To me, much of this is wrong — other than the Pels likely turning it down (less because of package, more because they’re really unlikely to decide to trade Davis... yet).
This is going to be long but I'm going to take this point by point.
A) Celts ~~ depth doesn’t win Championships in the NBA, stars do.
Consolidating good players / assets for a great one is what Ainge lives for. It’s what they did to get Allen. It’s what they did to get Garnett. It’s what they did to get Kyrie. Ainge would presumably would be VERY happy to do it again for an even more dominant player in Davis.
In saying Davis improves their chances this year you are vastly overestimating the upgrade from Davis to Horford and underestimating the downgrade from Brown to whoever would take his minutes, even disregarding the impact on team chemistry and the difficulty of integrating a new player on the fly midseason. Also not sure why you think Kyrie/Davis/Tatum has a better chance of knocking off the Warriors this year than Kyrie/Horford/Tatum/Brown; both are extreme longshots.
The majority of Cs fans believed we shouldn’t trade Al Jefferson for KG. Sound right? Yet Davis is far younger than KG, and Horford’s on the Back 9. Don’t let allegiance cloud your objectivity.
The number of Cs fans that thought Al Jefferson shouldn't be traded for KG is much closer to 0 than a majority.
As for the comment about waiting for Hayward to be healthy, it’s fan nonsense. Hayward success is not contingent on Horford or Brown. Ainge will make deals that are worth doing when they’re available, not when Hayward feels better.
The point is not that Hayward's success is contingent on Horford or Brown, the point is that the Cs are on the verge of putting together a dominant team just by standing pat. They have a reasonable chance of entering the playoffs as Eastern Conference favorites without Hayward, and will almost certainly enter next season as prohibitive favorites to reach the Finals. You want them to use all of their valuable future draft capital outside of the Memphis pick, plus Jaylen Brown, for the marginal upgrade from Horford to Davis, plus think a rebuilding team is going to trade a lottery pick for Horford. I think you need to reexamine what nonsense means. It is shortsighted to use the vast majority of your tradeable assets to marginally upgrade a roster that in all likelihood will already be good enough to challenge for a title soon.
B) Pels ~~ You call the Lakers Pick a “top 5 Pick in on of the next two drafts”, then look too degrade it soon thereafter. It’s an excellent asset.
It is an excellent asset, which comes with a real downside risk of turning into Philly's 2019 first rounder. The Celtics are fine accepting that downside because of their situation. The Pelicans would never take on that risk as one of the centerpieces in the return for Davis, especially with the trade market set by the returns for one year of Butler and George. It's not the upside of the asset that the Pelicans would object to, it's the uncertainty involved. This applies to the proposed Mavs pick as well.
And I think you’re wrong about Cousins. Look at the few teams with cap space, then tell me who is giving him the $$$ he wants (Hint: nobody). He’s just as likely
To resign if Davis is gone.
I think there's a good chance he ends up on the Lakers, especially if they strike out on LeBron/George and need to make a splash.
While we’re on the Pels, I understand Noel’s value — he’s a salary fill in this deal.
BUT, he’s a talent young player who needs a legit rotation spot. And if he’s well liked by NO when he gets there? Market for the guy will always be limited... he could be a low cost resign on a young team. Point is: he’s a lot more interesting filler than most guys, which is why they’d prefer him to McBuckets.
He also has a no trade, which probably wouldn't be an issue given his situation in Dallas, but he may prefer to push for a deal to a team without a star that plays his position. Plus he doesn't come with Bird Rights, so if he does well the Pelicans can't afford him to keep him and if he does poorly they don't want him.
C) Mavs ~~ based on your comments, I don’t think you really get Cuban. Or Rick Carlisle. I believe they’d think long and hard about giving up a pick between 7-12 in this or next year’s draft for a locked in Horford.
Based on your comments I think there's a long list of things you don't really get. Horford is locked in for next season only, the Mavs aren't giving up any pick in this year's stacked draft for him while they're rebuilding and New Orleans isn't going to accept a pick that might not convey for 3 years.
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Summary: NOP won’t trade Davis until this summer at the absolute earliest — if ever — anyway... which makes this blog fodder. But I submit this is a trade that might benefit all 3 teams. Remember this Cs would still have the DPE to use, and Morris to trade (can’t wait), this deals.
The bolded is likely the only thing correct in your post. You want New Orleans to trade one of the most valuable players in the game for Jaylen Brown, a potential non-lottery pick in 2019 (LA/SAC/PHI), a Mavs pick potentially 3 years in the future (depending on the protections) and a non-lottery pick in 2019 or 2020. There is no chance that would be the best offer on the table if Davis were on the auction block.
The whole proposal revolves around Dallas being interested in giving up their own first rounder anytime in the next few years to at most have Horford through next season when they have no chance of being good, after which he'd decline his player option and go to a contender. This is also not realistic.
You want Boston to empty the war chest (minus Tatum and the Memphis pick) for Davis when they have no immediate need to do so and have the luxury of being patient to determine if they already have a title contender as is. Would I rather have Davis over Horford for the next 5-6 years? Absolutely. Is the difference, especially in the short term, worth the opportunity cost of trading almost all of their trade assets to make it happen? Absolutely not.