the playoffs is Marc Gasol at 11.78
It has also been discussed by Raptors players. I imagine it would be a joint decision between the two teams.Apparently there is talk of a boycott of playing on Thursday as stated by Marcus Smart.
View: https://twitter.com/JaredWeissNBA/status/1298333097835089927
I also don't mean to be indelicate, but with Lowry day to day, can they perhaps look towards starting the boycott on Friday or perhaps next Tuesday?I don't mean to be indelicate, but did the NBA really think that wearing jerseys with messages was going to end police brutality against minorities? Or that boycotting the games will now do that?
Or maybe I'm just not sure what "messages aren't getting across" means to them.
This isn't directed at you but imo, this is time for people outside of groups who are affected to listen and support. If they want to boycott the game, so be it - even if there is no immediate impact from doing so. This is entirely their decision and the league will likely support them. NBA fans should lend support as well.What exactly would be the objective? It draws attention to the issue, certainly, but there is already a lot of attention on the issue. Boycotts/strikes are most effective when you are able to hold out until some specific action is taken. I'm assuming they would plan to play again on Saturday, so what would really be achieved?
If nothing else, it draws attention to the issue. Back in March, the NBA woke up America by postponing their season due to COVID-19. America doesn't exactly need that same awakening here, but people take notice when one of the major leagues takes action like this.What exactly would be the objective? It draws attention to the issue, certainly, but there is already a lot of attention on the issue. Boycotts/strikes are most effective when you are able to hold out until some specific action is taken. I'm assuming they would plan to play again on Saturday, so what would really be achieved?
Fred VanVleet has an answer to this:I don't mean to be indelicate, but did the NBA really think that wearing jerseys with messages was going to end police brutality against minorities? Or that boycotting the games will now do that?
Or maybe I'm just not sure what "messages aren't getting across" means to them.
Right, so ultimately this wouldn't be a "boycott" at all but rather a player-driven joint decision to postpone one or more games. Which I have no issue with, but the "boycott" language is inaccurate in that respect and makes it seem like the league is forcing the games to go forward and the players are refusing to participate.This isn't directed at you but imo, this is time for people outside of groups who are affected to listen and support. If they want to boycott the game, so be it - even if there is no immediate impact from doing so. This is entirely their decision and the league will likely support them. NBA fans should lend support as well.
Cross posting from the Hayward thread:
This sort of analysis is tough because on its surface, a stat like PER or even PIPM doesn't capture things like match-up efficiency etc nor do any of this seasons stats account for the fact that guys like Van Vleet or Brown and many other younger players appear to have improved their play since the season stopped.
That said, your observation about the relative weakness of the Celtics bench feels spot on. For example, using PIPM (again, I am sorry, LondonSox), the Celtics have four players who are as bad or significantly worse than the Raptors second lowest ranked player, Matt Thomas -Langford, Wanamaker, Semi and Edwards. The last two are particularly odious using that metric but as you point out, Stevens appears to be effective at optimizing Ojeleye's usage in ways that likely aren't being accurately captured in the available data.
The mitigating factor for Boston here is that, by the numbers, they have better top end talent and more of it.
I agree--I don't think NBA is going to pick a fight with them by acting as if it is a wildcat strike. If they did so (and morons like Goodell and quite possibly Manfred might in fact do so) I expect they would be rewarded with Lebron and Chris Paul announcing that the entire NBAPA was now joining the strike within hours.This isn't directed at you but imo, this is time for people outside of groups who are affected to listen and support. If they want to boycott the game, so be it - even if there is no immediate impact from doing so. This is entirely their decision and the league will likely support them. NBA fans should lend support as well.