Celtics vs Da Culture - Round 1 (FIGHT!)
- Thread starter Ed Hillel
- Start date
I'm prepared for them to lose a game or two or even struggle with Miami overall. I get that many others are not but if you are thinking sweep or some variation thereof and don't get what you want, your tears will just be salty. Miami always plays tough and they tend to give the Celtics all they can handle regardless of who is healthy on their roster.
Folks will do whatever they want but why bother predicting utter domination or anything like that if its only going to make you miserable in a few days? This is going to a battle so let's just be prepared. Or not.
Folks will do whatever they want but why bother predicting utter domination or anything like that if its only going to make you miserable in a few days? This is going to a battle so let's just be prepared. Or not.
Celts are winning this series. I think it is likely they sweep. I won’t be miserable either way.
Go Celts.
I’m giving them one shitty game, but expecting a gentleman’s sweep. They were 4-0 against Miami this season, have home court, and have the 5 best players in the series. I’ll repeat that: They have the 5 best players in the series. That Pirate Guy will probably get hot one game and will Miami to a Disney-esque feel good win, but then their dreams must be crushed.
I also have Celtics in 5.
Boston offense vs. Miami defense will be a back-and-forth battle. Spolestra will want to muck things up, throw a lot of looks at us and vary the defense to keep the C's off-balance. There will be quarters where it clicks on offense and then quarters where it's really frustrating and ragged. As the numbers in the Celtics Chronicle write-up someone posted in the other thread suggest, Boston should be able to really exploit Miami in the short mid-range game with JT, JB and KP, so will be interesting to see how steadily they prioritize that versus jacking threes.
The reason I have it only going 5 max is that I just don't see where Miami's half-court offense is going to come from. Without Butler to draw help, it's really only Tyler Herro who can create offense. He's no Brunson, and we have two of the best defensive guards in the league. They will run a lot of stuff with Bam around the foul line to generate short mid-range jump shots, but we have the length to contest these shots. So: I don't see how they're going to score consistently on offense unless something pretty crazy happens. I expect we can even survive a couple games with cold shooting from 3 and still win, as long as it doesn't degenerate into a complete turnover fest.
Boston offense vs. Miami defense will be a back-and-forth battle. Spolestra will want to muck things up, throw a lot of looks at us and vary the defense to keep the C's off-balance. There will be quarters where it clicks on offense and then quarters where it's really frustrating and ragged. As the numbers in the Celtics Chronicle write-up someone posted in the other thread suggest, Boston should be able to really exploit Miami in the short mid-range game with JT, JB and KP, so will be interesting to see how steadily they prioritize that versus jacking threes.
The reason I have it only going 5 max is that I just don't see where Miami's half-court offense is going to come from. Without Butler to draw help, it's really only Tyler Herro who can create offense. He's no Brunson, and we have two of the best defensive guards in the league. They will run a lot of stuff with Bam around the foul line to generate short mid-range jump shots, but we have the length to contest these shots. So: I don't see how they're going to score consistently on offense unless something pretty crazy happens. I expect we can even survive a couple games with cold shooting from 3 and still win, as long as it doesn't degenerate into a complete turnover fest.
To me this is the ideal first round opponent. Spo will show every conceivable strategy to beat the Celtics but doesn't really have the horses to get it done without Jimmy and Rozier. I'm not saying that the Celtics can't lose this series, but when they win, they'll be a little more prepared for whatever gameplans gets thrown at them for the rest of the playoffs.
Plus, after last year, it'll be a little sweeter when we win it all if we had to go through Miami.
Plus, after last year, it'll be a little sweeter when we win it all if we had to go through Miami.
5 games seems like the median outcome, given the talent advantage of the Celtics roster vs Miami’s sans Jimmy. I will be irritated if this series goes to a 7th game.
I'll be irritated if it goes 6 to be honest. I want to see a version of the Celts that doesn't play with their food. If it goes to a 6th game, it means they either dropped game 5 at home with a chance to close it out, or somehow split the first 4 games.
I would also pick the Celtics in five. I can see Miami taking a game on their home court. Three-point variance is a bitch, and in the playoffs in the recent past it seems to favor Miami.
If the extremely unlikely happens -- if the Celtics say lose this in seven -- I think that might be the end of Joe Mazzulla era. The Celtics clearly have the better talent, and so the only really significant X factor going into this series is the coaching. If Joe was smart, he's been prepping the Celtics for Miami since Philly won -- it doesn't make sense to waste time prepping for Chicago, since the Celtics could have handled the Bulls easily. Miami will try to get physical; they will run that flex zone a lot; they will try to disrupt the passing lanes (no lazy perimeter passes, guys); they will collapse on players driving to the basket.
I'll be watching the Celtics turnovers closely. If the Celtics get knocked off their stride, and get sloppy with the ball, the game could get tight pretty fast. This may seem radical, but if they have turnover issues, I would favor giving Pritchard (a low-turnover point guard) some run to try to settle the offense. Butler hunts Pritchard the most effectively on the Heat, so he's the biggest matchup threat to our smallish reserve point guard, but we won't see Butler this series, it appears.
This will be an interesting test, though without Butler, the Heat definitely have their backs to the wall. The Celtics can win pretty; they need to show they can win ugly too.
If the extremely unlikely happens -- if the Celtics say lose this in seven -- I think that might be the end of Joe Mazzulla era. The Celtics clearly have the better talent, and so the only really significant X factor going into this series is the coaching. If Joe was smart, he's been prepping the Celtics for Miami since Philly won -- it doesn't make sense to waste time prepping for Chicago, since the Celtics could have handled the Bulls easily. Miami will try to get physical; they will run that flex zone a lot; they will try to disrupt the passing lanes (no lazy perimeter passes, guys); they will collapse on players driving to the basket.
I'll be watching the Celtics turnovers closely. If the Celtics get knocked off their stride, and get sloppy with the ball, the game could get tight pretty fast. This may seem radical, but if they have turnover issues, I would favor giving Pritchard (a low-turnover point guard) some run to try to settle the offense. Butler hunts Pritchard the most effectively on the Heat, so he's the biggest matchup threat to our smallish reserve point guard, but we won't see Butler this series, it appears.
This will be an interesting test, though without Butler, the Heat definitely have their backs to the wall. The Celtics can win pretty; they need to show they can win ugly too.
Miami worries me more than Chicago would have. Spoelstra is great, the playoffs are different, and the Heat will find ways to attack Celtics weaknesses. Still, I'll be shocked if the Celtics lose or if the series goes to a 7th game. This year I just don't think the Heat have the firepower.
I disagree. I think if they lose this series in disappinting fashion, it won't be Mazzulla who goes, it will much more likely be Brown. We'll be at 3 different iterations of Tatum/Brown teams not getting it done, and at that point I don't think they will want to try a 4th.
My hunch is that their motivation and specific Miami preparation are very high. They have looked extra motivated in every Miami game this year. I don't think motivation will be an issue at all. The zone might, but even there I think they know what to do about it.
My only fear is that they are too motivated / hyped up and it backfires and they play tight, then Miami steals one of the first two games in Boston, and all of a sudden we have a rock fight on our hands.
This series is going to tell us a lot about the team and its mentality. I’m reminded of the Brooklyn series two years ago when there was a lot of trepidation about facing KD and Kyrie and the C’s just went out and took care of business.
To me, the best shot Miami has of winning a game is in Game 1. Celtics have been sleepwalking for a couple weeks because everything was already clinched and Miami is in playoff mode. If the Celtics come out properly motivated, they should sweep this. If not, then we'll have an annoying series on our hands.
Jeezus, the Celtics are not losing this series. They have been waiting for the postseason all year. I don’t see any way that the Celts don’t kick the shit out of the Heat. I’ll be shocked if the Heat can win a single game.
Prepare yourselves to watch a serious, talented, motivated well above average basketball team this postseason. They may not win it all but they are gonna shit all over the Heat.
And if they don’t, SamRayNot will eat……
Prepare yourselves to watch a serious, talented, motivated well above average basketball team this postseason. They may not win it all but they are gonna shit all over the Heat.
And if they don’t, SamRayNot will eat……
Yeah if MIA scores more than 110 in any game that means something has gone horribly wrong. Either they are unconscious from 3P or (more likely) BOS is throwing the ball all over the gym. There is not a single guy on MIA who needs to be double-teamed or can break down a defense; MIA's shooters should have hands in their faces all series.
Maybe MIA can keep BOS from scoring 120 but it should be a good, physical series but BOS should win handily. The physical part will help KP understand what the playoffs are like when he's a focal point.
Karalis mentioned that he thought the Cs players really wanted MIA to show the world this is not last year's team (or the year before that). Hopefully he's correct about this.
Is KP going to be a focal point of the defense though? With Tatum/Brown, they can't key on KP unless they want one of the other two to go off. I think KP will have his chance to do some damage being the 3rd option.
The key to KP is that he keeps Bam from doing Bam things as he is the only one with the size to match up with him. He has to focus on that assignment rather than playing team defense.
So, those first three games last year....
Game 1: Miami 123-116. Tatum (30 pts on .687 ts%) was very good. The Celtics were 10/29 from 3 (34.5 %) and the Heat were 16/31 (51.6%) including 6/9 in their 46 point third quarter when they took over the game. Butler scored 35.
Game 2: Miami 111-105. Tatum was very good. (34 points on .672). Celtics got outscored 36-22 in the fourth quarter, shot 29% from three including a second straight 1-7 game from Brown and 1-8 in the fourth quarter. Heat were 35% from 3. Butler with 27.
Game 3: Miami 128-102. Tatum was bad but Butler was nothing special. Celtics were 11/42 (26%) from 3 and Heat were 19/35 (54%) from 3. Heat with only 9 turnovers.
Brown at this point in the series was 2-21 from 3. Also at this point in the series Boston was 31/106 (29%) 3P% and Miami was 44/92 (48%) 3P%. The point differential in the series was at 39.
I know nothing, but chalking that all up to shooters luck or whatever seems like a way to make history repeat itself. The Celtics have to get good looks from good shooters from 3, and they need to have a plan B if those get taken away. And they can't let the Heat or anyone shoot 50%+ from three. That was terrible.
Game 1: Miami 123-116. Tatum (30 pts on .687 ts%) was very good. The Celtics were 10/29 from 3 (34.5 %) and the Heat were 16/31 (51.6%) including 6/9 in their 46 point third quarter when they took over the game. Butler scored 35.
Game 2: Miami 111-105. Tatum was very good. (34 points on .672). Celtics got outscored 36-22 in the fourth quarter, shot 29% from three including a second straight 1-7 game from Brown and 1-8 in the fourth quarter. Heat were 35% from 3. Butler with 27.
Game 3: Miami 128-102. Tatum was bad but Butler was nothing special. Celtics were 11/42 (26%) from 3 and Heat were 19/35 (54%) from 3. Heat with only 9 turnovers.
Brown at this point in the series was 2-21 from 3. Also at this point in the series Boston was 31/106 (29%) 3P% and Miami was 44/92 (48%) 3P%. The point differential in the series was at 39.
I know nothing, but chalking that all up to shooters luck or whatever seems like a way to make history repeat itself. The Celtics have to get good looks from good shooters from 3, and they need to have a plan B if those get taken away. And they can't let the Heat or anyone shoot 50%+ from three. That was terrible.
I just don’t see a Celtics weakness the Heat are equipped to attack. This year’s offense laughs at the zone. The C’s toughest adversary in this series is 3-point variance - who on the Heat still has a soul to sell to the devil for a Caleb Martin shooting series?
Even with good defensive guards we have at times struggled with quick guards like Hierro. Not that I think he’s much to be feared but he’s absolutely a player who can command a double. Their coaching is good and they can do things to make Hauser and PP less playable as they know we generally give the switch and they’re willing to run their offense through one guy every time down in iso in order to force those matchups. Without Butler and Rozier it would be an absolute disaster to lose this but we don’t really run a much different approach to last seasons offense and they know how to muck up what we do out of their zone defense as well. As with all things with this version of the Celtics it will come down to our ability to shoot the 3 consistently, I agree with that
Draft Kings +105 on a Celtic sweep. So its basically a coin toss
The C's will be good if they pick up physical & high-energy defense from the jump.
If they are sitting back under the 3pt line it will be a struggle
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ilwjgUjMiwA
The C's will be good if they pick up physical & high-energy defense from the jump.
If they are sitting back under the 3pt line it will be a struggle
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ilwjgUjMiwA
Facts not in evidence regarding the bolded. With KP and Jrue instead of Grant and Smart, this season's Celtics offense >>>>> last season's.
They have better talent in these positions. I’m saying we still seem to be running the same offensive sets. We occasionally remember Porzingis is really good and work off him in the post but generally I think Miami is really well versed on what our offensive approach will be. Agree though that we have much better players in those minutes
Tillman might be very legit X factor (sorry) against Bam. The Grizz beat the Heat back in January and in a small sample size Tillman held his own when they were both on the court at the same time. Here’s the plus-minus graph from that game.
Not the focal point, a focal point. KP is going to get mauled when he posts up; it will be a good introduction to playoff basketball
Exactly. It's not that Spoelstra beats everyone: he's beaten the Tatum/Brown/Smart core more than he should have.
I think that, if they lose, they try to turn Brown and stuff into an upgrade or reconfiguration.
That said, I pick Celtics in 5. Could go 4 or 6 with shooting variance.
let’s not forget that the Heat were the 8 seed last year after barely getting in….however, they don’t have Butler.
if this series goes to 6 I will be disappointed. There’s an absolutely massive talent gap between these two teams
if they lose, everything is on the table. Literally everything. Tatum is unlikely but I wouldn’t even rule that out. Coaching change and Brown gone are prohably the two most likely
Yeah.. Miami being the 8 seed is basically all that’s the same as last year at this point.
Outside of injury, foul trouble, or blowouts, I’d be surprised to see Tillman get much run in this series.
Why are we talking about losing this series? We added KP and Jrue in the last year and they lost Butler, Strus, and Vincent. I get that last year was traumatic but come on… have some faith in this 64 win team
PTSD plus ‘anything can happen’
But there is no plausible reason to expect a series loss.
I don’t think anyone seriously thinks they could lose this series. Just more that it could be harder than it should be.